climate resilient infrastructure
TRANSCRIPT
Climate Resilient Infrastructure
Outline
1. Applying climate change science
2. Impacts to infrastructure
3. Adaptation solutions
4. Decision making support
Climate Resilient Infrastructure
Applying Climate Change Science
Climate Change Recent Trends
Climate Resilient Infrastructure
Why do we need climate models?
Climate Resilient Infrastructure
Ocean Atmosphere coupled General Circulation Models
Climate Resilient Infrastructure
Increase in MeanP
roba
bilit
y of
occ
urre
nce
Number of days with maximum temperature Extremes(# days)
Cold Average Hot
Now
Cold Hot
Climate Resilient Infrastructure
Increase in Mean2030
Climate Resilient Infrastructure
Pro
babi
lity
of o
ccur
renc
e
Number of days with maximum temperature Extremes(# days)
Cold Average HotCold Hot
Increase in Mean2070
Pro
babi
lity
of o
ccur
renc
e
Number of days with maximum temperature Extremes(# days)
Cold Average HotCold Hot
Climate Resilient Infrastructure
Climate Change Impacts
• Extreme Events
• Degradation of Materials
• Resource Demand
• Health Impacts
• Long Term Impacts
Climate Resilient Infrastructure
Observed Changes and Local Knowledge
East Arhnem Land Climate Change Risk Assessment
Climate Resilient Infrastructure
Climate Change in the Pacific
Link to 2min DVD on Dept Climate Change website
Climate Resilient Infrastructure
Impacts to Infrastructure
Sensitivity of Materials to Climate Change Impacts
Material CO2 Cyclones & Storms
Sea Level Rise
Extreme Rainfall
& Floods
Annual & Max Temp
UV Bushfire Drought
Concrete M H H M M L M L-M
Metals L H H M M L H L
Mortar L M M M L L M H
Timber L M M M-H M L E L-M
Coatings L M L M M H E L
Polymers L M L L M H E L
L LowM ModerateH HighE Extreme
Climate Resilient Infrastructure
40% of Economic Climate Impacts are to Infrastructure
Infrastructure Impacted in a Developed Country
• Buildings
• Electricity networks
• Water infrastructure
• Ports
• Roads and bridges
• Communications
The economic impact to Developing Countries?
Climate Resilient Infrastructure
• World Heritage – natural assets
• Population - 80% Cocos Malay
• Remote - middle of the Indian Ocean
Cocos (Keeling) Islands - Climate Risk Assessment
Climate Resilient Infrastructure
12/10/2010Presentation Title Page 17
Risk to Infrastructure and Settlement
• Loss of buildings and facilities
• New port development
• Impacts to roads and airport
• Water security – island water lens
• Power security – diesel supply
• Emergency evacuation
• Heat waves – mental health
• Loss of significant food species
Climate Change Risk Assessment for the Cocos (Keeling) Islands
Climate Resilient Infrastructure
Infrastructure at Risk and Re-settlement
Proposed Re-settlement
Home Island
Home Island
Climate Resilient Infrastructure
Adaptation Solutions
Sustainable infrastructure Early intervention is the best approach for managing climate risk
Adapting to Climate Change
Decreasing ability to influence
• Planning
• Concept Development
• Design and Implementation
• Monitoring and Evaluation
USAID and Partner Lead Projects
Page 22
Integrating Climate Change into the Project Cycle
Bridge Failure, December 2, 2006 (Bihar, India)
What are your Design Options?
• Adjust Design Standards & Guidelines
• Materials and Technology Selection
• Adjusting Maintenance Regime
• Reposition, Built in Mobility, Protection and Accept Loss
Melbourne, Hail Storm, April 2010
Climate Resilient Infrastructure
Decision Making Support
Decision support for adaptation
Infrastructure Operators
• Which assets are at risk
• Critical infrastructure services
• Support to vulnerable areas
Sanitation Project, Gangtok, Sikkim, IndiaNoarlunga Railway, South AustraliaClimate Resilient Infrastructure
Decision support for adaptation
Governments
• Planning adaptation
• Adaptive capacity
• Insurance
• Adaptation funding structures
Climate Resilient Infrastructure
Cost Benefit Analysis of Adaptation - Techniques
Cost Benefit Analysis
Climate Resilient Infrastructure
Country/Region LevelSettlement/Sector Level
Cost Benefit Analysis Framework
Baseline Data
Analysis
Climate Change
Implications
Adaptation Solutions
Decision making support for policy
and investment
Past site events
Existing threats Impacts Costs Adaptation
options
Cost benefit
analysis
Socio-economic factors
Climate change forcing
Optimising adaptation
Figure 1. Key inputs and flow of pilot project
Climate Resilient Infrastructure
Cost Benefit of Adapting to Climate Change
• Economic model to assess cost and benefit of adapting
• Optimum scale and size of adaptation options
• Best timing to implement adaptation
Narrabeen Lagoon, Sydney (Department of Climate Change)
Climate Resilient Infrastructure
Adaptation options
Adaptation Measure Dimensions (m) Timing
Lagoon opening 70.0 width 2035
Lakeside levee 2.7 height 2010
Progress Park levee 2.5 height After 2100
Nareen Creek levee 2.3 height After 2100
Flood awareness Not applicable 2010
Planning control Height not modelled 2010
Climate Resilient Infrastructure
“It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is the most adaptable to change.”
Charles Darwin
