Climate Roadmap 2020/2050 for

Germany

Dr. Ursula Fuentes Hutfilter

Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety

Head of Division KI I 1

Strategic Aspects of Climate Policy, Climate Action Plan

Profile of

Germany

• Federal Republic, 16 „Länder“

• Emissions per capita: 11.8 t

Licence under: C. Busch CC BY-SA

3.0

Source: Destatis, VGR

7,1 7,5 5

25,4

21,5

5,9 6,7

10,3 10,6

16,2

7,2

19,4

12,2

16,3

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5

10

15

20

25

30

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• Long tradition and strong public support for Climate Policy (National Climate plans, implementation of Kyoto Protocol)

• 2007: Integrated Energy and Climate Package – 2020 climate target (minus 40% re 1990)

• 2010: Energy concept - Long-term climate and energy policy up to 2050 aimed at fundamentally restructuring the energy system, but also other sectors -> 2011: Energiewende

• Transition towards a highly efficient renewable energy system also as an economic and social opportunity.

• Focus on innovation and advanced technologies, on effective and cost-efficient measures in line with market and competition principles.

German Climate and Energy Policy

Central Pillars

Institutional framework

• Domestic climate targets set out in government

decisions, supported by legislation on individual climate and energy policies.

• Latest coalition agreement (Dec 2013) confirms 2020 and 2050 targets, interim targets for 2030 and 2040 confirmed through monitoring process for the Energiewende.

• EU legislation includes overall cap for emissions under emissions trading scheme (about 50% of GHG emissions in Germany)

• Legally binding target for 2020 for non-trading sectors in Germany in EU effort sharing scheme.

Targets of the energy transformation

5

Targets of Germany

under EU climate legislation

Germany:

-14% by 2020 vs 2005

Germany: about

-34% by 2020 vs. 1990

Trend in GHG emissions

in Germany

7

27% vs 1990

Gap 2020

Growing economy,

declining emissions

Figures for 2014 based on preliminary data

Emission Trends

• Decoupling growth from emissions

• Kyoto target during 1st commitment period

was 21% for Germany, actual reduction was

23,6% (2008-2012 on average)

• Most recent figures show 27% reduction vs

1990 levels in 2014 (estimate)

• Projection shows about 33% reduction by

2020 based on existing measures (without

Climate Action Programme 2020)

Climate Action Programme 2020

Target • 40% reduction in GHG emissions by 2020 (vs 1990)

Gap

• With current policies: 33-34% GHG reduction 2020

• -> Gap: 6-7%, 75 – 87 Mt (+/- 1%: 62 – 100 Mt)

CAP

• Climate Action Programme 2020

• Adopted in December 2014 in Cabinet

Approach

• Start April 2014: starting point, identification of gap

• broad invitation: Identification of measures and suggestions

• Federal Government / ministries, agencies

• Länder and municipalities

• Civil society

• environmental and business NGOs

• over 500 external proposals

• sectoral grouping, Clustering

• quantification, if possible

Key Policy Measures of the Action Climate

Programme 2020

Measures Contribution to greenhouse gas

emission reduction (million tonnes of CO2 equivalent)

National Action Plan on Energy Efficiency (not

including measures in the transport sector)

Approx. 25-30 million tonnes

(including energy efficiency in buildings)

Climate-friendly building and housing strategy Approx. 5.7-10 million tonnes

(1.5 - 4.7 million tonnes of which are in

addition to NAPE)

Measures in the transport sector Approx. 7-10 million tonnes

Reduction in non-energy-related emissions in:

industry, the commerce/trade/services sector and

waste management

agriculture

3-7.7 million tonnes

3.6 million tonnes

Reform of the emissions trading scheme Dependent on decisions at EU level on

structure

Further measures, especially in the electricity sector 22 million tonnes

TOTAL 62-78 million tonnes

Sectors/Percentage of the

GHG-Emissions in 2014

13

1 3

6

1

Industry 21%

Agriculture 8%

Transport 18%

Households 10%

Waste indurstry and other emissions

1%

Energy Industry 38%

Commerce, trade and services

4%

Source: Umweltbundesamt

(03/2015)

Energy Sector

• 38% of GHG-emissions

• Reduction 2014: 24%

• ETS

• Renewable Energy

• CHP

• Efficiency

• Projection 2020: -33%

468 401 388 399 371 377 355

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013 Schätzung 2014

Est. 2014

Action programme 2020: Additional measures

ETS reform, CHP/electricity market, Additional effort Electricity

sector, Energy Efficiency (NAPE)

Industry Sector

• 21% of GHG-emissions

• Reduction 2014: 34%

• no change since 2002 and

in projection

• ETS and REN

• energy productivity

283 243

207 189 188 188 187

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013 Schätzung 2014Est. 2014

Action programme 2020: Additional measures

ETS reform, Energy Efficiency measures (NAPE)

Non-energy emissions (2.5 – 5.2 Mt): recycling legislation, F-gas

emissions, resource efficiency incentives

Transport

• 18% of GHG emissions

• Reduction 2014: 1%,

increasing trend

• Projection 2020: 9%

• EU policies

• Tax reform

• Monetary policy (i.e. toll)

• More efficient technologies

163 176 181 160 153 158 164

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

020406080

100120140160

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013 Schätzung2014Est.

2014

Action programme 2020: Additional measures: 7-10 Mt

Monetary policy (toll), infrastructure investments (rail, public

transport, cycling), E-mobility, efficiency incentives

Households / Buildings

• 10% of GHG-emissions

• Reduction 2014: 33%

• building refurbishment

programms

• Energy Conservation

Act/Energy saving

ordinance

• Renewable Heat Act

• Projection 2020: 41%

131 130 119 112 107 104 88

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013 Schätzung 2014

Est. 2014

Action programme 2020: Additional measures (6-10 Mt)

Building Efficiency measures (NAPE), Support for district-based

approaches, local climate action projects, long-term strategy

Commerce, trade and

services

• 4% of GHG-emissions

• Reduction 2014: 55%

• Energy savings and

energy-related

renovation

78

58 48 42 42 42 35

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013 Schätzung2014Est.

2014

Action programme 2020: Additional measures

Building Efficiency measures (NAPE)

Agriculture

• 8% of GHG-emissions

• Reduction 2014: 20%

• European Common

• Agricultural policy

• Fertiliser management

• Reduced life stock density

• Organic farming

• Projection 2020: 20%

88 75 73 69 68 71 70

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013 Schätzung2014Est.

2014

Action programme 2020: Additional measures (3.6 Mt)

N efficiency (Fertiliser Application Ordinance), organic farming.

Plus: Grassland/peatland protection

Waste management /other

emissions

• 1% of GHG-emissions

• Reduction 2014: 67%

• Prohibition to landfill

organic degradable

municipal waste

• Stepping up recycling

rates

11.06.2015

39 39

30 23

16 13 13

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013 Prognose2014

Est. 2014

Action programme 2020: Additional measures (0.5 – 2.5 Mt)

Aerobic stabilisation of landfills (supporting local communities)

Reporting, Monitoring, Implementation

• Annual climate action report (cabinet)

• Update emission trends and projections

• Progress of implementation of measures (>100)

• Incorporated in Energiewende Monitoring report

• National Climate Action Alliance:

• representatives from all groups of society

• Support implementation of measures

• Activate potential (non-quantifiable “soft” measures)

• Identify further options for action

Climate Action Plan 2050: Mandate

• Climate Action Programme 2020 is important

milestone for reaching 2050 climate target

• Coalition agreement: describe next reduction steps up

to 2050 and support them with measures developed

in a broad-based dialogue process

• BMUB tasked to draw up Climate Action Plan 2050

• To be adopted in 2016 by the federal cabinet

• Climate Action Plan 2050 will be updated at regular

intervals (to be defined)

• Participation also in implementation and review

Climate Policy Plan: Dialogue and

Participation

• Establishing climate policy - decarbonisation - as a

task for society as a whole: Transformation and long-

term structural reforms need broad support

• Dialogue process with broad participation of the

regions, communities and all groups of society

• Including direct public participation

• Starting point: Conference 25/26 June

• Dialogue rounds stakeholder/Länder/municipalities

• Direct public participation

- > recommendations for government

Climate Action Plan 2050: scope

(indicative)

• Review of intermediate targets in light of long-term

reduction needs

• What are robust pathways? How to avoid lock-in?

• Elaboration of reduction trajectory up to next

intermediate target (including sectoral

contributions)

• Policy programme to underpin intermediate

targets

• Continuous dialogue and participation process

• Monitoring, evaluation, review

Climate scenarios 2050

Source: Öko-Institut/Fraunhofer Institut: Klimaschutzszenarien 2050, 2014

Climate Action Plan 2050 –

identify robust pathways

26 Source: Öko-Institut/Fraunhofer Institut: Klimaschutzszenarien 2050, 2014

?

Thank you for your attention!

Dr. Ursula Fuentes Hutfilter

Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety

Head of Unit KI I 1

Strategic Aspects of Climate Policy, Climate Action Plan

backup material

Projected emissions by 2030

27,3% -33,0% -37,0% -43,0%

0,0%

-2,3 bis +0,8%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

2015 2020 2025 2030

Prognostizierte Verringerung gegenüber 1990 target

EU climate policy: 2030 Package

• EU 2030 climate and energy policy framework:

• 40 percent reduction in GHG emissions

• Increasing the share of renewable energy to at least 27%

• Increasing energy efficiency by at least 27%

• Criteria based differentiation of contributions by

member states, e.g. GDP/cap, mitigation potential

• In order to achieve the GHG emissions target the EU-

ETS was reformed, including following aspects:

• cap declining by 2.2% annually from 2021 onwards, instead of

1.74% up to 2020.

• Introduction of a market stability reserve to improve the system´s

resilience to major shocks

Avoided Greenhouse Gases due

to Renewable Energies (2013)

11.06.2015

Investment in Renewables (2013)

11.06.2015

Gross employment effect of

Renewable Energy

11.06.2015

Nuclear

power plants

in Germany

scheduled for

phase-out by

2022

11.06.2015