climate services and products in belize at the national level by catherine cumberbatch & derrick...
TRANSCRIPT
National Meteorological Service of Belize
Presents
Climate Services and Products in Belize at the
National LevelBy
Catherine Cumberbatch & Derrick Rudon
October 30, 2013Radisson Fort George
What are the Climate Services and who are the
Providers in Belize?
The National Meteorological Service of Belize is the leading governmental authority on weather, water and climate.
It provides meteorological and climate-based products and services to the Belizean public through :
•systematic and accurate monitoring and data collection
•reliable data analyses
•timely dissemination of user-friendly information on regular and emergency events and processes.
This is undertaken in order to contribute to the safety and well-being of the people of Belize and the sustainable development of the nation.
Meteorological Instruments Network
What are the Climate ServiceNational Met Service of Belize issues the followingservices:
1. Short-term (3 hours up to 2 days) General or Public Forecast. Marine Forecast Aviation Forecast Fire ForecastRadar
Forecast products 24- 48 hours
Cont’d
2. Mid-term (4 days) weather forecasts
Four day forecastAgro-meteorological ForecastTelevision Forecast
Climate Services Cont’d
3. Long-term (monthly) weather forecasts
Monthly Agro-met Bulletin.Climate predictions for 3-months and seasons example
- May-June-July (MJJ), August-September-October (ASO)
Drought Monitoring
Climate Predictability Tool• The Climate Predictability Tool(CPT) developed by the International Research Institute(IRI)• Produces seasonal forecast forprecipitation
Precipitation Outlook ForOctober-December 2013
Precipitation Outlook for August to October 2013
19351938194219451949195219561959196319661970197319771980198419871991199419982001200520082012-5-4-3-2-101234
Standard Precipitation Index for Punta Gorda (1935-2013)
3 Month6 Months
SP
I
195319551958196019631965196819701973197519781980198319851988199019931995199820002003200520082010-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Standard Precipitation Index for Philip Goldson International Airport (1953-
2013)
3 Months 6 Months
The results of the Standard Precipitation Index calculations for a few stations across Belize.
Oct-13Seasonal Precipitation
Forecast for ONDStation 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month 12 Month Probability
Philip Goldson Airport 0.2 - 2.91 0.68 - 3.06 1.25 - 3.02 0.28 - 2.06 35 Above -0.49 - 0.2 0.25 - 0.68 0.96 - 1.25 0.01 - 0.28 35 Normal
-1.8 - -0.49 -0.34 - 0.25 0.58 - 0.96 -0.34 – 0.58 30 Below
Central Farm 0.91 - 1.96 1- 1.51 0.77 – 1.11 0.09 – 0.35 35 Above 0.48 - 0.91 0.83 – 1.0 0.66 – 0.77 0.01 - 0.09 35 Normal
-1.06 – 0.48 0.45 – 0.83 0.44 – 0.66 -0.16 – 0.01 30 BelowMelinda 0.49 – 2.23 0.86 – 2.22 0.55 – 1.62 0.51 – 1.39 35 Above
-0.38 – 0.49 0.34 – 0.86 0.17 – 0.55 0.22 – 0.51 35 Normal
-2.24 - -0.38 -0.35 – 0.34 -0.3 – 0.17 -0.15 – 0.22 30 BelowTowerHill 0.41 – 2.58 1.58 – 3.13 0.99 – 2.4 0.39 – 1.65 35 Above
-0.16 – 0.41 1.27 – 1.58 0.74 – 0.99 0.18 – 0.39 35 Normal
-2.88 - -0.16 0.45 – 1.27 0.09 – 0.74 -0.35 – 0.18 30 BelowNov-13
Station 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month 12 Month Probability
Philip Goldson Airport 0.65 – 1.81 0.25 – 3.32 1.31 – 3.45 0.79 – 2.06 35 Above
0.05 – 0.65 -0.65 – 0.25 0.78 – 1.31 0.31 – 0.79 35 Normal
-2.89 – 0.05 -2.48 - -0.65 -0.19 – 0.78 -0.53 – 0.31 30 BelowCentral Farm 0.72 – 2.09 1.05 – 2.19 0.94 – 1.62 0.25 – 0.78 35 Above
0.48-0.72 0.76 – 1.05 0.79 – 0.94 0.14 – 0.25 35 Normal
-1.47 – 0.48 -0.36 – 0.76 0.31 – 0.79 -0.21 – 0.14 30 BelowMelinda 0.52 – 1.75 0.78 – 2.79 0.9 – 2.34 0.53 – 1.87 35 Above
-0.22 – 0.52 -0.19 – 0.78 0.3 – 0.9 0 – 0.53 35 Normal
-3.62 - -0.22 -1.98 - -0.19 -0.69 – 0.3 -0.84 – 0 30 BelowTowerHill 0.69 – 1.67 0.95 – 3.16 1.39 – 3.28 0.75 – 2.35 35 Above
0 – 0.69 0.23 – 0.95 0.84 – 1.39 0.32 – 0.75 35 Normal
-2.66 - 0 -1.64 – 0.23 -0.45 – 0.84 -0.64 – 0.32 30 Below
Climate Services Cont’d
Climatological normsGraphical analysisPredictive trends (temperature and rainfall)Summaries (rainfall, temperatures etc)Astronomical ProductsHurricane Reports
Data Request
Climatological Information
TRENDSTime series plots are made
by using historical data from our network of stations.
From these plots linear trend and 5-year moving averages
can be determined
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 201524.5
25.0
25.5
26.0
26.5
27.0
27.5
PGIA Average Temperatures
Years
Tem
per
atu
res
(C)
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20151000
1250
1500
1750
2000
2250
2500
2750
3000
PGIA Annual Total Rainfall
Years
Rai
nfa
ll (
mm
)
Ways to disseminate information
• Public Media
Monthly Bulletins
Monthly Weather Forecasts
Seasonal Forecasts
Siren Systems
Radio and TV Broadcasts
Internet (www.hydromet.gov.bz)•
Demands for climate service are huge and we at the Met Service continue to do our utmost best to provide the service in
order to contribute to the safety and well-being of the people of Belize and
the sustainable development of the nation.
Threat of Climate Change demands a lot from
the National Meteorological Service .
There are many Challenges we face in our day to day work. Example we lack the expertise in Climatology and Agro-meteorology. We have limited staff .
But with all our shortcomings we continue to strive towards Excellence . We often looked to the Caribbean Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology for their Guidance and Assistance , which I must say they have being extremely helpful.
We all have heard and see most of the services and products that we have and that can be provided by the National Meteorological Service , it’s up to you to tell us how these services can help each of you in your specific field and quest.
Or tell us of other services or products that you think we can provide to you that would be beneficial.