climate simulations of the 20 th century by using ncc/iapt63 model ying xu, xuejie gao, yong luo,...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Climate Simulations of the 20 th Century by using NCC/IAPT63 Model Ying XU, Xuejie GAO, Yong LUO, Panmao ZHAI and Yihui DING (National Climate Center,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b86aa550346d6338b598f/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Climate Simulations of the 20th Century by using NCC/IAPT63 Model
Ying XU, Xuejie GAO, Yong LUO , Panmao ZHAI and Yihui DING
(National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing)
![Page 2: Climate Simulations of the 20 th Century by using NCC/IAPT63 Model Ying XU, Xuejie GAO, Yong LUO, Panmao ZHAI and Yihui DING (National Climate Center,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b86aa550346d6338b598f/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
OutlineOutlineModel Description
Experiment design
Result analysis
Summary
Future plan
![Page 3: Climate Simulations of the 20 th Century by using NCC/IAPT63 Model Ying XU, Xuejie GAO, Yong LUO, Panmao ZHAI and Yihui DING (National Climate Center,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b86aa550346d6338b598f/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Model Description
![Page 4: Climate Simulations of the 20 th Century by using NCC/IAPT63 Model Ying XU, Xuejie GAO, Yong LUO, Panmao ZHAI and Yihui DING (National Climate Center,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b86aa550346d6338b598f/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Model DescriptionModel Description
The atmospheric component of the model (AGCM) : 16 levels with a horizontal resolution of 1.875 degree of latitude by 1.875 degree of longitude, which produces a global grid of 192×96 grid cells;
The reference pressure is 1013.25hPa, time integration step is 22.5 minutes
![Page 5: Climate Simulations of the 20 th Century by using NCC/IAPT63 Model Ying XU, Xuejie GAO, Yong LUO, Panmao ZHAI and Yihui DING (National Climate Center,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b86aa550346d6338b598f/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Model DescriptionModel Description
The oceanic component of the model (OGCM) was developed by IAP (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CAS). It uses a triangular-truncated spectral horizontal grid system, with same horizontal resolution as the AGCM.
Altogether 30 vertical levels, of which 20 levels for the upper ocean 1000m.
![Page 6: Climate Simulations of the 20 th Century by using NCC/IAPT63 Model Ying XU, Xuejie GAO, Yong LUO, Panmao ZHAI and Yihui DING (National Climate Center,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b86aa550346d6338b598f/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Model DescriptionModel Description
Following parameterization schemes of physical processes are included:
radiation scheme: cloud and radiation processes and the scatter process of cloud were considered.
The GHG absorbers include H2O, CO2 and O3 and direct influence of aerosols is prescribed
vertical diffusion: turbulent vertical fluxes were simulated through the process of vertical diffusion
![Page 7: Climate Simulations of the 20 th Century by using NCC/IAPT63 Model Ying XU, Xuejie GAO, Yong LUO, Panmao ZHAI and Yihui DING (National Climate Center,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b86aa550346d6338b598f/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Model DescriptionModel Description
gravity wave drag convection: mass flux scheme for deep, shallow
and mid-level convection clouds were represented by a bulk model and include updraft and downdraft mass fluxes
land-surface processes sea-ice: thermodynamic sea-ice
![Page 8: Climate Simulations of the 20 th Century by using NCC/IAPT63 Model Ying XU, Xuejie GAO, Yong LUO, Panmao ZHAI and Yihui DING (National Climate Center,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b86aa550346d6338b598f/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Part I: Two simulations for climate variation from 1900~2000 year using the NCC/IAPT63 coupled model based on two different radiation schemes
Part II: Four simulations from 1948~2003 forced by HADISST and Sea Ice data. Two simulations have been completed, and another two are undergoing. Simulations were based on forcing from change in CO2, ozone, but not including that of aerosols, volcano and solar radiation.
Reference period: 1971~2000
ExperimentsExperiments
![Page 9: Climate Simulations of the 20 th Century by using NCC/IAPT63 Model Ying XU, Xuejie GAO, Yong LUO, Panmao ZHAI and Yihui DING (National Climate Center,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b86aa550346d6338b598f/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Result Analysis
![Page 10: Climate Simulations of the 20 th Century by using NCC/IAPT63 Model Ying XU, Xuejie GAO, Yong LUO, Panmao ZHAI and Yihui DING (National Climate Center,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b86aa550346d6338b598f/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Part I
Simulation of climate variation from 1900~2000 year using NCC/IAPT63
coupled model
![Page 11: Climate Simulations of the 20 th Century by using NCC/IAPT63 Model Ying XU, Xuejie GAO, Yong LUO, Panmao ZHAI and Yihui DING (National Climate Center,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b86aa550346d6338b598f/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Change of temperature and precipitation over Globe in 20th century (unit: ) (w.r.t.1961~1990)℃
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
Gl obe-TGl obe-OBS
Gl obe-Pr
-0. 8
-0. 6
-0. 4
-0. 2
0
0. 2
0. 4
0. 6
0. 8
1
1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Gl obe-Pr
![Page 12: Climate Simulations of the 20 th Century by using NCC/IAPT63 Model Ying XU, Xuejie GAO, Yong LUO, Panmao ZHAI and Yihui DING (National Climate Center,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b86aa550346d6338b598f/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Change of temperature and precipitation over China in 20th century (unit: ) (w.r.t.1961~1990)℃
-1. 5
-1
-0. 5
0
0. 5
1
1. 5
1900
1903
1906
1909
1912
1915
1918
1921
1924
1927
1930
1933
1936
1939
1942
1945
1948
1951
1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
Chi na-TChi na-OBS
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Chi na-PrChi na-OBS
![Page 13: Climate Simulations of the 20 th Century by using NCC/IAPT63 Model Ying XU, Xuejie GAO, Yong LUO, Panmao ZHAI and Yihui DING (National Climate Center,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b86aa550346d6338b598f/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Long-term trend of annual mean T and Pr(%/100a)(1901~2000)
Global Simu.
Global OBS China-simu. China-OBS
T 0.86 0.67 0.89 0.34
Pr. 0.2 3.6 1.3
![Page 14: Climate Simulations of the 20 th Century by using NCC/IAPT63 Model Ying XU, Xuejie GAO, Yong LUO, Panmao ZHAI and Yihui DING (National Climate Center,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b86aa550346d6338b598f/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Correlation between simulation and observation in last 100 years
Globe East Asia China
T 0.67 0.55 0.31
Pr. 0.03 0.0 -0.02
![Page 15: Climate Simulations of the 20 th Century by using NCC/IAPT63 Model Ying XU, Xuejie GAO, Yong LUO, Panmao ZHAI and Yihui DING (National Climate Center,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b86aa550346d6338b598f/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Part I summary
• NCC/IAPT63 model was applied for transient climate change experiments on the 20th century. Experiments include anthropogenic forcing, but do not include natural forcing and troposphere aerosols.
• In these preliminary experiments, variation in global annual mean surface temperature seems to be generally agreed with observations.
.
![Page 16: Climate Simulations of the 20 th Century by using NCC/IAPT63 Model Ying XU, Xuejie GAO, Yong LUO, Panmao ZHAI and Yihui DING (National Climate Center,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b86aa550346d6338b598f/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Part II
Experiments forced by HADISST1.1
for the 1948~2003
![Page 17: Climate Simulations of the 20 th Century by using NCC/IAPT63 Model Ying XU, Xuejie GAO, Yong LUO, Panmao ZHAI and Yihui DING (National Climate Center,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b86aa550346d6338b598f/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
MSLP (Jan)
![Page 18: Climate Simulations of the 20 th Century by using NCC/IAPT63 Model Ying XU, Xuejie GAO, Yong LUO, Panmao ZHAI and Yihui DING (National Climate Center,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b86aa550346d6338b598f/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
MSLP (Jul)
![Page 19: Climate Simulations of the 20 th Century by using NCC/IAPT63 Model Ying XU, Xuejie GAO, Yong LUO, Panmao ZHAI and Yihui DING (National Climate Center,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b86aa550346d6338b598f/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
MSLP (annual mean)
![Page 20: Climate Simulations of the 20 th Century by using NCC/IAPT63 Model Ying XU, Xuejie GAO, Yong LUO, Panmao ZHAI and Yihui DING (National Climate Center,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b86aa550346d6338b598f/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
1 月份 30年平均海平面气压场
7月份 30年平均海平面气压场
低压位于高纬的海洋区,沿海岸线等压线密集。在欧亚大陆和北美大陆以及副热带大西洋地区是地面高压带。在数值实验中,只在下边界是加热里作用时,也能模拟出和真实情况相似的场,说明热力在维持高纬海洋区地面地压时很重要。低低
高
高
高
低
高高
海平面气压于 1月份近于相反,在欧亚大陆上是庞大的热低压,而在两大洋上为强大的副热带高压,这反映了热力强迫的显著差异。地形强迫主要反映在山脉两侧海平面气压梯度的差异上。在高空西风带地区,通过山脉海平面气压从西向东减小。
低
![Page 21: Climate Simulations of the 20 th Century by using NCC/IAPT63 Model Ying XU, Xuejie GAO, Yong LUO, Panmao ZHAI and Yihui DING (National Climate Center,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b86aa550346d6338b598f/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Distribution of 850hPa height field (1971~2000 mean) in Jan.
Simulation observation
![Page 22: Climate Simulations of the 20 th Century by using NCC/IAPT63 Model Ying XU, Xuejie GAO, Yong LUO, Panmao ZHAI and Yihui DING (National Climate Center,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b86aa550346d6338b598f/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Distribution of 850hPa height field (1971~2000 mean) in Jul.
Simulation observation
![Page 23: Climate Simulations of the 20 th Century by using NCC/IAPT63 Model Ying XU, Xuejie GAO, Yong LUO, Panmao ZHAI and Yihui DING (National Climate Center,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b86aa550346d6338b598f/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Distribution of annual mean heights at 850hPa
Simulation observation
![Page 24: Climate Simulations of the 20 th Century by using NCC/IAPT63 Model Ying XU, Xuejie GAO, Yong LUO, Panmao ZHAI and Yihui DING (National Climate Center,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b86aa550346d6338b598f/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Distribution of 500hPa height in Jan (1971~2000 )
Simulation observation
![Page 25: Climate Simulations of the 20 th Century by using NCC/IAPT63 Model Ying XU, Xuejie GAO, Yong LUO, Panmao ZHAI and Yihui DING (National Climate Center,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b86aa550346d6338b598f/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Distribution of 500hPa heights in Jul (1971~2000)
Simulation observation
![Page 26: Climate Simulations of the 20 th Century by using NCC/IAPT63 Model Ying XU, Xuejie GAO, Yong LUO, Panmao ZHAI and Yihui DING (National Climate Center,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b86aa550346d6338b598f/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Distribution of annual mean 500hPa heights
(1971~2000 )Simulation observation
![Page 27: Climate Simulations of the 20 th Century by using NCC/IAPT63 Model Ying XU, Xuejie GAO, Yong LUO, Panmao ZHAI and Yihui DING (National Climate Center,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b86aa550346d6338b598f/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Mean Jan 850hPa wind fields (1971~2000 )
Simulation observation
![Page 28: Climate Simulations of the 20 th Century by using NCC/IAPT63 Model Ying XU, Xuejie GAO, Yong LUO, Panmao ZHAI and Yihui DING (National Climate Center,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b86aa550346d6338b598f/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Mean Jul 850hPa wind fields (1971~2000)
Simulation observation
![Page 29: Climate Simulations of the 20 th Century by using NCC/IAPT63 Model Ying XU, Xuejie GAO, Yong LUO, Panmao ZHAI and Yihui DING (National Climate Center,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b86aa550346d6338b598f/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Annual mean 850hPa wind field (1971~2000)
Simulation observation
![Page 30: Climate Simulations of the 20 th Century by using NCC/IAPT63 Model Ying XU, Xuejie GAO, Yong LUO, Panmao ZHAI and Yihui DING (National Climate Center,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b86aa550346d6338b598f/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Mean Jan 200hPa wind field (1971~2000)
Simulation observation
![Page 31: Climate Simulations of the 20 th Century by using NCC/IAPT63 Model Ying XU, Xuejie GAO, Yong LUO, Panmao ZHAI and Yihui DING (National Climate Center,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b86aa550346d6338b598f/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Mean Jul. 200hPa wind field from (1971~2000)
Simulation observation
![Page 32: Climate Simulations of the 20 th Century by using NCC/IAPT63 Model Ying XU, Xuejie GAO, Yong LUO, Panmao ZHAI and Yihui DING (National Climate Center,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b86aa550346d6338b598f/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
30 year mean U lat.-P cross section in January
Simulation observation
![Page 33: Climate Simulations of the 20 th Century by using NCC/IAPT63 Model Ying XU, Xuejie GAO, Yong LUO, Panmao ZHAI and Yihui DING (National Climate Center,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b86aa550346d6338b598f/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
30year mean U lat.-P section plane in July
Simulation observation
![Page 34: Climate Simulations of the 20 th Century by using NCC/IAPT63 Model Ying XU, Xuejie GAO, Yong LUO, Panmao ZHAI and Yihui DING (National Climate Center,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b86aa550346d6338b598f/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
30year mean Temperature lat.-P cross section for January
Simulation observation
![Page 35: Climate Simulations of the 20 th Century by using NCC/IAPT63 Model Ying XU, Xuejie GAO, Yong LUO, Panmao ZHAI and Yihui DING (National Climate Center,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b86aa550346d6338b598f/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
30year mean Temperature lat.-P cross section for July
Simulation observation
![Page 36: Climate Simulations of the 20 th Century by using NCC/IAPT63 Model Ying XU, Xuejie GAO, Yong LUO, Panmao ZHAI and Yihui DING (National Climate Center,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b86aa550346d6338b598f/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Annual mean 30year mean Temperature Lat.-P cross section
Simulation observation
![Page 37: Climate Simulations of the 20 th Century by using NCC/IAPT63 Model Ying XU, Xuejie GAO, Yong LUO, Panmao ZHAI and Yihui DING (National Climate Center,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b86aa550346d6338b598f/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Surface air temperature in January
Simulation observation
![Page 38: Climate Simulations of the 20 th Century by using NCC/IAPT63 Model Ying XU, Xuejie GAO, Yong LUO, Panmao ZHAI and Yihui DING (National Climate Center,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b86aa550346d6338b598f/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Surface air temperature in July
Simulation observation
![Page 39: Climate Simulations of the 20 th Century by using NCC/IAPT63 Model Ying XU, Xuejie GAO, Yong LUO, Panmao ZHAI and Yihui DING (National Climate Center,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b86aa550346d6338b598f/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Annual mean surface air temperature(1971~2000)
Simulation observation
![Page 40: Climate Simulations of the 20 th Century by using NCC/IAPT63 Model Ying XU, Xuejie GAO, Yong LUO, Panmao ZHAI and Yihui DING (National Climate Center,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b86aa550346d6338b598f/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Mean State of January Precipitation
![Page 41: Climate Simulations of the 20 th Century by using NCC/IAPT63 Model Ying XU, Xuejie GAO, Yong LUO, Panmao ZHAI and Yihui DING (National Climate Center,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b86aa550346d6338b598f/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
Mean State of July Precipitation
![Page 42: Climate Simulations of the 20 th Century by using NCC/IAPT63 Model Ying XU, Xuejie GAO, Yong LUO, Panmao ZHAI and Yihui DING (National Climate Center,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b86aa550346d6338b598f/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
Mean State of Annual Precipitation
![Page 43: Climate Simulations of the 20 th Century by using NCC/IAPT63 Model Ying XU, Xuejie GAO, Yong LUO, Panmao ZHAI and Yihui DING (National Climate Center,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b86aa550346d6338b598f/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
Month mean time-series of global surface temperature from 1948~2003
![Page 44: Climate Simulations of the 20 th Century by using NCC/IAPT63 Model Ying XU, Xuejie GAO, Yong LUO, Panmao ZHAI and Yihui DING (National Climate Center,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b86aa550346d6338b598f/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
Annual mean global surface temperature during 1948~2003
![Page 45: Climate Simulations of the 20 th Century by using NCC/IAPT63 Model Ying XU, Xuejie GAO, Yong LUO, Panmao ZHAI and Yihui DING (National Climate Center,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b86aa550346d6338b598f/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
Simulation and Observation of Annual Global Mean LandSurface Temperature by using HADAM3 (Ref: 1961-1990) -
-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2
00.20.40.60.8
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
All Forcing Observation
![Page 46: Climate Simulations of the 20 th Century by using NCC/IAPT63 Model Ying XU, Xuejie GAO, Yong LUO, Panmao ZHAI and Yihui DING (National Climate Center,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b86aa550346d6338b598f/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
Part II summary
• HADISST1.1 dataset is being used in some simulations of climate change of 20th Century
• Results of simulation for mean state seems to be encouraging
• Simulations for climate variations need to be greatly improved
![Page 47: Climate Simulations of the 20 th Century by using NCC/IAPT63 Model Ying XU, Xuejie GAO, Yong LUO, Panmao ZHAI and Yihui DING (National Climate Center,](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/551b86aa550346d6338b598f/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
Future plan
• Further simulations
• To improve the simulation results
• More thorough and robust analysis