Climate-smart agriculture:Action for reduced vulnerability of Agriculture

and Food Systems to Climate Change

Dr Robert ZougmoréRegional Program Leader West Africa

Climate change adaptation days, First Edition, 01-02 April 2014, Ouahigouya, Burkina Faso

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1. West Africa in brief2. Key challenges3. Plausible future scenarios of agriculture4. Needs for climate-smart actions

Outline

Socio economic overview of West Africa•Vegetation and Land use

•Under-five mortality is between 100 and 200/1000.

• The majority of the countries have a life expectancy of between 50 and 60 years.

Population in 2010 was about 290 million. Agricultural sector employs 60 % of the active labor force contributing 35 % of GDP.

In 2008, per capita GDP ranged from US$128 in Guinea-Bissau to more than US$1,500 in Cape Verde, with all other countries having less than US$ 500

An average of about 70–80 percent of the population lives on less than US$2 per day

Irrigable Land 8.9 million ha

Arable Land 236 million ha

10.3 % exploited in West Africa

10 % developed

Significant pastoral and

fisheries resources

However, West African

economies are especially

vulnerable to climate change

as a result of their heavy

dependence on rainfed

agriculture.

Natural Resource Endowment in WA

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Major challenges

• increase agricultural production among resource-poor farmers without exacerbating environmental problems

• and simultaneously coping with climate change (adaptation).

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To 2090, taking 18 climate models

Four degree rise

Thornton et al. (2010) Proc. National Academy Science

>20% loss5-20% lossNo change5-20% gain>20% gain

Length of growing period (%)

Length of growing season is likely to decline..

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Scenarios for the future

Analytical framework• Integrates modeling components (macro to micro, to

model range of processes, from those driven by economics to those that are essentially biological in nature (IMPACT, HYDROLOGY, DSSAT, GCMs…)

• Used hundred of scenario maps, models, figures, and their detailed analysis

• To generate plausible future scenarios that combine economic and biophysical characteristics

• to explore the possible consequences for agriculture, food security, and resources management to 2050

• National contributors from 11 countries reviewed the scenario results for their countries and proposed a variety of policies to counter the effects of climate change on agriculture and food security.

Population and income

1. A significant increase in the population of all countries except Cape Verde – pessimistic: population of all countries will more than double except Cape Verde

2. Income per capita in the optimistic scenario could range from US$ 1,594 for Liberia to US$ 6,265 for Cote d’Ivoire.

3. Income per capita does not improve significantly in the pessimistic scenario.

Rainfall

Change in average annual precipitation, 2000–2050, CSIRO, A1B (mm) MIROC, A1B (mm)

Despite variations among models, there is a clear indication of: 1.changes in precipitation with either a reduction in the heavy-rainfall areas, particularly along the coast, 2.or an increase in areas of the Sahel hitherto devoid of much rain.3.Southern parts of Ghana, Togo, Benin and Nigeria will be dryer

Changes in yields (percent), 2010–2050, from the DSSAT crop model: CSIRO A1B MIROC A1B

Maize

Sorghum

Groundnut

Regional/landscape implications

Farmers and pastoralists may have to contend with new farming cultures including land tenure and changing food habits

Drought and floods could affect productivity and even threaten the existence of plants and animals

along the coast and the Sahel, respectively

Spread of malaria and trypanosomiases in hitherto dry areas in the Sahel

Heavy rains could pose a serious challenge to unpaved feeder roads vital for transport of inputs to farming areas and produce to market

Coastal West Africa Sahelian region

How can smallholder farmers achieve food

security under a changing climate?

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We need climate-smart agriculture actions at all levels

Agriculture must become “climate-smart”

• sustainably increases productivity

• Increases resilience (adaptation)

• reduces greenhouse gases where possible

• and enhances the achievement of national food security and development goals

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Farm and community:climate-smartpractices, institutions

Global: climate models, international agreements, finance

Climate-smart agriculture happens at multiple levels

National and regional:enabling policies, extension, support, research, finance

• Approach where CCAFS in partnership with rural communities and other stakeholders (NARES, NGOs, local authorities…), tests & validates in an integrated manner, several agricultural interventions

• Aims to boost farmers’ ability to adapt to climate change, manage risks and build resilience.

• At the same time, the hope is to improve livelihoods and incomes and, where possible, reduce greenhouse gas emissions to ensure solutions are sustainable

Concept of “climate-smart villages”

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Climate-smart villages

Index-based insurance

Climate information

services

Climate-smart

technologies

Local adaptation

plans

• Learning sites• Multiple partners• Capacity building

Scaling up•Policy•Private sector•Mainstream successes via major initiatives

How it works?

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Climate-smart village

Climate services

Weather insurance

Designed diversification

Mitigation/C seq

Community management of resources

Capacity building

Partnership-NARS-Extension-NGOs-Universities-Developt. partners-Private sector-CBOs, Local leaders

Climate-smart villages in Ghana (Doggoh), BF (Tibtenga), Senegal (Kaffrine), Mali (Cinzana), Niger (Kampa zarma)

Concrete action at community level:1.increase agricultural productivity and farmers’ income; 2.strengthen the resilience of ecosystems and livelihoods to climate change; 3.and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

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Examples of Successful CSA

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NIGER Bringing back the Sahel’s ‘underground forest’

o1980’s loss of trees led to severe soil

infertility, crop failure, famine.

o Land restored through farmer-managed

natural regeneration (FMNR).

oFMNR encourages farmers to regrow

indigenous trees.

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NIGER Success at scale

o 5 million ha of land restored, over

200 million trees re-established.

o FMNR spreading across southern

Niger, Burkina Faso, Mali and

Senegal.

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NIGERBenefits for food

production, adaptation and mitigation

o Food production:

additional half a million tonnes of grain per year.

improved food security of 2.5 million people.

yields of millet from 150 kg/ha to 500 kg/ha.

oAdaptation :

improved structure and fertility of the soil.

water more accessible.

oMitigation:

sequestration of carbon in soil, tree roots and

wood.

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WEST AFRICA SAHEL

Water harvesting boosts yields in the

Sahel

o Sahel – Droughts common and

farming difficult with sparse

rainfall.

o Changes in land management –

stone bunds and zai pits.

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WEST AFRICA SAHEL Success at scale

o Contour bunds established on

200,000 to 300,000 ha.

o Yields double those on unimproved

land.

o Tree cover and diversity increased.

o Groundwater levels rising.

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WEST AFRICA SAHEL

Benefits for food production, adaptation

and mitigationo Food production:

predicted that the improved land will produce

enough to feed 500,000 to 750,000 people.

increased diversity of food, health benefits.

o Adaptation:

contour bunds able to cope with changing

weather.

o Mitigation:

land management prevents further

worsening of soil quality.

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Upfront costs often substantialBrazil: US$ 250 million over two yearsMorocco: over US$ 1 billion per annumVietnam: US$ 500 million in 2011

Strong government support is crucial

Policy support, e.g. secure land and resource tenure Strategies for scaling-up Institutional frameworks Funding

CAADP e.g. Maputo commitments, African Regional Strategy on

Disaster Risk Reduction

UNFCC e.g. Green Climate Fund, Least Developed Countries Fund,

Adaptation Fund

Multi-lateral e.g. IFAD Adaptation for Smallholder Agriculture Program, G8 Global

Agriculture & Food Security Program

Some private finance e.g. supply chain security, carbon markets, corporate

social responsibility

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www.ccafs.cgiar.org; r.zougmore@cgiar.org