climate strategy & action plan republic of serbia · 3.1 goals, scope, resources and...

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European Union - EuropeAid/1365966/DH/SER/RS

Climate Strategy & Action Plan

Republic of Serbia

Project Identification No. EuropeAid/1365966/DH/SER/RS Service Contract No: 2016/375-531

Result 5 - Annex: The Adaptation Planning Framework Date: February 2018

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Republic of Serbia

Climate Strategy and Action Plan EuropeAid/135966/DH/SER/RS

The Adaptation Planning Framework

Author: Jeremy Carter, Gonçalo Cavalheiro

Date: February 2018

Disclaimer The content of this publication is the sole responsibility of the author and can

in no way be taken to reflect the views of the European Union.

Address: GFA Consulting Group GmbH

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Phone: +49 (40) 6 03 06 – 172 Fax: +49 (40) 6 03 06 – 179 E-Mail: [email protected]

This project is funded

by the European Union

Climate Strategy and Action Plan,

Republic of Serbia (Contract No: 2016/375-531)

A project implemented by a

GFA Consulting Group led consortium

T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S

ACRONYMS 3

1 E X E C U T I V E S U M M AR Y 1

2 INTRODUCTION 2

3 STAGE 1 – FRAME 6

3.1 Goals, scope, resources and stakeholders 6 3.1.1 Establish the goals of the application of the APF 6 3.1.2 Define the scope of the application of the APF 7 3.1.3 Resources and responsibilities for the application of the APF 7 3.1.4 Stakeholders 8

3.2 Information on climate, climate change and extreme weather events 8

4 STAGE 2 – ASSESS 10

4.1 Impacts of climate change 10

4.2 Risk assessment of climate change impacts 11

4.3 List of adaptation options 13

4.4 Identify priority adaptation measures 14

5 STAGE 3 – PLAN 18

6 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 22

List of Figures

Figure 1: The three stages of the APF and the general adaptation planning process 2 Figure 2: Steps of the APF 3




A project implemented by a GFA Consulting Group led

consortium

A C R O N Y M S

APF Adaptation Planning Framework

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

NAP Draft National Adaptation Plan

SNC Second National Communication

UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change




A project implemented by a GFA Consulting Group led

consortium

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1 EXECUTIVE SUMM ARY

This paper sets out a three-stage adaptation planning framework (APF). The APF aims to encourage strategic climate change adaptation planning, using a risk-based approach. This follows the approach promoted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The APF centres around the assessment of risks from climate change and related extreme weather impacts, and identifying and prioritising adaptation options to reduce the severity of key risk. In doing so, the APF can enable more effective targeting of available capacity and resources to support the achievement of climate change adaptation goals. The framework also addresses the development of adaptation plans to support the implementation, monitoring and evaluation of adaptation options.

The APF has been developed and applied within the Climate Strategy and Action Plan project to three priority sectors. These sectors are:

1. Agriculture – food production

2. Forestry – bioenergy

3. Hydrology and Water Resources – hydro-electric production

The output of the application of the APF to these three sectors is the Result 5 Report and can be used as an example for the application of the APF to other sectors or situations.




A project implemented by a GFA Consulting Group led consortium

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2 I N T R O D U C T I O N

This paper sets out a three-stage Adaptation Planning Framework (APF). The APF aims to encourage strategic climate change adaptation planning, using a risk-based approach. This follows the approach promoted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The APF, outlined in Figure 1, is a three stage1, step by step process that focuses on assessing risks from climate change and related extreme weather events and, consequently, identifying, prioritising and planning adaptation measures to reduce key risks. Figure 1: The three stages of the APF and the general adaptation planning process

Each stage is composed of a set of steps, summarized in Figure 2.

1 Figure 1 refers to five stages for illustration purposes only. The 4th (Implement) and 5th (Monitor) stages are not

included in the APF, but are an integral part of any planning and management process.

Frame

Assess

Plan(Implement)

(Monitor and Evaluate)





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Figure 2: Steps of the APF

The identification of key risks and priority adaptation measures enables more effective targeting of available capacity and resources to support the achievement of climate change adaptation goals.

The purpose of the APF is to be used as a possible tool in future projects, policies and measures in the Republic of Serbia for assessing the relevant climate change risks and adaptation requirements.

Stage 1: Frame

•Establish the goals of the application of the APF

• Step 1.1: Define the goals of the application of the APF

• Step 1.2: Define the scope of the application of the APF

• Step 1.2A: Define the thematic Scope

• Step 1.2B: Define the territorial Scope

•Resources and responsibilities for the application of the APF

• Step 1.3: Determine the resources required for the application of the APF

• Step 1.4 Define responsibilities in the application of the APF

•Stakeholders

• Step 1.5: Identify and engage stakeholders

•Information on climate, climate change and extreme weather events

• Step 1.6: Collect data and information on climate, climate change and extreme weather events

Stage 2: Assess

•Impacts of climate change

• Step 2.1: Identify impacts of climate change

•Risk Assessment

• Step 2.2: Assess the risks associated with the different climate change impacts

•List of Adaptation options

• Step 2.3: Compile a list of adaptation options

•Identify priority adaptation measures

• Step 2.4: Analyse the options and prioritize adaptation measures

Stage 3: Plan

• Step 3: Plan the adaptation measures





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Who should use the APF?

The APF has been designed to be used by anyone promoting an initiative, be it a policy, a program, a plan, a project or an activity, be it public or private, that is interested in assessing the risks faced by such initiative associated with climate change impacts and to determine measures to reduce such risks (adaptation measures).

When to use the APF?

The APF may be used at any time during the planning or implementation of any initiative, Ideally, the APF is applied in the early stages of the planning phase, so that any adaptation measure can be included in the actual planning of the initiative. The application of the APF during the implementation phase may result in the identification of a more limited set of adaptation options, but that should not constitute a deterrent from applying the APF.

How to use the APF?

The APF is a step by step tool. It is good practice that each step is completed before moving into the next step. There should be information to answer each question in each phase of the APF. However, there is no need to answer each one specifically. The questions serve the purpose of guiding the thought process more than they constitute a strict questionnaire. A template to register and report the findings in relation to each phase of the APF is provided as a resource.

What resources are available?

Specific Resources

Template for Reporting General Climate Change

Fact Sheet

Detailed Climate Change

Fact Sheet

Additional Resources

National Communications Draft National Adaptation

Plan

Before you start

There are several notable issues relating to climate change adaptation and the application of the APF that are helpful to clarify prior to providing a detailed description of the APF stages:

Climate change adaptation is not a ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach. The APF recognises

this and ensures that the approach is tailored to the specific goals and circumstances

of the organisation applying it.

The APF is generic. It can be applied to any policy, plan or project where the goal is to

develop an understanding of climate change and related extreme weather risks and

potential adaptation options.





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The APF is designed as a self-contained package that can be applied by an individual

or wider team with a climate change adaptation remit.

Although there are five defined stages for adaptation planning and implementation, the

framework does not include the phases of implementation and monitoring, as it is

focused on adaptation planning.

The three stages of the APF – Frame, Assess and Plan, and their constituent tasks, are now described in detail.





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3 S T A G E 1 – F R A M E

The framing stage of the APF sets the context for the remainder of the process. The aim is to establish the goals and scope of the application of the APF. Once this has been done, decisions can be made concerning issues including the resources needed to deliver the task effectively.

The objectives of this stage of the APF are:

To clearly define the reason for the application of the APF and the goals and capacity of the

organisation(s) undertaking it.

To gather data on the sector(s) being considered during the application of the APF.

To gather relevant data on climate change trends and related extreme weather events to

enable an assessment of related impacts and risks.

3 . 1 G o a l s , s c o p e , r e s o u r c e s a n d s t a k e h o l d e r s

3 . 1 . 1 E s t a b l i s h t h e g o a l s o f t h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f t h e A P F

Step 1.1: Define the goals of the application of the APF

The goals for the application of the APF should be set out.

Examples of goals may include:

To develop an adaptation plan for a sector/city/project

To reduce costs associated with climate change or

To meet a legislative requirement

Frame

Assess

Plan (Imple-ment)

(Monitor and

Evaluate)





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3 . 1 . 2 D e f i n e t h e s c o p e o f t h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f t h e A P F

Step 1.2: Define the scope of the application of the APF

Step 1.2A: Define the thematic Scope Step 1.2B: Define the territorial Scope

The thematic scope of the application of the APF should be defined. Examples include:

Agriculture sector

Energy sector / sub-sector of hydropower production

Sector XYZ…

Project for renovation of irrigation system

Project to build leisure park in the margins of river ABC

Decision to build a sky resort or a wine SPA

The territorial scope of the application of the APF should be defined. Examples include:

Republic of Serbia

A region (e.g. Vojvodina)

A city or urban area (e.g. Nis)

A specific site (e.g. future resort in Fruska Gora)

3 . 1 . 3 R e s o u r c e s a n d r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s f o r t h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f t h e A P F

Step 1.3: Determine the resources required for the application of the APF

What is the estimated cost of applying the APF?

Where will the funding to undertake the APF be secured from? o Is funding already secured and available?

How many people are required to apply the APF? o What are the required fields of expertise?

Note: Applying the APF does not need to be a lengthy and resource intensive exercise.

The APF can be progressed as a rapid screening approach with a low commitment of

resources, or as a more intensive process involving data gathering and the engagement

of multiple staff over a longer period. The approach taken will influence the level of

resources needed to undertake the APF.

Step 1.4 Define responsibilities in the application of the APF

Establish roles and responsibilities of the individual(s) involved undertaking the APF: who

does what by when?

Note: it is important to gain interest and support from the highest levels of the organization within

which the APF is being applied.





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3 . 1 . 4 S t a k e h o l d e r s

Step 1.5: Identify and engage stakeholders

The next step is to identify the stakeholders that need to be involved in the application of

the APF in order to ensure a robust and sound technical analysis and to secure buy in of

the adaptation measures proposed as an outcome of the process. Stakeholders may

include decision makers, information holders, those impacted by climate change and

extreme weather events and those impacted by the implementation of adaptation

measures. They can be organised, where relevant, into the following categories:

National government

Local self-government

Non-governmental organization (environment, development, professional association…)

Private sector

Universities and Research Centres Local communities

It is important to prepare a plan for the engagement of stakeholders, determining when,

how and what for will each type of stakeholder will be engaged.

Stakeholder engagement can take many forms: from inviting them to a meeting/workshop

to participate in the decision making process, to informing them of the decision made by a

post on a social network or an ad in a newspaper. It all depends of the type of

stakeholders and of the objective in engaging such stakeholder.

3 . 2 I n f o r m a t i o n o n c l i m a t e , c l i m a t e c h a n g e a n d e x t r e m e w e a t h e r e v e n t s

Step 1.6: Collect data and information on climate, climate change and extreme weather events

Data on climate change and related extreme weather trends and hazards is needed to

undertake the APF.

As part of the APF process a description should be provided of:

Climate change and extreme weather related trends and hazards with the potential to

impact on the scope of the APF. Examples include flooding, drought, heat waves, rising

temperatures, reducing annual rainfall and increasing rainfall intensity.

Historical data related to relevant climate change and extreme weather hazards. This

can provide an indication of previous events and emerging climate change signals.

Necessary data includes:

o Temperature-related trends and extremes

o Precipitation-related trends and extremes

o Details of significant climate and extreme weather events that have occurred in the

past





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Future projections related to climate change and extreme weather hazards are needed

in order to understand the potential impacts of the changing climate. There are several

important considerations here:

o Climate change scenario: A range of future climate change scenarios is available for

the Republic of Serbia. It is recommended that a high greenhouse gas emissions

scenario be used as this represents a reasonable worst case and provides a good

basis for the risk assessment stage of the APF.

o Time horizon: Climate change projections are available for a range of future time

period. In terms of the time horizon to focus on, the 2050s is recommended as a good

basis for the risk assessment as this is sufficiently far in the future to account for

climate change, but not too distant as to make understanding the consequences of

related impacts an unrealistic task.

o Spatial scale: Climate change projections differ depending on the location being

considered. Projections for the Republic of Serbia, described in the climate data

factsheets, show some spatial variation across the country for temperature and

precipitation variables. This enables a spatially focused assessment to be made if

necessary. Alternatively, averages for the Republic of Serbia are also available.

o Climate variables: Projections can be accessed for temperature and precipitation

variables. Where possible, data on averages and extremes should be gathered.

Seasonal variations are evident for these climate variables across the Republic of

Serbia, and these should be recorded.

Sources of information

General Climate Fact

Sheet Detailed Climate Fact Sheet

National

Communications to the

UNFCCC

Draft National

Adaptation Plan

www.hidmet.gov.rs

www.klimatskepromene.gov.rs www.ipcc.ch





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4 S T A G E 2 – A S S E S S

This stage of the APF identifies the impacts of climate change and related extreme weather events, establishes which of these carry the highest level of risk and prioritises adaptation options to reduce these risks.

4 . 1 I m p a c t s o f c l i m a t e c h a n g e

Step 2.1: Identify impacts of climate change

List the impacts of climate change and extreme weather related trends and hazards related

to the scope of the APF (identified at stage 3.2). The focus here is on direct impacts (e.g.

flooding of electricity sub-stations). Although indirect impacts are also likely to occur (e.g.

costs due to loss of power to businesses following flooding of electricity sub-stations), these

are not covered by the APF.

How to identify impacts of climate change?

Expert Knowledge If the resources engaged in the application of the APF have the adequate technical and scientific knowledge, the identification of climate change impacts can be performed by them. Peer review/ external validation is recommended.

Literature Review National and international literature can provide the list of relevant climate change information. The National Communications to the UNFCCC is one of the key sources of information on climate change impacts in Serbia, as well as other national and sectorial documents concerning adaptation to climate change. Additionally, several international organizations have produced information about impacts of climate change in specific sectors (e.g. the work of the United Nations World Tourism Organization on tourism and climate change)

Stakeholder driven Taking into account the climate change information collected, their specific knowledge and their day-to-day experience, stakeholders can provide valuable information to identify climate change impacts.

Frame

Assess

Plan(Impleme

nt)

(Monitor and

Evaluate)





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It is good practice to identify impacts of climate change using a mix of the three approaches described above.

Illustrative example of climate change impacts on hydropower production identified through literature review, complemented by expert knowledge

Impact Group 1 - Climate change hazard: Falling precipitation leading to reduced flow and flow irregularity

Impact 1: Change in annual and seasonal working patterns of hydropower plants (HPPs)

Impact 2: Decrease quantity of water for hydropower production, due to demand for water from higher priority sectors (e.g. domestic water supply, irrigation, environmental flow)

Impact Group 2 - Climate change hazard: Increasing air temperature

Impact 3: Increase of surface evaporation, reducing water storage and power output

Impact Group 3 - Climate change hazard: Extreme precipitation events

Impact 4: Increased erosion and siltation can reduce reservoir storage capacity

Impact 5: Energy loss during floods

4 . 2 R i s k a s s e s s m e n t o f c l i m a t e c h a n g e i m p a c t s

Step 2.2: Assess the risks associated with the different climate change impacts

Risk is assessed based on the likelihood of climate change and extreme weather impacts

occurring multiplied by the consequences of impacts should they occur. Risk is high

where likelihood and consequence are assessed as high.

Step Assess the Likelihood Assess the consequence

This stage of the risk assessment aims to determine the likelihood of severe climate change and associated extreme weather hazard events occurring under the climate change scenario and future time period that provides the focus for risk assessment. This enables the likelihood of the impacts related to these events to be established. The following likelihood scale can be used as a basis to assess the likelihood of hazard events and impacts linked to these events: 1 – Low likelihood (Very unlikely that the

hazard event will occur)

2 – Moderate likelihood (Hazard event as

likely to occur as not)

3 – High likelihood (Likely that the hazard

event will occur)

The aim of this task is to assess the

severity of consequences associated with

the climate change and extreme weather

impacts, should they occur.

The assessment of the consequences of

impacts should be based around the

consideration of a reasonable worst case

scenario (i.e. the hazard event generating

the impacts is a major one, e.g. a

prolonged and severe heat wave, a

damaging flood event).

The following scale can be used to support

this assessment:

1 – Low consequence (The impact has little

or no negative implications)

2 – Moderate consequence (The impact

has some negative implications, but they





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4 – Very high likelihood (Virtually certain

that the hazard event will occur)

are at a scale that can be managed

enabling key functions to continue)

3 – High consequence (The impact has

widespread negative implications, which in

some cases may lead to sustained loss of

key functions)

4 – Severe consequence (The impact has

major negative implications, which in some

cases may lead to a complete loss of key

functions)

It is good practice to engage stakeholders in the risk assessment, in particular in the

assessment of the consequences.

It is recommended that the assessment of the likelihood be performed by an expert taking

into account the climate change information collected and that the proposal by the expert

is presented and discussed with stakeholders.

The assessment of consequence can be fully stakeholder-driven.

Likelihood * Consequence = Risk

The level of risk attached to the climate change and extreme weather impacts is determined by bringing together the assessments of impact likelihood and consequence. A matrix can be used to present the outputs of the risk assessment.

Illustrative example of a risk assessment matrix for hydropower production

Below is an example of a risk assessment matrix developed within the Climate Strategy and Action Plan project for the water – hydropower production sector.

The matrix enables the highest risk impacts to be identified. Depending on the outcome of the risk assessment, there may be more than one high risk. In this case, “Impact 4: Increased erosion and siltation can reduce reservoir storage capacity” was considered to pose the highest risk to the sector in Serbia.





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4 . 3 L i s t o f a d a p t a t i o n o p t i o n s

Step 2.3: Compile a list of adaptation options

The risk assessment identifies which climate change and extreme weather impacts present the highest risk to the APF theme/sector. The next step is to consider adaptation options that could be implemented in order to reduce the severity of these risks. For the purpose of this APF, an adaptation option is an opportunity available to address a given climate change risk, irrespective of any considerations related to cost, acceptability, feasibility, co-benefits or negative impacts. The list of adaptation options should consist of a wide range, comprehensive identification of all the options at hand to address the highest risks posed by climate change impacts. The list, therefore, includes ALL possible options to address the highest climate change risks. A brief description of each option and its goals should be provided, referring to an annex or other sources of information where necessary. A list of adaptation options should be developed for each of the highest risk identified as an outcome of the risk assessment.

How to compile a list of adaptation options?

Expert Knowledge If the resources engaged in the application of the APF have the adequate technical and scientific knowledge, the identification adaptation options to address the highest risks from climate change impacts can be performed by them. Peer review/ external validation is recommended.

Literature Review National and international literature can provide the list of relevant climate change information. The SNC and draft NAP include details of a range of adaptation options connected to sectors that are prominent within the Republic of Serbia. The European Commission’s

Climate Adapt2 website includes a database that provides information of a number of other options.

Stakeholder driven Stakeholders are in a good position to propose a long list of adaptation options to address the highest risks from climate change impacts. It is good practice to, at least, ask stakeholders to validate the list of adaptation options compiled either through expert knowledge or literature review.

Illustrative example of a list of adaptation options to address the highest risks from climate change impacts on hydropower production

Below in an example of a list of adaptation options (identified within the Climate Strategy and Action Plan Project) that address the highest climate change risk (extreme precipitation events leading to increased erosion and siltation reducing reservoir storage capacity) to the hydro-electric power sector. Note: It is likely that there will be more than one list of adaptation options, each addressing different risks. However, in this particular situation, the risk assessment resulted in only one impact being considered highest risk.

Highest risk(s) (as per the risk assessment matrix)

List of adaptation options

Increased erosion and siltation can reduce reservoir storage capacity

1. Construction of torrential barriers (barriers to prevent reservoir siltation)

2 http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/knowledge/adaptation-information/adaptation-measures

http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/knowledge/adaptation-information/adaptation-measures





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2. Increase in water storage capacity 3. Pumped storage HPPs 4. Increase in installed power of HPPs 5. Planning of small HPPs 6. Development of mathematical models for

optimal management of HPPs 7. Improvement of the early warning

systems for extreme climate and hydrological events

4 . 4 I d e n t i f y p r i o r i t y a d a p t a t i o n m e a s u r e s

Step 2.4: Analyse the options and prioritize adaptation measures

The next step in the process is to identify, from the options included in the long list, priority adaptation measures that will be taken into the planning stage. For the purpose of this APF, an adaptation measure is selected from the list of adaptation options after being subject to a selection/prioritization process. In this APF, a multi-criteria analysis is proposed as a method to select and prioritize adaptation measures from the long list of adaptation options.

Multi-criteria analysis

The Multi-criteria analysis is a systematic way for decision-makers from communities, the private sector, and government analyse the wide range of information that may be relevant to making adaptation choices3. This process may be more or less complex, more or less driven by stakeholders, more or less reliant on computer models or in expert guess. In order to make the APF a user-friendly tool, a very simple approach, which may be stakeholder driven, is proposed.

This selection / prioritization procedure is only relevant when the resources available at the moment are not sufficient to implement all available options. If sufficient technical, technological and financial resources are available, all options can do directly to the planning stage. However, that is very rarely the case.

The table below presents the criteria, their description, the weight to be attributed to each criteria and the scoring options for each criteria.

Criteria Description of criteria

Weight Scoring the options against the criteria

Effectiveness How effective is the adaptation option at reducing the target impact?

1 – No evidence it reduces the target impact 2 – Limited evidence it can reduce the target impact 3 – Proven to reduce the target impact

Efficiency Do the benefits of the adaptation option exceed any associated costs?

1 – Benefits unlikely to exceed costs 2 – Benefits likely to exceed costs 3 – Benefits significantly exceed costs

3 https://www.climatelinks.org/resources/analyzing-climate-change-adaptation-options-using-multi-criteria-analysis





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Mitigation Does the adaptation option support or conflict with the achievement of mitigation goals?

1 – Conflicts with the achievement of mitigation goals 2 – Potential to support the achievement of mitigation goals 3 – Strongly supports the achievement of mitigation goals

Urgency Is the target impact that the adaptation option aims to reduce already being experienced?

1 – No experience of the impact 2 – Isolated records of the impact 3 – Impact regularly experienced

Multifunctionality Does the adaptation option generate other benefits in addition to addressing the target impact?

1 – Solely addresses the target impact 2 – May generate several benefits in addition to addressing the target impact 3 – Will generate a range of benefits in addition to addressing the target impact

The first step is to attribute a weight to each criteria, in order to represent the relative importance of the criteria. A simple scale from 1-3 is recommended, with 1 representing relatively low importance, 2 moderate importance and 3 relatively high importance. For example, if effectiveness is considered the most important criteria, then the weight is 3. If it is considered the least important criteria, the weigh attributed will be 1. If all criteria have the same importance, then they should all be weighted 1. It is good practice that the criteria weight is the same for all the measures. More criteria could be added to this table as necessary.

Performing the multi-criteria analysis

The multi-criteria analysis can be performed either by experts or through stakeholder engagement. It is good practice that, when relevant, there is some stakeholder engagement at this phase.

After attributing weight to each criteria, each adaptation option will be subject to the multi-criteria analysis, by attributing a score to each criteria.





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Illustrative example of the application of the multi-criteria analysis to adaptation options in the water – hydropower production sector

Ranking and prioritising adaptation options

The scoring of the adaptation options using a multi-criteria analysis results in a quantitative TOTAL SCORE which allows for the adaptation options to be ranked in relation to each other. The options which scored higher, will be ranked at the top and those ranked lowest will be ranked at the bottom. A threshold for the top ranking options to be prioritized will need to be set.

Illustrative example of ranking and prioritising of adaptation options in the water – hydropower production sector

The following table shows the ranking of adaptation options ranked in accordance to the respective scoring resulting from the MCA.

A threshold was set at the top 3 options that will be converted into adaptation measures in the planning phase.

Criteria Score Weight Weight * TOTAL Effectiveness 3 3 8Efficiency 2 3 7Mitigation 2 2 4Urgency 3 2 5Multifunctionality 2 3 6







31

Name of option: Improvement of the early warning systems for extreme climate

30

27

22

27

22

28

Name of option: Increase installed power of HPPs

Name of option: Planning MHE with existing HPPs, with the usage of ecological

Name of option: Utilization of mathematical models for optimal operation of

Name of option: Construction of flooding/torrential barriers

Name of option: Increase in water storage capacity

Name of option: Pumped storage HPPs





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In this example, the following three options will be converted into adaptation measures in the planning phase:

Improvement of the early warning systems for extreme climate and hydrological events

Construction of flooding/torrential barriers

Utilization of mathematical models for optimal operation of HPPs

Rank Measure Score

1Improvement of the early warning systems for extreme climate and hydrological

events31

2 Construction of flooding/torrential barriers 30

3 Utilization of mathematical models for optimal operation of HPPs 28

4 Increase in water storage capacity 27

5 Increase installed power of HPPs 27

6 Planning MHE with existing HPPs, with the usage of ecological flows 22

7 Pumped storage HPPs 22

Rating based on Scores





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5 S T A G E 3 – P L A N

The planning stage is the most case-specific phase of the APF, as the planning tools, requirements and practices vary greatly from organization to organization. The template proposed in the APF serves a programmatic approach (usually from a public perspective) to adaptation planning and is therefore not suitable for project or activity planning.

Step 3: Plan the adaptation measures

At a minimum, the following elements should be taken into account in the planning of the

adaptation measures4:

Roles and responsibilities, explicitly considering the need for coordination between authorities at all levels;

Detailed timetable for implementation and provisions for revision;

Estimation of human and financial resources needed;

Funding possibilities;

Open research questions and ways to close knowledge gaps;

Potential barriers to action and mechanisms to overcome these;

Mechanisms to monitor and evaluate the implementation success.

Illustrative example of a planning of an adaptation measure for the water – hydropower production sector

Construction of flooding/torrential flood barriers and additional measures in the basin

Description of the measure

Construction of small barriers (usually concrete or stone) along water course prone to high torrent flow in order to reduce the speed of water flow and sediment deposit in reservoirs. Additional measures and works in the catchment area (e.g. afforestation, terracing of hillsides, biotechnical works, etc.) are also needed to support this measure.

Next steps for the measure

– Assess where barriers could be developed and select priority sites. – Develop detailed costings for new barriers and secure funding

from state, private and international funding sources to enable their implementation.

– Research and prioritise between the range of additional catchment based measures that could be implemented to reduce erosion and siltation. Assess the costs of different measures and secure funding from state, private and international funding sources to support their implementation.

4 http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/knowledge/tools/adaptation-support-tool/step-5/action-plan

Frame

Assess

Plan(Implement)

(Monitor and

Evaluate)





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Timeframe for beginning implementation

Within two years of adopting the Climate Strategy and Action Plan

Type of measure

Regulatory

Financial

Technological/Technical/ Infrastructural

X

Informational / Educational

Organizational/managerial/ Institutional

Climate change impact(s) addressed by the measure

Extreme rainfall leading to increased erosion in the catchment area and subsequent siltation (sedimentation) which can reduce reservoir storage capacity

Experience of the climate change impact(s)

Impacts are already being experienced

X

Impacts are projected for the future

X – Impact projected to intensify with climate change

Objectives of the measure

Reduce the siltation (sedimentation) of water storage reservoirs

Conservation and protection of catchment area

Institution(s) responsible for development and implementation

Development

Ministry for Agriculture, Forestry and Water Management

Republic Directorate for Water

Implementation

Ministry for Agriculture, Forestry and Water Management

Republic Directorate for Water

Local Self-Governments

Stakeholder(s) relevant for development and implementation

Development

Public Water Authorities

Local Self-Governments

General public

NGOs

Implementation

Srbijavode (Public Water Management Company)

Public Investment Management Office

General public

NGOs

Territorial coverage National coverage X

Regional coverage (specify)

Complexity of the adaptation measure

Simple and fast process of development and implementation

Construction of barriers

Long and complex process of development and implementation

Additional measures in the catchment area

Lifetime of the adaptation measure

Less than 5 years

5-15 years

Over 15 years X

Follow up and maintenance of the adaptation measure during its lifetime

No follow up and maintenance required

Minimal follow up and maintenance required (briefly describe)

Regular follow up and maintenance required (briefly describe)

X - Inspection and repair (if necessary) after each flood event





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Estimated cost associated with developing and implementing the measure

Less than RSD 12 million

RSD 12 million- RSD 120 million

More than RSD 120 million X

Source of finance

State Budget X

Private financing X

Innovative climate financing

International Cooperation X

Additional benefits associated with the adaptation measure

Only addresses the target climate change impact

Delivers further benefits in addition to addressing the target climate change impact (briefly describe)

Protection of vulnerable areas and structures from torrential floods, Dissipation of the energy of debris and torrent flow

Impact on mitigation

Measure may increase GHG emissions

Measure may reduce GHG emissions

Reducing sediment deposit in the reservoir, will increase the amount of energy stored, allowing for a greater generation of carbon free electricity.

Compliance with current legal framework

The Law on Agricultural Land (OG RS 62/06, 41/09. 112/15) introduces anti-erosion measures for areas where erosion is a potential risk (which may in some cases overlap with the areas where erosion needs to be fought in the scope of this measure, namely related to additional measures in the catchment area).

Identification of additional technical and administrative requirements for key stakeholders

The identification and mapping of areas prone to torrential flooding and erosion (as required by the Law on Water) is costly, which is the main reason it is yet to be done to a relevant extent5.

Financial resources to public water management companies need to be increased for the implementation of the measures. Srbjavode estimates the need for around 1.5 billion RSD annually (from 2014 to

2019) for the protection of the most threatened areas in Serbia6.

The inclusion of a measure for the construction barriers to flooding/torrential floods in the Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan does not require additional technical and administrative resources to those that would otherwise have to occur, given that it is aligned with the goals and objectives of the polices currently in place in relation to enhanced forest management, including with the plans of the public water management companies.

Key barriers to developing and implementing the measure and possible ways to overcome them

Lack of funds, including at Srbjavoda and Vojvodinavode and local self-governments for implementation of measures.

Monitoring indicators

Indicators for implementation process Barriers built (number)

5 OSCE publication: Local Communities and Challenges of Torrential Floods, view In January, 2018 at

http://www.osce.org/serbia/148301 6 Kljajic, N. Popovic, V. Grujic, B (2016) Protection Against Detrimental Effects from Waters in the Republic of

Serbia, view in January, 2018 at http://scindeks-clanci.ceon.rs/data/pdf/0352-3462/2016/0352-34621602585K.pdf





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Investment in barriers (RSD)

Indicators for outcome Volume-elevation curve of the

reservoir and reservoir cross sections (sample reservoirs)

Links to reports and case studies where available

http://www.srbijavode.rs/sr-latin/home/vesti_naslovna/pregrade_vodotoci.html







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6 C O N C L U S I O N S A N D R E C O M M E N D A T I O N S

The Adaptation Planning Framework proposed above provides a framework for future projects, policies and measures to assess their adaptation requirements and includes, therefore, three stages to that end:

Frame

Assess

Plan

Two other stages are typical of any management process, but fall outside the scope of this APF. These are the stages of implementation and monitoring.

It is recommended that this tool, together with other tools or separate, is widely spread among Serbian stakeholders both at public and private level and that training on its use is provided to such stakeholders, in order to enhance its use and to promote the increasing of resilience of Serbia to climate change.

climate strategy & action plan republic of serbia · 3.1 goals, scope, resources and...

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