Climate Variability and Climate Variability and Change and their Health Change and their Health Effects Effects in the Caribbeanin the Caribbean

Joan L. Aron, Ph.D.Joan L. Aron, Ph.D.

Vulnerability Associated with Vulnerability Associated with

Climate Variability and Climate Climate Variability and Climate Change inChange in

Central America and the CaribbeanCentral America and the Caribbean

IAI Summer Institute Oct 26 - IAI Summer Institute Oct 26 - Nov 8, 2003Nov 8, 2003

Santo Domingo, Dominican Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic Republic

Alliance of Small Island Alliance of Small Island StatesStates

“Perhaps when the human health costs of climate change are appreciated and added to the material costs and environmental damages faced by small island States a new spirit of cooperation and partnership will emerge.”

His Excellency Tuiloma Neroni Slade Ambassador of Samoa to the United Nations Chairman, Alliance of Small Island States

Barbados, May 21, 2002

Alliance of Small Island Alliance of Small Island StatesStates

AOSIS: Coalition of small island and AOSIS: Coalition of small island and low-lying coastal countrieslow-lying coastal countries• Africa, Caribbean, Indian Ocean, Africa, Caribbean, Indian Ocean,

Mediterranean, Pacific, South China SeaMediterranean, Pacific, South China Sea Issues of environment and Issues of environment and

developmentdevelopment Vulnerability to the adverse effects Vulnerability to the adverse effects

of global climate changeof global climate changeSEA LEVEL RISE

CHANGES IN RAINFALL REGIMES

Small Island Developing Small Island Developing States Factors increasing States Factors increasing vulnerabilityvulnerability

Small physical sizeSmall physical size Surrounded by large expanses of oceanSurrounded by large expanses of ocean Relative isolationRelative isolation Limited natural resourcesLimited natural resources Growing populationsGrowing populations Exposure to damaging natural disastersExposure to damaging natural disasters Low economic diversificationLow economic diversification Limited funds, human resources, skillsLimited funds, human resources, skills

Global Climate ChangeGlobal Climate ChangeSea level riseSea level rise

Displacement of coastal Displacement of coastal communitiescommunities

Disturbance of agricultural activityDisturbance of agricultural activity Coastal erosion, beach loss, Coastal erosion, beach loss,

decline in tourismdecline in tourism Intrusion of sea water into Intrusion of sea water into

freshwater aquifersfreshwater aquifers

Multiple Time ScalesMultiple Time ScalesSea level riseSea level rise

Sea level rise (long time scale)

Storm event (short time scale)

Increased vulnerability to storm surges, coastal flooding

Global Climate ChangeGlobal Climate ChangeThreat of sea level riseThreat of sea level rise

Hurricane Lenny Hurricane Lenny Eastern CaribbeanEastern Caribbean

Global Climate ChangeGlobal Climate ChangeChanges in rainfall Changes in rainfall regimesregimes

Prospect of more frequent droughts Prospect of more frequent droughts and floods in tropical ocean regions in and floods in tropical ocean regions in which small island states are locatedwhich small island states are located

Water supply is a major concernWater supply is a major concern Experience of small island states is a Experience of small island states is a

microcosm of the global picture microcosm of the global picture International Year of Freshwater 2003International Year of Freshwater 2003

Water ResourcesWater ResourcesGlobal issueGlobal issue

International Year of Freshwater 2003

Multiple Time ScalesMultiple Time ScalesChanges in rainfall Changes in rainfall regimesregimes

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation The El Niño/Southern Oscillation ( ENSO ) affects global weather ( ENSO ) affects global weather patterns, cycling every two to seven patterns, cycling every two to seven years years

Rainfall regimes shiftRainfall regimes shift• Floods or droughtsFloods or droughts

Responses to ENSO help to reduce Responses to ENSO help to reduce adverse impacts of climate on healthadverse impacts of climate on health

ENSO 1997-1998ENSO 1997-1998Drought in Pacific IslandsDrought in Pacific Islands

ENSO 1997-1998ENSO 1997-1998Drought in Pacific IslandsDrought in Pacific Islands

More skin disease in FSM, MarshallsMore skin disease in FSM, Marshalls Poor air quality from wildfires in Guam, Poor air quality from wildfires in Guam,

Pohnpei, Yap, PalauPohnpei, Yap, Palau Relief food shipments Relief food shipments Information campaign reduced incidence Information campaign reduced incidence

of diarrheal disease in Pohnpei hospital of diarrheal disease in Pohnpei hospital Water storage and conservationWater storage and conservation Many diseases under study ( dengue, ... )Many diseases under study ( dengue, ... )

Vector-borne DiseasesVector-borne DiseasesDengueDengue

Vector-borne DiseasesVector-borne DiseasesDengueDengue

The Caribbean region has experienced a The Caribbean region has experienced a marked increase in the incidence of marked increase in the incidence of dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever in the past decade in the past decade (Caribbean Epidemiology (Caribbean Epidemiology Centre - CAREC)Centre - CAREC)

Assessments of the impact of climate Assessments of the impact of climate change on the health sector point to a change on the health sector point to a potential increase in the incidence of potential increase in the incidence of dengue dengue (Adapting to Climate Change in the (Adapting to Climate Change in the Caribbean)Caribbean)

Vector-borne DiseasesVector-borne DiseasesDengueDengue

Major factors driving the spread of dengue include population growth, rapid urbanization, lack of effective mosquito control and movement of new dengue virus strains between countries. The global climate system is itself complex. Scientists are researching the role of climate and the best ways to use climate data in dengue control.

Vector-borne DiseasesVector-borne DiseasesDengueDengue

Regional research project to devise a Regional research project to devise a climate-based early warning system to climate-based early warning system to predict and mitigate outbreaks of predict and mitigate outbreaks of dengue fever in the Caribbean dengue fever in the Caribbean • Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change

[AIACC][AIACC]• University of the West Indies (UWI), Mona, JamaicaUniversity of the West Indies (UWI), Mona, Jamaica

• Caribbean Epidemiology Centre (CAREC]Caribbean Epidemiology Centre (CAREC] • IAI-supported Collaborative Research Network on IAI-supported Collaborative Research Network on

Diagnostics and Prediction of Climate Variability and Human Diagnostics and Prediction of Climate Variability and Human

Health Impacts in the Tropical AmericasHealth Impacts in the Tropical Americas

Vector-borne DiseasesVector-borne DiseasesDengueDengue

Another project applies Hadley Another project applies Hadley climate model version 3 to project climate model version 3 to project a modest temperature rise in the a modest temperature rise in the eastern Caribbean and a reduction eastern Caribbean and a reduction in rainfallin rainfall

Statistical and neural net early Statistical and neural net early warning system for dengue on the warning system for dengue on the island of Javaisland of Java

Vector-borne DiseasesVector-borne DiseasesMalariaMalaria

Vector-borne DiseasesVector-borne DiseasesMalariaMalaria

Two study sites in Colombia as part of the Two study sites in Colombia as part of the IAI-supported Collaborative Research IAI-supported Collaborative Research Network on climate variability and healthNetwork on climate variability and health

Link between environmental temperature Link between environmental temperature and the number of malaria casesand the number of malaria cases

Study of a Bioclimatological Monitoring Study of a Bioclimatological Monitoring System in Institute of Meteorology in CubaSystem in Institute of Meteorology in Cuba

Other Climate and Health Other Climate and Health IssuesIssues

Urban heat islands (San Juan, Puerto Urban heat islands (San Juan, Puerto Rico]Rico]

17-fold increase in asthma since 1973; 17-fold increase in asthma since 1973; 19.8% prevalence currently [Barbados]19.8% prevalence currently [Barbados]

Algal blooms in the sea Algal blooms in the sea [Adapting to [Adapting to Climate Change in the Caribbean]Climate Change in the Caribbean]

Nutritional deficiencies due to Nutritional deficiencies due to decreased food production decreased food production [Adapting to [Adapting to Climate Change in the Caribbean]Climate Change in the Caribbean]

Climate and Food Security Climate and Food Security in Central Americain Central America

PAHO is developing a project on PAHO is developing a project on climate and food security in climate and food security in Central AmericaCentral America

PAHO’s Nutrition Institute of PAHO’s Nutrition Institute of Central America and Panama Central America and Panama (INCAP) in Guatemala (INCAP) in Guatemala

Cuba, 1895-1898Cuba, 1895-1898Epidemics in war & peaceEpidemics in war & peace

Wartime can increase crowding, contact, Wartime can increase crowding, contact, migration, vulnerability to diseasemigration, vulnerability to disease• Spanish military ordered rural civilians to Spanish military ordered rural civilians to

towns and halted transportation of foodstuffstowns and halted transportation of foodstuffs Different vulnerabilities to different Different vulnerabilities to different

diseases in different groupsdiseases in different groups• Spanish soldiers lacked immunity to yellow Spanish soldiers lacked immunity to yellow

feverfever• Cuban civilians lacked immunity to smallpoxCuban civilians lacked immunity to smallpox

Regional InteractionsRegional InteractionsAfrican dust in the African dust in the CaribbeanCaribbean

Regional InteractionsRegional InteractionsAfrican dust in the African dust in the CaribbeanCaribbean

African dust is transported in the African dust is transported in the atmosphere across the Atlantic Ocean atmosphere across the Atlantic Ocean to the Caribbean. to the Caribbean.

Drought conditions in Africa have led Drought conditions in Africa have led to increasing amounts of dust over the to increasing amounts of dust over the past few decades. past few decades.

Ongoing studies probe the effects of Ongoing studies probe the effects of dust on human health, coral reefs, dust on human health, coral reefs, agriculture and livestock.agriculture and livestock.

Regional InteractionsRegional InteractionsRiver outflows from S. River outflows from S. AmericaAmerica

Regional InteractionsRegional InteractionsRiver outflows from S. River outflows from S. AmericaAmerica

Massive kills of reef fish from Trinidad & Massive kills of reef fish from Trinidad & Tobago to Barbados - July to October 1999Tobago to Barbados - July to October 1999

Freshwater bacterium Freshwater bacterium Streptococcus iniaeStreptococcus iniae isolated from dead and dying fishisolated from dead and dying fish

High rainfall in northern S. America in 1999High rainfall in northern S. America in 1999 Large quantities of fresh water from Large quantities of fresh water from

Amazon and Orinoco river basinsAmazon and Orinoco river basins Lower salinities, higher temperatures, Lower salinities, higher temperatures,

unusual reverse currents in the Caribbeanunusual reverse currents in the Caribbean

Public Health ResponsePublic Health Response

“Ministries of Health should play a central role in this response -- but should also remember that finding enduring solutions will depend on inter-sectoral communication and convergence.”

Professor Tony McMichael Director, National Centre of Epidemiology and Population Health Australian National University

Barbados, May 21, 2002

Inter-Agency Network Inter-Agency Network on Climate and Human on Climate and Human HealthHealth

World Health Organization World Health Organization

World Meteorological OrganizationWorld Meteorological Organization

United Nations Environment United Nations Environment ProgrammeProgramme

and their regional offices

Inter-Agency Network Inter-Agency Network Workshops in small island Workshops in small island statesstates

Pacific Ocean: Apia, Samoa, 2000Pacific Ocean: Apia, Samoa, 2000• WHO Regional Office for the Western PacificWHO Regional Office for the Western Pacific• WMO Subregional Office for the South PacificWMO Subregional Office for the South Pacific

Caribbean Sea: St. Philip, Barbados, 2002Caribbean Sea: St. Philip, Barbados, 2002• Pan American Health OrganizationPan American Health Organization• Office of Caribbean Program CoordinationOffice of Caribbean Program Coordination• UNEP Regional Office for Latin Amer. & Carib.UNEP Regional Office for Latin Amer. & Carib.

Indian Ocean: Maldives, 2003 ( December )Indian Ocean: Maldives, 2003 ( December )• WHO Regional Office for South-East AsiaWHO Regional Office for South-East Asia

Principal Partners in Principal Partners in Caribbean Meeting on Caribbean Meeting on BarbadosBarbados

Barbados Ministries

Health; Physical Development & Environment

Caribbean Organizations

CPACC; CEHI; CAREC; CIMHU.S. Donors

EPA; NOAA; NASACanadian Donors

Health; Environment

Next Steps in Climate and Next Steps in Climate and Health Health

Recommendations from workshop Recommendations from workshop participants for enhancing awareness, participants for enhancing awareness, using data, and strengthening institutionsusing data, and strengthening institutions

Coordination of sharing of information Coordination of sharing of information and networking of regional organizationsand networking of regional organizations

Maldives workshop (Dec. 2003)Maldives workshop (Dec. 2003) Guidelines for national vulnerability and Guidelines for national vulnerability and

adaptation assessments of health adaptation assessments of health impacts of climate changeimpacts of climate change

Climate Change and Climate Change and Human Health: Risks and Human Health: Risks and ResponsesResponses

WHO Publication in 2003 edited by Tony WHO Publication in 2003 edited by Tony McMichael et al.McMichael et al.

Interagency Network on Climate and Interagency Network on Climate and Human Health (WHO, WMO, UNEP]Human Health (WHO, WMO, UNEP]

Seeks to describe the context and Seeks to describe the context and process of global climate change, its process of global climate change, its actual or likely impacts on health, and actual or likely impacts on health, and how human societies and their how human societies and their governments should respondgovernments should respond

Caribbean Community Caribbean Community Climate Change CentreClimate Change Centre

Approved by CARICOM Heads of Approved by CARICOM Heads of Government in 2002 and effectively starting Government in 2002 and effectively starting in 2003in 2003

Host territory is BelizeHost territory is Belize Mandated to act as an executing agency for Mandated to act as an executing agency for

regional climate change programs and regional climate change programs and projectsprojects

Advisory mechanism on climate change Advisory mechanism on climate change policy to the CARICOM Secretariat and its policy to the CARICOM Secretariat and its member countries member countries

Mesoamerican and Mesoamerican and Caribbean Geospatial Caribbean Geospatial Alliance (MACGA)Alliance (MACGA)

MACGA infrastructure starting in 2003 MACGA infrastructure starting in 2003 Improve access and distribution of Improve access and distribution of

existing and new spatial datasetsexisting and new spatial datasets Supported by the U.S. Agency for Supported by the U.S. Agency for

International DevelopmentInternational Development Technical leadership from the U.S. Technical leadership from the U.S.

Geological Survey EROS Data CenterGeological Survey EROS Data Center

Sunset in Sunset in BarbadosBarbados