climate variation sensitivity in building energy simulation · 2017-11-19 · –max simulation...
TRANSCRIPT
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Climate Variation Sensitivity in
Building Energy Simulation
Presented By:
Roger
Cladingboel
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Learning Objectives
• Understand the difference between RMY/TRY/TMY, AMY, and XMY climate files.
• Understand fundamentals differences in data collection and analysis methods for creating TMY & XMY files.
• Understand the impact climate change is having on EUI across multiple building types and multiple climate zones in the US and Canada.
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Acknowledgements
• Nathan Kegel, Megan Tosh, Liam Buckley, IES
• Shona O’Dea, DLR Group
• Craig Burton, PositivEnergy Practice
• Ralph Muehlheisen, Argonne National Lab
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Previous Research
• Loveland, J.E. & Brown, G.Z. (1989) Impacts of Climate Change on the Energy Performance of Buildings in the United States
• Crawley, D. (1998) Which weather data should you use for energy simulation of commercial buildings?
• Crawley, D. (2008) Building performance simulation: a tool for policymaking• Sustainable United Nations (2009), Buildings and Climate Change: Summary for
Decision Makers• Larsen, et. al. (2011) Green Building and Climate Resilience: Understanding
impacts and preparing for changing conditions• Bhandari, Srhestha, New (2012) Evaluation of weather data sets for building
simulation
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Why care about the Weather?
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Why Care About the Climate?
Annual average land surface temperature compared against a 1960-1990 average in °C
Source: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/time_series.html
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Land and ocean global mean
Annual average land surface temperature compared against a 1960-1990 average in °C
Source: https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs
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Annual average land surface temperature compared against a 1960-1990 average in °C
Source: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/time_series.html
Atlanta
Brisbane
Melbourne
Cairns
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Annual average land surface temperature compared against a 1960-1990 average in °C
Source: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/time_series.html
Atlanta
Miami
Fairbanks
Brisbane
Melbourne
Cairns
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Impacts of Climate Change on Building Design & Retrofit
• More frequent extremes– Temperatures, solar radiation, storms, floods, etc.
• Changes in “optimized” solutions– Reduced frequency of “typical” year; increased frequency of “extreme”
years• Cost to building owners
– Insurance premiums due to more extreme weather• Changes to payback calculations, ROI, IRR, etc.
– Passive strategies may be more/less effective• Changes to design recommendations
– Should “traditional local” architecture change?• Changes to Standard 90.1/189
– EUI changes to baseline models driven by climate change
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Fundamentals of Weather Data
Multi-SensorRadar Based
Reanalysis ModelsSatellite Based
MADIS – Quality Assured METAR (Ground
Observation Data)
Climate Forecast System Reanalysis –
NOAAs global re-analysis dataset
combining satellites, balloons, radar and
ground observations
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Combining CFSR and METARHourly
DataBlended METAR/CFSR data set
Gap Filled
Interpolated
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Creation of XMY Files
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Creation of TMY Files
TMY 3:
TMY 15:
TMY 7:
1985-2014
2000-2014
2008-2014
Each Variable is weighted
▪ Min/max Temperature: 1/20
▪ Avg Temperature: 2/20
▪ Min/max Dewpoint: 1/20
▪ Avg Dewpoint: 2/20
▪ Min/Max Windspeed: 2/20
▪ Avg GHI/DNI: 5/20
▪ Short Term and long term
weighted averages are
compared
▪ Output is one year of data with
these typical months
▪ Interfaces are smoothed with
Boxcar 5 method
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XMY vs. TMY
XMY Strengths:
• Ideal for modeling
building performance
in extreme conditions
• Aids in understanding
the range of a climate
over a number of years
TMY Strengths:
• Ideal for modeling
building performance in
historically typical
conditions
• Displays the most
typical weather patterns
for a range of years
XMY weaknesses:
• Would not optimize
model for historically
typical conditions
• Can be skewed by a
once in a generation
extreme year
TMY Weaknesses:
• Is not representative
of highly volatile
climates
• Does not capture
extreme conditions
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AMY Comparison
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TMY2 vs. TMY3 Comparison
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TMY3 Comparison
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EU
IK
btu
/sf/yr
Option 1
90.1-2004U=.46 SHGC=.26
Option 2U=.30 SHGC=.38
Option 3
MN 2000 CodeU=.40 SHGC=.70
Option 4U=.21 SHGC=.37
Previous Work
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ASHRAE Climate Zones
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Other weather sources:
• Meteonorm – software approach, stochastic and interpolation weather file creation from global monthly data.– Climate change scenarios 3No. IPCC– Extreme years P10, P90 etc
• Local XMY (Extreme Weather Year files) creation on request – Exemplary Energy etc.
• Weathershift – online algorithmic approach converting existing EPW files.
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Weathershift service:
• This tool uses data from global climate change modeling to produce EPW weather files adjusted for changing climate conditions. Cost to building owners
• The projected data can be viewed for three future time periods based on the emission scenario selected to the left.Passive strategies may be more/less effective
• The RCP’s (Representative Concentration Pathways) are greenhouse gas emission scenarios for the 21st century that result in the CO2 equivalent atmospheric concentrations
• Weathershift adjusts weatherfiles for future climate conditions based on RCP 4.5 (moderately aggressive mitigation) and RCP 8.5 (business as usual)
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GHG Concentrations / Emission Scenarios
RCP 8.5 – Business As Usual, RCP 4.5 more typical
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Predicted temperature increase scenarios, 10/50/90th percentiles default
• Typical city RCP 8.5 2090 prediction
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Sydney EPW - weathershifted
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Sydney EPW - weathershifted
Default EPW
2050 RCP 8.5 90th
Percentile
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The Research Project
• Used geometry from DOE Reference Buildings• Used 90.1-2007 PRM Space-by-Space baseline• 16 Reference Building Types• 16 Climate Zones• 8 Climate Data Sets per Climate Zone
– 5 TMY (or CWEC)– 3 XMY
• 2,048 Simulations
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Parametric Tool
Features:• Grouping can vary studies i.e:
• weather variable x7 (then)• extract variable x3 (then)• flow variable x3
• Total of 13 simulations
• Or variables can be ‘Combined’ then the variables that are defined as ‘Link’ will run as follows:
• weather variable x1 • (then for that weather) extract variable x3 • (then for that weather) flow variable x3
• repeat for each weather variable
• Total of 42 simulations
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Reference Buildings
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Locations Used
• 1A – Miami, FL• 2A – Houston, TX• 2B – Phoenix, AZ• 3A – Atlanta, GA• 3B – Las Vegas, NV• 3C – San Francisco, CA• 4A – Baltimore, MD• 4B – Albuquerque, NM• 4C – Portland, OR• 5A – Chicago, IL• 5B – Boulder, CO• 5C – Vancouver, BC• 6A – Minneapolis, MN• 6B – Helena, MT• 7 – Duluth, MN• 8 – Fairbanks, AK
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Method
1. Selected Location2. Created Geometry/Zones3. Assigned constructions
1. ASHRAE 90.1-2007 baseline for new construction4. Assigned internal gains/schedules
1. ASHRAE 90.1-2007 Space-by-Space Method5. Created HVAC systems
1. ASHRAE Baseline Systems as appropriate per 90.1-2007 PRM6. Assigned Zones to HVAC systems7. Sized HVAC systems (auto-sized)
1. Design-day sizing using ASHRAE Heat Balance Method8. Ran Energy Simulations
1. Parametric runs - varied climate data set1. TMY2 (or CWEC), TMY3 (DOE), TMY3 (WA), TMY(7), TMY(15), XMY(MAX), XMY(MIN), XMY (MIN-MAX)
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Results
• Over 1 TB of data generated from the 2,048 simulations (used fully detailed results)– Max simulation time (12 minutes – Hospital)– Hardware used: i7 laptop, 1 TB HD, 12 GB RAM
(purchased in 2013)– Software used: IES <VE> 2014 Feature Pack 1
• Every building type shows significant EUI (Energy Use Intensity) variance based on varying the weather data
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Medium Office
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Hospital
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Secondary School
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Small Hotel
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Strip Mall
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Full Service Restaurant
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Warehouse
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Conclusions• TMY2 and TMY3 data is not appropriate for making future
decisions (aka design decisions) for all building types• XMY file types likely give better understanding of EUI, energy end-
use, and other building performance metrics when considering climate change, but…
• XMY files on their own are likely insufficient to understand future “typical” climates
• Multiple climate files are needed to understand the broader impacts of building performance over time in the face of rapid climate change
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What can you do?
• Consider accounting for climate change in energy simulation (and by extension) your design process and actual building performance:
• www.betterenergymodels.org