climate vulnerability monitor 2nd edition (dara, 2012)

8/10/2019 Climate Vulnerability Monitor 2nd Edition (DARA, 2012)

1/359

Climate Vulnerable Forum

CLIMATE VULNERABILITY MONITOA GUIDE TO THE COLD CALCULUS OF A HOT PLAN2NDEDITION


2/359


3/359

ACUTEW

HIGHU

MOZAMBIQUE2

KEY TO THE MONITOR

CLIMATE

CARBON

COMBINED

CLIMATE + CARBON

DEATHS ECONOMIC COST

ACUTE + ACUTE - SEVERE + SEVERE - HIGH + HIGH - MODERATE L

COUNTRY GROUP

MULTI-DIMENSIONALCAPACITY

HOTSPOTS

Countries estimated to experience among the largesttotal impacts of any country irrespec tive of overall size population or wealth/GDP in at least one of the indicato

ACUTE

SEVERE

HIGH

MODERATE

LOW

INCREASING

STABLE

DECREASING

W

P

U

VULNERABILITY

DEVELOPED

OTHER INDUSTRIALIZED

DEVELOPING COUNTRY HIGH EMITTERS

DEVELOPING COUNTRY LOW EMITTERS

COUNTRY GROUPS

EXTENSIVE

INTERMEDIARY

RESTRICTED

HIGHLY RESTRICTED

MULTI-DIMENSIONAL CAPACITY

4

3

2

1

MULTI-DIMENSIONALVULNERABILITY

CLIMATE

COUNTRY

CHANGE INVULNERABILITYCLIMATE

MULTI-DIMENSIONALVULNERABILITY

CARBON

CHANGE INVULNERABILITYCARBON

2010 2030 2010 2030YEAR YEAR


4/359

COUNTRY GROUPS

List of countries by main Monitor country groups

DEVELOPED (ANNEX II)Australia, Austr ia, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France,

Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg,

Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden,

Switzerland, United Kingdom, United States

OTHER INDUSTRIALIZED(ANNEX I OUTSIDE OF ANNEX II)Belarus, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia,

Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey,

Ukraine

DEVELOPING COUNTRY HIGH EMITTERS(NON-ANNEX I ABOVE 4 TONS CO

2E 2005)

Algeria, Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Azerbaijan, Bahamas,

Bahrain, Belize, Bolivia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Botswana, Brazil,

Brunei, Bulgaria, Cambodia, Central Afr ican Republic, Chile, China,

Congo, Cyprus, DR Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Grenanda,

Guatemala, Guinea, Guyana, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Kazakhstan,

Kuwait, Laos, Libya, Macedonia, Malaysia, Mexico, Mongolia,

Myanmar, Namibia, North Korea, Oman, Papua New Guinea,

Paraguay, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Seychelles, Singapore, Solomon

Islands, South Africa, South Korea, Suriname, Thailand, Trinidad and

Tobago, Turkmenistan, United Arab Emirates, Uruguay, Uzbekistan,

Venezuela, Zambia

DEVELOPING COUNTRY LOW EMITTERS(NON-ANNEX I BELOW 4 TONS CO

2E 2005)

Afghanistan, Albania, Angola, Armenia, Bangladesh, Barbados,

Benin, Bhutan, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cape Verde, Chad, Colombia,

Comoros, Costa Rica, Cuba, Djibouti, Dominica, Dominican Republic,

Ecuador, Egypt, El Salvador, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Fiji, Gambia, Georgia,

Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, Honduras, India, Jamaica,

Jordan, Kenya, Kiribati, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Lesotho, Liberia,

Madagascar, Malawi, Maldives, Mali, Marshall Islands, Mauritania,

Mauritius, Micronesia, Moldova, Morocco, Mozambique, Nepal,Nicaragua, Niger, Nigeria, Pakistan, Palau, Panama, Peru, Philippines,

Rwanda, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent, Samoa, Sao Tome and Principe,

Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sri Lanka, Sudan/South Sudan,

Swaziland, Syria, Tajikistan, Tanzania, Timor-Leste, Togo, Tonga,

Tunisia, Tuvalu, Uganda, Vanuatu, Vietnam, Yemen, Zimbabwe


5/359


6/359

CLIMATE VULNERABILITY MONITOA GUIDE TO THE COLD CALCULUS OF A HOT PLAN2

NDEDITION


7/359

DARA and the Climate Vulnerable ForumClimate Vulnerability Monitor 2ndEdition.A Guide to the Cold Calculus of a Hot Planet

This book was set in Heroic Condensed, Franklin Gothic and Uni Sans

Graphic Design: wearebold.es

Icons inspired in The Noun Project collectionPhotographs: Thinkstock/Getty Images

Includes bibliographical references

ISBN: 978-84-616-0567-5

(paper: offset 120 gr., interior; couch semimate 300 gr., cover)

LD: M-31813-2012

First published 2012

Copyright Fundacin DARA Internacional 2012

All rights reser ved. No reproduction, copy or transmissionof this publication may be made without written permission.

Printed and bound in Spain by Estudios Grcos Europeos, S.A.

HEADQUARTERS GENEVA OFFICEFelipe IV, 9 3 Izquierda Internat ional Environment House 2/MIE228014 Madrid Spain 7-9 Chemin de BalexertPhone: +34 91 531 03 72 Chtelaine CH-1219 Geneva SwitzerlandFax: +34 91 522 0039 Phone: +41 22 749 40 [email protected] Fax: +41 22 797 40 31www.daraint.org


8/359

DEDICATED TO THE INNOCENT VICTIMS OF CLIMATE CHANGE


9/359

A GREAT DEALhas beenwritten on the influence of theabsorption of the atmosphereupon the climate.. Anotherside of the question that haslong attracted the attention ofphysicists, is this: Is the meantemperature of the groundin any way influenced by thepresence of heat-absorbinggases in the atmosphere? (..)

If the quantity of carbonicacid [CO

2] decreases from 1 to

0.67, the fall of temperatureis nearly the same as theincrease in temperature if thisquantity augments to 1.5. Andto get a new increase of thisorder of magnitude (3-4C), itwill be necessary to alter thequantity of carbonic acid till itreaches a value nearly midwaybetween 2 and 2.5.SVANTE AUGUST ARRHENIUS

April 1896

The London, Edinburgh,and Dublin PhilosophicalMagazine and Journalof Science

FEW OF THOSEfamiliar withthe natural heat exchangesof the atmosphere, whichgo into the making of ourclimates and weather,would be prepared to admitthat the activities of mancould have any influenceupon phenomena of sovast a scale.. I hope toshow that such influenceis not only possible, but itis actually occurring at thepresent time.GUY STEWART CALLENDAR

April 1938

Quarterly Journal of the RoyalMeteorological Society

IF AT THE ENDof thiscentury, measurementsshow that the carbondioxide content ofthe atmosphere hasrisen appreciably and

at the same timethe temperature hascontinued to risethroughout the world, itwill be firmly establishedthat carbon dioxide isan important factor in

causing climatic changeGILBERT NORMAN PLASSMay 1956

American Journal of Physics


10/359

THE EARTHS CLIMATEsystem has demonstrablychanged on both globaland regional scales sincethe pre-industrial era.. Theatmospheric concentrationsof key anthropogenicgreenhouse gases (i.e.,carbon dioxide (CO

2)..)

reached their highestrecorded levels in the 1990s.THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL

PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE

September 2001

A HUNDRED YEARSfrom now, lookingback, the only questio

that will appearimportant about thehistorical moment inwhich we now liveis the question ofwhether or not wedid anything to arrest

climate change.THE ECONOMISTDecember 2011


11/359

MARY CHINERY-HESSE, Memberof the Panel of the Wise of theAfrican Union; Chief Advisor tothe Former President of Ghana;Former Deputy Director-Generalof the International LabourOrganization (ILO)

HELEN CLARK, Administrator,United Nations DevelopmentProgramme (UNDP)

JOS MARA FIGUERES, FormerPresident of Costa Rica; Chairmanof the Carbon War Room

ROBERT GLASSER, SecretaryGeneral, CARE International,Geneva

SALEEMUL HUQ, Director,International Institute forEnvironment and Development(IIED), Independent University,Dhaka

YOLANDA KAKABADSE,International President, WWF

ASHOK KHOSLA, President,

International Union forConservation of Nature (IUCN);Chairman of DevelopmentAlternatives, Co-Chair of the UNResources Panel

RICARDO LAGOS, FormerPresident of Chile; FormerPresident of the Club of Madrid

LOREN LEGARDA, Senator ofthe Philippines; UN InternationalStrategy for Disaster Reduction(ISDR) Regional Champion forDisaster Risk Reduction and

Climate Change Adaptation forAsia and the Pacic

MICHAEL MARMOT, Director,International Institute for Societyand Health, University College,London

SIMON MAXWELL, ExecutiveChair, Climate and DevelopmentKnowledge Network (CDKN)

DAVID NABARRO, SpecialRepresentative of the UNSecretary-General for FoodSecurity and Nutrition

ATIQ RAHMAN, Executive Director,Bangladesh Centre for AdvancedStudies (BCAS), Dhaka

TERESA RIBERA, FormerSecretary of State for ClimateChange of Spain

JOHAN ROCKSTRM, ExecutiveDirector, Stockholm EnvironmentInstitute (SEI) and StockholmResilience Centre

JEFFREY SACHS, Director,The Earth Institute, ColumbiaUniversity, New York

HANS JOACHIM SCHELLNHUBER,Founding Director of the PotsdamInstitute for Climate ImpactResearch (PIK)

JAVIER SOLANA, President,ESADE Center for Global Economyand Politics; Distinguished SeniorFellow, Brookings Institution;Chairman, Aspen Institute Espaa

ANDREW STEER, President,World Resources Institute,Washington, D.C.

MARGARETA WAHLSTRM,

United Nations AssistantSecretary-General for DisasterRisk Reduction

MICHAEL ZAMMIT CUTAJAR,Former Executive Secretary,United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change(UNFCCC)

YASEMIN AYSAN, Former UnderSecretary General, InternationalFederation of Red Cross and RedCrescent Societies (IFRC)

SURUCHI BHADWAL, AssociateDirector, Earth Sciences andClimate Change Division, TheEnergy and Resources Institute(TERI), New Delhi

DIARMID CAMPBELL-LENDRUM,Senior Scientist, Public Health

and Environment, World HealthOrganization (WHO)

MANUEL CARBALLO, ExecutiveDirector, International Centrefor Migration, Health andDevelopment (ICMHD), Geneva

IAN CHRISTOPLOS, Senior ProjectResearcher, Danish Institutefor International Studies (DIIS),Copenhagen

JOSHUA COOPER, Director,Hawaii Institute for Human Rights

MARIANE DIOP KANE, Head of

Forecasting, Agence Nationalede la Mtorologie du Sngal(ANAMS)

SEAN DOOLAN, Climate Change& Environmental GovernanceAdvisor, United KingdomDepartment for InternationalDevelopment (DfID), Ghana

PIERRE ENCONTRE, Chief, SpecialProgrammes, Division for Africa,Least Developed Countriesand Special Programmes,UN Conference on Trade and

Investment (UNCTAD)HANS-MARTIN FSSEL, ProjectManager for Climate Impacts,Vulnerability, and Adaptationat the European EnvironmentAgency (EEA)

TIM GORE, International PolicyAdvisor for Climate Change,Oxfam International AdvocacyOfce, New York

ANNE HAMMILL, SeniorResearcher, Climate Change andEnergy, International Institute foSustainable Development (IISD)Geneva

RANDOLPH KENT, Director,Humanitarian Futures ProgrammKings College, London

TORD KJELLSTROM, SeniorProfessor, Department of PublicHealth and Clinical Medicine,

Umea University; Visiting Fellow,Honorary Professor, AustraliaNational University, Canberra,and University College, London

ISABEL KREISLER, ClimatePolicy Specialist, Environmentand Energy Group, Bureau forDevelopment Policy, Bureaufor Development Policy, UnitedNations Development Programm(UNDP)

JUERGEN KROPP, Head, North-South Research Group, Potsdam

Institute for Climate ImpactResearch (PIK)

ALLAN LAVELL, Coordinator,Programme for Disaster RiskManagement, Secretary GeneraOfce, Latin America SocialScience Faculty (FLASCO), SanJos

MARC LEVY, Deputy Director,Center for International EarthScience Information Network(CIESIN), Earth Institute atColumbia University, New York

FILIPE LCIO, Head of the GlobaFramework for Climate Services,World Meteorological (WMO)

URS LUTERBACHER, Chairman,Environmental Studies Unit,Graduate Institute of Internationaand Development Studies, Genev

COLLABORATORSADVISORYPANEL

PEER REVIEWCOMMITTEE


12/359

ANDREW MASKREY, Coordinator,Global Assessment Report (GAR),UN International Strategy forDisaster Reduction (UNISDR)

BENITO MLLER, Director Energyand Environment, Oxford Institutefor Energy Studies

MICHELE DE NEVERS, VisitingSenior Associate, Center for GlobalDevelopment, Washington, D.C.

MARTIN PARRY, Fellow, GranthamInstitute for Climate Change,Imperial College, London

JAMES ROOP, Climate ChangeAdvisor for Asia and Pacic,Climate Change Branch, AusAID

BEN RAMALINGAM, VisitingFellow, Institute of DevelopmentStudies (IDS) and ResearchAssociate, Overseas DevelopmentInstitute (ODI), London

CARLO SCARAMELLA,Coordinator, Ofce for ClimateChange, Environment and

Disaster Risk Reduction, UNWorld Food Programme (WFP)

MATTHIAS SCHMALE, UnderSecretary General, NationalSociety and KnowledgeDevelopment, InternationalFederation of Red Cross and RedCrescent Societies (IFRC)

HANSJOERG STROHMEYER,Chief, Policy Development andStudies Branch, UN Ofce for theCoordination of HumanitarianAffairs (OCHA)

FARHANA YAMIN, ResearchFellow, Institute of DevelopmentStudies, Brighton

EDITORMatthew McKinnon

PROJECT COORDINATORLuca Fernndez Surez

PRINCIPAL PROJECT ADVIS0RSren Peter Andreasen

LEAD TECHNICAL RESEARCHERSBeatriz Asensio (Coordination)Cristian Conteduca (Modeling)Dominik Hlse (Quantitative)

TECHNICAL ADVIS0RPeter Utzon BergSENIOR AID ADVIS0RMagda Ninaber van Eyben

FIELD STUDIES COORDINATORBeln Paley

COUNTRY STUDY RESEARCHERSNguyen Huong TraNguyen Quang ThanhNguyen Thuy HangEmmanuel Tachie-ObengTran Chung Chau

RESEARCH ASSISTANTS

Daniel Barnes (Coordination)Johanna BarthRachel ClancyAna ChamberlainBosco LlisoAbby MoranRachad NassarJenena OliverAna Rodrguez SecoEmily Schuckert

PUBLICATION MANAGERRebecca B. Moy

COMMUNICATIONS AND VISUALSFiona Guy (Advisor)

Christina SamsonNacho WilhelmiBegoa Yage

GRAPHIC DESIGNERSMariano Sarmiento (Lead)Mara LasaRuth OteroMarta San Marn

COPYEDITINGMorwenna MarshallTim Morris

CO-CHAIRSROSS MOUNTAIN, Director General,DARA

SUFIUR RAHMAN, Director General,Economic Affairs, Ministry of ForeignAffairs, Bangladesh

MEMBERSJAVIER DAZ CARMONA, Ambassadorfor Climate Change and GlobalEnvironmental Affairs, Costa Rica

SALAHUDDIN NOMAN CHOWDHURY,Director, Economic Affairs, Ministryof Foreign Affairs, Bangladesh

MATTHEW MCKINNON, Head ofClimate Vulnerability Initiative, DARA

The Advisory Panel and the Peer Review Committeemembers serve in their personal capacity, providing inputto the Climate Vulnerability Initiative that informs thedevelopment of the Climate Vulnerability Monitor. DARA issolely responsible for the nal content of this report .

STEERINGGROUP

EDITORIAL ANDRESEARCH TEAM


13/359

8IPREFACE

Climate change is already with us. It k ills.It steals livelihoods. And it takes the mostfrom those who have the least. But the costsare largely hidden from our understanding.Inaction on climate change actually takes frous all. Only together can we plot a different

course: one of greater prosperity and well-being.Technical barriers no longer hold back our transition toa low-carbon world, and technological solutions exist tmanage risks. We struggle instead with other barriers.There are polit ical barr iers: while some countries arecommitted to change and making progress, there isstill a lack of conviction among the governments of tomany industrialized and developing nations.Social and cultural barriers also exist: lack ofunderstanding causes popular indifference or evenhostility to sensible change.And nancial barriers mean that only a fraction of theresources needed for low-carbon development and tosupport worst-hit communities are being made availableTo tackle all these barriers, 20 countries highlyvulnerable to climate change came together to formthe Climate Vulnerable Forum.Our countries favour action on climate change. We arefrustrated with the inadequacy of the global responseand a world economy that continues to price carbonirresponsibly. We bear witness to the extremes at theclimate frontlines of today. Despite having contributed thleast to climate change, we are forced, almost unaided,to take costly measures to protect our people and oureconomies. We know the world is rapidly becoming morenot less vulnerable, and that all our fates are tied.

PREFACE

THIS REPORT CHALLENGES A CONVENTIONAL VIEW: THATGLOBAL ACTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE IS A COST TO SOCIETY.INSTEAD, IT ENLIGHTENS OUR UNDERSTANDING OF HOWTACKLING CLIMATE CHANGE THROUGH COORDINATEDEFFORTS BETWEEN NATIONS WOULD ACTUALLY PRODUCE

MUCH-NEEDED BENEFITS FOR ALL.


14/359

PREFA

Farmers face more hot days as they set to work.Families are sleeping outside in mosquito-infestedareas because their homes are unbearable in the heatof the night. Roads and buildings on permanentlyfrozen land in the cooler regions are being damaged asmelting sets in. Rivers are drying up, causing transportshocks, while unprecedented oods are devastating otherareas. Salt from rising seas harms fertile land and freshwater supplies. Coastlines erode. Land is submerged.Populations fail to make a living. People move.Pollution also kills. It acidies lakes and oceans,poisons plants and animal life, corrodes infrast ructureand contaminates the air we breathe.We pay for each of these damages in lives, sufferingand dollars. Yet the world has struggled to see how allthese concerns are interlinked. That is why this reporthas sought to tackle our knowledge barriers.With a better understanding of the full array of issuesand the causes behind them, nobody should remainindifferent or inactive.The Climate Vulnerable Forum commissioned thissecond Climate Vulnerability Monitor at its MinisterialMeeting at Dhaka in November 2011. The report wasagain mandated to DARA for independent developmentand was reviewed by an external Advisory Panel andPeer Review Committee comprised of internat ionalauthorities on this subject.Against a struggling world economy, its main ndingsoffer sobering news: climate change is already loweringeconomic output globally and will increasingly holdback growth unless strong action is urgently taken.Its pages seek to move us to act by highlighting the

SHEIKH HASINAPrime Minister of BangladeshJOS MARA FIGUERESTrustee of DARA, Former Presidentof Costa Rica

human plight of an increasingly hotter and morepolluted planet. Severe impacts on livelihoods, hand the worlds poorest g roups speak of fundameinjustices that simply cannot go unaddressed.The report relies on the incredible wealth of somethe most recently published research and scientiknowledge, assimilating literally hundreds of studand bodies of data into a common framework thamakes its collective meaning clear. More researcis plainly needed and will continuously enrich our

understanding, but improving knowledge should na premise to refrain from acting when so muchis at stake.In the past, humanity has prevailed against recogthreats to our security and prosperity. Today therare two wars we must win: the continued ght agpoverty, and the new challenge of climate changeBoth can be tackled simultaneously with the sampolicy framework that would shif t our developmepath to a low-carbon foot ing. Taking action, we clessen the social, economic and environmentaldamages of a carbon-intensive economy.We would create jobs, investment opportunities,new possibilities for international cooperation antechnological deployment to the benet of all.Despite capacity constraints, many Forumgovernments are already embracing the call toaction: Bangladesh has committed never to excethe average per capita emissions of the developicountries. Costa Rica aims to be carbon neutralby 2021. But there are limits to what individualcountries can achieve.Solving the climate challenge requires broadestinternational cooperation. And yet countries stillargue economic barriers to change. This report ainstead that strong measures on climate changereap the most monetary benets for society.Indeed, building global partnerships where all nacan fully participate in the transition to a low-careconomy will lessen costs and heighten the socienvironmental and economic dividends for all. Juas supporting vulnerable communities will ult imaimprove the well-being of society as a whole.Divided, we face declining prosperity and immensuffering. Together, we have the chance to strengglobal welfare and safeguard the fate of the nati

"Many Forum governments are already embracingthe call to action: Bangladesh has committednever to exceed the average per capita emissions

of the developing countries. Costa Rica aims to becarbon neutral by 2021. But there are limits to whatindividual countries can achieve."


15/359

10IACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This report was a project that took on a life almost of itsown. Unrivalled is a word that comes to mind when describingthe energy, interest and dedication of our core partners: donors,advisors, researchers, reviewers, the team within DARA, expertsat Commons Consultants, or the celebrated graphic designers wearebold.es who made the measles you generally love(and less often disprove of) as readers.

We set out to improve the 2010 report and ended up withsomething that struggles to bear a passing resemblance to whatwe thought was a useful contribution back in 2010. Somehow

four maps turned into fty-nine, a methodology note of twenty-ve pages became a tome of well over one hundred that weultimately couldnt print in the book (the reader will nd itonline: www.daraint.org/cvm2). Expert workshops in Accraand Hanoi developed into fully-edged policy exchanges, whiledelegates of the Climate Vulnerable Forum crowded Side Eventrooms in Durban, Bonn and Rio. We hope you all appreciate thenal result and cannot thank you enough for helping us to pullthis unusual new work together.

Some much warranted apologies go to our close families andthose of the core collaborators on this project. Thanks next toLuca Fernndez Surez and the whole team and house in DARA,

all of whom have helped make this report what it is included ofcourse are DARAs Board of Trustees, in particular our keybenefactor Diego Hidalgo, and our Trustee Jos Mara Figueres.

May we also extend our utmost gratitude to friends andcolleagues at Kings Colleges Humanitarian Futures Programmeat the helm of the FOREWARN project, of which this report isone part: Randolph Kent, Hugh Macleman, Jonathan Paz, EmmaVisman and Okey Uzoechina.

We would like to thank the members of our Advisory Panel fortheir generous insight and contributions to this effort over many,many months: Mary Chinery-Hesse, Helen Clark, Jos MaraFigueres, Robert Glasser, Saleemul Huq, Yolanda Kakabadse,Ashok Khosla, Ricardo Lagos, Loren Legarda, Michael Marmot,Simon Maxwell, David Nabarro, Atiq Rahman, Teresa Ribera,Johan Rockstrm, Jeffrey Sachs, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber,Javier Solana, Andrew Steer, Margareta Wahlstrm, and MichaelZammit Cutajar. And also to Jan Eliasson, even though you had totake up a new role part way through the endeavour, we were andwill continue to be most grateful for your encouragementand support.


16/359

ACKNOWLEDGEMEN

The Peer Review Committee continually challenged us andsuggested innovations, adjustments and corrections we neverwould have thought of ourselves. We certainly hope the nalreport meets your high expectations of it: Yasemin Aysan, SuruchiBhadwal, Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum, Manuel Carballo, IanChristoplos, Joshua Cooper, Mariane Diop Kane, Sean Doolan,Pierre Encontre, Hans-Martin Fssel, Tim Gore, Anne Hammil,Randolph Kent, Tord Kjellstrom, Isabel Kreisler, Juergen Kropp,Allan Lavell, Marc Levy, Filipe Lcio, Urs Luterbacher, AndrewMaskrey, Benito Mller, Michele de Nevers, Martin Parry, JamesRoop, Ben Ramalingam, Carlo Scaramella, Matthias Schmale,

Hansjoerg Strohmeyer, and Farhana Yamin.

The Government of Bangladesh as Chair of the ClimateVulnerable Forum has not ceased to drive forward the climatecause with energy and dynamism in a truly international spirit.Thank you for your openness to the research teams fresh ideason this topic, and your willingness to explore where they mightlead. Thanks goes in particular to Dr. Dipu Moni, The HonorableForeign Minister of Bangladesh; Dr. Hasan Mahmud, TheHonorable Minister of Environment and Forests of Bangladesh;Ambassador Mohamed Mijarul Quayes, Foreign Secretary ofBangladesh; Mr. Mesbah ul Alam, Secretary of Ministry ofEnvironment and Forests; Ambassador Abdul Hannan, Permanent

Representative to the United Nations Ofce at Geneva; Dr. S.M.Munjurul Khan, Deputy Secretary of Ministry of Environment andForests; Deputy Permanent Representative to the United Nations,Mr. Rahman Mustazur; and Mr Faiyaz Murshid Kazi of theBangladesh Foreign Ministry. Finally, thanks so much to two ofthe leading doyens of international macro-economic diplomacyin South Asia: Mr. Md. Suur Rahman, Director General and Mr.Salahuddin Noman Chowdhury, Director, each of Economic AffairsWing of Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Bangaldesh may youcontinue to think and lead the way forward.

To our donors at AECID, AusAID and Fundacin Biodiversidad:thank you for your many efforts to support this project and yourhelpful assistance in coordinating and realizing the wide-rangingactivities involved. Thank you Juan Ovejero Dohn for looking afterthe team in Hanoi and Vietnam. To the Australian (and Italian)team in Accra, we hope you also enjoyed the experience of thecountry study: Sarah Willis and Azzurra Chiarini.

This report would not have been possible without the analyticalexpertise and dedicated work of Commons Consultants, the mainresearch and production partner of DARA in this effort, a teamled by Sren Peter Andreasen as Principal Advisor to the project

and Peter Utzon Berg as the primary Technical Advisor to theendeavour. Your honed creativity and technical precision allowedthis project to achieve its close to outlandish aims.Mariano Sarmiento, lead designer and his dedicated andtalented team are responsible for all of the extremely helpful ortoo complex graphics in this report, depending on your viewpoint.However, the complexity is all our fault and not Mariano's norhis teams what you see is much, much better than anythingwe would have subjected you to without their help. MorwennaMarshall, thanks once again for being there even at the mostinconvenient moments, and to Tim Morris, our copy editors who

each receive a special vote of thanks.

We particularly owe our thanks to additional scientists andexperts who provided strong guidance and assistance with modelselection of which there are simply too many to list here. You mayhave just thought you were just doing our chief modeller, CristianConteduca, a favour (you were) but your assistance in helping usto track down the knowledge which forms the foundation of thiswork was absolutely fundamental to helping this report makewhat we hope is a meaningful contribution to the debate. AntoniaPraetorius, Sebastian Strempel, YiWei Ng, we thank you.

Many thanks also to the governments of Ghana and Vietnam and

to the UNDP country ofces there, as well as UNDP headquartersin New York, for your most helpful support. In Vietnam, Live&Learn,Hang Nguyen and colleagues were tremendous in supporting ourcountry research, and in Ghana, the Environmental ProtectionAgency-Ghana with expert support from Emmanuel Tachie-Obengdid a highly effective job of facilitating our trip and national andcommunity activities and for which credit is deserved. Mary Chinery-Hesse, thank you so much for welcoming us and taking part.

Finally, many thanks goes to Christer Elfverson, Magda Ninabervan Eyben, Marc Limon and Erik Keus, all of whom went out oftheir way to help see this project achieve its objectives. Thanksadditionally to John Cuddy, Christiana Figueres, William Hare andNicholas Stern for your sage advice, and to the Asia Society andfriends at TckTckTck for your kind support behind the Monitorlaunch.

ROSS MOUNTAINDARA Director General

MATTHEW MCKINNONEditor


17/359


18/359

INTRODUCTION 14EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 16FINDINGS AND OBSERVATIONS 24RECOMMENDATIONS 28RESEARCH PROCESS 36

KEY ISSUES 40

A VERY SHORT HISTORY OF CLIMATE SCIENCE 58

THE MONITOR 60

CLIMATE 104ENVIRONMENTAL DISASTERS 106HABITAT CHANGE 124HEALTH IMPACT 154INDUSTRY STRESS 176

COUNTRY STUDIES 202GHANA 204VIETNAM 216

CARBON 228ENVIRONMENTAL DISASTERS 230HABITAT CHANGE 240HEALTH IMPACT 254INDUSTRY STRESS 272

METHODOLOGY 286

MONITOR DATA TABLES 292

PARTNERS 302ABBREVIATIONS 303GLOSSARY 304BIBLIOGRAPHY 308

CONTENTS


19/359

TWO DECADES OF FAILURE TO ACT

DECISIVELY ON CLIMATE CHANGE

HAVE MADE THE EARTH HOTTER

AND MORE POLLUTED.1 There isstill a window of opportunity, fastclosing, to scale back pollution andtame the rising heat. But the worldeconomy is locked onto a differentcourse: fossil fuel consumptionis expected to continue its rapid

growth in the coming decades.2

Major economies not committed tolow-carbon development would needto enact policy changes to alter thisfact. Current frontline stockpilesof hydrocarbons of oil, coal, andgas are multiples of what couldpossibly be consumed this centuryif the climate is to be kept undercontrol, despite being valued as if alland more of these will be burnt.3The cold calculus of a hot planetis that millions of people already

suffer from the failure of the worldeconomy to embark on a low-carbontransition. This report estimates that5 million lives are lost each yeartoday as a result of climate changeand a carbon-based economy,with detailed explanations forwhy this is the case found in therelevant chapters that follow. Inparticular, effects are most severefor the worlds poorest groupswhose struggle against poverty is

worsened.4 Although no country isspared the impact: a depleted ozonelayer for instance also causedby potent greenhouse gases hassignicantly increased the incidenceof skin cancer, above all in thewealthiest of countries. The USwill lose more than 2% of its GDPby 2030 according to this reportsestimates.5

On the basis of t his reportscomprehensive reassessment ofthe incremental costs and benetsof a hotter, more polluted planet,a second cold calculus canalso be made.Climate change is found to havealready set back global developmentby close to 1% of world GDP.This impact is felt, but rarelycounted, in the bottom lines ofcompanies, industries and majoreconomies, and is already playing

a role in determining the wealthor poverty of nations. Inactionon climate change cost LeastDeveloped Countries an average of7% of their GDP for the year 2010 with losses that will greatly increasein the years ahead. Indeed, theexplosive increase in heat expectedover the coming decades will onlylead to a corresponding escalationin these costs, increasingly holdingback growth as emissions go

unabated and efforts to support theworst-affected communities fail tomeet the challenges at hand.The losses incurred already exceedby a signicant margin any costsof reducing emissions in line witha low-carbon transition.6 Actionon climate change would thereforealready reap monetary benetsfor the world, both globally and for

major economies like the US, Chinaand India.So the second cold, bottom-linecalculus of a hot planet is thattackling climate change is alreadysensible in economic termstoday. The step will also minimizewidespread illness and mortalitythat inaction causes. And it wouldbolster the ght against povertywhile helping to safeguard a naturalworld in steep decline.7The ndings of this report differ

from previous studies that largelyunderstand climate change as a netbenet or minimal cost to societytoday (or prior to mid-century), andwhich inform current economicdecision-making on climate change,making it easier for governments toavoid serious action.8While the methods of this studyresemble previous research, threekey distinctions in the approach haveled to fundamentally different results.

First, this report draws on the mostrecent science and research intodifferent climate-related impacts,taking advantage of the incrediblegrowth in understanding on thisissue since the 1990s era researchthat provides the basis of almost alother studies of this kind.9

Second, building on freshly availabresearch, a number of new effects

are considered here. Chief amongthese is the impact that increasingheat has on labour productivity, orthe fact that workers (especiallyoutdoors) produce less in a givenhour when it is very hot. Fractionalincreases in global temperature cantranslate into tens of additional hotdays with each passing decade.10

Labour productivity is estimated toresult in the largest cost to the worleconomy of any effects analysedin this report. Other effects newly

considered here include the thawinof permafrost in cold regions andthe accelerated depreciation ofinfrastructure that results as frozenland shifts when it thaws.11

Finally, this report also considers afull range of the closely inter-linkedcosts and benets of the carboneconomy, independent of anyclimate change impacts. Whenaccounting for the large-scalecosts imposed by carbon-intensivehazards to human health, the

environment and economic sectorssuch as the sheries industry, the fucosts of inaction are laid bare.Human society and the naturalworld, it turns out, are fundamentalsusceptible to changes in ambientheat. Civilization itself emergedduring an age subsequent to the lasglacial era that was characterizedby a uniquely stable and mild

14IINTRODUCTION

A GUIDE TO THE COLD CALCULUS

OF A HOT PLANET

INTRO-

DUCTION

THE CLIMATE VULNERABLE FORUMThe Climate Vulnerable Forum (CVF) is an international cooperation group for coordination, advocacy and knowledge-building among countries that face significant insecurity due to climate change. The Forum has distinguished itselfthrough a determination to catalyze more effective and broad-based action for tackling the global climate challenge,internationally and nationally. Founded in 2009 by the Maldives, it now includes 20 governments and is a major foreignpolicy initiative of its current chair, Bangladesh. The Climate Vulnerability Monitors second edition was commissionedat the November 2011 Ministerial Meeting of the Forum at Dhaka, Bangladesh.


20/359

INTRODUCTIO

climate. The balance is delicate:a few degrees cooler and much ofthe northern hemisphere freezes.12Several degrees hotter and partsof the planet exceed the thermalmaximum at which human beingscan exist outdoors.13

The world is just one degreeCelsius (1.8 F) hotter than priorto industrialization the principalcause of climate change.14But smallchanges count: Ghana for instance,a focus country in this report, haswarmed faster than others. Injust 50 years, the number of veryhot days in Ghana has increasedby 50 in number.15 Inaction onclimate change would see Ghanaexperience three to ve timesthat increase in heat this century

alone.16

It goes almost without sayingthat changes of this proportionhave profound effects for humanbeings, the natural environmentand the market economy. Releasinggigatonnes of carbon dioxide andother pollutants and gases into theatmosphere every year is neithera safe, sound nor healthy practicewhen cleaner, safer and moreenvironmentally sound alternativesso readily exist. Low-carbon energy

solutions such as wind, solar,tidal or geothermal power involve10 to 100 times less negativeexternalities than carbon-intensivealternatives.17Even for the sceptically minded,the argument for switching to safer,less damaging energy sources canbe justied on account of the heavycosts of the prevailing carbon-intensive means.The Climate Vulnerability Monitor(hereafter: the Monitor) was

commissioned by the ClimateVulnerable Forum, an internationalcooperation group of climate-insecure countries, and mandatedto DARA as an independent globalstudy into precisely these effects.As its name indicates, the reportserves to monitor the evolution ofchanges related to the climate asthey are already being felt around

the world. Its role is to shed light onhow society experiences inactionon the climate crisis today in orderthat the insight might assist inenhancing the contemporary globalresponse to this most serious ofsocietal concerns. The study has

benetted from the input of wide-ranging external advisory bodiesand eld research undertaken inGhana and Vietnam.Governments like those of theClimate Vulnerable Forum arealready allocating signicanttaxpayer funds to deal withthe local effects of climatechange as they are taking hold.Governments worldwide areweighing macroeconomic energyand environmental policies, from

infrastructure incentives to low-carbon regulation, nuclear energyreliance, or the exploitation ofhazardous unconventional fuelreserves. In doing so, decisionsare being made to allocate highlyspecic sums of money, human andintellectual capacities, and otherresources of all kinds.The Monitor helps to inform thesedecisions by presenting a snapshotof what current knowledge onclimate change issues in their

aggregate can reasonably beassumed to imply for the world. Theanalysis includes monetary, humanand ecological estimations of theramications of inaction on climatechange. These estimations arethe result of this specic researcheffort and provide a reference ofinterest when considering whatsocietal benets might result fromdifferent policy strategies. Theexercise enables the comparisonof costs with benets in order to

judge the overall merits of differentendeavours.The reports structure has threemain parts. The front matter ofthe report provides an executivesummary, context to and details ofthis study, as well as an overviewof key ndings and a seriesof detailed recommendationstargeted at specic groups. The

Monitor itself is then presented,with the results of the assessmentprovided for every country andeach of the different indicatorsused detailed one-by-one with keyinformation provided each timeat the country level, for different

groups and overall. Finally, anumber of special focus sectionsare also contained in this report,including independent chapterson the country-based researchundertaken in Ghana and Vietnam.It is the hope that this report willspur debate and awareness ofthe double-sided cold calculus ofaction versus inaction on climatechange with which the world nowdesperately struggles.The choice for society is critical but

hardly difcult if the externalitiesof inaction on climate changehave indeed been underestimatedby the world economy. Business-as-usual impacts would for thiscentury be multiples of any costsassociated with a transition to alow-carbon economy and implyunthinkable human suffering.All but the rmest responsesleave the door wide open tocatastrophic risks and threats tothe planets ability to support life,

none of which even enter into theMonitors assessment of costs.According to the InternationalEnergy Agency, just ve yearsremain for the worlds majoreconomies to enact structuraleconomic transformations inorder to break out of a dead endbusiness-as-usual trap. If not,planned investments in high-carboninfrastructure would from 2017 ruleout keeping the global temperaturerise below the internationally agreed

on level of 2 Celsius (3.6 F).18Technological barriers no longerhold back the transition. Prolongingchange only increases costs.Firm, urgent and internationallycooperative action heightensbenets for all. The best wayforward is quite obviously clear.

DARAFounded in 2003, DARA is anindependent organisationheadquartered in Madrid, Spain,committed to improving the

quality and effectiveness of aidvulnerable populations sufferingfrom conflict, disasters and climchange. DARA was mandated bythe Climate Vulnerable Forum asindependent developer of theClimate Vulnerability Monitor in first and second editions.

1The UN Framework Convention on ClimaChange was signed in 1992 (UNFCCC, 192 US EIA, 2011; IEA, 20113 BP, 2011; US EIA, 2011; CTI, 20114UNDP, 20075 Martens, 1998; UNEP, 20026For mitigation costs, see: Edenhofer et 2010 and IPCC, 2012b7 Butchart et al., 2010; Crutzen, 20108Tol, 2011; Nordhaus, 20119Tol, 2011; Exceptions include: NordhauRehdanz and Maddison, 200510Kjellstrom et al., 200911Nelson et al., 200212Petit et al., 199913Sherwood and Huber, 201014IPCC, 2007a15McSweeney et al., 2012: "A 'Hot' day onight is dened by the temperature excee10% of days or nights in the current climathat region and season."16 Ibid17IPCC, 2012a18IAE, 2011


21/359


22/359

EXECUTIVE SUMMA

This report estimates that c limate change causes400,000 deaths on average each year today, mainlydue to hunger and communicable diseases thataffect above all children in developing countries.Our present carbon-intensive energy system andrelated activities cause an estimated 4.5 milliondeaths each year linked to air pollution, hazardousoccupations and cancer.

Climate change caused economic losses estimatedclose to 1% of global GDP for the year 2010, or 700billion dollars (2010 PPP). The carbon-intensiveeconomy cost the world another 0.7% of GDP in thatyear, independent of any climate change losses.Together, carbon economy- and climate change-related losses amounted to over 1.2 trillion dollarsin 2010.The wor ld is already commit ted to a subs tantialincrease in global temperatures at least another0.5 C (1 F) due to a combination of the inertia of

the worlds oceans, the slow response of the carboncycle to reduced CO

2emission and limitations

on how fast emissions can actually be reduced.1The world economy therefore faces an increase inpressures that are estimated to lead to more than adoubling in the costs of climate change by 2030 toan estimated 2.5% of global GDP. Carbon economycosts also increase over this same period so that

global GDP in 2030 is estimated to be well over3% lower than it would have been in the absence ofclimate change and harmful carbon-intensive energypractices.Continuing todays patterns of carbon-intensiveenergy use is estimated, together with climatechange, to cause 6 million deaths per year by 2030,close to 700,000 of which would be due to climatechange. This implies that a combined climate-carboncrisis is estimated to claim 100 million lives betweennow and the end of the next decade. A signicant

TECHNICAL SUMMThe Monitor presents a ne

original analysis, synthesiz

the latest research and sc

information on the global i

including benets and lo

of climate change and th

carbon economy in econom

environmental and health

Climate change already ca

400,000 deaths each year

average. The present carbo

intensive economy moreov

is linked to 4.5 million dea

worldwide each year. Clima

change to date and the pre

carbon economy are estim

to have already lowered

global output by 1.6% of w

GDP or by around 1.2 trillio

dollars (2010 PPP). Losses

expected to increase rapid

reaching 6 million deaths a

3.2% of GDP in net averag

global losses by 2030. If

emissions continue to incr

unabated in a business-as

fashion (similar to the new

IPCC RCP8.5 scenario), ye

average global losses to w

output could exceed 10%

global GDP before the end

the century, with damages

accelerating throughout th

century. The costs of clima

change and the carbon eco

are already signicantly hi

than the estimated costs o

shifting the world economy

a low-carbon footing aro

0.5% of GDP for the curren

decade, although increasin

subsequent decades.1

This report and scientic

literature imply adaptation

NUMBER OF DEATHS2010 2030

Climate

Diarrheal Infections 85,000 150,000

Heat & Cold Illnesses 35,000 35,000

Hunger 225,000 380,000

Malaria & Vector Borne Diseases 20,000 20,000

Meningitis 30,000 40,000

Environmental Disasters 5,000 7,000

Carbon

Air Pollution 1,400,000 2,100,000

Indoor Smoke 3,100,000 3,100,000

Occupational Hazards 55,000 80,000

Skin Cancer 20,000 45,000

World 4,975,000 5,957,000

OVERALL COSTSLosses 2010,Bln PPP

corrected USD

Losses 2010,% of GDP

Net Losses,% of GDP 2010

Net Losses,% of GDP 2030

Climate 696 0.9% 0.8% 2.1%

Carbon 542 0.7% 0.7% 1.2%

World 1,238 1.7% 1.6% 3.2%


23/359

18IEXECUTIVE SUMMARY

share of the global population would be directlyaffected by inaction on climate change.Global gures mask enormous costs that will, inparticular, hit developing countries and above all theworlds poorest groups. Least Developed Countries(LDCs) facedon averagein excess of 7% of forgoneGDP in 2010 due to climate change and the carboneconomy, as all faced inequitable access to energyand sustainable development.Over 90% of mortality assessed in this report occurs

in developing countries only more than 98% in thecase of climate change.Of all these losses, it is the worlds poorestcommunities within lower and middle-incomecountries that are most exposed. Losses of incomeamong these groups is already extreme. The wor ldsprincipal objectives for poverty reduction, theMillennium Development Goals (MDGs), are thereforeunder comprehensive pressures, in particular as aresult of climate change.The impact for rural and coastal communities inthe lowest-income settings implies serious threatsfor food security and extreme poverty (goal 1of 8), child health and the ability of children toattend school (goals 2 and 4), maternal healthand womens development (goals 3 and 5), theprevalence of infectious diseases (goal 6) and,through water, sheries and biodiversity impacts,environmental sustainability (goal 7). Furthermore,in a difcult scal environment, the advent ofclimate change has pressured governments to divertOfcial Development Assistance (ODA) funds fromother development commitments and activities inan attempt to provide support for climate changeconcerns, including to a marginal degree, forhelping vulnerable communities adapt to climatechange. The Green Climate Fund, agreed uponin incrementally greater detail at the successiveinternational climate talks at Copenhagen, Cancnand Durban, faces an economic environment ofdeclining ODA tied to acute scal crises acrossa host of the worlds wealthiest economies (see:climate nance). These developments haveultimately compromised the global partnershipfor development (goal 8). Lag areas towards MDGachievement also align very closely with the most

pronounced vulnerabilities resulting from climatechange: sub-Saharan Africa, small island developingstates, and South Asia in par ticular.Poverty reduction effor ts are in peril as the potentialtemperature increase the world is already committedto has only begun to be realized, and the worldsmajor economies are in no way spared. The UnitedStates, China and India in particular are expectedto incur enormous losses that in 2030 for thesethree countries alone will collectively total 2.5 trillion

dollars in economic costs and over 3 million deathsper year, or half of all mortality the majority in Indiaand China.The whole world is af fected by these comprehensiveconcerns: 250 million people face the pressuresof sea-level rise; 30 million people are affectedby more extreme weather, especially ooding;25 million people are affected by permafrostthawing; and 5 million people are pressured bydesertication. The pressures that these combinedstresses put on af fected communities are immenseand force or s timulate the movement of populations.As is highlighted in the Ghana country study in thisreport, they can also fuel violence and an erosion ofthe social and economic fabric of communities.The impact of climate change on Labour Productivit yis assessed here as the most substantial economicloss facing the world as a result of climate change. Alarge proportion of the global workforce is exposedto the incessant increase in heat, with the number ofvery hot days and nights increasing in many placesby 10 days a decade.2Developing countries, andespecially the lowest-income communities, are highlyvulnerable to these effects because of geographicallocation northern countries like Scandinavia, it isassumed, benetfrom improved labour productivitydue to warmer weather but also because theirlabour forces have the highest proportion of non-climate controlled occupational environments.3Global productivity in labour is surging due totechnological advances and a shift of emphasis fromagricultural activities to an industrial and servicesector focus for most developing countries, amongother key developments.4Climate change, however,holds back the full extent of productivit y gainsthe world would otherwise enjoy.5In this way, the

to be at least 150 billion dollar

per year today for developing

countries, rising to a minimum

of more than 1 tr illion dollars

per year by 2030. These costs

are, however, considerably

lower than costs of damages to

developing countries estimated

here, so adapting to climate

change is very likely a cost-

effective investment in almost

all cases and should be centra

to any climate change policy.

Beyond adaptation, this report

also emphasizes the urgency

of mitigating key risks: tackling

food security, indoor res/

smoke, air pollution and other

health issues such as diarrhea

illnesses, malaria and meningi

that are all urgent priorities

for lessening the extent of the

human toll of this crisis.

With costs due both to

unabated climate change

and the carbon economy

expected to rise rapidly over

the course of this century,

tackling climate change by

reducing emissions yields net

benets to the world economy

in monetary terms amountin

to around a 1% higher GDP

for the entirety of the 21st

century (net present value at

a 3% discount rate). World

net benets from action on

climate change are insensitive

to discount rates from 0.1%

to 20% (the highest tested).

Even the most ambitious

reductions in emissions aime

at holding warming below 2C

(e.g. 400ppm CO2e/IPCC AR5

RCP2.6 scenario) generates

economic benets for the


24/359

EXECUTIVE SUMMA

costs of climate change are hidden, which helps toexplain in part how their full extent may have beenmissed. Even so, not all have benetted from fastexpanding labour productivity: labour productivity isa core indicator for MDG 1 (on extreme povert y andhunger), for instance, where little progress has been

registered in many developing regions of the world,in particular for sub-Saharan Africa and the Pacic.6Not one country is invulnerableto the combinedeffects of climate change and the carbon economy.Inaction on climate change penalizes every countryin the world, just as all are set to gain from action

world economy after account

for the costs of reducing emis

(mitigation costs). Limiting wa

to this level would limit huma

territorial and ecological dam

as well as other concerns, su

climate-induced forced move

of human populations.

Over 98% of all climate change

mortality and over 90% of all c

economy related mortality is in

developing countries: between

and 90% of all economic costs

are projected to fall on develop

countries. The most extreme e

of climate change are estimate

to be felt by the Least Develope

Countries, with average GDP lo

8% in 2030. With respect to ca

economy effects, inequitable a

to sustainable development se

Least Developed Countries aga

incurring the highest relative lo

at over 3% of GDP, while betwe

two thirds and three quarters o

carbon economy costs are bor

developing countries.

When the costs of climate cha

and the carbon economy esti

here are combined, not one c

in the world is left unharmed.

terms of regional incentives t

tackle climate change, every

is estimated to experience ne

economic benets from actio

climate change even for the h

levels of action.

The Monitor only analyses

incremental impacts as a res

climate change, or changes in

frequency of well-known stoch

events, such as oods and

landslides. Not assessed here

any way are potential catastro

impacts that could occur due

more rapid climate change fu

CLIMATE

CARBON

Acute Severe High Moderate Low

MULTI-DIMENSIONAL VULNERABILITY


25/359


on climate change. Moreover, the vulnerability ofthe world is shifting with every passing decade.Countries once resilient to marginal weather effectsincreasingly realize susceptibilities to a changedclimate as the increase in heat and associatedeffects continue to reach new extremes.Some quite serious damage is now unavoidable,but certain losses can still be reduced in the shortterm. In particular, human costs can be transferredto economic costs. This can be achieved through

programmes aimed at reducing rural poverty at theorigin of hunger deaths and many communicablediseases aficting the worlds poorest groups, withrisks that worsen with climate change. Or it can beachieved by ensuring clean air regulations, saferworking conditions and modern energy options forpeople at risk due to carbon-intensive forms of energy.All these measures will save lives but cost money.Economic losses themselves can also be lessened. Amajor recent review of humanitarian assistance worknoted that Mozambique had requested 3 milliondollars from the international community for oodpreparations. That sum went unsecured, and 100million dollars was subsequently spent on emergencyood response.7Investment in agriculture mightalso be cost-effective if the costs of supportingupgraded farming were to generate more benets (inproductivity, output) than the initial outlay.8

There are, however, limit s to the abili ty ofpopulations to adapt. The oceans can hardly berefrigerated against marine stresses.9Desertencroachment can be prevented but rarely reversed,and if so, generally at great expense.10It might bepossible to protect a beach, but concrete polderscould well be to the detriment of an areas authenticcharm and so to the value of propert ies.A low-carbon, renewable economy of hydro, wind,solar, geothermal, tidal and other innovative sources of

energy now competes with the most carbon-intensiveforms of power generation in the open market, wherethey constitute around 10% of the global energy mixtoday.11Shifting the balance in favour of low-carbonenergy has been estimated to cost approximately 0.5%or less of GDP for the current decade.12

The carbon economy is largely responsible forthe incredible growth in overall wealth societyhas amassed over the last 200 years, although,according to the World Bank, 1.3 billion peoplecontinue to remain trapped in dire poverty.13Regardless, an economic system developed tosupport a global population of 1 or 2 billion peoplein the 19thcentury is ill suited to a global populationin excess of 7 billion and growing.14

The climate challenge runs in parallel to other keyglobal developments: a growing world population,a major propensity to urbanization, and structural

by feedbacks such as a release

of Arctic methane deposits, more

rapid sea-level rise that could resu

from the disintegration of the Wes

Antarctic Ice Sheet or large-scale

climatic disruptions such as the

collapse of ocean circulation

mechanisms, all of which are

understood to pose signicantly

larger human, economic and

ecological risks than anything

portrayed here. The possibilities

of these events are by no means

ruled out, with risks increasing

substantially with warming.2Other

economists have therefore factore

such risks into their economic

analysis to a degree.3

Only with the deep and sustained

emissions reductions spelled out

in the lowest of the new IPCC RCP

2.6 scenario is there a reasonable

chance (comfortably over 50%) of

not exceeding the internationally

accepted safety temperature

threshold of 2C global mean

warming above preindustrial.4Given

the clear human, ecological and,

REGIONAL COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS, 2010-2100** PERCENTAGE OF GLOBAL GDP (NOMINAL), NET PRESENT VALUE AT 3% DISCOUNT RATEClimate + Carbon Costs Highest Action High Action Moderate Action Net Benet

RegionNo

Action

Highestaction(400ppm)

Highaction(450ppm)

Moderateaction(550ppm)

Avoidedcosts*

Mitigationcosts

Avoidedcosts*

Mitigationcosts

Avoidedcosts*

Mitigationcosts

Highestaction

HighAction

Moderataction

USA 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 1.5% 2.0% 1.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.5% 1.0% 1.0%Japan 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Russia 4.5% 1.5% 1.5% 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.5% 2.5% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%

China 4.5% 2.0% 2.0% 2.5% 2.5% 2.0% 2.5% 1.5% 2.0% 1.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.0%

India 11.0% 5.0% 5.5% 6.5% 6.0% 3.0% 5.5% 2.0% 4.5% 0.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0%

EU27 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

ROW 8.5% 3.5% 3.5% 4.5% 5.5% 2.0% 5.0% 1.0% 4.5% 0.5% 3.5% 4.0% 3.5%

World*** 4.0% 1.5% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 1.5% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%

*Avoided costs: No action (A1B +8.5 ) minus reduced ppm scenario (400 ppm C02e: RCP2.6; 450 ppm: RCP2.9; 550 ppm: SRES B1)** Discounted (3%) sum of costs and GDP mitigation costs from Edenhofer et al., 2010 (regional: Remind + Poles)*** Median value of all 5 scenarios (Edenhofer et al., 2010)


26/359

EXECUTIVE SUMMA

shifts occurr ing in economies around the world.All of these tendencies most pronounced indeveloping countries, in part icular the process ofindustrialization now spreading more and morewidely15 can worsen or attenuate vulnerabilities toclimate change or the carbon economy.In order to understand the fuller implications of thisstudy and to make its ndings comparable withprevious works that take on longer-term perspectives,the costs of climate change and the carbon economywere also estimated for the period up until 2100. Onthis basis, business-as-usual development could seethe costs of inaction exceeding 10% of global GDP inlosses prior to 2100.Reducing emissions results in net benets for societyin every case because the costs of a low-carbontransition are more than outweighed by averted lossesdue to climate change and the carbon economy.In the global context, the highest level of emissionreductions results in similar global benets tolower levels of action. However, the highest ac tionsees fewer negative impacts on society fromhuman health to biodiversity and for the worldsoceans but requires slightly greater investmentsin low-emission forms of energ y. Less ambitiousaction means accepting larger scales of human andecological impacts.The regional analysis of cost s and benets

differs little in fundamental terms from the globalanalysis: all regions benet from climate act ion ineconomic terms. Most regions nd optimal climateaction in the high-action scenario. The highestaction to reduce emissions also limits the risksof crossing tipping points leading to large-scaleclimate disruptions.16Less ambitious action onclimate change does not: moderate action onclimate change has a high chance of exceeding theaccepted international temperature goal of holdingwarming below 2 C (3.6 F) above pre-industr iallevels.17The most vulnerable countries have calledfor warming to be limited below 1.5 C abovepre-industrial levels as they believe 2 C is far toodamaging and a risk to their survival.Neither should the risks of catastrophic impacts bediscarded as heresy: new research has highlightedgreat risks associated with heat, as opposed toocean-related immersion of countries, with heatrisks concerning far greater shares of the worldeconomy and its population. In particular, at certainlevels of high-end warming, large areas of the planetwould progressively begin to exceed the thermalmaximum at which human beings are able to surviveoutdoors.18The possibilities of very rapid climatechange are not implausible or ruled out by climatechange models, especially as the planet warmsbeyond the 2 degrees Celsius temperature threshold

ultimately, economic advantag

aiming for a highest-action sce

this reports ndings imply tha

the highest action targets wou

reap the most benets for the

world. Therefore, the highest-a

scenario is recommended to p

makers as the preferred target

enhancing and safeguarding g

prosperity. Mainstream econo

modelling shows that this tran

is technologically and econom

feasible but that action is need

now to get onto this pathway.5

International cooperation will c

be central to ensuring that the

of the transition are maintaine

the lowest most efcient level a

that the transition yields the h

co-benets.6

ACTION VERSUS INACTION OVER THE 21STCENTURYNPV OF GLOBAL CLIMATE/CARBON COSTS AND MITIGATION COSTS RELATIVE TO GDP(NOMINAL 2010-2100, 3% DISCOUNT RATE)

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

0

MITIGATION COST CARBON COST CLIMATE COST

NO ACTIONACTION

1.1%

0.4%

1.8%

1.3%

2.1%

21STCENTURY COSTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ACTION, INACTION AND MITIGATION8%

7%

6%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

0%

NO ACTION ACTION MITIGATION

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 20802060 20902070 2100

1See: Edenhofer et al., 2010; IPCC, 20122Weitzman, 2007; Hare in Mastny, 20093For example: Hope, 2006; Stern, 20064Pope et al., 20105For an overview of some leadingmitigation scenarios, see: Edenhofer etal., 2010; UNEP, 2011; IPCC, 2012a

6For example the economic benetsof cross-border emission reductioncooperat ion: De Cian and Tavoni, 2010

PERCENTAGE (%) OF NOMINAL GDP NON-DISCOUNTED

Action equals 450 ppm (RCP 2.9) No action equals mid-point of 2 non-stabilization scenarios (RCP 8.5 and SRES A1B)


27/359


the international community has set for itself.19Ofparticular long-term concern are 1500 gigatonnes ofCO

2(GtCO

2) of methane stored in frozen sediments

in the East-Siberian Sea at depths of less than 40to 50 metres.20This represents three times theamount of CO

2that could be released over much of

this century if the 2 degrees target is to be kept.21Asthe Arctic sea warms due to climate change, thesesediments are thawing and methane is already beingvisibly released at rates that currently exceed the

total amount of methane emitted through naturalprocesses over the entirety of the worlds oceans.22While all policy pathways for reducing emissionshave similar net benets in economic terms, thehighest-action route would clearly reap the greatesthuman, societal, economic and environmentalbenets, since it would ensure the greatest chancesof avoiding climate-triggered catast rophe and wouldminimize the human, social and environmentalimpacts of a hotter planet. Therefore, the coldcalculus of a hot planet implies the most ambitious

action on climate change is the savviest choice bothin monetary, humanitarian and environmental terms.The highest-act ion approach is the pathway that theanalysis in this report most supports.The world risks carbon lock-in due to high-intensitycarbon infrastructure plans still moving forward inthe near term, so the shift in focus to a low-carbontransition should likely occur prior to 2017 andcontinue aggressively thereafter.23Several majoreconomies will need to adjust and enact important

domestic policy and legislative initiatives in orderto make this a reality. Whatever the case, actionon climate change that seeks out internationalpartnership is most likely to further lessen the costsof a low-carbon transition and expand the benets ofthis transition for all concerned. This report documentsin part the potential benets of avoided impacts ofclimate change in addition to the potential co-benetsof emission reductions that are targeted at keyeconomic, health and environmental concerns.24

CLIMATE+CARBON

2030

ACUTE

2010

2030

SEVERE

2010

2030

HIGH

2010

2030

MODERATE

2010

2030

LOW

2010

54

21

31

27

38

59

55

73

6

4

CLIMATE

2030

ACUTE

2010

2030

SEVERE

2010

2030

HIGH

2010

2030

MODERATE

2010

2030

LOW

2010

67

20

21

38

20

24

31

44

45

58

1Hansen et al., 20052Kjellstrom et al., 2009a; McSweeneyet al., 2012

3ILO LABORSTA, 20124Storm and Naastepad, 2009; Wacker et al.,2006; Restuccia, et al., 2004; Storm andNaastepad, 2009; McMillan and Rodrik,2012

5Kjellstrom et al., 2009a-b6UN, 20127Ashdown et al., 20118Parry et al., 2009; EACC, 20109Cheung et al., 201010Puigdefaabregas, 199811

US EIA, 201112Edenhofer et al., 2010; IPCC, 2012b13Chen and Ravallion, 201214World Population Prospects/UN DESA, 201115OECD, 2012; IMF WEO, 2012; World

Population Prospects/UN DESA, 201116Pope et al., 201017UNFCCC, 200918Sherwood and Huber, 201019Wietzman, 200720Shakhova et al., 200821Meinshausen et al., 200922Shakhova et al., 2008 and 201023IAE, 2011; UNEP, 201124De Cian and Tavoni, 2010

= 5 countries (rounded)


28/359

EXECUTIVE SUMMAR

DROUGHT 18 4 4 * * 2 1 * 4 11 3

FLOODS & LANDSLIDES 94 10 10 * 2 6 1 * 21 66 5

STORMS 100 15 15 * 2 3 7 * 16 64 20

WILDFIRES * * * * * * * * * * *

TOTAL 213 29 29 * 5 14 10 1 40 142 28

BIODIVERSITY 389 78 78 * 8 26 36 9 56 299 80

DESERTIFICATION 20 4 5 * * * 2 1 5 4 6

HEATING & COOLING -77 -33 5 -38 1 2 24 -8 30 7 -65

LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY 2,400 311 314 -3 135 162 16 -1 1,035 1,364 49

PERMAFROST 153 31 31 * 1 10 3 17 5 68 5

SEA-LEVEL RISE 526 86 86 * 23 42 15 5 166 310 29

WATER 13 14 44 -30 3 -3 13 7 -21 45 39

TOTAL 3,461 491 563 -71 166 235 60 30 1,276 1,908 144

TOTAL 106 23 23 * 17 5 * 0.5 84 21 *

AGRICULTURE 367 50 51 * 27 17 3 2 208 144 8

FISHERIES 168 13 16 -3 7 7 1 -1 97 80 -3

FORESTRY 44 6 7 -1 * 4 * * 9 34 1

HYDRO ENERGY -24 -4 * -4 * -3 * * 3 -20 -1

TOURISM * * 5 -5 2 * -1 * 19 -16 -2

TRANSPORT 7 1 1 * * * 1 * * 1 6

TOTAL 565 66 80 -13 37 25 2 2 329 223 8

TOTAL GLOBAL RESULTS 4,345 609 695 -84 225 279 72 33 1,730 2,294 179 1

OIL SANDS 24 7 7 * * * 7 * 2 1 20

OIL SPILLS 38 13 13 * 1 6 6 0.5 3 24 9

TOTAL 61 20 20 * 1 6 13 0.5 5 25 29

BIODIVERSITY 1,734 291 291 * 32 128 114 17 236 1,034 349

CORROSION 5 1.5 1.5 * * 0.5 0.5 * 1 4 0.5

WATER 10 4 4 * * * 3 1 * 2 4

TOTAL 1,749 296 296 * 32 129 117 18 238 1,038 353

TOTAL 630 172 172 * 74 67 21 10 226 341 37

AGRICULTURE -171 15 17 -2 1 2 9 4 -58 -121 4

FISHERIES 77 9 9 * 1 7 0.5 * 5 70 2

FORESTRY 83 28 28 * 3 9 14 1 13 48 18

TOTAL -11 52 54 -2 4 18 24 5 -40 -3 24

TOTAL GLOBAL RESULTS 2,429 540 542 * 112 220 174 34 429 1,401 444 1

NET 2030 NET 2010LOSSES

2010GAINS2010

CARBON

CLIMATE

2010 2030

SUMMARY OF ECONOMIC IMPACT

Developed Other IndustDeveloping Country High EmittersDeveloping Country Low Emitters

Health impact Industry stresHabitat changeEnvironmental disastersBillions of dollars (2010 PPP)non-discounted. Totals do notcorrespond exactly due to rounding.

* Less than one billion dollars


29/359

24IFINDINGS AND OBSERVATIONS

1.THE MOST AMBITIOUS RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE IS THEMOST ADVANTAGEOUS POLICY IN HUMAN, ECONOMIC ANDENVIRONMENTAL TERMS

2.THE HUMAN TOLL OF INACTION COULD EXCEED 100 MILLION DEATHSBETWEEN NOW AND 2030 ALONE

3.

CLIMATE ACTION IS GOOD VALUE, BUT THE COST OF ADAPTING TOCLIMATE CHANGE HAS LIKELY BEEN UNDERESTIMATED

FINDINGS AND OBSERVATIONS


30/359

FINDINGS AND OBSERVATIO

4.

CLIMATE INJUSTICE IS EXTREME

5.CLIMATE INACTION COMPROMISES GLOBAL DEVELOPMENTAND POVERTY REDUCTION EFFORTS

6.INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE FINANCE: A CLEAR DEFAULTON COPENHAGEN/CANCUN COMMITMENTS


31/359

7.NOBODY IS SPAREDTHE GLOBAL CLIMATE CRISIS

26IFINDINGS AND OBSERVATIONS


32/359

8.OUTDATED ESTIMATES OF THE NEGATIVE EXTERNALITIES OF CLIMATEINACTION GUIDE TODAYS REGULATORY DECISIONS

FINDINGS AND OBSERVATION


33/359

FOR ALLNATIONAL POLICY MAKERSCOMMIT FIRMLY TO LOW-CARBON PROSPERITY

will

PRIORITIZE PARALLEL MEASURES TO ADAPT TO CLIMATE CHANGE

UNITE STRENGTHS IN INTERNATIONAL PARTNERSHIP

FOR GOVERNMENT GROUPSDEVELOPED COUNTRIES1.1 Support the vulnerable effectively:

1.2 Deliver fully on Copenhagen/Cancn

commitments:

28I RECOMMENDATIONS

RECOMMENDATIONS


34/359

1.3 Rescue the MDGs:

DEVELOPING COUNTRIES2.1 Prioritize climate policy with highest

co-benets:

2.2 Pledge strong national action:

2.3 Invest in national risk analysis:

HIGHLY VULNERABLE COUNTRIES3.1 Prioritize adaptation:

RECOMMENDATION


35/359

30IRECOMMENDATIONS

3.2 Boost domestic capacity:

3.3 Strengthen climate governance:

FOR CIVIL SOCIETY ANDTHE PRIVATE SECTOR

COMMUNICATORS AND THE MEDIA

4.1 Question received wisdom:

4.2 Promote awareness on risks as

opportunities:


36/359

4.3 Take a stand:

INVESTORS5.1 Perform comprehensive risk

analysis:

5.2 Encourage diversication

strategies:

5.3 Foster transition stability:

RECOMMENDATIO


37/359

32IRECOMMENDATIONS

RESEARCH COMMUNITY6.1 Encourage attribution research:

6.2 Expand global analysis:

6.3 Avoid misrepresentation of risks:

FOR THE INTERNATIONALDEVELOPMENT ANDHUMANITARIAN COMMUNITY

DEVELOPMENT ACTORS

7.1 Focus on economic development,education and environmental

governance:


38/359

7.2 Raise the disposable income

of farmers and shermen:

7.3 Integrate climate strategies to

revitalize development:

THE HUMANITARIAN SYSTEM8.1 Brace for change:

RECOMMENDATION


39/359

34I RECOMMENDATIONS

8.2 Establish a thematic funding

window for climate-linked emergency

response:

dis-attributed

8.3 Evolve thinking and partnerships:


40/359


41/359

INCEPTION AND DEVELOPMENTThe rst edition of the Monitor wasmeant to serve as a departurepoint for discussions to reneunderstanding of climatevulnerability. As stated in that 2010report, the goal has been to improveboth the methodology and theaccuracy of this tool going forward.

A number of considerations raisedduring the development of the rstreport by external review bodiescould not be adequately addressedat that time, but instead have fedinto development of the secondedition. So while this new reportwas only formally commissioned inNovember 2011, the second Monitornevertheless has its origins wellrooted in the rst.The original Monitor approached theproblem of climate change in a non-technical but policy-relevant way. Itestablished a conceptual frameworkthat assessed vulnerability at thenational level. But it allowed foran understanding of vulnerabilityas internationally uid not static,with todays isolated vulnerabilitiesrapidly becoming tomorrows sharedvulnerabilities. Separating outsome of the different componentsof vulnerability helped to show thatnearly every country in the worldfaces some aspect of the problemto a high degree. Much of thearchitecture of the original report isretained in this Monitor.Not unsurprisingly, a number ofheadline conclusions from the2010 report still hold, such as aninsufcient focus on the humanhealth impacts affecting mostvulnerable communities or the highlysignicant links between a countrys

level of vulnerability to climatechange and its human developmenstatus. However, it became evidentthat not all original country-levelresults were satisfactory and thatcertain sections of the originalreport oversimplied the socio-economic effects of climate changeNor did the original format providesufcient granularity for sector-leve

effects (economic impacts werelimited to land and marine)or convey key nuances betweendifferent levels of certainty.Much of the difculty stemmedfrom a heavy reliance on third-partglobal or regional macro modelsthat pooled information at thoselevels, leading to a certain degreeof inaccuracy in the results for somcountries, since the informationwasnt designed for the Monitorsnation-by-nation analysis. Thissecond edition continued to drawon other studies; however, it st ill dinot solve the challenge of providingaccurate national-level outputs.The difculties of re-running climatimpacts models developed by otheis a recognised issue for the eld(Nordhaus, 2011).The second Monitors now greatlyexpanded set of indicators istherefore primarily anchored inindividual bodies of recent researchpertaining to discrete effect areas,such as distinct economic sectors(agriculture, sheries, forestry,etc.) and specic resource, healthor environmental impacts (e.g.water, heat and cold illnesses andbiodiversity). DARA has also workedwith additional external advisorybodies in order to further the rangeof inputs. The new Monitor alsoincludes a new thematic pillar.

36IRESEARCH PROCESS

RE

SEARC

HP

ROCESS


42/359

RESEARCH PROCE

While the original edition focusedon the effect of Climate, thisedition focuses on both Climateand Carbon. The new section onthe socio-economic impacts ofthe carbon economy came fromrecognition that there is a distinct,symbiotic relationship betweenclimate change concerns and thecarbon economy. Viewing climate

policy more holistically will helpdecision makers form parallel orcombined responses to both theconsequences of global warmingand its root causes.Another major adjustment to thesecond Monitor is the inclusionof in-depth country-level input,including eld research andexchanges with local specialists.This input was viewed as a mustfor the effective development of animproved Monitor report, and thegovernments and experts of Ghanaand Vietnam fully embraced andengaged with that process.

CONSULTATION& COUNTRY RESEARCHEXTERNAL ADVISORY BODIESTwo external advisory bodies haveprovided critical input at variousintervals during the course of theMonitors development. A seniorAdvisory Panel provides strategicguidance on the Monitors framing,analysis and recommendations.An open format Peer ReviewCommittee provides specialistand technical input in particularon methodological and theoreticalissues.Participants in these two bodiesserve in a non-remunerated

personal capacity and representa broad spectrum of expertiseand viewpoints on the topic aswell as a variety of stakeholdergroups whose perspectives andinvolvement have helped enrichthe Monitors development,analysis and presentation. Theresearch team responds to everyquestion and critique from these

groups and endeavours to reectall input within the limitations ofthe overall project.The expectations for the secondMonitor were presented to thereport advisory bodies at thebeginning of 2012 in the formof an Inception Report to whichDARA received a rst round ofsubstantive feedback.The second Monitor thenunderwent two separatemethodological and quantitativereviews by its Peer ReviewCommittee, including a full-dayworkshop in Geneva in April2012. A dialogue betweenCommittee members andthe Research Team was alsoorganised with representativesof the Climate Vulnerable Forumon that occasion. A draft reportwas submitted for review toboth bodies in August 2012 andadjusted prior to public release.Individual members of theadvisory bodies comment onlyon certain aspects of the project,not on its ent irety, based on theirexpertise, availability and otherconsiderations.While the Monitor benets fromexternal advisory bodies andopen peer review, the systemand approach of this project is tobe distinguished from academic

peer-reviewed scientic literaThis report is designed pr imaa policy and communication that strives for technical accuin encapsulating the scientiwork of third parties togetherother forms of qualitative andquantitative information, incleld-based research.

COUNTRY STUDIESCountry studies were undertain Vietnam and Ghana in Mar2012. In each case, a half-danational workshop was conveto present conclusions of desresearch conducted by DARAto seek substantive input fromstakeholders and policy makacross public, private and civsociety groups. Two representerritorial units were also idein each country for eld reseaand dozens of extended interwere conducted there withsenior representatives of locagovernment, civil society andbusiness groups.

ADDITIONAL CONSULTATIONSClimate Vulnerable Forumdelegates were briefed on theMonitors progress at an ofcopen session of the group atthe UN climate change talks Bonn, Germany in May 2012.Additionally, some early resufrom the Monitor project werepresented and discussedpublicly at an ofcial ClimateVulnerable Forum Side Event the UN Conference on SustaiDevelopment (Rio+20) in RioJaneiro in June 2012.


43/359

38IRESEARCH PROCESS

121110

7

8

9

DURBANUNFCCC COP17

Ofcial Forum Side EventPresentation of theDhaka Declaration

December 2011

1STMETHODOLOGICALQUANTITATIVE

REVIEWMonitor 2ndEd.April 2012

INCEPTIONREPORT

Monitor 2ndEd.February 2012

YEN BAI,VIETNAMField Research

March 2012

BOLGATANGA,

GHANAField ResearchMarch 2012ACCRA

National WorkshopMarch 2012

HANOINational Workshop

March 2012

BEN TRE,VIETNAMField Research

March 2012

SOUTH-EASTCOAST, GHANA

Field Research

March 2012

ADVISORYPANEL

STEERINGGR

OUP

56

RE

SEARC

HP

ROCESS


44/359

RESEARCH PROCES

151413

1

2

1

LONDONLaunch of Monitor 1stEd.

December 2010

DOHAUNFCCC COP18

Ofcial Forum Side EventNovember 2012

CANCNUNFCCC COP16

Launch of Monitor 1stEd.December 2010

DHAKAClimate Vulnerable Forum

Ministerial MeetingNovember 2011

2NDMETHODOLOGICA

QUANTITATIVE REVIEMonitor 2ndEd.

July 2012

RIO DE JANEIROUN Conference on

Sustainable Development

Ofcial Forum Side EventJune 2012

BONNUNFCCC Intercessional

Negotiations

Ofcial Forum Side EventMay 2012

GENEVAPeer Review

Committee WorkshopApril 2012

WASHINGTON, DExpert Discussion

October 2012

NEW YORKLaunch of Monitor 2ndEd

September 2012

DRAFT REPORTREVIEW

Monitor 2ndEd.August 2012

3 2 1

ED

ITORIAL/RESEARCHT

EAM

PEERREVIEW

COMMITT

EE

CLIMATEVULNERABILITYMONITOR

2

ND EDITION


45/359


46/359

KEYISSUES


47/359

42IKEY ISSUES

ADDITIONALDEATHS

2010

2,7502030 3,500 2010 2,5002030 3,500

2010 20,0002030 45,000

2010 35,0002030 35,000

201030,000

2030 40,0002010

20,000

2030 20,000

2010 55,0002030 80,000

2010 85,0002030 150,000

2010 225,0002030 380,000

2010 1.4 MILLION2030 2.1 MILLION

2010 3.1 MILLION2030 3.1 MILLION

Floods & landslides Storms Diarrheal infections Heat & cold illnesses Hunger Malaria & vector-borne Meningitis

Air pollution Indoor smoke Occupational hazards Skin cancer


48/359

DEATHS/COST

Enviromental disaster s Habitat change Health Industry stress = Billion USD PPP (2010 non-discounted) - negative values show gains

ADDITIONALCOSTS

2010 292030 213

2010 202030 61

2010 232030 106

2010 1722030 630

2010 662030 565

2010 522030 -11

2010 4912030 3,461

2010

2030

Climate Carbon


49/359

ARID REGIONS

FARMERS

CYCLONE BELT COUNTRIES

SIDS

ARID FORESTED ZONES

DEFORESTATION ZONES

INDIGENOUS GROUPS

DRYLAND COMMUNITIES

AFRICA

HUMID TROPICAL COUNTRIES

PREGNANT WOMEN

SMALL CHILDREN

ELDERLY

ARCTIC COMMUNITIES

MOUNTAINOUS COMMUNITIES

SMALL ISLANDS

LOW-ELEVATION COASTAL COMMUNITIES

COASTAL CITIES

SUBSISTENCE FARMERS

WATER-INTENSIVE INDUSTRIES

CHILDREN

INFANTS

LOWER-INCOME COMMUNITIES/GROUPS

CHRONIC DISEASE SUFFERERS

OUTDOOR WORKERS

CITIES

SUBSISTENCE FISHERFOLK

REMOTE COMMUNITIES

SAHEL MENINGITIS BELT

YOUNG ADULTS

44IKEY ISSUES

AFFECTED GROUPS


50/359

TROPICAL COUNTRIES

LIVELIHOODS DERIVED FROM FISHING

ENERGY COMPANIES

BEACH RESORTS

LOW-ELEVATION WINTER RESORTS

DENSELY POPULATED RIVER WAYS

OIL SAND HOST COMMUNITIES

COASTAL COMMUNITIES

TROPICAL FOREST COMMUNITIES/ZONES

NEWLY-INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES

TRANSITION ECONOMIES

INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES

WOMEN

RURAL POPULATIONS WITH POOR ENERGY ACCESS

COAL MINERS

VEHICLE DRIVERS

COAL AND GAS POWER PLANT WORKERS

FAIR SKINNED

DEVELOPED COUNTRIES

CHINA

RIVER BASINS

OUTDOOR OCCUPATIONS

MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES

HEAVILY LABOURING WORKERS

LOWER INCOME COMMUNITIES

FISHERMEN

AFFECTED GROUP

Drought Floods & landslides Storms Wildres Biodive

Diarrheal infections Heat & cold illnesses Hunger Malaria & vec

Meningitis Desertication Heating and Cooling Labour productiv

Sea level rise Agriculture Fisheries Tourism Water

Forestry Hydro Energy Transport Permafrost

Biodiversity Fisheries Oil sands Air pollution Indoor sm

OIL Spills Water Skin cancer Agriculture Forestry

Corrosion Occupational hazards


51/359

GEOPOLITICS

Climate Carbon

G8

G20

BRIC

SIDSs

LDCs

OECD

G8

G20

BRIC

SIDSs

LDCs

OECD

2010 2030

DEATHS DUE TO CLIMATE AND CARBON PER 100,000

DEVELOPEDCOUNTRIES

BASIC SIDSOTHERINDUSTRIALIZED

COUNTRIES

LLDC LDC0

23

0

28

2

59

2

57

7

84

11

90

12

110

12

80

16

112

15

77

5

40

6

39

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

Climate, 2010 Climate, 2030

Carbon, 2010 Carbon, 2030

46IKEY ISSUES

CLIMATE

Acute Severe High Moderate Low


52/359

OECD

LDCs

G8

G20

BRIC

SIDSs

OECD

LDCs

G8

G20

BRIC

SIDSs

2010 2030

COSTS DUE TO CLIMATE AND CARBON, % OF GDP

BASIC: Brazil, South Africa, India and China

LLDC: Land Locked Developing Countries

LDC: Least Developed Countries

SIDS: Small Island Developing States

DEVELOPEDCOUNTRIES

BASIC SIDSOTHERINDUSTRIALIZED

COUNTRIES

LLDC LDC

0.2%0.5%

0.3%

0.8%0.6% 0.6%

0.8% 0.9%1.1%

0.9%

2.0%

1.1%

3.3%

2.1%1.7%

2.5%

4.0%

3.3%

7.9%

3.3%

1.9% 1.8%

3.8%

1.0%

9%

8%

7%

6%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

0%

GEOPOLITIC

CARBON


53/359

Climate Carbon Economic Cost (billion PPP USD)

182,000INDIA333,00017,000PAKISTAN37,000

26,000NIGERIA31,00017,000DR CONGO25,00015,000

BANGLADESH21,000

10,000ETHIOPIA16,000

9,000INDONESIA13,000

8,000AFGHANISTAN13,0007,000MYANMAR11,000

6,000SUDAN/SOUTH SUDAN8,000

6,000TANZANIA8,0005,000UGANDA7,000

4,000MOZAMBIQUE6,000

4,000ANGOLA5,000

3,000BRAZIL5,000

3,000COTE D'IVOIRE5,000

3,000NIGER4,000

4,000CAMERON4,000

3,000BURKINA FASO4,000

3,000CHAD4,000

72CHINA72789INDIA680

48MEXICO36836INDONESIA282

21

THA

climate vulnerability monitor 2nd edition (dara, 2012)

Documents