climate: what we know about it, how we know about it, and what we’re doing to it.]
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Climate: What we know about it, How we know
about it, and What we’re doing to it.]
CO2 and the Greenhouse Effect
CO2 concentrations between 1995 and 1990
CO2 concentrations in ice cores 1000 to 2000 AD
global view:
CO2 concentrations 1000 to 2000 AD.
Note change during industrial revolution!
Global
Antarctica
How the Greenhouse effect works
1. Different frequencies of light act differently
2. Greenhouse Gasses in Earth’s atmosphere trap infrared light (heat)
Same process that makes your car warm on a cold winter day, or heats up a Greenhouse!
Most of the radiant energy from the sun is concentrated in the visible and near-visible parts of the spectrum.
The narrow band of visible light, between 400 and 700 nm, represents 43% of the total radiant energy emitted.
Water, Carbon Dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4), Nitrous Oxide (N2O), Fuorocarbons (CFCs)
What are the major Greenhouse Gasses?
Greenhouse EffectThe rise in temperature that the Earth experiences because certain gases in the atmosphere trap energy from the sun.
Without these gases, heat would escape back into space and Earth’s average temperature would be about 60ºF colder.
Because of how they warm our planet, these gases are referred to as greenhouse gases.
Gases include: water vapor, carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane
Trace greenhouse gases are relatively transparent to incoming visible light from the sun, yet opaque to the energy radiated from the earth.
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Year A.D.
relative temperature (Celcius)
Northern Hemisphere Temperature since 1900 A.D.
Northern Hemisphere Temperature since 1400 A.D.
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Year A.D.
relative temperature (Celcius)
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Year A.D.
relative temperature (Celcius)
Temperature
Carbon Dioxide
What does the future hold?
• What is “climate variability”?• What is “interannual climate variability?”• Why is it important?• What can we learn about past climate?• How are our activities impacting climate?
Climate varies on long (millennial) timescales
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0.20.40.60.8
11.21.41.6
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Age (thousands of years)
_18 (‰)O
Climate varies on short (interannual) timescales
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Year A.D .
relative temperature
Why is understanding interannual variability important?
1) It is necessary if we are going to make a reasonable prediction of future climate.
Why is understanding interannual variability important?
2) It provides a framework for understanding variability in other systems.
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Sea surface temperatures.
Time for a movie!
The isotope paleothermometer
• The 18O isotope ratio in water is influenced by temperature – both during evaporation of H2O from the ocean and its eventual precipitation on land as rain or snow.
• At high latitudes, there is a very strong, approximately linear relationship between 18O and local temperature.
What is “delta 18 O”?
( )
definitionby 0
1000*1
/
standard
18
standard
sample18
161818
≡
⎟⎠
⎞⎜⎝
⎛−=
=
O
R
RO
OOR O
δ
δThe ratio of 18O/16O in ice is compared to the ratio of 18O/16O in average ocean water.
This comparison is called 18O.
Variations in the 18O of the oxygen in the water molecule, H2O, is used in climate studies
Why does 18O relate to temperature?
↔ lvEQlv OHOHOHOH 182
162
162
182 ++
This equilibrium is temperature dependent
The O18/O16 ratio provides an accurate record of ancient water temperature.
d18Ollllliiiiiqqqqquuuuuiiiiiddddd=====00000
d18Ov~-10‰
d18Ov<<-10‰
d18Osnow
~-40‰
poleward moisture transport
d18Ov~-30‰
d18Orain~0‰ddddd1111188888OOOOOrrrrraaaaaiiiiinnnnn<<<<<<<<<<00000‰‰‰‰‰
adiabatic cooling
Worldwide Ice Core Sites
Mt. Logan, Yukon (Canada)
What can we learn about interannual climate variability from ice cores?
Annual layers in glacier ice
Central England temperature estimates
After Lamb, 1982
“Medieval warm period”
“Little ice age”
Ice core data: trends removed
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Year
anomaly (per mil)r =+ .52
Siple – 1400-1983
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Year
Temperature anomaly
Siple Dome- 1900-1996
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Year
Temperature anomaly
Abrupt Climate Change
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Age (years)
Temperature (C)
End of the “Younger Dryas” took <50 years
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Year A.D.
relative temperature (Celcius)
Inst
rum
enta
l dat
a
(ther
mom
eter
s!)
“Proxy” data(tree rings, ice cores, corals)
Central Greenland temperatures
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Temperature (C)
10-year average temperatures from the GISP2 ice core
Central Greenland 18O
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0 200 400 600 800 1000Age (years)
18 (‰)O
The GISP2 ice core record
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0 5000 10000 15000Age (years)
Temperature (C)
Northern Hemisphere Temperature since 1400 A.D.
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Year A.D.
relative temperature (Celcius)
Ice coring sites
Queen Maud Land
Siple Dome
Siple
Spatial covariance of Antarctic temperature with PC1
Antarctic T trends since 1982
AVHRR (infrared) satellite observations
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1958 1968 1978 1988 1998
Year
18O (‰)
Queen Maud Land
Siple Dome
Siple
What to do next?
A good example is how Society dealt with the Ozone Hole
1. UV radiation breaks off a chlorine atom from a CFC molecule.
2. The chlorine atom attacks an ozone molecule (03), breaking it apart and destroying the ozone.
3. The result is an ordinary oxygen molecule (0) and a chlorine monoxide molecule (ClO).
4. The chlorine monoxide molecule (ClO) is attacked by a free oxygen atom releasing the chlorine atom and forming an ordinary oxygen molecule (O).
5. The chlorine atom is now free to attack and destroy another ozone molecule (03). One chlorine atom can repeat this destructive cycle thousands of times.