Science&Theme&#1!

Climate(Assessments(and(Projectionsfor(Decision(Making(by(Resource(Managers

!

Steve!VavrusCenter!for!Climatic!ResearchUniversity!of!Wisconsin

!Michael!NotaroDavid!Lorenz

Jana!Stewart!USGS!–!WI!Water!Science!CenterWDNR!C!John!Lyons,!Matthew!Mitro,!Paul!CunninghamUSGS!C!Steve!Westenbroek,!Alex!Covert,!Jim!McKennaMSU!–!Dana!Infante,!Dan!Wieferich,!Damon!KruegerMI!IFR!–!Kevin!WehrlyIJC!–!Lizhu!WangJohn!Walker!USGS!–!WI!Water!Science!CenterUSGS!–!Randy!Hunt,!Kevin!KenowUW!Limonology!–!Paul!HansenWDNR!–!Michael!Meyer

!!

Climate(Assessments(and(Projections• Steve%Vavrus%(Consortium%speaker)%%%44%Meteorology,%Climate%Modeling,%Climate%Change%%44%Member%of%WICCI%(WI%Initiative%on%Climate%Change%Impacts)%%44%Assessing%projected%climate%change%(weather%extremes)%%44%Statistical%downscaling%of%climate%models%over%Wisconsin%• Jana%Stewart%(Stakeholder%speaker)44Understanding%impacts%of%climate%change%on%streamtemperature,%%%fish%species%occurrence%and%distribution44%Vulnerability%of%fish%species%to%climate%change%(UMGL%LCC%andNECSC);%WI%Fish%Climate%Change%(WDNR/USGS);%NorEaST%StreamTemperature%Mapper%(NECSC)44Walker%>%Using%loosely%coupled%models%to%assess%climateimpacts%on%loon%occurrence%in%northern%WI%(Focus%on%Energy)

• Science&background//&“Statistical&Downscaling&of&Climate&Projections&Across&the&Landscape&&&Conservation&Cooperatives&of&Central/Eastern&North&America”//&&Supported&by&Upper&Midwest&and&Great&Lakes&LCC//&&Objective&to&statistically&downscale&global&climate&model&simulations&to&&&scales&relevant&for&decision&makers&(around&10&km&resolution)

&

Climate(Assessments(and(Projections

• Science&background//&“Statistical&Downscaling&of&Climate&Projections&Across&the&Landscape&&&Conservation&Cooperatives&of&Central/Eastern&North&America”//&&Supported&by&Upper&Midwest&and&Great&Lakes&LCC//&&Objective&to&statistically&downscale&global&climate&model&simulations&to&&&scales&relevant&for&decision&makers&(around&10&km&resolution)

&

Climate(Assessments(and(Projections

DownscalingRegion

Statistical(Downscaling(Product

Source 13(CMIP3(/(IPCC(AR4(global(climate(modelsScenarios A2,$A1B,$B1

Time(Periods 1961)2000,$2046)2065,$and$2081)2100

Temporal(Resolution Daily

Spatial(Resolution 0.1°$x$0.1°

Region LCCs$east$of$the$Rockies

Variables Maximum$&$Minimum$temperature,$Precipitation

Format Cumulative$Distribution$Functions$or$Multiple

Realizations

Data(Type Netcdf

A2$=$High$GHG$emissions$$B1$=$Lower$emissions

Global(ClimateModel(Output

(coarse(resolution)

Downscaled(ClimateModel(Output(fine(resolution)

Change'in'Maximum'Daily'Temperature'(F):'2081<2100'vs.'1961<2000

A2B1 Midwest:≈6°F

Midwest:≈10°F

Least4warming

4Annual 4Annual

4 4

4 4

Winter 4Winter4Spring 4Spring

4Summer 4Summer4Autumn 4Autum

n

Change'in'Precipitation'(inches/yr):'208192100'vs.'196192000

A2B1 Midwest:0.to.+4”

Midwest:0.to.+7”

Nodal.Line.

Annual

.Winter .Spring

.Summer .Autumn

.Annual

.Winter .Spring

.Summer .Autumn

Change'in#'90°F+Days'PerYear!

208182100vs.'196182000

B1 A2

Change'in#'Days'of

2”+PrecipitationPer'Decade

!208182100

vs.196182000

!!

B1 A2

1.#Assess#Vulnerability#of#Fish#species#to#Climate#Change!!Project!changes!in!stream!temperature!Project!changes!in!fish!species!occurrence!Score!vulnerability!of!fish!species/stream!reaches!Use!the!results!to!inform!management!plans

Climate#Change#–#Decision#Making#by#Resource#Managers1. Inform!fisheries!management!(species,!stream!resources,!lands!)2. Managing!lakes!for!common!loon!habitat

Eastern!US!downscaling!(UMGL!LCC) Wisconsin!downscaling!(WICCI)

Stream'Temperature'Model

DownscaledGCMs'(A1B)

Landscape'Characteristics

Exceedance'Flow'Model

FishVis'MAPPER

Fish'species'OccurrenceModels

Vulnerability'Assessment

CURRENTPREDICTIONS

Probability'ofOccurrence

and'FUTURELANDSCAPE'MODELS

Vulnerability

StreamStreamTemperature

BrookTrout

Current

Future Change

Occurrence9and9Vulnerability Resilience

ADAPTATION(STRATEGIES1)#Identify#and#allocate#management#resourcesto#those#coldwater#species#most#likely#tosucceed##(i.e#brown#trout#vs#brook#trout)!2)#Develop#activities#(land,#shoreline,#watermanagement,#instream#restoration)#to#offsetimpact#of#rising#air#and#water#temperatures#andchanges#in#precipitation

WDNR!–Confronting!Change!inCold!Water!Fisheries

Driftless!Area!Master!Planning(Cunningham,WNDR)Where#should#we#spendour#limited#landacquisition#dollars#and#ourfish#biologist’s#time?

PecatonicaRiver,Region

REPORT&CARD

Focus&on:

Where&is&best&natural&habitat?

Where&are&the&fish?

How&and&where&do&we&manage?

Where&is&the&existing&access?

How&will&conditions&change?

• Stream'Health'and'Habitat'Quality

• Sport'Fishery'Performance

• Thermal&Resilience&of&trout&streams

• Response&of&trout&&&SMB&to&Climate&Warming

• Public'Access'for'trout'&'SMB'angling

• Stream'restoration'work

2.#Assess#climate#impacts#on#common#loon#occurrence

Downscaledclimate

(DOC#plus#assumed#in8lake#Total#P)

Logistic#Regression(secchi#depth#+#habitat#suitability#+#pH)

=#probability#of#loon#occurrence

!

Crystal!Lake

2000 2040 2080

0.8

1.2

1.6

Annu

al a

vera

ge, i

n m

g/m

^3

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

In-lake DOC concentration

2000 2040 2080

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

Ann

ual a

vera

ge, i

n m

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

Secchi depth, 0% TP increase

2000 2040 2080

4.8

5.2

5.6

Ann

ual a

vera

ge, i

n m

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080

4.8

5.0

5.2

5.4

5.6

5.8

Secchi depth, 25% TP increase

Escanaba

WhiteBirch –

LittleRock

3 lakes3 TP levels (no change, 10% and

25% increase)3 Habitat conditions: (worse –

same – better) 2 Time periods: (2050 ……… 2090)

- not muchchange

if habitat worse, could see decline

if habitat improved, could see increase

COMMON LOON – PROBABILITY OFOCCURRENCE

More%information%and%feedback%at%afternoon%Learning%Circle!

Quantifying!and!conveying!uncertainty!in!climate!change,!impacts!

Most!useful!way!to!“package”!climate!model!output!for!decision!makers!!!!

A2A1BB1

MeanMedianIndiv..GCMsWISCONSIN

.Change.in

Temperature(°F).

2081D2100.vs.1961D2000

MeanMedianIndiv..GCMs

A2A1BB1 WISCONSIN

.Change.in

Precipitation.(inches/month)

.2081D2100.vs.1961D2000

Wetter.in.Spring.and.Autumn

Greatest.Warming.in.Winter

Change'in'Average'T'(F):'208152100'vs.'196152000(A2)

RawModels Downscaled

DownscalingProducesAmplifiedWarming,EspeciallyWinter