Clim

ate

Change

and F

ood

Sec

uri

ty

M.V.K. Sivakumar

Agricultural MeteorologyDivision

World MeteorologicalOrganization

Pre

senta

tion

Pre

senta

tion

•Clim

ate

chan

ge

–cu

rren

t tren

ds

•Clim

ate

chan

ge

–fu

ture

pro

ject

ions

•W

hy is cl

imat

e ch

ange

such

an im

portan

t is

sue

for fo

od

secu

rity

?

•Clim

atic

driver

s of fo

od inse

curity

•Im

plica

tions of fu

ture

clim

ate

chan

ge

for fo

od sec

urity

•A

gro

met

eoro

logic

alstra

tegie

s to

enhan

ce food sec

urity

•A

gro

met

eoro

logic

alre

sear

ch n

eeds

t

Carbon dioxide

•G

lobal

at

mosp

her

ic co

nce

ntrat

ion of

carb

on dio

xid

e has

in

crea

sed f

rom

a p

re-industrial

val

ue

of

about

280 p

pm

to

379 p

pm

in 2

005. T

his e

xce

eds by far

the

nat

ura

l ra

nge

over

th

e la

st 6

50,0

00 y

ears

(180 to 3

00 p

pm

) as

det

erm

ined

fro

m

ice

core

s.

•The

annual

car

bon d

ioxid

e co

nce

ntrat

ion g

row

th-rat

e of

1.9

ppm

per

yea

r during t

he

10 y

ear

per

iod 1

995 –

2005 w

as

larg

er t

han

it

has

bee

n s

ince

the

beg

innin

g o

f co

ntinuous

direc

t at

mosp

her

ic m

easu

rem

ents (1960 –

2005 a

ver

age:

1.4

ppm

per

yea

r).

•A

nnual

foss

il c

arbon d

ioxid

e em

issi

ons

incr

ease

d f

rom

an

aver

age

of

6.4

GtC

per

yea

r in

the

1990s, to 7

.2 G

tCper

yea

r in

2000–2005.

Methane and Nitrous Oxide

•The global atmospheric concentration of methane has

increased from a pre-industrial value of about 715 ppb to

1732 ppb in the early 1990s, and is 1774 ppb in 2005.

•The atm

ospheric concentration of methane in 2005

exceeds by far the natural range of the last 650,000 years

(320 to 790 ppb) as determ

ined from ice cores.

•The global

atm

ospheric nitrous oxide concentration

increased from a pre-industrial value of about 270 ppb to

319 ppb in 2005.

The Land and Oceans have warm

ed

•Eleven of the last twelve years (1995 -2006) rank among the

12 warm

est years in the instrumental record of global

surface temperature (since 1850).

•The updated 100-year linear trend (1906–2005) of 0.74 °C

is therefore larger than the corresponding trend for 1901-

2000 given in the TAR of 0.6 °C.

•The linear warm

ing trend over the last 50 years (0.13 °C per

decade) is nearly twice that for the last 100 years.

•Observations

since

1961

show

that

the

average

temperature of the global ocean has increased to depths of

atleast3000 m

and that the ocean has been absorbing m

ore

than 80% of the heat added to the clim

ate system.

(Top) Patterns of linear global temperature trends over the period 1979 to 2005

estimated at the surface (left)andfor the troposphere (Bottom) Annual global

mean temperatures (black dots) with linear fits to the data.

Time series of global ocean heat content (1022J) for the 0 to 700 m layer.

Precipitation patterns have changed

•M

ore

inte

nse

and longer

dro

ughts h

ave

bee

n o

bse

rved

over

w

ider

are

as s

ince

the

1970s, p

articu

larly in the

tropic

s an

d

subtropic

s.

•In

crea

sed dry

ing linked

w

ith hig

her

te

mper

ature

s an

d

dec

reas

ed pre

cipitat

ion hav

e co

ntrib

ute

d to

ch

anges

in

dro

ught.

•C

han

ges

in s

ea s

urfac

e te

mper

ature

s, w

ind p

atte

rns, a

nd

dec

reas

ed sn

ow

pac

k an

d sn

ow

co

ver

hav

e al

so bee

n

linked

to d

roughts.

•Fre

quen

cy of

hea

vy pre

cipitat

ion ev

ents in

crea

sed over

m

ost la

nd ar

eas, co

nsisten

t w

ith w

arm

ing an

d obse

rved

in

crea

ses of at

mosp

her

ic w

ater

vap

our.

Annual averages of the global mean sea level based on reconstructed sea

level fields since 1870 (red), tide gauge measurements since 1950 (blue) and

satellite altimetry since 1992 (black). Units are in mm relativeto the average

for 1961 to 1990.

Sea

Lev

elshave

rise

n

•N

on-p

ola

r gla

cier

ret

reat

•Sat

ellite

dat

a sh

ow

that

annual

aver

age

Arc

tic

sea

ice

exte

nt has

shru

nk

by 2.7

% per

dec

ade,

w

ith la

rger

dec

reas

es in

su

mm

er of

7.4

%

per

dec

ade.

•Ear

lier

flo

wer

ing a

nd longer

gro

win

g a

nd b

reed

ing sea

son for pla

nts a

nd

anim

als in

the

Norther

n H

emispher

e (N

.H.)

•Pole

war

dan

d u

pw

ard (al

titu

din

al) m

igra

tion o

f pla

nts, birds, fish a

nd

inse

cts; e

arlier

spring m

igra

tion a

nd lat

er d

epar

ture

of birds in

the

N.H

.

•In

crea

sed inci

den

ce o

f co

ral ble

achin

g

Obse

rved

reg

ional ch

anges

in tem

per

atu

re h

ave

bee

n

ass

oci

ate

d w

ith o

bse

rved

changes

in p

hysi

cal and b

iolo

gic

al

syst

ems

Weather-relatedeconomicdamages have increased

Great NaturalDisasters

1950 –

2005

Economic

and insuredlosses

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

© 2006 NatCatSERVICE, Geo RisksResearch, Munich Re

Economic losses (2005 values)

Insured losses (2005 values)

Trend of economic losses

Trend of insured losses

US$ bn.

Future projections

Future projections

•The

glo

bal

ly a

ver

aged

surf

ace

tem

per

ature

is

pro

ject

ed

to incr

ease

by 1

.8 to 4

.0°C

(2090-2

099 rel

ativ

e to

1980-

1999).

•The

pro

ject

ed rat

e of w

arm

ing is m

uch

lar

ger

than

the

obse

rved

chan

ges

during the

20th

cen

tury

and is ver

y

likel

y to b

e w

ithout pre

ceden

t during a

t le

ast th

e la

st

10,0

00 y

ears

.

•G

lobal

mea

n sea

lev

el is pro

ject

ed to ris

e by 0

.18 to 0

.59

met

res (2

090-2

099 rel

ativ

e to

1980-1

999).

Future projections

Future projections

•Snow

cover

is pro

ject

ed to c

ontrac

t.

•Sea

ic

e is

pro

ject

ed to

sh

rink in

both

th

e A

rctic

and

Anta

rctic.

In s

om

e pro

ject

ions, A

rctic

late

-sum

mer

sea

ice

disap

pea

rs al

most en

tire

ly by th

e la

tter

par

t of

the

21st

centu

ry.

•It i

s very likely

that

hot

extrem

es,

hea

t w

aves

, an

d h

eavy

pre

cipitat

ion e

ven

ts w

ill co

ntinue

to b

ecom

e m

ore

fre

quen

t.

•It is

likely th

at fu

ture

tropic

al cy

clones

(typhoons

and

hurric

anes

) w

ill bec

om

e m

ore

inte

nse

, w

ith lar

ger

pea

k w

ind

spee

ds an

d m

ore

hea

vy p

reci

pitat

ion

The Challenge: Sustainable M

anagement of

an Ever-Changing Planet

““Climate C

hange is a far greater threat to the world than

Climate C

hange is a far greater threat to the world than

intern

ational terrorism

intern

ational terrorism

””

Sir

David

Kin

g, U

K C

hie

f Sci

entific

Advis

or

Sir

David

Kin

g, U

K C

hie

f Sci

entific

Advis

or

““II ’’m no longer sk

eptica

lm no longer sk

eptica

l ……I

no longer have

doubts...I

I no longer have

doubts...I

think clim

ate ch

ange

is the

major ch

allen

ge

facing the

think clim

ate ch

ange

is the

major ch

allen

ge

facing the

earth

earth””

Bill C

linto

n, Form

er U

S P

resi

den

tBill C

linto

n, Form

er U

S P

resi

den

t

What

Whatisis

Food S

ecuri

ty ?

Food S

ecuri

ty ?

Food s

ecurity

exists

when

all p

eople

, at

all t

imes

, hav

e

physi

cal, soci

al a

nd e

conom

ic a

cces

s to

suffic

ient, saf

e an

d

nutritio

us

food w

hic

h m

eets

thei

r die

tary

nee

ds

and f

ood

pre

fere

nce

s fo

r an

act

ive

and h

ealthy life.

House

hold

food

secu

rity

is

th

e ap

plica

tion of

this

co

nce

pt

to th

e fa

mily

level

, w

ith i

ndiv

idual

s w

ithin

house

hold

s as

the

focu

s of

conce

rn.

Food inse

curity

exists

when

peo

ple

do n

ot hav

e ad

equat

e

physi

cal, so

cial

or

econom

ic ac

cess

to

fo

od as

def

ined

above.

FAO (2002)

Food Inse

curi

ty

Food Inse

curi

ty ––

a H

um

an T

raged

ya H

um

an T

raged

y

•Each day 800 million people go hungry

•Among them are 170 million children

under 5 years of age

Why

Why

isisC

lim

ate

Clim

ate

Change

Change

such

such

an

an

Import

ant Is

sue

for

Food S

ecuri

ty ?

Import

ant Is

sue

for

Food S

ecuri

ty ?

••Clim

ate

chan

ge

impac

ts

the

Clim

ate

chan

ge

impac

ts

the

physi

cal,

soci

al

or

econom

ic

physi

cal,

soci

al

or

econom

ic

acce

ss to food.

acce

ss to food.

••Ther

e ar

e Ther

e ar

e se

ver

alse

ver

alcl

imat

iccl

imat

icdriver

s driver

s

of

of fo

od

food

inse

curity

inse

curity

..

Clim

atic

Dri

ver

s of Food Inse

curi

ty:

Clim

atic

Dri

ver

s of Food Inse

curi

ty:

Wea

ther

Ris

ks

Wea

ther

Ris

ks

•In

man

y d

evel

opin

g c

ountrie

s w

her

e ra

infe

dag

ricu

lture

is th

e norm

, a

good r

ainy s

easo

n m

eans

good c

rop

pro

duct

ion,

enhan

ced fo

od se

curity

an

d a

hea

lthy e

conom

y.

•A

s m

uch

as

80%

of

the

var

iability in

agricu

ltura

l pro

duct

ion i

s due

to t

he

var

iability in w

eath

er c

onditio

ns

•Fai

lure

of

rain

s an

d occ

urren

ce of

nat

ura

l disas

ters

su

ch as

floods

and

dro

ughts c

ould

lea

d t

o c

rop f

ailu

res,

food

inse

curity

, fa

min

e,

loss

of

pro

per

ty a

nd life,

mas

s m

igra

tion, an

d

neg

ativ

e nat

ional

eco

nom

ic g

row

th.

Climatic Drive

rs of Food Insecu

rity: Increa

sing

Extremes

Clim

atic

Dri

ver

s of Food Inse

curi

ty: N

atu

ral dis

ast

ers

•Clim

ate

chan

ge

and

the

asso

ciat

ed

sever

e w

eath

er

even

ts that

are

res

ponsible

for

nat

ura

l disas

ters

im

pac

t th

e

soci

o-e

conom

ic

dev

elopm

ent

of m

any n

atio

ns

•A

nnual

eco

nom

ic c

osts

rela

ted

to n

atura

l dis

aste

rs

estim

ated

at a

bout U

S$ 5

0–100 b

illion.

Dri

ver

s of Food Inse

curi

ty: N

atu

ral R

esourc

e D

river

s of Food Inse

curi

ty: N

atu

ral R

esourc

e

Deg

radation a

nd T

echnolo

gy D

epri

vation

Deg

radation a

nd T

echnolo

gy D

epri

vation

�C

urren

t deg

radat

ion o

f

nat

ura

l re

sourc

es

�Poor ac

cess

to

tech

nolo

gie

s

�Low

inves

tmen

ts in

pro

duct

ion

Implica

tions of Futu

re

Implica

tions of Futu

re C

lim

ate

Clim

ate

Change

Change

for

Food S

ecuri

tyfo

r Food S

ecuri

ty

Sourc

es o

f w

orl

d

Sourc

es o

f w

orl

d food

food

pro

duct

ion

pro

duct

ion

•Tota

l ar

able

and p

erm

anen

t cr

opped

area

of th

e w

orld =

1.4

97 b

illion h

a

•Ir

rigat

ed a

gricu

lture

pra

ctic

ed o

ver

272 m

illion h

a (1

8%

) co

ntrib

ute

s 40%

of to

tal pro

duct

ion a

nd

emplo

ys 30%

of popula

tion in a

gricu

lture

•Rai

nfe

dag

ricu

lture

pra

ctic

ed o

ver

1226 m

illion h

a (8

2%

) co

ntrib

ute

s 60%

of to

tal cr

op p

roduct

ion a

nd

emplo

ys 70%

of popula

tion in a

gricu

lture

Cl

Cl im

ate

imate

change

will im

pact

the

sourc

es o

f fo

od p

roduct

ion

change

will im

pact

the

sourc

es o

f fo

od p

roduct

ion

thro

ugh its

effec

ts o

n:

thro

ugh its

effec

ts o

n:

Vuln

erabilitie

sV

uln

erabilitie

s

•Food a

nd w

ate

r se

curi

ty

•In

com

es a

nd liv

elih

oods

•W

ate

r re

sourc

es

•Pro

duct

ivity

level

s

Impact

s on

Impact

s on F

resh

wate

rFre

shw

ate

rR

esourc

esR

esourc

es

By m

id-century, annual average river runoff and

water availability decrease by 10-30% over some

dry regions at mid-latitudes and in the dry

tropics, some of which are presently water-

stressed areas.

Drought-affected areas will

likely increase in extent.

Climate

Climate

Change Impacts on W

ater

Change Impacts on W

ater

Resources

Resourcesin

in Asia

Asia

•Glacier meltin the Himalayasprojectedto increaseflooding,

and rock avalanches from

destabilisedslopes, and to affect

water resourceswithinthe nexttwoto threedecades.

•This will

be

followed

by decreased

river flows

as the

glaciers recede.

•Freshwateravailability

in C

entral, South, East and S

outh-

East Asia, particularlyin large river basins, is

projectedto

decrease

which,

alongwith

population

growth

and

increasing

demand, could

adversely

affect more than

a

billion people by the 2050s.

•Coastal

areas,

especially

heavily-populated

megadelta

regions

in South, East and South-East Asia, will

be

at

greatestriskdue to increasedfloodingfrom

the seaand, in

somemegadeltas, floodingfromthe rivers.

Coastal Systems and Low

Coastal Systems and Low-- lying

lyingAreas

Areas

•Coasts are projected to be exposed to increasing risks,

including coastal erosion. The effect will be exacerbated by

increasing human-induced pressures on coastal areas.

•Coastal wetlands including salt m

arshes and m

angroves are

projected to be negatively affected by sea-level

rise

especially where they are constrained on their landward side,

or starved of sedim

ent.

•Many m

illions m

ore people are projected to be flooded every

year due to sea-level rise by the 2080s.

•Those densely-populated and low-lying areas where adaptive

capacity is relatively low, and which already face other

challenges such as tropical

storm

s or

local

coastal

subsidence, are especially at risk.

•The numbers affected w

ill be largest in the m

ega-deltas of

Asia and Africa while small islands are especially vulnerable.

Small

Small Islands

Islands

•Small islands, whetherlocatedin the tropicsor higherlatitudes,

have characteristicswhichmakethemespecially

vulnerable

to

clim

atechange, sea-levelriseand extremeevents.

•Deteriorationin coastalconditions, for examplethrougherosion

of beaches

and coralbleaching, expected

to affect local

resources, e.g. fisheries, and reduce

the value of these

destinations for tourism.

•Sea-levelriseexpectedto exacerbate

inundation, storm

surge,

erosion

and othercoastalhazards, thus

threatening

vital

infrastructure,

settlements

and facilities

that

support the

livelihoodof islandcommunities.

•Clim

ate

change projected

by mid-century

to reduce

water

resourcesin manysmallislands, e.g. in the Caribbeanand

Pacific, to the point where

theybecomeinsufficientto meet

demandduringlow-rainfallperiods.

Climate

Climate

Change Impacts on

Change Impacts on Crop

Cropproductivity

productivity

•At lower latitudes, especially seasonally dry and

tropical regions, crop productivity is projected to

decrease for even small local temperature increases

(1-2

°C), which would increase the risk of hunger.

•Increases in the frequency of droughts and floods

are projected to affect

local

crop production

negatively, especially in subsistence sectors at low

latitudes.

Climate

Climate

Change Impacts on

Change Impacts on Crop

CropProductivity

Productivity

and

and Sustainable

Sustainable

Development

Developmentin

in Asia

Asia

•Clim

ate

change projected

to impinge

on sustainable

development

of

most

developing

countries,

as it

compounds the pressures on naturalresourcesand the

environment

associated

with

rapid

urbanisation,

industrialisation, and economicdevelopment.

•Cropyieldscould

increaseup to 20% in East and South-

East Asiawhile

theycoulddecreaseup to 30% in Central

and South Asiaby the m

id-21st century.

•Takentogether, and consideringthe influence of rapid

population growth

and urbanisation, the riskof hungeris

projected

to remain

very

high

in severaldeveloping

countries.

Rice yield variations with

Rice yield variations with

temperature and CO

temperature and CO

22

Temperature, °C

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

Rice yield, t ha-1

02468

10

12

330 ppm

660 ppm

Bak

er a

nd A

llen

, 1993

Pro

jected

Climate

Change Im

pacts on C

rop

Productivityin India

Tem

p

+2.5

oto

4.9

o C

Ric

e yie

ld -15%

to

-42%

Whea

t yie

ld -25%

to

-55%

(without ca

rbon fer

tiliza

tion e

ffec

t)

With fer

tiliza

tion -

smal

ler but si

milar

im

pac

t

Parikh

and K

avi

Kumar

Climate

Climate

Change Impacts on Society

Change Impacts on Society

•Poor

communities can be especially vulnerable,

in

particular those concentrated in high-risk areas. They

tend to have more lim

ited adaptive capacities, and are

more dependent on clim

ate-sensitive resources such as

local water and food supplies

•Where

extreme

weatherevents

become

more intense

and/or more frequent, the economic

and social costs

of

thoseevents

will

increase, and theseincreaseswill

be

substantialin the areas m

ostdirectlyaffected.

•Clim

ate

change impacts spreadfrom

directlyimpacted

areas and sectors

to otherareas and sectors

through

extensive and complexlinkages.

Adaptive

Adaptive Responses

Responses

The array

of potentialadaptive responses

available

to human

societies

isvery

large,

ranging

from

purely

technological(e.g. sea

defences), throughbehavioural(e.g. altered

foodand recreationalchoices), to m

anagerial

(e.g. altered

farm

practices) and to policy

(e.g. planning regulations).

Agro

met

eoro

logic

alStr

ate

gie

s to

enhance

food sec

uri

ty

•Assess Past Impacts

•Develop good Monitoring

•Improve Forecasts/Scenarios

•Explore/Propose Responses

Tra

nslating C

lim

ate

Info

rmation into

Food

Sec

uri

ty Info

rmation

Develop

regional

food

security

outlooks based on clim

ate forecast-

derived projections of

crop yields,

livestock condition and other

food

security-related variables,

and use

them as input into a livelihoods-based

food security analysis

Nee

dN

eed

to

to s

trik

est

rike

a b

ala

nce

a b

ala

nce

bet

wee

nbet

wee

n

Tec

hnic

al

Tec

hnic

aland S

truct

ura

l so

lutions

and S

truct

ura

l so

lutions

and

and

Soci

al and

Soci

al and I

nst

itutional

Inst

itutional

Const

rain

tsC

onst

rain

ts

Socio-Economic

Scenarios

Climate Change

& Variability

Water

Food security

Agriculture

Livelihood

Livelihood

Health

Coastal Zones

Livelihood

Infrastructure

Forests

Livelihood

Natural

Ecosystems

Water &

Climate

Balancing Solutions and Constraints through

Integrated Assessments

Clim

ate

Clim

ate

Change

and F

ood S

ecuri

ty

Change

and F

ood S

ecuri

ty ––

Agro

met

eoro

logic

al

Agro

met

eoro

logic

alres

earc

hres

earc

hN

eeds

Nee

ds

•Im

proved and reliable regional clim

ate models and

clim

ate projections for impact assessment

•Im

proved clim

ate change impact or response m

odels -

Sectoral, Regional, & Integrated

•Assessment

of

impacts at

regional

level

and

identification of vulnerable regions, socio-economic

systems

•Risk-assessment

framework for

analyzing critical

thresholds of clim

ate impact and adaptation strategies

for coping with changed clim

ate conditions in the

agricultural sector

Thank you very m

uch for

Thank you very m

uch for

your

your attention

attention

WO

RLD

METEO

RO

LO

GIC

AL O

RG

AN

IZA

TIO

N