Climatological Research Collaborations Between NWS Tallahassee

and the Florida State University

Tim Barry and Irv WatsonNational Weather Service

Tallahassee, Florida

Florida as well as other Gulf Coast Locations Unique Summertime Sea BreezePatterns of convection depend on

moisture and low-level flowUse of Lightning, Radar, and Precipitation

Climatologies in GFE

Lightning distributions over the Florida peninsulaLightning distributions over the Florida peninsulaTodd P. Lericos (SCEP), Henry E. Fuelberg, and A. I. WatsonTodd P. Lericos (SCEP), Henry E. Fuelberg, and A. I. Watson

Weather & Forecasting, 2002.Weather & Forecasting, 2002.

All Flows Combined

850 mb Mean Height Field

Lightning Flash Density

.02 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 >2.4Flashes per km2 per regime day

May through September during 1989-1998

10 years of Lightning Data

24-hr loopAll Flows/All Regimes

Incorporating Mesoscale Lightning Climatologies in the NWS IFPS/GFE Forecast Routine

along the Gulf Coast Jessica R. Stroupe (SCEP), Henry E. Fuelberg, Andrew I. Watson

Michael C. Koziara, and Stephen K. Rinard

14 years of Lightning Data

24-hr loopAll Flows/All Regimes

F igure 1. NW S Ta llahassee County W arning Area (outlined in red) and d ivis ions for the four principa l flow d irections (E , S , S W, NW ). Each direction is d ivided in to moderate and strong flow. A calm flow regim e is a lso included for a total n ine flow reg im es.

G u lf o f M ex ico

A la b am a

Ta llah a sseeF lor id a

0 100 km

G eo rg ia

SS W

N WE a st

020°

135°215°

290°

Patterns of convection depend onmoisture and low-level flow

Calm Wind RegimeHourly Animation

Figure 6. By means of a procedure in the Edit Actions Dialog Box, lightning data are converted into a QPF forecast.

Spatial Editor

Grid Manager

Use of Lightning Climatologies in GFE

Radar ClimatologiesHigh resolution historical database of gage/radar precipitation for the state of Florida and southern GeorgiaParticipants: The Florida Department of Environmental Protection (FDEP); Prof. Henry Fuelberg (FSU Department of Meteorology); WFO Tallahassee, Southeast River Forecast Center (SERFC),  NWS Hydrology Laboratory; and U.S. Geological Survey - FL. Currently 4 years of WSR-88D data for SE U.S.

Greg Quina and Bryan Mroczka

Mobile, AL

Jacksonville

Miami, FL

April-September

Winter Composites are also completed!

Precipitation Climatologies

COMET Partners ProjectTo develop 3-, 6-, 12-, and 24-hr Precipitation FrequenciesUsing Hourly Precipitation Data (HPD)For all NWS Southern RegionFor approximately 30 years

Matthew Sitkowski (NHC SCEP) Undergraduate AssistantDr. Henry E. Fuelberg Florida State University

January 0700-0900 UTC

24-hr

January 0700-0900 UTC

12-hr – 0100-1200 UTC

January 0700-0900 UTC

12-hr – 1300-2400 UTC

July 1900-2100 UTC

6-hr – 1900-2400 UTC

July 1900-2100 UTC

3-hr - July

Coastal Waters Temperatures

• Air temperatures over water – new weather element

• Forecasters were not familiar with this

• Training had to be done to introduce forecasters

• Start with climatologiesData readily available from NDBC Data goes back many years at some buoys

Coastal Waters Temperatures

Buoy 42039

Ongoing Studies• The Tallahassee Area Minimum Temperature Study

Understand temperature variability across TallahasseeWill collect data through this SpringWill include a Winter Frontal Passage Study

• Fog Study

Fog Climatology for KTLH completed by Mark Jarvis (WFO Louisville)Current work includes assessment of UPS Fog StudyRoad weather study includes instrumented communicationtowers along I-10. One tower (Quincy) has a visibility sensor

Other Collaborations• NWS Class taught each Spring Semester

21 students in class

• Student Career Experience Program (SCEP)Work-Study Program3 SCEPs currently working in WFO

• Internship Class – One student per semester

• Volunteer Program – Two volunteers

New Studies with Florida State University• COAPS – Relationship between CG lightning across the U.S.

during El Nino, La Nina, and Neutral Phases using15 years of NLDN data

• The development of forecast confidence measures using NCEP ensembles and their real-time implementation within NWS graphical forecasts – COMET Cooperative Proposal by Dr. Robert Hart