cmcc – centro euro-mediterraneo per i cambiamenti climatici ii convegno nazionale di oceanografia...

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II Convegno nazionale di II Convegno nazionale di Oceanografia OperativaOceanografia Operativa

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Il Progetto ADRICOSM-STAR per gli impatti climatici

Antonio Guarnieri

In collaborazione con i partners di progetto

Ministry for the Environment, Land, and Sea

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II Convegno Nazionale di II Convegno Nazionale di Oceanorafia OperativaOceanorafia Operativa

• At the World Summit on Sustainable Development of Johannesburg in September 2002, ADRICOSM was accepted as a Partnership in the cluster of oceans/coasts/fisheries.

• The Italian Ministry of Environment and Territory started an ADRICOSM Pilot Project in October 2001 to develop the monitoring and modelling of the Adriatic currents and ecosystem in order to detect changes and mitigate impacts

• Other Projects will start in 2004 that will continue the ADRICOSM developments

• The last of these projects is ADRICOSM-STAR: ADRICOSM INTEGRATED RIVER BASIN AND COASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENT SYSTEM: MONTENEGRO COASTAL AREA AND BOJANA RIVER CATCHMENT (funded by the Italian Ministry for Environment Land and Sea). Dec 2006 – Jun 2010

Genesis of ADRICOSM

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The Project’s PartnersCMCC (Coordinator)

INGV (Bologna) CIRSA (Bologna)

SGI (Padova) UNITUS (La Tuscia)

CNR-ISAC (Roma) OGS (Trieste)

CNR-ISMAR-BOLOGNA CETI (Podgorica)

CNR-ISMAR-ANCONA IMB (Kotor)

ENEA (La Spezia) HIM (Podgorica)

ISPRA (Roma) IEWE (Tirana)

CLU (Bologna) UB (Serbia)

ERNST & YOUNG (Milano) SEWA (Serbia)

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MODULE WORKPACKAGE NAME RESPONSIBLE PARTNER

DESCRIPTIVE/

WP1- Assessment of environmental quality in the area of interest CETI

OBSERVATIONAL MODULE

WP2- Data collection program for model calibration/validation and monitoring upgrades

IMB

WP3- Design and implementation of in situ and satellite monitoring system HI-M

MODELING/

WP4- Calibration/validation of hydrological, river basin and oceanographic numerical models

INGV

PREDICTIVE MODULE WP5- Integrated modeling of hydrology, river basin and coastal circulation SGI

WP6- Scenario experiments for long term planning CMCC

INFORMATION SYSTEM MODULE

WP7- Information Management System for the ADRICOSM-STAR data

ENEA

The project working structure

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The areas of interest

Ulcinj

Boka Kotorska Bay

Bojana River and Skadar Lake Catchment

Coastal Strip

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• Continue and further develop the ADRICOSM forecasting system for the Adriatic Sea and its coastal areas with particular emphasis to the Montenegro coastal area.

• Develop high resolution hydro-meteorological modelling for the large Montenegro area;

• Design and partially implement a monitoring system for the surface water cycle and the water quality in the river and coastal area of Montenegro

• Develop and validate modelling tools for the urban, surface, underground water and coastal currents in the Bojana river catchment and Montenegro coastal area

• Produce downscaled IPCC climate change scenario projections to study impact on the water cycle and on the sediment transport in the Bojana river and the Montenegro coastal area

Project main objectives

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ADRICOSM-STAR water integrated monitoring and modelling approach

MultidisciplinaryMulti-platformObserving system(satellites, atmospheric and oceanographic stations, river, urban and underground water monitoring)

Numerical models of the atmosphere,

marine and river hydrodynamcs,

underground waterscoupled to water

quality and sediment transport

Climate change scenario simulations

coupled to regional/local

models

input data to environmental managers and policy makers for EMERGENCY management and the PROTECTION of

surface, underground, marine and urban waters

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The main monitoring results

•1 Water quality station in Bokakotorska Bay•1 Water quality station along the Bojana River•1 Hydrological station (Fraskanjel, with level and flow of the Bojana River)•1 Hydrological and mareographic station (Bar)•3 Meteorological stations (Bar, Herceg Novi, Ulcinj)

Main procurement and new installations

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The main monitoring resultsIn situ and remote activities• Consolidation of operational satellite monitoring and new operational

• Consolidation of VOS marine parameters and new meteorologiacal monitoring

TSM CDOM K490 Chl-a

Jan 2009, Bari-Durres Temperature

WIND WIND

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The main monitoring resultsIn situ activities

• New mesoscale and seasonal cruises have been carried on along the coast of Montenegro

Seasonal Surface Temperature

NOV JAN MAY JUN

• HR bathymetric and seismological campaigns carried out in the Bokakotorska bay and along the coastal area

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Models integration

EBU-POM

MIKE11

AREG

SWAN

Flow at SK Lake

SSH at Bojana

HYPROM

Bojana Flow & sediment transport

T2m,U10m,V10m,CC,Pr,RelHum

ATMOSPHERE

RIVER HYDRAULICS HYDROLOGY

OCEANGRAPHY

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Atmosphere: scenarios comparison

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Hydro-metereology: validation

Dominio NMM a 12 km

Ulcinj

Ulcinj stationCumulated precipitationYear 2003

Podgorica stationFlow,Year 2003

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Hydro-metereology: future scenarios

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Upstream boundary Upstream boundary conditions:conditions: HYPROM modelled water flow HYPROM modelled water flow time series from Skadar Lake time series from Skadar Lake and Drin River HPP dams flowand Drin River HPP dams flow

Downstream boundary Downstream boundary condition:condition:2003 tide levels from 2003 tide levels from oceanographic modeloceanographic model

Flow from Skadar Lake

Flow from Drin River

Downstream boundary

Fluvial hydraulics: Buna/Bojana river model

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Fluvial hydraulics:Present and future scenario

Observed Yearly Mean= 646.78 mc/s (years1965-1985)

Simulated Yearly Mean= 482.30 mc/s

OBS climatology (1965-1985) Simulated Mike11

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II Convegno nazionale di II Convegno nazionale di Oceanografia OperativaOceanografia Operativa

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Bed level Bojana - right branch (start 2020 - end 2030)

-5.0

-4.5

-4.0

-3.5

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

150 550 950 1350 1750 2150 2550 2950

Distance (m)

Be

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start 2020 end 2030

Bed level Bojana - left branch (start 2020 - end 2030)

-7.0

-6.5

-6.0

-5.5

-5.0

-4.5

-4.0

-3.5

-3.0

0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200

Distance (m)

Be

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m a

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start 2020 end 2030

Fluvial hydraulics: future scenario

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Oceanography: comparison of scenariosWINTER TEMPERATURE AND CURRENTS (2m)

SUMMER TEMPERATURE AND CURRENTS (2m)

Present (2003-2008)

Future (2025-2030)

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Oceanography: time evolution of basin mean surface temperature and salinity

ECMWF

EBU

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Wave model: climate scenario results

Number of sea storms in 1 year - 5 years average

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2001-2005 2006-2010 2010-2015 2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030

Period

Eve

nts

Sea storms persistance - 5 years average

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2001-2005 2006-2010 2010-2015 2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030

Period

Ho

urs

Standard Deviation of the sea storm persistance - 5 years average

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2001-2005 2006-2010 2010-2015 2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030

Period

Ho

urs

Significant wave height of the sea storm peak - 5 years average

1.25

1.3

1.35

1.4

1.45

1.5

1.55

2001-2005 2006-2010 2010-2015 2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030

Period

Sig

nif

ican

t w

ave h

eig

ht

(m)

Number of sea storms in 1 year - 5 year average

Sea storms duration – 5 year average

Standard deviation of the sea storms duration – 5 year average

Significant wave hight of the sea storm peak – 5 year average

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ADRICOSM-STAR at work: the January 2010 flood event

• Extreme rain falls from December last year until January 10th 2010, caused serious material damage. Great number of houses in the surrounding area of the Skadar Lake, the municipality of Ulcinj, have been flooded. Some 1100 persons or 245 households had to be evacuated

Buna-Drin junction, Flood of January 2010

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Buna/Bojana River Water Level (cm) at Fraskanjel

Main Flood Event

ADRICOSM-STAR at work: Water level from Fraskanjel station and from the circulation

model

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CONCLUSIONS• Adricosm-Star project has succesfully buit up a multidisciplinary monitoring/modeling integrated platform in the area of Montenegro

• Climate change impact studies on the water resource have been carried on for the first time at a local regional scale in the Adriatic/Montenegrin area

• This integration constitutes the foundations for the development of a Decision Support System (DSS) for:

• water level extremes early warning

• climate change water resources scenarios in the 2020-2030

cmcc – centro euro-mediterraneo per i cambiamenti climatici ii convegno nazionale di oceanografia...

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