cmi.comesa.int€¦ · web viewcommon market for eastern and southern africa ten th meeting of the...

27
Distr. LIMITED CS/CMI/FSDSSC/X September, 2015 Original: ENGLISH COMMON MARKET FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AFRICA Tenth Meeting of the Financial System Development and Stability Sub-Committee 5 th September, 2015 Nairobi, Kenya REPORT OF THE TENTH MEETING OF THE COMESA FINANCIAL SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT AND STABILITY SUB-COMMITTEE

Upload: others

Post on 02-Aug-2020

0 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: cmi.comesa.int€¦ · Web viewCOMMON MARKET FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AFRICA Ten th Meeting of the Financial System Development and Stability Sub-Committee 5 th September, 2015 Nairobi,

Distr.LIMITED

CS/CMI/FSDSSC/XSeptember, 2015

Original: ENGLISH

COMMON MARKET FOR EASTERNAND SOUTHERN AFRICA

Tenth Meeting of the Financial System Development and Stability Sub-Committee

5th September, 2015Nairobi, Kenya

REPORT OF THE TENTH MEETING OF THE COMESA FINANCIAL SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT

AND STABILITY SUB-COMMITTEE

2015 (IZ/LK/mkc/joo)

Page 2: cmi.comesa.int€¦ · Web viewCOMMON MARKET FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AFRICA Ten th Meeting of the Financial System Development and Stability Sub-Committee 5 th September, 2015 Nairobi,

CS/CMI/FSDSSC/XPage 1

A. INTRODUCTION

1. The 20th Meeting of the COMESA Committee of Governors of Central Banks which was held in November 2014 in Kinshasa, Congo(DR) instructed the COMESA Monetary Institute to undertake the following activities in 2015:

a) Preparation of a Guideline for appropriate institutional governance framework for implementation of macro prudential policy in COMESA region

b) Conduct training on the following:

i) Modelling Volatility in Financial Markets Within a Multivariate Framework;ii) Financial Stability, Systemic Risk and Macroprudential Policy;

2. Based on the above decisions, the Institute organized

a) Training on:

i) Modelling Volatility in Financial Markets Within a Multivariate Framework from 27th July to 07th August, 2015 in Nairobi, Kenya; and

ii) Financial Stability, Systemic Risk and Macroprudential Policy from 24th August to 1st September 2015, Nairobi, Kenya

b) A Validation Workshop of the Guidelines for Institutional Framework for Implementation of Macroprudential Policy from 2nd to 4th September 2015, in Nairobi, Kenya.

B. ATTENDANCE, OPENING OF THE MEETING, ELECTION OF THE BUREAU, ADOPTION OF THE AGENDA AND ORGANISATION OF WORK

Attendance

3. The meeting was attended by delegates from Central Banks of Egypt, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Rwanda, Sudan, Swaziland, Uganda, and Zimbabwe. COMESA Monetary Institute also attended the meeting.

Opening of the Meeting (Agenda item 1)

4. The Chairman welcomed the delegates and called the meeting to order.

Election of the Bureau (Agenda item 2)

9. The following Central Banks were elected as Bureau members:

Chairperson: Kenya Rapporteur: Egypt

Page 3: cmi.comesa.int€¦ · Web viewCOMMON MARKET FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AFRICA Ten th Meeting of the Financial System Development and Stability Sub-Committee 5 th September, 2015 Nairobi,

CS/CMI/FSDSSC/XPage 2

Adoption of the Agenda and Organisation of Work (Agenda item 3)

5. The meeting adopted the following agenda:

1. Opening of meeting;

2. Election of a Bureau;

3. Adoption of the Agenda and Organization of Work;

4. Status of Implementations of the Recommendations of the 9th Meeting of the Financial System Development and Stability Sub-Committee;

5. Consideration of the following Reports on:

(i) Status of Implementation of the Recommendation of the 9th Meeting of the Financial System Development and Stability

(ii) Status of Implementation of the COMESA Assessment Framework for Financial System Stability by member countries

(iii) Training on Modelling and Forecasting Volatility in Financial Market within a Multivariate Framework;

(iv) Training on Financial Stability, Systemic Risk and Macroprudential Policy, and

(v) Validation workshop on Guidelines for Institutional Framework for Implementation of Macroprudential Policy in the COMESA Region

6. Work Plan for the COMESA Financial System Development and Stability Sub-Committee for the year 2016;

7. Any other Business

8. Closure of the Meeting

C. ACCOUNT OF PROCEEDINGS

Report on Status of Implementation of the Recommendation of the 9 th Meeting of the Financial System Development and Stability. (Agenda item 5(i)) 6. The Director of the COMESA Monetary Institute presented a report under this agenda item. He informed the meeting that all the recommendations of the Sub-Committee were endorsed by the 20th meeting of the COMESA Committee of Governors of Central Banks which was held in Kinshasa, DR Congo in November 2014. The status of implementation of the decisions of the Governors as related to the activities of the Sub-Committee in 2014 are contained in the table below:

Page 4: cmi.comesa.int€¦ · Web viewCOMMON MARKET FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AFRICA Ten th Meeting of the Financial System Development and Stability Sub-Committee 5 th September, 2015 Nairobi,

CS/CMI/FSDSSC/XPage 3

TABLE 1: STATUS OF IMPLEMENTATIONS OF THE DECISIONS MADE BY THE 20TH

MEETING OF THE COMESA COMMITTEE OF GOVERNORS OF CENTRAL BANKS AS RELATED TO THE RECOMMENDED ACTIVITIES BY THE 9TH MEETING OF THE

FINANCIAL SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT AND STABILITY SUB-COMMITTEE IN 2014

Decision By Whom By When Status

Governors approved the Action Plan contained in the Sub-Committee Report for enhancing the implementation of the activities related with the assessment of financial stability

Member countries

June 2015 The status of implementation by member countries is contained in Table 2 below.

Governors approved the following Work Plan of the Financial System Development and Stability Sub-Committee for 2014

i) Preparation of a Guideline for Appropriate Institutional Governance Framework for Implementation of Macro-prudential Policies in the COMESA Region

ii) Training on Financial stability, Systemic Risk Assessment and Macro-prudential policy

iii) Modelling and Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets in Multivariate Framework;

CMI June 2015

1. The finalisation of the Guideline for Institutional Framework for Implementing Macroprudential is work in progress.

2. All trainings were undertaken;

CMI through the COMESA Statistics Unit should spearhead the consolidation of regional macroprudential statistics that are accessible to member countries

CMI and COMESA secretariat

Work in progress

The consultant who prepared the Manual for SHIELDS rating to Submit the final version of the Manual on 28th February 2015

The consultant did not finalise the Manual and all recommended activities related with SHIELDS rating were not carried out.

Discussions

7. In the discussions that followed, the meeting agreed that data requirement for the SHIELDS rating cannot be fulfilled by COMESA member countries. The meeting

Page 5: cmi.comesa.int€¦ · Web viewCOMMON MARKET FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AFRICA Ten th Meeting of the Financial System Development and Stability Sub-Committee 5 th September, 2015 Nairobi,

CS/CMI/FSDSSC/XPage 4

underscored the importance of harmonization of methodologies for assessment of financial system stability in all member countries. The meeting therefore agreed that this can be achieved by adopting simpler tools such as Financial Stability Index and the Cobweb Diagram which are recommended by Basel III.

Recommendation

8. The meeting recommended the following:

1. SHIELDS Rating for assessment of financial system stability be replaced by construction of Financial Stability Index and Cobweb Diagram;

2. CMI should prepare Guidelines for construction of Financial Stability Index and Cobweb Diagram; and

3. CMI should set up a web platform where member countries’ central banks can actively share and exchange ideas on issues related with assessment of financial stability.

Report by Member Countries on Implementation of the COMESA Assessment Framework for Financial System Stability (Agenda item 5(ii))

9. Delegates from member countries reported on the status of implementations of the COMESA Assessment Framework for Financial System Stability as contained below in table 2. The report focused on the following:

(i) Establishment of Financial Stability Unit;(ii) Establishment of Multi-disciplinary Financial Stability Committees;(iii) Development of action plan for implementation of COMESA Framework for

Financial Stability Assessment covering:

(a) Forward looking Financial Stability Reports;(b) Status of implementation on macro-prudential policies;

(iv) Report on Compliance to the revised Basel Core Principles on Effective Banking Supervision; and

(v) Electronic submission of Financial Stability Reports and Financial Soundness Indicators for banking sector to the COMESA Monetary Institute (CMI).

10. The workshop noted the following from member countries reports:

(i) Most COMESA member states have set up Financial Stability Units; (ii) The member states are at various stages of setting up the Financial Stability

Committees; (iii) Implementation of Forward looking Financial Stability Reports was still work in

progress for most Member countries; and (iv) Member states are at different levels of compliance to the revised Basel Core

Principles on Effective Banking Supervision.

Page 6: cmi.comesa.int€¦ · Web viewCOMMON MARKET FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AFRICA Ten th Meeting of the Financial System Development and Stability Sub-Committee 5 th September, 2015 Nairobi,

CS/CMI/FSDSSC/XPage 5

Table 2: Status of Implementation of the COMESA Financial Stability Assessment Framework by 8 Member States

No. Task Activity Completion

Date

Status of Implementation

ImplementedWork In

Progress

1 Financial Stability Unit

Establish a Financial Stability Unit June 2015

Egypt, Kenya, Sudan,

Madagascar, Malawi,

Swaziland Uganda,

Zimbabwe

2Financial Stability Committee

Establish a multi-disciplinary Financial Stability Committee

June 2015

Egypt, Kenya, Malawi,

Swaziland Uganda,

Madagascar, Sudan,

Zimbabwe

3

Develop action plan for implementation of COMESA Framework for Financial Stability Assessment

Prepare Forward looking Financial Stability Reports

30 June 2015

Egypt, Kenya, Malawi,

Swaziland, Uganda,

Madagascar, Sudan,

Zimbabwe

Implementation of macro-prudential policies1

30 June 2015

Kenya, Egypt Malawi,

Swaziland, Uganda,

Madagascar, Sudan,

Zimbabwe

4

Report on Compliance to the revised Basel Core Principles on Effective Banking Supervision

Extent of Compliance to the revised Basel Core Principles on Effective Banking Supervision2 30 June 2015

Egypt, Kenya, Malawi,

Swaziland, Uganda,

Madagascar, Sudan,

Zimbabwe

1 This requires clarity in overall/final objective/mandate of macroprudential policy, identification of key risks/triggers, Mapping, monitoring indicators and stress testing and having a robust Policy toolkit/instruments including counter cyclical buffers.2 Member countries will provide extent of compliance, none compliance or none applicability of the revised core principles before the next sub-committee meeting.

Page 7: cmi.comesa.int€¦ · Web viewCOMMON MARKET FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AFRICA Ten th Meeting of the Financial System Development and Stability Sub-Committee 5 th September, 2015 Nairobi,

CS/CMI/FSDSSC/XPage 6

5

Financial Stability Reports.

Electronic Submission of Financial Stability Reports to COMESA Monetary Institute (CMI).

30 June 2015

Malawi, Madagascar,

Uganda

Swaziland, Sudan, Egypt

Kenya, Zimbabwe

6Financial Soundness Indicators

Electronic submission of Financial Soundness Indicators (FSIs) to COMESA Monetary Institute (CMI).

30 June 2015

Egypt, Swaziland,

Sudan, Uganda

Malawi, Kenya,

Madagascar, Zimbabwe

Discussions

11. In the discussions that followed, the following were observed:

(i) Future reports should assess compliance to the revised Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision clearly stipulating extent of compliance, non compliance or none applicability; and

(ii) The meeting noted the significant improvement of country reports with enough details that enabled member countries to learn from one another.

Recommendation

12. The meeting recommended the following:

(i) Future reports should provide details on compliance to the revised Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision clearly stipulating extent of compliance, non compliance or none applicability.

(ii) Member Central Banks submit Financial Soundness Indicators to CMI by 30th June every year to enable CMI post in its website.

(iii) Starting from 2016, each member country’s report will include detailed analysis of Financial Soundness Indicators.

Training on Modelling and Forecasting Volatility in Financial Market within a Multivariate Framework (Agenda item 5(iii))

13. The meeting noted that the training was designed to address salient features of financial markets volatility especially in less developed countries, where the financial markets are less developed and the cost of adjusting to changes in the economic environment is higher. The meeting was informed that volatility in financial markets generates uncertainty which increases the associated level of risk and could therefore, have a major impact on financial stability and economic growth. As a result, it is a major concern in risk management and monetary policy making, among others. In view of the above, the overall objective of the training was to enable participants acquire appropriate analytical skills and rigour in modelling and forecasting volatility in financial markets. This is expected to contribute to minimization of the adverse effects of uncertainty in financial markets on macroeconomic management in particular and economic development in general.

Page 8: cmi.comesa.int€¦ · Web viewCOMMON MARKET FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AFRICA Ten th Meeting of the Financial System Development and Stability Sub-Committee 5 th September, 2015 Nairobi,

CS/CMI/FSDSSC/XPage 7

14. The meeting also noted that presentations were made on the following:

(i) Introduction to Financial market volatility and to modelling financial market volatility

(ii) Modelling Conditional Volatility: the ARCH, GARCH, ARCH-M, GARCH-M and IGARCH Models, and models of Asymmetry (the TGARCH, EGARCH, PARCH and CGARCH models), and departure from Gaussianity, and stochastic volatility

(iii) Estimation of the ARCH and GARCH effects, and related models, using both the popular ordinary least squares (OLS) and Maximum Likelihood techniques.

(iv) Modelling multivariate GARCH(v) Forecasting conditional volatility (in theory and practice) and forecast

performance evaluation.,(vi) Group exercises and presentations.

15. The meeting was informed that the presentations were supported by illustrations using relevant case studies. Hands on training using EVIEWS-8 as well as supervised group exercises using country specific financial data were also carried out.

16. The meeting was also informed that each group made presentations on the outcomes of group exercises. This clearly demonstrated that the training had equipped the participants with the necessary analytical skills and rigour in dealing with volatility in financial markets.

17. The meeting noted that the participants proposed a training to be held in 2016 on Modelling volatility in financial market with particular emphasis on forecasting and multivariate framework.

Recommendation

18. The meeting recommended that CMI organize training in 2016 on:

(i) Modelling volatility in financial market with particular emphasis on forecasting and multivariate framework; and

(ii) Econometrics and statistical techniques for Banks’ supervisors and Financial Stability Practitioners.

Training on Financial Stability, Systemic Risk and Macroprudential Policy (Agenda item 5(iv))

19. The meeting was informed that the main objective of the training was to equip the participants with appropriate analytical skills and rigour on macroprudential tools relevant to COMESA member countries.

20. The meeting noted the following salient points of the presentations under three themes namely, Assessment of Financial Stability, Systemic Risk Assessment and Macroprudential Policy.

Page 9: cmi.comesa.int€¦ · Web viewCOMMON MARKET FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AFRICA Ten th Meeting of the Financial System Development and Stability Sub-Committee 5 th September, 2015 Nairobi,

CS/CMI/FSDSSC/XPage 8

(a) Assessment of Financial stability

21. The meeting noted that the topics covered in this session included among others, monitoring financial stability in developing economies, the design of Financial Stability Reports, communication strategy and banking theory on crisis management and resolution.

22. The key lessons learnt in this session were the following:

(i) The importance of having Forward Looking Financial Stability Reports including; identification and quantification of (systemic) risks, and the ability to motivate action to prevent or mitigate systemic risks.

(ii) How to design crisis management and resolution plan. Participants were provided with hands on training on crisis resolution.

Recommendation

23. The meeting recommended the following:

(i) Member States Central Banks should attempt to move towards the standardisation of Financial Stability Reports. The proposed new risk focused and forward looking financial stability report may be organised as per the following suggested outline:

Chapter 1: Overview and Executive Summary

Chapter 2: Economic and Financial Conditions: (Domestic and External) vulnerabilities to the outlook;

Chapter 3: Main Risk Scenarios (e.g. Stability implications of external demand shocks or liquidity problems on the

banking system); future prospects, risks and stress tests.

Chapter 4: Conclusions and Policy recommendations: This should be recommendations for preventing systemic problems or dealing with them if prevention fails. This section may also review developments in macroprudential policy since the preceding report.

Appendix I: Special Topic: This should delve more deeply but concisely into important existing vulnerabilities and sources of risks or policy challenges.

Appendix II: Statistical Tables: Financial Soundness Indicators and consolidated balance sheet of the banking sector.

(ii) Member Central Banks need for an institutional framework to translate financial stability analysis to policy making.

(iii) Member Central Banks need to address data gaps for effective analysis and identification of Domestic Systemically Important Banks (DSIB’s) done at least once a year.

Page 10: cmi.comesa.int€¦ · Web viewCOMMON MARKET FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AFRICA Ten th Meeting of the Financial System Development and Stability Sub-Committee 5 th September, 2015 Nairobi,

CS/CMI/FSDSSC/XPage 9

(b) Systemic risk assessment

24. The meeting noted that the topics covered in this session included systemic risk monitoring and assessment; interconnectedness and contagion in the financial system. In addition, the stress testing of the financial system was also discussed. Practical exercises on liquidity and cash flow based stress testing were conducted. Theoretical aspects of financial risk cycles and financial stability; and approaches to mitigating systemic risk were discussed. The training also discussed identification and monitoring Systemically Important Financial Institutions. This also included practical exercises on identification of Domestic Systemically Important Banks (DSIB’s). Further discussion centred on interconnectedness and contagion in the financial system. Hand on training on assessing the impact of contagion in the financial system was also conducted. Further capacity building work involved training on tools for systemic risk assessment. Hands on exercises on developing a cobweb model and financial stability indices were conducted.

25. The lessons learnt under this topic are;

(i) Importance of cross-border cooperation and coordination in assessing systemic risk.

(ii) Identification of DSIB’s is vital(iii) The importance of making use of tools that address emerging risks in the

country(iv) The need for a framework to conduct assessments and update them on a

regular basis(v) Need to develop a flexible policy response to mitigate emerging

macroprudential risks

Recommendation

26. The meeting recommended the following:

(i) Member countries should undertake work to determine their Domestic Systemically Important Banks (DSIB’s) and design appropriate policies to manage risks that could be posed by these institutions.

(ii) Cross-border cooperation and coordination in assessing systemic risks is important.

(c) Macroprudential policy

27. The meeting noted that this session discussed in details macroprudential policy including aspects of implications of macroprudential policy and procyclicality with particular reference to developing countries. Participants learnt key issues in macroprudential surveillance as well as the different macroprudential measures that are being employed. The theoretical aspects of macroprudential analysis and practical challenges were also investigated.

28. The meeting noted that the following key issues were identified during the training under macroprudential policy:

Page 11: cmi.comesa.int€¦ · Web viewCOMMON MARKET FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AFRICA Ten th Meeting of the Financial System Development and Stability Sub-Committee 5 th September, 2015 Nairobi,

CS/CMI/FSDSSC/XPage 10

(i) Macroprudential oversight is meant to complement rather than replace microprudential supervision.

(ii) Macroprudential oversight encompasses an analytical component aimed at the timely detection of systemic risk.

(iii) Macroprudential oversight also includes a policy component aimed at the timely mitigation of systemic risk through financial regulation and/or ad hoc policy measures.

(iv) Institutional arrangements should be put in place to specify responsibilities, powers and interagency coordination.

(v) There is need to build robust analytical underpinnings for macroprudential policymaking because effective mitigation of systemic risk requires policymakers to monitor, measure and evaluate systemic risk.

(vi) An operational framework is essential to implementing macroprudential policy.

(vii) The framework should merge all the key aspects of the financial system, including banking institutions, the insurance and pension sectors, financial markets and payment systems.

Recommendation

29. The meeting recommended the following:

(i) There is need for more cross border information sharing and cooperation especially among COMESA member states;

(ii) Member countries need to have Institutional arrangements which specify responsibilities, powers and interagency coordination to undertake macroprudential surveillance;

(iii) Member states should start compiling necessary data that is needed for macroprudential analysis;

(iv) The Institutional arrangement should merge all the key aspects of the financial system, including banking institutions, the insurance and pension sectors, financial markets and payment systems

(v) CMI to organize trainings in 2016 on:

(a) Basel III and Macroprudential Surveillance; and (b) Application of stress testing in the financial system;

(vi) CMI in collaboration with member countries to conduct a study to benchmark and provide guidelines for the design of Forward-Looking Financial Stability Reports

Validation workshop on Guidelines for Institutional Framework for Implementation of Macroprudential Policy in the COMESA Region (Agenda item 5(v))

30. The meeting noted the following key highlights of the Guidelines:

(i) Three key pillars of a Macroprudential Policy Framework are:

Page 12: cmi.comesa.int€¦ · Web viewCOMMON MARKET FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AFRICA Ten th Meeting of the Financial System Development and Stability Sub-Committee 5 th September, 2015 Nairobi,

CS/CMI/FSDSSC/XPage 11

(a) An analytical framework aimed at identification and monitoring of systemic risk.

(b) An institutional framework aimed at ensuring a decisive and timely policy response for if and when intervention is needed. Important issues to be considered and made clear within the framework include designation of mandates and powers, issues of accountability, coordination mechanisms and decision-making processes.

(c) Once both the analytical framework and institutional framework are put into place, a set of policy measures aimed at mitigating the build-up of systemic risk can then be implemented.

(ii) Three main categories of Institutional Models for implementation of

Macroprudential policy are:

(a) Full integration model where all financial regulatory and supervisory functions rest with the central bank. By having full integration of macroprudential policy under one roof, the management provides incentives for proactive delivery of information to the Board. However, full integration hands a lot of power to the central bank, which is already responsible for monetary policy.

(b) Partial integration model involves close integration between the central bank, the prudential regulator, and the regulator of systemically important financial institutions. The central bank therefore retains a strong role in systemic risk mitigation, but not full responsibility. With this model, the central bank retains access to relevant prudential data and expertise, helping risk identification. Risk mitigation is also clearly assigned to one body – the committee. On the other hand, the creation of a separate, dedicated macroprudential committee is at the expense of reduced coordination with monetary policy, potentially leading to a suboptimal policy mix.

(c) Separation model with much greater degree of institutional separation between the central bank and other supervisory agencies. The central bank is responsible for oversight of the payments system and control over the reserve requirement, but has no direct power over macroprudential tools. The identification and mitigation of risk is a multi-agency effort under this group of models. A key weakness with this model is that having multiple institutions dilutes the accountability for systemic risk – when multiple agencies are cooperating for the desired policy outcome, no one agency is fully responsible if the cooperation fails. This can lower the incentive to cooperate in the reduction of systemic risk.

31. The meeting also noted the following key aspects of the proposed institutional frameworks:

(i) A number of mechanisms to address weaknesses of institutional models are suggested. When a single agency has strong and independent powers, the use of these powers must be constrained. This can be achieved through the mandate of the policymaker, the accountability framework, and the composition of the decision making committee.

Page 13: cmi.comesa.int€¦ · Web viewCOMMON MARKET FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AFRICA Ten th Meeting of the Financial System Development and Stability Sub-Committee 5 th September, 2015 Nairobi,

CS/CMI/FSDSSC/XPage 12

(ii) A major weakness in several models is the risk of delayed decision making. Where committee membership is large, the risk is increased. Having a clear distinction between the set up for macroprudential policy and that of crisis management reduces the need for Treasury involvement. While Treasury involvement in crisis management is crucial, strong Treasury involvement in macroprudential policy can be costly.

(iii) Full cooperation between the various agencies is needed for successful macroprudential policy, yet across several models there is the potential for a lack of cooperation. Establishing a formal coordinating committee can help to alleviate this risk.

(iv) Another challenge is that of policy coordination; a policy that may stabilise the financial sector in terms of macroprudential stability may not fit well with a policy aimed at say, price stability requiring inter agency policy coordination.

Discussions

32. The meeting observed the following:

(i) The importance of taking into account cross border macroprudential issues that may arise especially when institutions being supervised have presence across borders.

(ii) The Guidelines addressed broad issues but lack clarity in proposing a clear institutional framework for COMESA region.

(iii) A disclaimer should be included at the beginning, specifying that while several of the approaches suggested in the Guidelines refer to studies and works carried out in other regions, COMESA Member Countries should therefore identify areas in the Guidelines that are best applicable to their economies.

(iv) The Guidelines should provide broad solutions to the challenges/weaknesses faced by COMESA Member countries in operationalising the three stylized institutional framework for macroprudential policy. More specifically, the Guidelines should provide solutions to the challenges identified in terms of tools, instruments and indicators that member countries can apply in line with the appendix on the experience of EAC attached to the report.

(v) The Guidelines should propose a legal framework that will empower financial regulators in COMESA Member Countries to apply macroprudential policy. The title should reflect both legal and institutional aspects in order to align it with the body of the text.

(vi) The Guidelines should be subjected to further review by sending the document to COMESA Member Central Banks for comments before the next Governors meeting.

(vii) The Guidelines should provide a more comprehensive menu of applicable tools in the analytical framework.

Recommendations

33. The workshop therefore recommended the following:

(i) The Consultant should revise the Guidelines taking into account the observations made in paragraph 32 above.

(ii) The Guidelines should clearly spell out in details the Institutional and

legal framework for the 3 stylized models that could be relevant for COMESA member.

Page 14: cmi.comesa.int€¦ · Web viewCOMMON MARKET FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AFRICA Ten th Meeting of the Financial System Development and Stability Sub-Committee 5 th September, 2015 Nairobi,

CS/CMI/FSDSSC/XPage 13

(iii) The Guidelines should clearly stipulate solutions to the weaknesses/ challenges of the Proposed Framework.

(iv) A further review of the guidelines as per the following timelines:

(a) The consultant to incorporate the comments from the validation workshop by 25th September, 2015;

(b) CMI to send the Revised Guidelines to member countries for further review by 2nd October, 2015;

(c) Member countries to send their comments on the Guidelines to CMI by 16th October, 2015;

(d) The consultant to incorporate the comments from member countries by 6th November, 2015; and

(e) CMI to send the final draft for noting to member countries by 10th November, 2015.

(v) The guidelines should incorporate definitions, methods of computations, data sources of key macroprudential indicators and a comprehensive menu of applicable tools in the analytical framework.

Work plan for Financial System Development and Stability Sub-Committee for the Year 2016 (Agenda item 6)

34. The Director of CMI presented the work plan for the Sub-Committee for 2016.

Recommendation

35. The meeting recommended the following work plan for the Financial System Development and Stability Sub-Committee for 2016.

No. Task Activity Responsibility Completion Date

1 Financial Stability Unit

Establish Financial Stability Unit Member Countries

June 2016

2 Financial Stability Committee

Establish a multi-disciplinary Financial Stability Committee

Member Countries that have not established

June 2016

Page 15: cmi.comesa.int€¦ · Web viewCOMMON MARKET FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AFRICA Ten th Meeting of the Financial System Development and Stability Sub-Committee 5 th September, 2015 Nairobi,

CS/CMI/FSDSSC/XPage 14

3 Action Plan Develop in-country Action Plan for Implementation of COMESA Framework covering:

Development of capacity on sound Macroprudential analysis;

Forward Looking Financial stability reports;

Implementation of macroprudential policies

Member Countries

June 2016

4. Submission of Forward Looking Financial Stability Reports

Electronic submission of Financial Stability Assessment Reports to the Secretariat for posting onto the COMESA website

Member Countries

June 2016

5 Financial Soundness Indicators

Electronic submission of IMF Financial Soundness Indicators (FSIs) for banking sector to the Secretariat for posting onto the COMESA website

Member Countries

June 2016

6 Compliance to the Revised Basel Core Principles

Report Compliance based on Revised Core Principles

Member Countries

June 2016

7 Capacity Building and other activities

Conduct training on the following:

(i) Basel III and Macroprudential Surveillance; and

(ii) Application of stress testing in the financial system;

(iii) Modelling volatility in financial market with particular emphasis on forecasting and multivariate framework

(iv) Econometrics and statistical techniques for Banks’ Supervisors and Financial Stability Practitioners

CMI/Member countries

June 2016

Page 16: cmi.comesa.int€¦ · Web viewCOMMON MARKET FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AFRICA Ten th Meeting of the Financial System Development and Stability Sub-Committee 5 th September, 2015 Nairobi,

CS/CMI/FSDSSC/XPage 15

8 Studies (i) Finalization of the Guidelines on Institutional and legal framework for the 3 stylized models that could be relevant for COMESA member countries

(ii) Preparation of a Guide for Construction of Financial Stability Index and Cobweb diagram

(iii) Guidelines and benchmark for designing Forward-Looking Financial Stability Reports

Consultants June 2016

(i) Estimating and forecasting volatility in short-term exchange rate using the GARCH models.

(ii) Analysis of direct and spill-over effects of exchange rate volatility on inflation using GARCH models

Researchers from Member Countries

June 2016

Any Other Business (Agenda item 7)

36. No issues were raised under this agenda item.

Closure of the meeting (Agenda item 8)

37. The meeting adopted the report with amendments.

38. Mrs. Justine Bagyenda, Executive Director Supervision, Bank of Uganda passed a vote of thanks on her behalf and on behalf of the delegates. She thanked the resource persons who facilitated the trainings for a job well done. She also thanked the participants for their active participation and the CMI staff for the efficient manner they serviced the meeting. She also thanked the management of the Kenya School of Monetary Studies for availing excellent facilities for the training.

39. In closing the meeting, the Chairman thanked delegates for their useful contributions and the resource people for their valuable contribution in undertaking successful trainings. He expressed his confidence that the trainings will greatly assist for enhanced implementation of the COMESA Framework for Assessing Financial System Stability. He wished the delegates safe journey back home.

Page 17: cmi.comesa.int€¦ · Web viewCOMMON MARKET FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AFRICA Ten th Meeting of the Financial System Development and Stability Sub-Committee 5 th September, 2015 Nairobi,

CS/CMI/FSDSSC/XPage 16

LIST OF PARTICIPANTS/LISTE DES PARTICIPANTS

EGYPT

1. Mr. Ahmed Mohamed Ahmed Sahloul (PhD) Quantitative Risk Analyst, Central Bank of Egypt, 54 El Gomhoria Street. Down Town, Cairo, Tel. +202 167771643, E-mail: [email protected]

KENYA

2. Mr. Simon Gachira Gichuki, Manager, Central Bank of Kenya, P. O. Box 60000 00200 Nairobi, Tel. +254 020 2863041, Email: [email protected]

MADAGASCAR

3. Mr. Andriambelosoa Saminirina, Senior Economist, Financial Stability Unit, Banque Centrale De Madagascar, BP 550, Tananarive, Madagascar, Tel. +261 320246147, Email: [email protected] / [email protected]

4. Ms. Rakotoarimanana Tahiry Ny Aina, Banking Supervisor, Commision De Supervision Bancaire Et Financière, Banque Centrale De Madagascar, BP 550, Antananarivo 101 Madagascar, Tel. +261 346122044, Email: [email protected] / [email protected]

MALAWI

5. Mr. Ketamyoto Mulwafu, Chief Examiner, Bank Supervision Department, Reserve Bank of Malawi, P. O. Box 565 Blantyre, Malawi, Tel. +265 1 820299, E-mail: [email protected]

6. Ms. Margaret Kaphinde, Reserve Bank of Malawi, P.O. Box 30063, Lilongwe 3 , Malawi, Tel. +265 999320470, E-mail: [email protected] / [email protected]

Page 18: cmi.comesa.int€¦ · Web viewCOMMON MARKET FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AFRICA Ten th Meeting of the Financial System Development and Stability Sub-Committee 5 th September, 2015 Nairobi,

CS/CMI/FSDSSC/XPage 17

7. Mr. Chimwemwe Mlaviwa, Examiner Banks, Bank Supervision Department, Reserve Bank of Malawi, P. O. Box 565, Blantrye, Malawi, Tel. +265 999867380, Email: [email protected]

RWANDA

8. Mr. Valence Kimenyi, Manager, Financial Stability Monitoring and Policy, National Bank of Rwanda, Tel. +250 785068423, Email: [email protected]

SUDAN

9. Mr. Bushra Khair Elhag Khair, Economist, Central Bank of Sudan; P.O. Box 313, Khartoum, Tel. +249 12 1053396, E-mail: [email protected]

10. Mr. Elhadi Mustafa Mohamed Elamin, Banking Supervisor, Central Bank of Sudan, P. O. Box 313, Khartoum, Sudan, Tel. +249 187056530, Fax. +249 183767110, Email: elhadi- [email protected]

11. Mr. Barakat Ahmed Elmahi Ibrahim, Central Bank of Sudan, P. O. Box 313, Khartoum, Sudan, Tel. +249 912316199, Email: [email protected]

12. Mr. Mustafa Abdel Gadir Ali Dinar, Economist, Central Bank of Sudan, P. O. Box 313, Khartoum, Sudan, Tel. +249 912224032, Fax. +249 183181341, Email: [email protected]

SWAZILAND

13. Mr. Wellington Motsa, Manager, Financial Stability, Central Bank of Swaziland, P. O. Box 546 Mbabane Swaziland, Tel. +268 24082159, Fax. +268 24047219, Email: [email protected]

UGANDA

14. Mrs Justine Bagyenda, Executive Director Supervision, Bank of Uganda; P.O. Box 7120, Kampala, Tel. +256 414 230051, E-mail: [email protected]

15. Ms. Pamela Kahwa, Principal Banking Officer, Bank of Uganda, P. O. Box 7120 Kampala Tel. +256 750147972, Email: pkahwa @bou.or.ug

16. Mr. Peter Mugisa, Principal Banking Officer, Bank of Uganda; P.O. Box 7120, Kampala, Tel. +256 414 258441, E-mail: [email protected]

Page 19: cmi.comesa.int€¦ · Web viewCOMMON MARKET FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AFRICA Ten th Meeting of the Financial System Development and Stability Sub-Committee 5 th September, 2015 Nairobi,

CS/CMI/FSDSSC/XPage 18

ZIMBABWE

17. Mr. Collen Masunda, Senior Bank Examiner, Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, 80 Samora Machel Avenue, Harare, Tel. +263 14773542730/+263 70300, Email: [email protected]

COMESA Monetary Institute

18. Mr. Ibrahim A. Zeidy, Director, COMESA Monetary Institute; P. O Box 65041-00618, Nairobi, E-mail:[email protected]

19. Dr. Lucas Njoroge, Senior Economist, COMESA Monetary Institute, P. O. Box 65041 00618, Nairobi, Email: [email protected]

20. Mrs. Monica Cherwon, Administrative Assistant, COMESA Monetary Institute, Administrative Assistant, E-mail: [email protected]

21. Mr. Jacob Omondi Oyoo, Bilingual Secretary, COMESA Monetary Institute, Bilingual Secretary, E-mail: [email protected] / [email protected]