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Gary Schaub, Jr. The Centre for Military Studies Denmark’s Go-To Defence Think Tank Dr. Gary Schaub, Jr. Centre for Military Studies 7 May 2015 Centre for Military Studies

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Overskrift her Navn på oplægsholder Navn på KU-enhed

For at ændre �Enhedens navn� og �Sted og dato�: Klik i menulinjen, vælg �Indsæt� > �Sidehoved / Sidefod�. Indføj �Sted og dato� i feltet for dato og �Enhedens navn� i Sidefod

Gary Schaub, Jr.

The Centre for Military Studies Denmark’s Go-To Defence Think Tank

Dr. Gary Schaub, Jr. Centre for Military Studies 7 May 2015

Centre for Military Studies

Tekst starter uden punktopstilling For at få punkt-opstilling på teksten, brug forøg indrykning For at få venstre-stillet tekst uden punktopstilling, brug formindsk indrykning

Overskrift her

For at ændre �Enhedens navn� og �Sted og dato�: Klik i menulinjen, vælg �Indsæt� > �Sidehoved / Sidefod�. Indføj �Sted og dato� i feltet for dato og �Enhedens navn� i Sidefod

Centre for Military Studies

•  Independent think tank at University of Copenhagen cooperating closely with the Danish MoD

• 

•  Providing strategic analyses and recommendations

•  Improving the strategic dialogue

Gary Schaub, Jr.

Tekst starter uden punktopstilling For at få punkt-opstilling på teksten, brug forøg indrykning For at få venstre-stillet tekst uden punktopstilling, brug formindsk indrykning

Overskrift her

For at ændre �Enhedens navn� og �Sted og dato�: Klik i menulinjen, vælg �Indsæt� > �Sidehoved / Sidefod�. Indføj �Sted og dato� i feltet for dato og �Enhedens navn� i Sidefod

Centre for Military Studies: History

•  Danish Institute for Military Studies •  Authorized by 2004 Defence Agreement •  Established Jan 2007 •  Mission: Provide Independent Research on Defence

& Security Policy •  Located in Royal Danish Defence College •  Liaise with MoD

•  Centre for Military Studies •  Authorized by 2010 Defence Agreement •  Established April 2010 •  Mission: Provide Independent Research-based

Consultancy on Defence & Security Policy for the Ministry of Defence & the Political Parties behind the Defence Agreement

•  Located in University of Copenhagen •  Liaise with MoD

3

Gary Schaub, Jr.

17 April 2015

Centre for Military Studies: People

4

Gary Schaub, Jr.

17 April 2015

Kristian Søby Kristensen, Ph.D. •  Small State Defence Policies •  NATO •  Arctic

Henrik Ø. Breitenbauch, Ph.D. •  Security Strategies •  NATO Defense Planning •  Stabilization Operations

Gary Schaub, Jr., Ph.D. •  Air Power •  Military Education •  Civil-Military Relations

Centre for Military Studies: People

5

Gary Schaub, Jr.

17 April 2015

Kristian Knus Larsen, Ph.D. •  Defense Planning •  Performance Measurements •  Strategy

Ann-Sofie Dahl, Ph.D. •  Nordic-Baltic Security •  NATO •  US Foreign & Security Policy

Major Rune Hoffmann •  Ground Forces •  Conventional Arms Control •  Critical Infrastructure

Tekst starter uden punktopstilling For at få punkt-opstilling på teksten, brug forøg indrykning For at få venstre-stillet tekst uden punktopstilling, brug formindsk indrykning

Overskrift her

For at ændre �Enhedens navn� og �Sted og dato�: Klik i menulinjen, vælg �Indsæt� > �Sidehoved / Sidefod�. Indføj �Sted og dato� i feltet for dato og �Enhedens navn� i Sidefod

Denmark: Combat Aircraft Replacement

2010 Defence Agreement •  2014 Decision

•  Strategic Issues •  Capability Issues •  Industrial Issues •  Financial Issues

•  2012 Defence Agreement •  Decision June 2015

2005 – 2010 Process •  MoD Study of Options

•  Extend F-16 •  UAVs + Helos +Air Def •  New Combat Aircraft

•  2008 Decision Deferred •  2010 Decision Deferred

6

Gary Schaub, Jr.

17 April 2015

Tekst starter uden punktopstilling For at få punkt-opstilling på teksten, brug forøg indrykning For at få venstre-stillet tekst uden punktopstilling, brug formindsk indrykning

Overskrift her

For at ændre �Enhedens navn� og �Sted og dato�: Klik i menulinjen, vælg �Indsæt� > �Sidehoved / Sidefod�. Indføj �Sted og dato� i feltet for dato og �Enhedens navn� i Sidefod

CMS Air Power: Combat Aircraft 2007

•  Does Denmark need Combat Aircraft to Fulfill its Grand Strategy?

•  3 Alternative Models •  Night Watch

•  National Defence •  Air Support

•  Support Ground Forces •  Air Warrior

•  National Defence •  Expeditionary Operations

•  Conclusion: Air Warrior Best fits Danish

Grand Strategy •  New Combat Aircraft Necessary

7

Gary Schaub, Jr.

17 April 2015

Tekst starter uden punktopstilling For at få punkt-opstilling på teksten, brug forøg indrykning For at få venstre-stillet tekst uden punktopstilling, brug formindsk indrykning

Overskrift her

For at ændre �Enhedens navn� og �Sted og dato�: Klik i menulinjen, vælg �Indsæt� > �Sidehoved / Sidefod�. Indføj �Sted og dato� i feltet for dato og �Enhedens navn� i Sidefod

CMS Air Power: Combat Aircraft 2008

•  How did Denmark Choose the F-16? •  Danish Considerations

•  Depoliticized •  Technical Specifications & Costs •  MNFP Partner Choices •  Not Indicative of Fealty to Partners

•  F-16 ≠ NATO •  Mirage ≠ European Community •  Viggen ≠ Nordic

•  Conclusion •  F-16 Technically Superior & Least

Costly •  F-16 Chosen by all Partners •  F-16 & NATO best fit Danish Grand

Strategy

8

Gary Schaub, Jr.

17 April 2015

Tekst starter uden punktopstilling For at få punkt-opstilling på teksten, brug forøg indrykning For at få venstre-stillet tekst uden punktopstilling, brug formindsk indrykning

Overskrift her

For at ændre �Enhedens navn� og �Sted og dato�: Klik i menulinjen, vælg �Indsæt� > �Sidehoved / Sidefod�. Indføj �Sted og dato� i feltet for dato og �Enhedens navn� i Sidefod

CMS Air Power: UAVs 2014

•  UAVs add Persistence to Long-Range Recon/Precision Strike Complex

•  Decades of US Development •  Manned Aircraft & Satellites Better at

Strategic Reconnaissance •  Tactical Recon developed in Viet Nam •  Unsuited for Cold War Europe •  1990s: Low Intensity Conflict, Permissive

Environment ! Usefulness •  Integration & Development in 2000s

•  British & French •  Second Movers •  Focused on Tactical Recon •  Moderate Success

•  Denmark •  Third Mover •  Failed Integration of Off-the-Shelf

9

Gary Schaub, Jr.

17 April 2015

Tekst starter uden punktopstilling For at få punkt-opstilling på teksten, brug forøg indrykning For at få venstre-stillet tekst uden punktopstilling, brug formindsk indrykning

Overskrift her

For at ændre �Enhedens navn� og �Sted og dato�: Klik i menulinjen, vælg �Indsæt� > �Sidehoved / Sidefod�. Indføj �Sted og dato� i feltet for dato og �Enhedens navn� i Sidefod

CMS Air Power: UAVs 2014

•  UAVs add Persistence to Long-Range Recon/Precision Strike Complex

•  Denmark: Tactical Surveillance •  1994: Authorized, 1999 Acquired •  10 Sperwer from Sagem •  Air Materiel Command to Modify •  Army Operational Command to Use

•  Problems •  Immature system •  Lack Spare Parts •  Bad Support Contract with Sagem •  Army inability to hire technicians •  ! Unable to Certify •  ! Divested to Canada in 2006

•  Lesson: UAVs are Complex •  ! Cooperate with Allies on Larger

Systems

10

Gary Schaub, Jr.

17 April 2015

Tekst starter uden punktopstilling For at få punkt-opstilling på teksten, brug forøg indrykning For at få venstre-stillet tekst uden punktopstilling, brug formindsk indrykning

Overskrift her

For at ændre �Enhedens navn� og �Sted og dato�: Klik i menulinjen, vælg �Indsæt� > �Sidehoved / Sidefod�. Indføj �Sted og dato� i feltet for dato og �Enhedens navn� i Sidefod

CMS Air Power: Combat Aircraft 2014

•  Denmark is Not Alone

11

Gary Schaub, Jr.

17 April 2015

CMS Air Power: Combat Aircraft 2015

12

Gary Schaub, Jr.

17 April 2015

Integrating Innovative Air Power: Facing 21st Century Strategic Challenges

17 April 2015

Tekst starter uden punktopstilling For at få punkt-opstilling på teksten, brug forøg indrykning For at få venstre-stillet tekst uden punktopstilling, brug formindsk indrykning

Overskrift her

For at ændre �Enhedens navn� og �Sted og dato�: Klik i menulinjen, vælg �Indsæt� > �Sidehoved / Sidefod�. Indføj �Sted og dato� i feltet for dato og �Enhedens navn� i Sidefod

CMS Air Power: Combat Aircraft 2015

•  1975: 2.65 Billion DKK got more than just 58 combat aircraft •  Increased Danish Combat Power •  Increased Danish Commitment to NATO •  Increased NATO & US Commitment to

Denmark

•  Resulted from Multinational Cooperation in F-16 •  Procurement •  Modernization •  Maintenance •  Parts Sharing •  Fleet Management •  Pilot Training •  Multinational Exercises •  Multinational Deployments •  Munitions Sharing

•  Common Aircraft for Common Purposes

13

Gary Schaub, Jr.

17 April 2015

CMS Air Power: Academic Development

14

Gary Schaub, Jr.

17 April 2015

JUSTAS For All? Innovation and UAVs in the Canadian Forces

•  Air Force: UAVs Expensive, Transformative Opportunity !  Little Progress

•  Army: UAVs Inexpensive, Adaptive Necessity !  Problematic Introduction, Successful Integration

•  Navy: UAVs Inexpensive, Adaptive Opportunity ! Delayed but Smooth Introduction

But Who’s Flying the Plane? Integrating UAVs into the Canadian and Danish Armed Forces •  UAVs add Persistence to Long-Range Recon/Precision Strike Complex •  Denmark & Canada: Similar Paths to UAV integration

•  Tactical UAVs to Army Artillery Units •  Integration issues

•  Canada: Operational Necessity ! Overcomes Difficulties •  Denmark: No Deployment ! Failed Program

CMS Air Power: Forthcoming

15

Gary Schaub, Jr.

17 April 2015

Western Air Power Transformation and Innovation

Gary Schaub, Jr., Editor

Georgetown University Press or Rowman & Littlefield 2016

•  2015 MoD: Automation on the Battlefield •  Report •  Symposia: Copenhagen & Atlanta

•  In cooperation with Kennesaw State University

•  2016: Multilateral UAV Programs?

•  Schaub on Air Power Transformation

•  Morgan on USAF •  Goette & March on Canada •  Sabin on RAF •  Anrig on France •  Osinga on Netherlands •  Henriksen on Norway

•  Schaub on Denmark •  Bitzinger & Lundmark on

Sweden •  Meulman on Future Trends •  Schaub on Integrating Future

Capabilities

Tekst starter uden punktopstilling For at få punkt-opstilling på teksten, brug forøg indrykning For at få venstre-stillet tekst uden punktopstilling, brug formindsk indrykning

Overskrift her

For at ændre �Enhedens navn� og �Sted og dato�: Klik i menulinjen, vælg �Indsæt� > �Sidehoved / Sidefod�. Indføj �Sted og dato� i feltet for dato og �Enhedens navn� i Sidefod

Time’s Up! Questions?

16

Gary Schaub, Jr.

17 April 2015

http://cms.polsci.ku.dk/english