cni indicators issn 1983-621x • year 18 • number 8...

In August, CNI’s Industrial Indicators point out that industry is still showing signs of continued recession. In the seasonally and working-day adjusted series, most indices experienced a decline in August from the month before, except solely for capacity utilization.

In the original series (not adjusted for seasonal factors or working days), sales and hours worked increased between July and August (up by 5.3% and 1%, respectively). However, the situation is the opposite in the seasonally adjusted series: sales and hours worked are down respectively by

Industrial indicators fall in August

Industrial indicators – August 2016 Seasonally adjusted change from July 2016

Ç REAL SALES Down by 3.9%

Ç HOURS WORKED IN PRODUCTION Down by 3.2%Indústria Petrolífera

Indústria Química

Pequena Média Grande

Indústrias Diversas

Indústria da Construção Indústria de Energia

Ç CAPACITY UTILIZATIONUp by 0.3 percentage points

3.9% and 3.2%. The difference between the two scenarios (original and seasonally adjusted series) is largely explained by an increased number of working days in August as compared to July – both variables were expected to grow more strongly as a result of the higher number of working days.

The continued decline in industrial activity is still impacting the labor market indicators. In the seasonally adjusted series, industrial employment experienced another decline – as did real average earnings and total payroll.

Ç EMPLOYMENT Down by 0.4%

Ç REAL TOTAL PAYROLL Down by 0.6%

Ç REAL AVERAGE EARNINGSDown by 0.3%

CNI IndicatorsISSN 1983-621X • Year 18 • Number 8 • August 2016

INDUSTRIAL INDICATORS

2

Industrial indicatorsISSN 1983-621X • Year 18 • Number 8 • August 2016

Hours worked in productionSeasonally adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)

Hours worked in production fall againIn the seasonally adjusted series, hours worked dropped by 3.2%. The fall comes after two months of small changes (0.3% increase in June and 0.2% decline in July). In the January-August 2016 period, hours worked edged down by 8.8% as compared to the same period the year before.

EmploymentSeasonally adjusted (fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)

Sales down by 7.5% in two monthsReal sales edged down by 3.9% in August on a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis. This marked the second consecutive decline in the index. In the year to August, sales are down by 12.1% from the same period in 2015.

Real salesSeasonally adjusted (fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)

101

105

109

113

117

Aug/13 Feb/14 Aug/14 Feb/15 Aug/15 Feb/16 Aug/16

90

85

95

105

110

100

115


Employment hits lowest level since November 2004

Industrial employment recorded a 0.4% decline in August in seasonally adjusted terms. As a result, the index is down for the nineteenth consecutive month – over this period, jobs shrank by 12.8% on a seasonally adjusted basis. In the year to August, the index is down by 8.7% as compared to the corresponding period in 2015.


100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

3


77

79

81

83

85


Real average earnings down for third month straight

Real average earnings

Real average earnings dropped by 0.3% in August on a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis. The index has declined for three consecutive months. Compared with August 2015, earnings are down by 1.9%. In the first eight months of 2016, the indicator shrank by 1.1% from the same period the year before.

Seasonally adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)

Deflator: INPC-IBGE

Capacity utilization increases in the month

Capacity utilizationSeasonally adjusted (average percentage)

Deflator: INPC-IBGE

Capacity utilization amounted to 77.1% in August in seasonally adjusted terms. The figure is up by 0.3 percentage points from July, but down by 0.8 percentage points from August 2015.

77.1%

Indústria Petrolífera

Indústria Química

Pequena Média Grande

Indústrias Diversas

Indústria da Construção Indústria de Energia

Total payroll keeps falling

Real total payroll experienced a 0.6% decline between July and August in seasonally adjusted terms. Compared with August 2015, the index is down by 8.6%.

Real total payrollSeasonally-adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)

Deflator: INPC-IBGE

115

120

125

130

135


112

114

116

118

120



1 Deflator: IPA/OG-FGV - 2 Deflator: INPC-IBGE

PERCENTAGE CHANGE AUG16/ JUL16 AUG16/ JUL16SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

AUG16/ AUG15 JAN-AUG16/ JAN-AUG15

Real sales1 5.3 -3.9 -12.0 -12.1

Worked hours in production 1.0 -3.2 -5.4 -8.8

Employment -0.1 -0.4 -6.8 -8.7

Real total payroll2 -1.9 -0.6 -8.6 -9.7

Real average earnings2 -1.8 -0.3 -1.9 -1.1

AVERAGE PERCENTAGE AUG16 JUL16 AUG15

Capacity utilization 77.6 76.9 78.2

Capacity utilization - Seasonally adjusted 77.1 76.8 77.9

INDUSTRIAL INDICATORS | English version of “indicadores Industriais agosto/2016” | Monthly Publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www.cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Unit - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC | Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Marcelo Souza Azevedo, Edson Velloso and Priscila Garcia | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic design supervision: Carla Gadêlha | Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 - email: [email protected] | This publication may be copied, provided that the source is cited.

Learn more

i For more information on the survey, including historical series and methodology, kindly visit: www.cni.org.br/e_indindustriais

Resume of results - Industrial Indicators

http://www.cni.org.br/e_indindustriais

cni indicators issn 1983-621x • year 18 • number 8...

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