cnn-ibn_opinion poll report on upa-ii performance in fourth year.pptx

7/30/2019 CNN-IBN_Opinion Poll Report on UPA-II Performance in Fourth Year.pptx

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Opinion Poll

onUPA-II Government in Fourth Year

Presentation of Findings

May, 2013


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The UPA government is completing its 4th year in the second term.

CNN-IBN is interested in conducting an opinion poll in order to understand the pulse of the

urban mindset, about the current state of governance as well as Dr. Manmohan Singhs

leadership of the coalition-based UPA government.

The Opinion Poll was conducted in 12 centers:

Ahmedabad, Chennai, Delhi, Kolkata, Lucknow, Mumbai, Jaipur, Chandigarh, Bangalore,

Hyderabad, Bhopal and Patna

The target group for the Opinion Poll was fairly representative and comprised:

Adult Males and Females (18 years and above)

Acro ss SEC A/B/C

Interviews were carried out in respondents homes and in street corners

Interviews were conducted between 7th and 11th May, 2013

The Context


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UPA-II PERFORMANCE


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5

Are you satisfied with the Current Term of UPA Government?

3719

161612

Completelydissatisfied

Somewhatdissatisfied

Neither satisfied nordissatisfied

Somewhat satisfiedCompletely satisfied

More than half the respondents are dissatisfied with the current governments performance.

The dissatisfaction is highest among Delhi and Chennai respondents

Level of dissatisfaction relatively lower in Bangalore probably driven by Congresss recent election win

in the state

Base : All (2466)

Figures in %

B2B scores i.e.

Completely/Somewhat

Dissatisfied = 56%T2B scores i.e.

Completely/Somewhat

Satisfied = 28%


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6

Credibility of UPA-II Government

67%

31%

2%

Do you th ink that the Dr. Manmohan Singh-

led UPA governm ent has lost its credib i l i ty to

gov ern India?

Yes, they have lostcredibility

No, despite all thenegative events, theyare still better thanothers

DK/CS

The Prime Minister and the UPA government appears to have lost their credibility in the eyes of the public -

as two-third respondents agree to the statement.

Majority of the Delhi respondents (95%) feel the same; however, some level of support to UPA-II comes from Mumbai

since 50% say that Despite all the negative events, they are still better than others to govern India.

Base : All (2466)

68%

28%

4%

Do you think that the government has lostal l credib il i ty to rule the country anymore?

Yes

No

DK/CS

Base : All (2466)


7/427

71

20

8

1

Corruption Levels

Increased

Remained the same

Decreased

DK/CS

Performance of UPA-II Government on Key IssuesCorruption

Nearly 3/4th respondents at an overall level say that the corruption levels have increased in the last one year.

More than 60% respondents in all the centres (except Chandigarh and Bhopal) say that the corruption levels

have increased perception highest in Delhi (94%)

Majority in Chandigarh have mixed opinion i.e. the corruption has either remained the same or increased

Close to one-third respondents in Bhopal opine that the corruption levels have decreased

Figures in %

Base : All (2466)


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Performance of UPA-II Government on Key IssuesPrice Rise

Majority of respondents across all centres feel that the prices of all commodities, including the essential

ones have increased significantly

Figures in %

Base : All (2466)

51

43

5

2

Price Rise

Declined for all commodities

Remained the same for all commodities

Increased for all commodities

Increased for most essential commodities


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Performance of UPA-II Government on Key Issues

State of Economy

Close to 2/3rd of respondents feel that the state of economy has worsened.

Only exceptions being Chandigarh and Bhopal, where 40% respondents say that the state of the economy

has improved

Figures in %

Base : All (2466)

13

22

64

1

State Of Economy

Improved

Remained the same

Declined

DK/CS


10/4210

Statement that Best Describes UPA Government

35

23

16 16

10

Weak and total ly lacks

cou rage to take

decis ions

Lacks the po l i t ical

matur i ty to govern

India

Badly lacks

comm unicat ion ski l ls

needed to govern a

modern country

Lack of good and

talented

leaders/min isters in

the coalit ion

Arrogance of the

government has

created mistrust w ith

the opposi t ion

Figures in %

More than 1/3rd feel that the current government is weak and lacks courage, while close to 25% think that

they lack political maturity

While nearly 50% respondents in Mumbai believe the government lacks courage and political maturity ( Lacks courage to take

decisions, Lacks the political maturity to govern India), about 60% in Lucknow think that the government lacks courage as well

as good leaders in coalition (Lacks courage to take decisions,Lack of good and talented leaders in the coalition).

While more than 1/3rd respondents in Bangalore state that the UPA-II lacks communication skills required to govern the country

Base : All (2466)


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Dr. Manmohan Singhled UPA Governments Biggest Failure

34

24

12

7

7 7

4

1 1 1 1

Failure tocontrol price

rise

Failure tocontrol

corruption

Failure toimprove

economy &business

Inability tomanage a

coalition govt

Failure toaddress issuesrelated to law &

order

Indecisiveapproach

towards takingstrong

decisions

Poor quality ofoverall

governance

Intolerancetowards

criticism/dissentexpressed in

the socialmedia

Poor foreignpolicy

managementand failure to

controlPakistan/China

Failure tosecure the

support of itsown Congress

party

None of these

Price rise and inflation has been stated as the biggest failure of UPA-II by 1/3rd respondents, closely

followed by 1/4th respondents suggesting Corruption as the biggest failure

Close to 40% respondents in Chandigarh consider the indecisiveapproach of the government as their biggest failure

Figures in %

Base : All (2466)


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Dr. Manmohan Singhled UPA Governments Biggest Success

12 12

109 9

63

3

34

2

ManagedIndias foreign

policy

effectively

Managed tokeep the

economy stable

in difficult times

Acteddecisivelyagainst

corruption

Managedalliance

partners &

minority govtsuccessfully

Successfullystrengthened

laws on crimes

against women

Able to controlprice rise

Managed tocontrol Naxal

threat

effectively

Successfullylaunched

schemes like

Direct TransferBenefit

None of these DK/CS

Though more than one-third feel that the current UPA government does not have any major success story

in its hands, about one-tenth have shown appreciation for its management of foreign policy and

stabilization of the economy

Nearly one-third respondents in Bangalore and Bhopal opine that the Foreign policy has been managed effectively

While more than one-fourth respondents in Mumbai and Patna think that the economy was kept stable in difficult

times

Figures in %

Base : All (2466)


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Coal Mine Allotment Controversy

50%

13%

28%

9%

Who is responsib le for the Coal mines al lotment

controversy and has benef i ted the mos t from it?

Congress

BJP government in States

Both, Congress and BJP

DK/CS

65%

28%

7%

Should the Pr ime Minister be held responsib le for the

Coal Mines al lotment controversy?

Yes No DK/CS

Half of the respondents say that Congress is primarily responsible for the Coal-mine allotment while

about 30% feel that both, Congress and BJP are equally responsible.

More than 40% in Bangalore, Kolkata and Chandigarh consider that Congress and BJP , both have benefited from the

Coal-mine allotment.

Majority of respondents across centres say that the PM should be held responsible for the coal mine

controversy only exceptions are Bangalore and Kolkata

Base : All (2466)


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14

Close to 2/3rd respondents think that the PMO is trying to cover-up the scams.

Respondents in Lucknow almost universally agree with this statement

However, Bangalore and Chandigarh respondents think otherwise

64%

25%

11%

Do you think that thePrime Ministers Office is try ing to

hide or co ver-up scams like Coal-gate or 2G etc?

Yes

No

DK/CS

Is PMO covering-up Scams??

Base : All (2466)


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15

58%30%

12%

Is UPA Governm ent being press urized &

blackmai led by coal i t ion?

Yes

No

DK/CS

Is UPA Government blackmailed by Coalition??

More than half the respondents think that the UPA government is being pressurized by the coalition

partners

However, respondents in Bangalore and Ahmedabad feel otherwise

Base : All (2466)


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CURRENT PRIME MINISTER


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17

20

13

13

12

12

12

11

6

1

Not bold or tough in taking decisions

Lacks imagination, is slow & has poor communication skills

Lacks skill needed in a Prime Minister and is inconsistent

Experienced, effective and determined

An honest man

Honest, but has failed in acting against corrupt people

Not as honest as he is claimed to be

Good man with a clean image but lacks governance skill

DK/CS

Prime Minister being described as.

Figures in %

Current Prime Minister described as: Ahm Del Chen Bang Mum Kol Hyd Luck Pat Chan Bho Jaip

Base : All 199 201 224 201 204 214 200 202 208 204 204 205

Experienced, effective and determined 6 1 15 6 20 8 12 5 22 21 29 2Lacks imagination, is slow and has poor communication skills 13 29 15 21 6 10 9 15 18 0 15 5

Lacks skills needed in a Prime Minister and is inconsistent 13 11 15 13 11 11 33 14 10 0 6 15

Not bold or toug h in taking decision s 38 18 31 24 16 16 21 12 15 20 7 25

Not as honest as he is claimed to be 9 12 7 21 9 10 12 22 3 20 7 5

Honest, but has failed in acting against corrupt people 13 15 3 4 10 20 2 15 13 21 2 21

There is mixed opinion about Dr. Manmohan Singh among the respondents, though one-fifth have described

him as Not bold or tough in taking decisions.

Base : All (2466)


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18

Performance of Dr. Manmohan Singh in UPA-II

5

14

27

23

31

Outstanding Good Average Disappointing/Poor Very Disappointing/VeryPoor

Ahm Del Chen Bang Mum Kol Hyd Luck Pat Chan Bhop Jaip

Base: All 199 201 224 201 204 214 200 202 208 204 204 205

T2B score 6 6 6 22 31 14 17 16 6 40 49 19

B2B score 40 79 80 26 35 42 68 60 68 39 50 57

Figures in %

More than half the respondents have rated Dr. Manmohan Singhs performance in the second term as

poor.

The PMs performance has been rated poor especially in Delhi and Chennai, while in Chandigarh and Bhopal more

than 40% are satisfied with his performance.

In Bangalore, half of the respondents have rated PMs performance as average.

Top 2 Bo x (T2B) = 19

Bottom 2 Box (B2B) = 54

Base : All (2466)


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19

Recently, many scams were reported and PMO was said to be aware of

these scams in different ministries.

Do you believe that Dr. Manmohan Singh is an honest man?

40%

33%

24%

3% Yes

No

My perception about his honesty hasreduced in the last year

DK/CS

For more than half the respondents, the PM is either not honest or perception about his honesty has

declined in the last year.

The change in perception has been observed for about 50% respondents in Bangalore.

However, about 60% respondents in Mumbai and Kolkata still believe that the PM is an honest man.

Base : All (2466)


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20

Most Suitable Candidate in current UPA Government to be

Prime Minister of India

24

17

8

4 4

3 2 1 1

15

18

2

RahulGandhi

Dr.Manmohan

Singh

SoniaGandhi

P.

Chidambaram

A.K.

Antony

SharadPawar

SushilKumar

Shinde

MeiraKumar

SheilaDikshit

Noneofabove

NonefromU

PA

DK/CS

Figures in %

Though one-fourth of the respondents do not find anyone in UPA government suitable to the lead the

country, about 1/4th respondents find RahulGandhi suitable to be the Prime Minister in the current UPA

government

About 1/3rd respondents in Ahmedabad , Bangalore and Mumbai support Rahul Gandhi for the post

However, in Kolkata and Bhopal Dr. Manmohan Singh being supported by more than 1/3rd respondents

Base : All (2466)


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21

Should Dr. Manmohan Singh be replaced as Prime Minister?

61%

37%

2%

Yes

No

DK/CS

39

13

76

3 2 2

23

3

Base : All (2466)

Most Suitable to replace Dr. Manmohan

Singh in Congress Party

Figures in %

Majority of the respondents across centres say that Dr. Manmohan Singh should be replaced as the Prime

Minister in India

Those who think that Dr. Manmohan Singh should be replaced, consider Rahul Gandhi as the most

suitable replacement for him

Base : Respondents who think that

Dr. Manmohan Singh should be replaced (1509)


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UPCOMING ELECTIONS


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23

Should the Government call forearly electio ns?

At All India level, there is mixed response towards early elections

Majority of respondents(66%) from Delhi believe that the government should call for immediate elections

whereas majority (72%) in Mumbai believe that the UPA government should complete their full term.

48%49%

3%Yes, they should call forimmediate elections

No, they should completethe full term

DK/CS

Base : All (2466)


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24

Does the UPA Government deserve another chance?

At All India level, majority of respondents(56%) believe that UPA government does not deserve another

chance to govern India

Majority of respondents(78%) from Chennai believe that the government does not deserve another

chance whereas nearly 60% respondents in Mumbai believe that the UPA government still deserve

another chance.

40%

56%

4%

Yes No DK/CS

Base : All (2466)


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25

Which candidate would you like leading India as the next

Prime Minister?

Figures in %

Among given candidates, Narendra Modi gets maximum support - more than twice that of Rahul Gandhi or

Dr. Manmohan Singh.

40% of younger respondents (18-25 yrs) have supported Narendra Modi over Rahul Gandhi - with Rahul

Gandhi securing only 13% support from youth.

In centers like Bhopal and Kolkata, support for Dr. Manmohan Singh relatively higher

In Bangalore 1/3rd respondents prefer Rahul Gandhi

132 5 2

2 1

38

2 2

141 6

3 27 1

Base : All (2466)


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26

Most-Suitable Candidate in BJP forPrime Minister

Figures in %

More than half of the respondents consider Narendra Modi as the most suitable candidate for Prime

Minister from BJP; getting high support from Ahmedabad(84%) and Bhopal(79%) - no other leader in the

BJP enjoys as much popularity as NarendraModi

L.K Advani considered as second most suitable however extent of preference significantly lower as

compared to that of Narendra Modi.

110

60

1 18

5 12 2

ArunJaitley

LKAdvani

NarendraModi

RamanSingh

ShivrajSingh

Chauhan

SushmaSwaraj

Noneofabove

NoneinBJP

DK/CS

Base : All (2466)


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27

Most-Suitable Non-Congress / Non-BJP Candidate for

Prime Minister

Figures in %

Close to half the respondents do not find any Non-BJP/Non-Congress candidate as suitable for being the

next Prime Minister.

Among the candidates, Mamata Banerjee and Nitish Kumar relatively more popular

Nitish Kumar getting support from more than half the respondents in Patna.

124

16

3

17

1

44

3

JJayalalitha

KKarunanidh

i

MamataBanerjee

NaveenPatnaik

NitishKumar

PrakashKara

t

Noneofthe

above

DK/CS

Base : All (2466)


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28

Most-Suitable Candidate in UPA alliance forPrime Minister

Figures in %

Close to half the respondents believe that no one among the UPA Allies is a suitable candidate to be the

Prime Minister of India.

Sharad Pawar, Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mayawati relatively more popular

13

17

15

2

44

8

Sharad Pawar Mulayam SinghYadav

Mayawati Omar Abdullah None of above DK/CS

Base : All (2466)


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29

Narendra Modi orRahul Gandhi:

Next Prime Minister of India?

Between Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi, majority of respondents at an overall level prefer the former

as next Prime Minister.

Narendra Modi secures maximum support of 91% from Lucknow

29%

56%

13%

2% Rahul Gandhi

Narendra Modi

Neither of them should bePrime Minister

Don't Know

Base : All (2466)


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30

Perceptions about Narendra Modi as Future Prime Minister

Figures in %

About 40% respondents think that Narendra Modi has clear idea andsolutionsand is business friendly

and can bringdevelopment.

2

17

18

19

29

34

40

41

DK/CS

Dictatorial style of working & creates disharmony in the society

Governance ability at National level not yet tested

Not fair to all sections of the society

Honest and a man of personal integrity

Effective record in governance

Can take tough decisions, business friendly & will bring development

Can take strong decisions, clear ideas & solutions to problems

Base : All (2466)


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31

Perceptions about Rahul Gandhi as Future Prime Minister

Figures in %

Mixed opinions about Rahul Gandhi can be perceived among the respondents.

Close to 1/3rd respondents believe that Rahul Gandhi is immature and inexperienced to be the Prime

Minister however around 30% also feel that he can take tough decisions and will bring about

development

Overall, level of endorsements in favour of Narendra Modi higher than that of Rahul Gandhi

3

23

25

26

28

29

32

DK/CS

Represents youth, understands aspirations of young nation

Can take strong decisions, has vision, clear ideas & solutions toproblems

Honest and a man of personal integrity

Can take tough decisions, business-friendly & will bring development

No past record of governance

Immature, inexperienced & hence, can't become the PM

Base : All (2466)


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32

Are young Congress leaders not able to grow because of

Rahul Gandhi?

More than half of the respondents do not consider Rahul Gandhi as hindrance to the growth of young

Congress leaders

36%

58%

6%

Yes No DK/CS

Base : All (2466)


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33

Most Appealing Gandhi Sibling

Rahul Gandhi is chosen to be the Most Appealing Gandhi Sibling by more than half of the respondents

A quarter of the respondents do not find any of the Gandhi siblings appealing

53%

10%

12%

25%

Rahul Gandhi

Priyanka Gandhi

Varun Gandhi

No Gandhi sibling appeals to me

Base : All (2466)


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OTHER ISSUES


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35

Voting Criteria for Electing a Party

Figures in %

The main decision for voting for a party will be based on people who promise to resolve local levelissues

and Prime Ministerial candidate for the party.

Delhi and Jaipur respondents give a higher preference to people who promises to resolve local issues;

whereas respondents in Chandigarh and Bhopal take their voting decision on the basis of the Prime

Ministerial Candidate.

1

2

3

17

21

27

28

DK/CS

On the basis of religion

On the basis of caste

Personal preference for a particular party

Qualities of local Member of Parliament candidate

Prime Ministerial candidate of a party

Who promises to resolve local level issues

Base : All (2466)


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36

Biggest Concern for People in Urban India

Figures in %

The main concern for Urban India is Rising Prices and inflation followed by rampant corruption

53

26

8

4

4

3

1

1

Rising Prices and Inflation

Rampant Corruption

Lack of safety and security

Decline in quality of infrastructure

Decline in quality of life in urban cities

High cost of living

Lack of affordable housing

Limited access to affordable and quality education

Base : All (2466)


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37

Views about Political Leaders in India

Figures in %

Experience andmaturityof a leader comes out to be the most critical qualities required for governing India.

33

21

20

20

5

1

Experience and maturity of a leader are most critical

Age of leader is not important, it's their ability that makes a difference

Experienced leaders can manage India, better

Young leader is most suited to lead us

Young leaders are more talked about and are not capable enough

DK/CS

Base : All (2466)


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38

Opinion on Age-limit of Ministers in State/Centre

Figures in %

Close to half the respondents believe that the age-limit of ministers in State/Centre should not be above

60yrs.

47

17

10

5

20

2

Not above 60 yrs Not above 65 yrs Not above 70 yrs Not above 80 yrs Age not important DK/CS

Base : All (2466)

Social Media Does it play a key role in building


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39

Social MediaDoes it play a key role in building

perceptions about political leaders?

Majority of respondents believe that Social Media will play a key role in building perceptions about political

leaders.

68%

25%

7%

Yes No DK/CS

Base : All (2466)

Social Media Will it play an important role in political


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40

Social MediaWill it play an important role in political

campaigns for forthcoming elections?

Majority of respondents believe that Social Media will play an important role in political campaigns for

forthcoming elections.

73%

21%

6%

Yes No DK/CS

Base : All (2466)


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The public appears to be largely dissatisfied with the current term of the UPA Government

PriceRise closely followed by Corruption considered as the biggest failures of the government

Dissatisfaction also high with the performance of the current PM Dr. Manmohan Singh.

Perceived more as a person who is Notbold or tough in takingdecisions.

Moreover, perceptions about his honesty have taken a beating, in the light of recent scams and controversies

Majority believe that the UPA does not deserve another chance in governing India in the up-coming

elections

Among leaders across political parties, Narendra Modi enjoys the highest preference for the post of the

next Prime Minister

Price rise and inflation considered to be the key concern area by voters

Summary


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