SUMMARY OF FINDINGS From a Statewide Survey of Likely Voters

Prepared by Strategies 360

29 October 2014

TO: Interested Parties

FR: Strategies 360

RE: Colorado Statewide Poll Results

Statement of Methodology

Strategies 360 conducted a telephone survey of Colorado voters who are likely to vote in the 2014 General

Election. Respondents were randomly chosen from a list of registered voters and interviews were conducted by

trained interviewers in both English and Spanish. Interviews were conducted October 20-25, 2014. A

combination of landline and mobile phones were called to ensure greater coverage of the population sampled.

A total of 760 interviews were completed. 604 interviews were conducted among a representative sample of

likely voters statewide. An additional 156 oversample interviews were conducted among Hispanic likely voters.

The sample was weighted to ensure a proportional demographic representation of the likely 2014 electorate.

The topline margin of error is ±4.0 and the margin of error for Hispanic voters is ±6.7%.

Overview: U.S. Senate Race

Currently, Democratic Sen. Mark Udall (45%) and Republican Rep. Cory Gardner (44%) are locked in a

statistical tie, with another 8% undecided and 4% supporting a third-party candidate. Several factors contribute

to the stalemate:

A massive gender gap. Udall currently holds the same 17-point lead among women that exit polls

showed Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet holding in 2010. Meanwhile, Gardner leads among men by a

similar 17-point margin. Additionally, Udall leadsamong white women by an 11-point margin and Hispanic

women by a 37-point margin. In contrast, Gardner leads among white men by a huge 23-point margin but

is currently losing Hispanic men by 29% to 57%.

Unaffiliated voters. While partisans on both sides are similarly united around their party’s nominee (83%

of Democrats back Udall, while 80% of Republicans support Gardner), Udall has more effectively

consolidated Unaffiliated voters, which helps negate an expected GOP turnout advantage this year.

Today, Unaffiliated Coloradans prefer Udall to Gardner 48% to 37%.

Hispanics. Much of the media coverage of the U.S. Senate race has centered on Colorado’s Hispanic

vote, and for good reason. This race may very well hinge on Hispanic turnout. Currently, Gardner edges

Udall among white voters 47% to 43%. In most of the other key U.S. Senate races in 2014, that might be

enough for the Republican to secure a win. However, Colorado features the highest proportion of

Hispanic voters of any targeted U.S. Senate race this year, and Udall holds a commanding lead among

this critical voting bloc: 58% of Hispanic likely voters favor Udall while just 26% favor Gardner.

Young voters. This race remains close in part because older and middle-aged voters have yet to offer a

real edge to either candidate (voters 55 and older split 46% to 46%; voters 35 to 54 lean toward Gardner

42% to 44%). Meanwhile, Udall has built a 10-point lead among voters under 35 (46% to 36%).

Furthermore, young voters are disproportionately undecided compared to the older age cohorts. Turnout

among this group will be key to any Democratic chances of holding Colorado.

Overview: Gubernatorial Race

The race for governor also appears to be very close, with Hickenlooper narrowly leading Beauprez 46% to 43%. Another 8% are undecided and 2% say they plan to back a different candidate. The key dynamics in the gubernatorial contest, outlined below, largely mirror the U.S. Senate race—with several notable differences.

A pronounced, though slightly smaller gender gap. Hickenlooper boasts the same 17-point lead

among women that Udall holds. In contrast to Cory Gardner’s 17-point margin among men, however,

Beauprez currently wins men by 13 points.

Partisan dynamics. Hickenlooper claims a slight edge in party unity (83% of Democrats favor

Hickenlooper, 78% of Republicans support Beauprez). Yet, Hickenlooper’s appeal among Unaffiliated

voters is the real driving force behind his lead (he leads Beauprez 52% to 35%). This gap extends to

ideology as well, with Hickenlooper winning progressives 91% to 7% and moderates 57% to 30%.

Hispanics. The sizeable Democratic advantage among Hispanic voters is also present in the

gubernatorial race. While white voters effectively divide between the candidates (45% Hickenlooper, 47%

Beauprez), Hispanics prefer Hickenlooper by a 36 point margin—4 points better than Udall’s lead.

US SENATE GOVERNOR Weighted % Udall Gardner Hickenlooper Beauprez

TOTAL 100% 45% 44% 46% 43%

Men 47% 36% 53% 39% 52%

Women 53% 52% 35% 53% 36%

18-34 16% 46% 36% 50% 36%

35-54 39% 42% 44% 44% 45%

55+ 45% 46% 46% 48% 45%

Democrats 33% 83% 6% 83% 8%

Unaffiliated/Other 27% 48% 37% 52% 35%

Republicans 40% 10% 80% 12% 78%

Whites 82% 43% 47% 45% 47%

Hispanics 10% 58% 26% 61% 25%

North Front Range 26% 48% 40% 47% 44%

Plains/S. Front Range 27% 34% 54% 35% 55%

Denver Metro 34% 52% 36% 56% 33%

Western Slope 13% 41% 49% 43% 46%

Less than BA Degree 45% 40% 44% 39% 47%

BA or Post-graduate 54% 48% 44% 52% 41%