co2 - what about it

CO2

What about it?

Grégoire LesecqProject Director – Sustainable Development

2CO2 What about it ?Gregoire Lesecq

The Facts


CO2 emissions increase

Source : CDIAC

Reached 8.2 billion tons of carbon emissions in 2006

0

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1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050Year

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of C

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nLiquidSolidGasCement ProductionGas flaringTOTAL


CO2 emissions in the world

Source : CDIAC


Temperatures Increase

Source : IPCC

Global Average Surface Temperature has increased by 0.7°C over the last 50 years and continue to increase at very rapid rate.

Continued emissions would lead to further warming of 1.1°C to 6.4°C over the 21st century (best estimates: 1.8°C to 4°C)


Ice caps are melting

Source : CAN

Within 30 years North polar ice cap has decreased of 20%.


Sea Levels increase

Source : Benfield Hazards Research Centre, Rhamstorf

Sea levels are currently rising at 3.4 mm per year.

Most climate change models forecast a global sea-level rise between 0.5 to 1.4 meters by 2100.


Natural disaters increase

Source : CRED


Worldwide population increases

Global Population: 6bn 9bn by 2050

Source : UNPD


The Causes


Greenhouse Effect

The greenhouse effect is the natural process of the atmosphere letting in some of the energy

we receive from the Sun and stopping this energy being transmitted back out into space.

With water vapor, Earth's most abundant greenhouse gases are in order :

• Carbon dioxide (CO2)• Methane (CH4) • Nitrous oxide (N2O) • Fluor-Gases

Source : IPCC

Without the greenhouse effect, the average surface temperature would be about -18° Celsius.


CO2 and Temperatures are linked

Source : Leland McInnes, IPCC

Historical records show that when CO2 concentration increases then the Temperatures increase.

Relationship between CO2 concentration and temperatures

Today, CO2 concentration is about 384 ppm

Check here www.co2now.org

http://www.co2now.org/


To summarize

Source : ACIA

Worldwide Temperatures

due to

CO2 concentrations

due to

CO2 emissions

due to

Human activities


The Consequences


What will happen

An increase in global temperature may impact the balance of the world and such as:

• Oceans circulation disrupted, the Gulf Stream changes its path• Increases in the intensity of extreme weather events – hurricanes, tornados • Change of the amount and pattern of rainfall precipitation over the world • Expansion of subtropical deserts. • Increased deaths from heat waves. • Changes in agricultural yields that can lead to food shortages.• Starvation, malnutrition, and increased deaths due to food and crop shortages • Water shortages in already water-scarce areas. • Massive dislocation of worldwide wildlife and loss of habitat • Increased disease in humans and animals.• Increased emigration of population to wealthier countries• Species extinctions,


Examples of impacts

Source : WHO


Raise of the level of the oceans

Source : rising risk of climate change Mc Granahan

Example:

Yellow Sea Coastal Region


Where do we go?


Thresholds: 2°C & 350ppm CO21996

“[...] the Council believes that global average temperatures should not exceed 2 °C above pre-industrial level (pre 1900) and that therefore concentration levels lower than 550 ppm CO2 should guide global limitation and reduction efforts. [...]” (1939th Council meeting, Luxembourg, 25 June 1996)

Source : Meinshausen, Watson et al.

2009

Today most of the scientist express the need to stabilize CO2 concentration at 350 ppm to reach the 2°C target


How the “2°C target” can be reached?

Source : ETH Zurich

If CO2 emissions are halved by 2050 compared to 1990, global warming can be stabilized below two degrees.From 2000 to 2050, a maximum of 1000 billion tons of CO2 may be emitted into the atmosphere. (234 billion tons had already been flung into the atmosphere between 2000 and 2006.)

The global long-term goal would be less than 1 ton per person per year.


Long Term Target:Emission of 1 ton of CO2 per

capita per year

Source : Worldbank

In 2008, 6 tons of CO2 per person are emitted in Western Europe each year, 19 tons in North America and 3 tons in China


Source : Worldbank


CO2 & Cement


Source : World Resources Institute

CO2 & Cement

in 2005, Cement Production represents 5% (2,200 million tons) of worldwide CO2emissions per year


Cement Demand

Source : Cembureau, Lafarge, JP Morgan

The generally accepted projection of global growth in demand for cement through 2025 is that it will continue to grow by an average 5% per year to reach around 4.7 billion tons.


Cement Consumption per Capita

Source : Cembureau, JP Morgan


CO2 / Cement ratio

in 2005,

Worldwide cement Production was 2,300 million tons of cement for a total CO2 emissions of 2,200 million tons.

When you produce

1 ton of cement

you also produce 0.9 ton of CO2

NB: Majors Cement producers work to decrease this figure


Exemple : Cement Producer CO2 Emissions

Source : Cembureau, Lafarge


Cement Producer Objective


CO2 & Transports


CO2 & Transports

in 2005, Rail, Ship & other Transport represents 2.5% (1,100 million tons) of worldwide CO2emissions per year

Source : World Resources Institute


CO2 & Transports

Source : Fearnley's Review

United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) estimates that the operation of merchant ships contributes about US$380 billion in freight rates within the global economy, equivalent to about 5% of total world trade.

In the longer term, the fact that shipping is the most fuel efficient and carbon friendly form of commercial transport should work in favor of an even greater proportion of world trade being carried by sea.

World Seaborne Trade 1969-2009


CO2 & Transports

Source : NTM Sweden


CO2 Emissions of Ships

Source : National Technical University of Athens

co2 - what about it

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