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COA Modeling Results
October 1, 2013
• Quick Review of COA Splits
• Operations Not Covered by COA
• Modeling Results
COA Splits Reviewed
• COA Percentages are:
– Storage Withdrawals for In Basin Use: 75% CVP/ 25% SWP
– Export of Unstored Flows: 55% CVP/45% SWP
South Delta Export Constraints
• D1641– Sprint SJ pulse flow export constraint (1:1)– Export as % of Delta Inflow (35%/65%)
• BiOps– OMR (both USFWS and NMFS)– April-May I/E (NMFS)
• 50%/50% sharing of exports– Actual operations– Modeled under BDCP
• Frequency of South Delta constraints– increased with BiOps– projected to decrease with BDCP
High Spring Outflow Operations
• Decision Tree Criteria under Alt.4 H4 (HOS)
• Higher release contribution from SWP than COA sharing formulas indicate for outflow criteria.
• Modeled as follows:
– Reduction in CVP and SWP exports to minimum
– Additional flow from Oroville above COA requirement
– No payback of any CVP COA debt
– No assumption of purchased flows
Modeling Results
• * DWR BDO – Updated version of CALSIM (D-1485, D-1641, BiOp, Alt4-C3)
• ** CH2MHILL (NAA, Alt4-C1 (LOS), Alt4-C4(HOS))
2,616 2,529 2,4612,211 2164
2376 2,326 2,324 2250
3,4693,348 3,358
2,543 2557
32292,927 2,905
2506
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
D-1485* D-1641w/o B2*
D-1641+B2*
D-1641+BiOps*
NAA** ALT4-H1** ALT4 H3-HR25*
ALT4 H3-HR65*
ALT4-H4**
Tota
l De
live
ris
(TA
F)Total CVP/SWP Annual Average Deliveries (1922-2003)
SWP SOD Deliveries
CVP SOD Deliveries
(57%)
(47%)(44%)(44%)(42%)(46%)(47%)(42%)(43%)(43%)
(53%)
(56%)(56%)
(58%)
(54%)(53%)
(58%)(57%)
D-1485 through Alt4-HOSbreakdown by
User Classification and Year Type
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Total SWP SWP SOD M&I SWP SOD Ag Total CVP CVP SOD M&I CVP SOD Ag CVP ExchangeContract
CVP SODRefuge L2
TAF
Long-Term Average Deliveries
D-1485*
D-1641+B2*
D-1641+BiOps*
NAA (no CC)**
ALT4-H1 (no CC)**
ALT4-H4 (no CC)**
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Total SWP SWP SODM&I
SWP SOD Ag Total CVP CVP SOD M&I CVP SOD Ag CVP ExchangeContract
CVP SODRefuge L2
TAF
Wet Year Deliveries
D-1485*
D-1641+B2*
D-1641+BiOps*
NAA (no CC)**
ALT4-H1 (no CC)**
ALT4-H4 (no CC)**
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Total SWP SWP SODM&I
SWP SOD Ag Total CVP CVP SOD M&I CVP SOD Ag CVP ExchangeContract
CVP SODRefuge L2
TAF
Above Normal Year Deliveries
D-1485*
D-1641+B2*
D-1641+BiOps*
NAA (no CC)**
ALT4-H1 (no CC)**
ALT4-H4 (no CC)**
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Total SWP SWP SODM&I
SWP SOD Ag Total CVP CVP SOD M&I CVP SOD Ag CVP ExchangeContract
CVP SODRefuge L2
TAF
Below Normal Year Deliveries
D-1485*
D-1641+B2*
D-1641+BiOps*
NAA (no CC)**
ALT4-H1 (no CC)**
ALT4-H4 (no CC)**
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Total SWP SWP SODM&I
SWP SOD Ag Total CVP CVP SOD M&I CVP SOD Ag CVP ExchangeContract
CVP SODRefuge L2
TAF
Dry Year Deliveries
D-1485*
D-1641+B2*
D-1641+BiOps*
NAA (no CC)**
ALT4-H1 (no CC)**
ALT4-H4 (no CC)**
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Total SWP SWP SODM&I
SWP SOD Ag Total CVP CVP SOD M&I CVP SOD Ag CVP ExchangeContract
CVP SODRefuge L2
TAFCritical Year Deliveries
D-1485*
D-1641+B2*
D-1641+BiOps*
NAA (no CC)**
ALT4-H1 (no CC)**
ALT4-H4 (no CC)**
NAA, LOS, & HOSDelivery Splitsby Year Type
2,164
2,7882,398
2,0261,839
1,246
2,557
3,231
2,747
2,670
2,224
1,290
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Long-Term Avg Wet Above Normal Below Normal Dry Critical
Tota
l De
live
rie
s (T
AF)
NAA Delivery Split
Total SWP Deliveries
Total CVP Deliveries(54%)
(49%)
(51%)
(45%)
(55%)
(43%)
(57%)
(47%)
(53%)
(46%)
(54%)
(46%)
2,376
3,0022,761
2,3481,980
1,294
3,229
4,187
3,883
3,617
2,489
1,214
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Long-Term Avg Wet Above Normal Below Normal Dry Critical
Tota
l De
live
rie
s (T
AF)LOS Delivery Split
Total SWP Deliveries
Total CVP Deliveries
(42%)
(48%)
(56%)
(61%)
(58%)
(58%)
(58%)
(52%)
(44%)(39%)
(42%)(42%)
2,250
2,8342,599
2,1641,933
1,242
2,506
3,479
2,926
2,536
1,770
1,084
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Long-Term Avg Wet Above Normal Below Normal Dry Critical
Tota
l De
live
rie
s (T
AF)
HOS Delivery Split
Total SWP Deliveries
Total CVP Deliveries(53%)
(53%)
(52%)(46%)
(47%)(45%)
(47%)
(48%)
(54%)
(53%)
(55%)
(47%)
2,1642,376 2,250
2,557
3,229
2,506
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
NAA (no CC) ALT4-H1 (no CC) ALT4-H4 (no CC)
Tota
l De
live
rie
s (T
AF)
Long-Term Average Delivery Split
Total SWP Deliveries
Total CVP Deliveries
(54%)
(47%)
(53%)
(42%)
(58%)
(46%)
2,7883,002 2,834
3,231
4,187
3,479
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
NAA (no CC) ALT4-H1 (no CC) ALT4-H4 (no CC)
Tota
l De
live
rie
s (T
AF)
Wet Year Delivery Split
Total SWP Deliveries
Total CVP Deliveries
(54%)
(45%)
(55%)
(42%)
(58%)
(46%)
2,3982,761 2,599
2,747
3,883
2,926
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
NAA (no CC) ALT4-H1 (no CC) ALT4-H4 (no CC)
Tota
l De
live
rie
s (T
AF)
Above Normal Year Delivery Split
Total SWP Deliveries
Total CVP Deliveries
(53%)
(42%) (47%)
(53%)
(58%)
(47%)
2,0262,348
2,164
2,670
3,617
2,536
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
NAA (no CC) ALT4-H1 (no CC) ALT4-H4 (no CC)
Tota
l De
live
rie
s (T
AF)
Below Normal Year Delivery Split
Total SWP Deliveries
Total CVP Deliveries(57%)
(39%) (46%)
(54%)
(61%)
(43%)
1,8391,980 1,933
2,224
2,489
1,770
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
NAA (no CC) ALT4-H1 (no CC) ALT4-H4 (no CC)
Tota
l De
live
rie
s (T
AF)
Dry Year Delivery Split
Total SWP Deliveries
Total CVP Deliveries
(55%)
(52%)
(48%)
(44%)
(56%)
(45%)
1,246 1,294 1,242
1,290 1,214
1,084
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
NAA (no CC) ALT4-H1 (no CC) ALT4-H4 (no CC)
Tota
l De
live
rie
s (T
AF)
Critical Year Delivery Split
Total SWP Deliveries
Total CVP Deliveries
(51%)
(53%)
(47%)
(52%)
(48%)
(49%)
LOS & HOS% Delivery Change
Compared with NAA
26%
22%
39%
10%
7%
22%
0%
0%
-2%
-5%
5%4%
3%
9%
0%
0%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Total SWP SWP SOD M&I SWP SOD Ag Total CVP CVP SOD M&I CVP SOD Ag CVP ExchangeContract
CVP SODRefuge L2
Long-Term Average Deliveries (% Change from NAA)
ALT4-H1 (no CC)
ALT4-H4 (no CC)
30%
21%
53%
8%
5%
14%
0%
0%
8%
3%
20%
2%1%
3%
0%
0%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
55%
65%
Total SWP SWP SOD M&I SWP SOD Ag Total CVP CVP SOD M&I CVP SOD Ag CVP ExchangeContract
CVP SODRefuge L2
Wet Year Deliveries (% Change from NAA)
ALT4-H1 (no CC)
ALT4-H4 (no CC)
41%
38%
50%
15%
13%
31%
0% 0%
7%
4%
14%
8% 8%
17%
0% 0%0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Total SWP SWP SOD M&I SWP SOD Ag Total CVP CVP SOD M&I CVP SOD Ag CVP ExchangeContract
CVP SODRefuge L2
Above Normal Year Deliveries (% Change from NAA)
ALT4-H1 (no CC)
ALT4-H4 (no CC)
35%
31%
49%
16%
12%
41%
0% 0%
-5%-7%
0%
7%
3%
18%
0% 0%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Total SWP SWP SOD M&I SWP SOD Ag Total CVP CVP SOD M&I CVP SOD Ag CVP ExchangeContract
CVP SODRefuge L2
Below Normal Year Deliveries (% Change from NAA)
ALT4-H1 (no CC)
ALT4-H4 (no CC)
12% 12%11%
8%
4%
23%
0% 0%
-20% -20%-21%
5%4%
15%
0% 0%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Total SWP SWP SOD M&I SWP SOD Ag Total CVP CVP SOD M&I CVP SOD Ag CVP ExchangeContract
CVP SODRefuge L2
Dry Year Deliveries (% Change from NAA)
ALT4-H1 (no CC)
ALT4-H4 (no CC)
-6%
-4%
-11%
4%5%
23%
0% 0%
-16% -16% -16%
0% 0%
-2%
0%
0%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Total SWP SWP SOD M&I SWP SOD Ag Total CVP CVP SOD M&I CVP SOD Ag CVP ExchangeContract
CVP SODRefuge L2
Critical Year Deliveries (% Change from NAA)
ALT4-H1 (no CC)
ALT4-H4 (no CC)
NAA, LOS, & HOSComparisons under
CC, SLR, and HR
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Total SWP SWP SODM&I
SWP SOD Ag Total CVP CVP SOD M&I CVP SOD Ag CVP ExchangeContract
CVP SODRefuge L2
TAF
Long-Term Average Deliveries
NAA (no CC)
ALT4-H1 (no CC)
ALT4-H4 (no CC)
NAA (ELT)
ALT4-H1 (ELT)
ALT4-H4 (ELT)
NAA (LLT)
ALT4-H1 (LLT)
ALT4-H4 (LLT)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Total SWP SWP SOD M&I SWP SOD Ag Total CVP CVP SOD M&I CVP SOD Ag CVP ExchangeContract
CVP SODRefuge L2
TAF
Wet Year Deliveries
NAA (no CC)
ALT4-H1 (no CC)
ALT4-H4 (no CC)
NAA (ELT)
ALT4-H1 (ELT)
ALT4-H4 (ELT)
NAA (LLT)
ALT4-H1 (LLT)
ALT4-H4 (LLT)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Total SWP SWP SODM&I
SWP SOD Ag Total CVP CVP SOD M&I CVP SOD Ag CVP ExchangeContract
CVP SODRefuge L2
TAF
Above Normal Year Deliveries
NAA (no CC)
ALT4-H1 (no CC)
ALT4-H4 (no CC)
NAA (ELT)
ALT4-H1 (ELT)
ALT4-H4 (ELT)
NAA (LLT)
ALT4-H1 (LLT)
ALT4-H4 (LLT)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Total SWP SWP SODM&I
SWP SOD Ag Total CVP CVP SOD M&I CVP SOD Ag CVP ExchangeContract
CVP SODRefuge L2
TAF
Below Normal Year Deliveries
NAA (no CC)
ALT4-H1 (no CC)
ALT4-H4 (no CC)
NAA (ELT)
ALT4-H1 (ELT)
ALT4-H4 (ELT)
NAA (LLT)
ALT4-H1 (LLT)
ALT4-H4 (LLT)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Total SWP SWP SODM&I
SWP SOD Ag Total CVP CVP SOD M&I CVP SOD Ag CVP ExchangeContract
CVP SODRefuge L2
TAF
Dry Year Deliveries
NAA (no CC)
ALT4-H1 (no CC)
ALT4-H4 (no CC)
NAA (ELT)
ALT4-H1 (ELT)
ALT4-H4 (ELT)
NAA (LLT)
ALT4-H1 (LLT)
ALT4-H4 (LLT)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Total SWP SWP SODM&I
SWP SOD Ag Total CVP CVP SOD M&I CVP SOD Ag CVP ExchangeContract
CVP SODRefuge L2
TAFCritical Year Deliveries
NAA (no CC)
ALT4-H1 (no CC)
ALT4-H4 (no CC)
NAA (ELT)
ALT4-H1 (ELT)
ALT4-H4 (ELT)
NAA (LLT)
ALT4-H1 (LLT)
ALT4-H4 (LLT)