coalition building and power reconfiguration in post-sbyjk indonesia
DESCRIPTION
a brief description of coalition building in Indonesia after the 2009 electionsTRANSCRIPT
Coalition Building and Power Reconfiguration in Indonesia After the 2009 Parliamentary Elections
THE RACE TO ISTANA MERDEKA
Three new rules:
MPs are determined by votes not party rank
Parliamentary threshold: 2.5% votes
Candidacy of president: 25% votes or 20% parliament seatsfrom a party or a coalition of parties
Results: 9 parties are going to the parliament
11.9%
7.9%3.4%
2.3%
9.5%
1.8%
1.06%
4.6%
2.8%
Votes Transfers 2004-2009Source: CIRUS Surveyor Group
PD
PDIPPAN
Golkar
PKB
PPP
PKSFirstVoters
Gerindra
Hanura
Why Democrat Party Wins?
The SBY FactorGood Image: LeadershipIntellectualism Nationalist religiousReformasi’s Suharto
Organized Campaign
Political consultant:FoxIndonesia
2nd largest campaign fund:S$ 35 millions
“Pro-people” policies
Cash Transfer Program (BLT)
Lower Oil Prices
School subsidies
Coalition Building ProcessPhase 1
PDPDIP
PAN
Golkar
PKB PPP PKS
Gerindra
Hanura
Popularity > 50%
Coalition Building ProcessPhase 2
PDPDIP
PKB
PKSGerindra
Hanura
“Grand Coalition”
PPP PAN
GolkarSBY JK Divorced
Coalition Building ProcessPhase 3
PDPDIP
Golkar
PKB
PKS Gerindra
Hanura
JK-Win declared“Faster is Better”
PPP
PANMegawati vs. Prabowo
Coalition Building ProcessPhase 4
PD
Golkar
Gerindra
Hanura
“Grand Coalition”?
PDIP
PANPPP
PKB
PKS
??
? ?SBY Mega flirting
Coalition Building ProcessPhase 5
PD
Golkar
Gerindra
Hanura
PDIP
PANPPP
PKB
PKS
??
?
SBY’s running mate
?
Three couples to compete
Market Economy
Susilo B. YudhoyonoBoediono “SBY-No”
Jusuf KallaWiranto“JK-Win”
Megawati SukarnoputriPrabowo Subianto
“Mega-Bowo”
Market Socialism Anti-neoliberal
Three couples to compete
Market EconomyPolitical Islam: yes
Susilo B. YudhoyonoBoediono “SBY-No”
Jusuf KallaWiranto“JK-Win”
Megawati SukarnoputriPrabowo Subianto
“Mega-Bowo”
Market SocialismPolitical Islam: yes
Anti-neoliberalPolitical Islam: yes
Possibly Two Rounds
Second Round
Votes Transfer
thanks.