coface country risk conference 2013 are the emerging middle classes the key to success? the middle...
TRANSCRIPT
COFACE COUNTRY RISK CONFERENCE 2013
Are the emerging middle classes the key to success?The middle class and political demandsin Russia
> Natalia ZUBAREVICH,Professor of Moscow state university, Director of regional program of independent institute for social policy
1
/
Russia: GDP and money income growth rate, (1998 = 100 %)
2COFACE COUNTRY RISK CONFERENCE 2013
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
GDP Money income
20% population with the highest income
- 350%
20% population with the highest income
- 350%
/
Middle classes criteria: low consistency,2011, % households
3COFACE COUNTRY RISK CONFERENCE 2013
Professional status
21%
Professional status
21%
Income and property
28%
Income and property
28%
Self-identification
25%
Self-identification
25%
10%10%
9%9%
10%10%
5%5%
GGS survey - 2011: 11,261 households
Source: IISP
Core of the middle class (3 criteria) only 5%
households
2 criteria + 3d(above low class)19%
Core of the middle class (3 criteria) only 5%
households
2 criteria + 3d(above low class)19%
/
Russia: Socio-economic stratification,%
4COFACE COUNTRY RISK CONFERENCE 2013
1923
24
12 16 19
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2004 2007 2011
middle classMC periphery below MCLC peripherylow class
Source: IISP
/
Moscow 40% more 2011
Moscow 40% more 2011
Entrepreneurs share decline: 2007 – 13% 2011 – 11%
Entrepreneurs share decline: 2007 – 13% 2011 – 11%
MC: 25-49 years old singles and couples MC: 25-49 years old singles and couples
Middle class: spatial, labor and age structure
5COFACE COUNTRY RISK CONFERENCE 2013
MC share of all households, %
Source: IISP
1612
4
1916
8
30
21
11
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
regional centers other cities and towns countryside
2004 2007 2011
100%
23
36
11
23
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
not working
both sectors
entrepreneurs
market sector
budget sector
womenmen
3
2
1
-450 -300 -150 0 150 300 450
less 29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
more 70
33
2211
/
20
11
9
108
5
26
12
31%
Russia-1big cities
31-35%
Russia-3small towns
and rural periphery
Russia-2medium sized industrial cities
Spatial structure of Russian population, % Center-periphery model
6COFACE COUNTRY RISK CONFERENCE 2013
cities 1 million more
500 thous.-1 million
250 – 500 thousand
100 – 250 thousand
50-100 thousand
50 thousand less
small urban settlements
rural settlements
Population
Ru
ssia
-1R
uss
ia-2
Ru
ssia
-3