DEVELOPMENT OF A FRAMEWORK FOR AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS.

A ONE - DAY SEMINAR HELD AT

IFSERAR, UNAAB, ABEOKUTA ON TUESDAY 14TH JUNE, 2011.

COLLECTION AND DISSEMINATION OF DEMOGRAPHIC STATISTICS IN RELATION TO FOOD SECURITY.

BY YOMI OGUNLEYENATIONAL POPULATION COMMISSION,ABEOKUTA, OGUN STATE.

INTRODUCTION

There are two important issues

• Demographic Statistics

• Food security

What is Demography?

• Science of human population.• Concerned with size, distribution, structure and

change of populations.- Size : The number of persons in the population.- Distribution: arrangement over space and time.- Structure: Distribution among its sex and age

grouping.- Change: Growth or decline of total population.

COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE

Birth Death Migrations

Other Population characteristics Social EconomicMarital Status EmploymentFamily Status OccupationEducation Industry

STATISTICSis a science that relates to the collection, organisation, processing, presentation, analysing and interpretation of qualitative data and to drawing of conclusion so as to make good decisions.

SOURCES OF DATA

1. Census2. Sample Surveys3. Vital Registration4. Administrative Records5. Population Registers

BASIS OF ENUMERATION De-facto – List all persons present

in the household, that is counting at sight.

De- Jure – List all persons usually resides in the household whether present or not.

CENSUS Census is defined by United Nations (UN) as the total process of collecting, compiling, evaluating, publishing and disseminating demographic, economic and social data pertaining at a specified time, to all persons in a country or in a well – delimited part of it.

CENSUS PROCEDURES Government accent and Legal backing. Census Technical Group. Data Users Conference. Enumeration Area Demarcation. Design of Census Questionnaire. Pre-tests and Trial Census. Training of Census Functionaries. Logistics Arrangements. Public Enlightenment. Census Enumeration. Post Enumeration Survey. Data Processing and Analysis. Publishing and Dissemination.

SURVEYThis is a situation where a representative sample of the population is scientifically selected for observation and the result is used to draw inference for the total population.

SURVEYS CONDUCTED IN THE PAST

1981 – 82 Nigeria Fertility Survey (NFS),

1990, 1999, 2008 – Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS).

1994, 1999, 2007 – National Sentinel Survey.

2010 – National Education Data Survey.

VITAL REGISTRATIONIt is the continuous, permanent and compulsory recording of the occurence and characteristics of Vital events as defined in and backed by Acts and regulations in accordance with the requirements of a country.It deals primarily with events that affects the civil status of the individual. Such events include Births, Deaths, Stillbirths, Marriages and Divorces etc.

USES OF VITAL REGISTRATION DATA

Provides additional data independent of Census on measures and patterns of fertility and mortality.

Serve as checks on Census data. Useful for population projections. For planning. Monitoring and Evaluation of

Population Policy. Health planning – Morbidity.

Administrative Records- Hospital records- Voters Registration- Religious Records- Demographic year book- Others.

• Population Register- Common in advanced countries e.g Sweden,

Netherlands and Denmark.

DISSEMINATION

Reports are published.Launched andDistributed to all Stakeholders.

FOOD SECURITYFood security happens when all people at all times have enough food that is:

1. Affordable.2. Available.3. Accessible.4. Safe and healthy.5. Culturally acceptable.6. Meet specific dietary needs.7. Obtained in a dignified manner.

CAUSES OF FOOD INSECURITY

Neglect of agriculture – poor funding Migration out of rural areas. Poverty. Land Fragmentation. Poor infrastructure. Climatic change – Desert encroachment, Flooding,

Global warming. Natural Disasters – Earthquakes, Volcanic eruption. Corruption. Traditional Farming Techniques Communal Clashes.

FEAR OF FOOD INSECURITY

At the end of the 18th Century, Thomas Malthus concluded that, if unchecked, population would be subject to exponential growth. He feared that population growth would tend to outstrip growth in food production, leading to ever-increasing famine and poverty.

Nigeria is by far the most populous country in Africa and is among the ten most populous countries in the world. In fact, there is a saying that one out of four African is a Nigerian.

• 1991 Census figure: 88,992,220• 2006 Census figure: 140,431,790• Growth rate: 3.18%• Doubling time: About 22 years.

Sex ratio: 103 Population: 0 – 14 yrs = 45% Age Dependency Ratio: 93.2% Mean Household Size: 4.9% Total Fertility Rate: 5.7%

* The age structure of the Census data indicates that the population is young. Population age 0 – 14 years is about 45%.

* In addition, there is substantial proportion of women (23%) in the child bearing age of 15 – 49 years.

* The population therefore, has an in-built potential for rapid growth through natural increase.

* This implies an increasing demand for maternal and child care services, educational and of course food.

World Population Trend

• The world is facing a potential crisis in terms of food security.

• The challenge is to produce and supply enough, safe and nutritious food in a sustainable way for a growing global population which is projected to reach 9billion by the year 2050.

1st billion was about year 1800. 2nd billion was about 130years

later – 1930. 3rd billion in 1960. 4th billion was 15years later –

1975. 5th billion was 12years later –

1987. Presently it is about 7billion.

Each year, world population increases by about 80million.

While population is a natural resources, if its growth rate is not properly managed, it could be one of the constraints to the effort of government to fulfil its commitment to improve the quality of life and standards of living of the people.

In the past two decades, population growth has outstripped the social and economic development of the country.

G.D.P per capital (in real terms) for example remains lower now than it was in 1980. About 70% of Nigerians live below poverty line.

The United Nations Human Development Index ranked Nigeria among 25 poorest nations of the world.

The consequences and implications of rapid population growth will need to be considered in the national effort to achieve sustainable Food Security.

Meeting the Challenge

Meeting the challenge of food security will require multi disciplinary research which will bring together researchers from all the relevant disciplines and encourage them to work with the agriculture and food industries, policy makers and international partners.

This multi-agency action will develop coordinated programme of research that can be translated rapidly into sustainable practice for food security.

MANY THANKS!