columbia presentation on india virtus global partners
TRANSCRIPT
India’s Position in the Global Economy
420 Lexington Avenue . Suite 300 . New York, NY 10170 . 212-297-6107 . www.virtusglobal.com
October 11th, 2008
Presented by
Anil Kumar, Managing Director; email: [email protected]
� While India’s growth will slow down in the short-term, it will emerge as
one of the strongest economies in the world in the long-term.
� India’s favorable demographics and service-led economy creates long-
term investment opportunities in several industry sectors.
� In order to realize its potential, India needs to continue improving its
governance, control inflation, introduce credible fiscal policies, liberalize
Key Messages
Page 1
financial markets and increase trade with its neighbors.
1. India’s Growth Potential
2. Indian Economy and Role of Reforms
Page 2
3. Analysis of Key Industry Segments
5. Doing Business in India – Strategic and Practical Considerations
4. Globalization of Indian Companies
� Liquidity drying up and frozen
credit markets� A massive “deleveraging effect”
� Re-pricing of risk
� Unwinding of structured credit
instruments
� Crisis of confidence in banking
and savings
The credit crisis is creating a global financial turmoil
Page 3
and savings� Reversion to more solid notions of
collaterals
� Bailouts of institutions considered “too
big to fail” and the associated moral
hazard
� Serious potential deflationary
cycle in the US that could
become a global contagion� Novel regulatory regimes and a new
paradigm for financial institutions
� Lack of leverage in India
� Very small market for structured credit instruments in India
�Overly conservative regulators in India
However, India will not suffer a systemic breakdown
Page 6
�High savings ratio and robust balance sheets
�Productivity improvements achieved last few years
�Evolution of a strong middle class
Last few years of structural growth creates a cushion
Page 8
�Consumer spending has been affected by inflation
�Corporate spending has been slow to due lack of fund raising options
� Infrastructure spending might decrease due to foreign investors pulling
back
India’s growth will moderate in the next 2 years
Page 11
�Risk-averse culture and strong regulatory framework will attract global
capital post credit-crisis
�Demographic dividend will boost domestic markets and create long term
growth
�Service led economy will create competitive edge.
� India will play a greater role in the future geopolitical economy
India will emerge much stronger in the long-run
Page 14
� India will play a greater role in the future geopolitical economy
� India has relatively strong financial underpinnings and could become a
strong investment destination for the new power brokers - middle-east,
SWF, hedge funds.
India labor force is young
Page 15
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1. India’s Growth Potential
2. Indian Economy and Role of Reforms
Page 19
3. Analysis of Key Industry Segments
5. Doing Business in India – Strategic and Practical Considerations
4. Globalization of Indian Companies
It has become easier to invest into India
Up to 100% under Automatic Route in all sectors except a small negative list
More sectors opened ; Equity caps raised in many other sectors Procedures simplified
2000
2000 on
Page 26
Allowed selectively up to 40%
Up to 74/51/50% in 112 sectors under theAutomatic Route 100% in some sectors
FDI up to 51% allowed under the Automatic route in 35 Priority sectors
Pre 1991
1991
1997
FDI Policy Liberalization
India has consistently improved over the last 17 years
Progressive Reforms Process
Strong Economic Environment
•Opportunities to enter new sectors as the reforms process opensthem up for foreign direct investment (FDI). For example, SingleBrand Retail, Life and General Insurance
•Growing GDP and FDI, falling rates of interest and maturing capitalmarkets creates private equity investment opportunity ininfrastructure, telecom, cement, toll roads, bridges, manufacturing,technology, and pharmaceuticals
•Growing consumer population expands markets across sectors
Page 28
Large Domestic Market
Availability of Resources
•Growing consumer population expands markets across sectors
•Opportunities to use India as a test market for clinical trials anddeveloping products for the global market
•Growing through acquisitions of strong Indian companies acrosssectors
•Availability of raw material and highly skilled workforce
•Opportunities to set up manufacturing bases in India, both for fulfillinglocal demand, as well as for developing a global sourcing hub
•Opportunities to set up R&D, software development and engineeringcenters that cater to their global operations
•Opportunities to set up centers for business process outsourcingLeveraging India as a source of high quality managerial talent
India has good growth potential
0
20
40
60
80
100
India Russia Vietnam Ukraine China Chile Latvia
GR
DI S
co
re
2007 Global Retail Development Index (GRDI) 2007 Global Services Location Index
3.3
2.6
3.2
2.8
2.9
3.2
1.5
1.8
1.2
1.3
2.3
2.3
1.1
1.5
1.6
2
1.4
1.4
Indonesia
Brazil
Thailand
Malaysia
China
India
Financial structure People and skill availablity
Business environment
Services sector attracted interest of major global players and large investments are pumped in it
… India is the top destination in the AT Kearney Global Retail Development Index (2007)
Page 29
Projected GDP Growth Rates for Select Upcoming Economies
0
2
4
6
8
2005-10 2010-15 2015-20 2020-25 2025-30 2030-35 2035-40 2040-45 2045-50
GD
P G
row
th R
ate
(%
)
Brazil China India Russia
AT Kearney has placed India as the most preferable destination for Services sector (2007)…
pumped in it
India is expected to outperform its rivals in the BRIC, in terms of GDP growth rate, from 2015 onwards…
Source: Goldman Sachs, “Dreaming with the BRICs”
Foreign Direct Investments have increased rapidly
India is ranked
second in AT
Kearney’s FDI
confidence index
(2007)
FDI Inflow - India: 2001-08
4,2223,134 2,634
3,755
5,546
15,730
12,699
0
4,500
9,000
13,500
18,000
US
D M
illio
n
185 percent
Increase
Page 30
Net FII into India: 2001-07
1.80.6
10.0 10.29.4
6.7
16.1
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08
US
D B
illio
n
149 percent
Increase
FDI inflow for the
period 2006-07
witnessed a growth
of 185 percent over
the same period last
year
0
2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 (till
December)
* FII growth momentum was restricted because of Sub Prime Crisis in 2007-08
India’s standard of living has increased
Page 31
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Big challenges remain in the path to development
� India could be 40 times bigger by 2050.
� To achieve this, India needs to implement many changes.
� India needs to improve its governance, control inflation, introduce credible
fiscal policy, liberalize financial markets and increase trade with its
neighbors.
Page 35
neighbors.
� It also needs to significantly raise its basic educational standards and
increase the quality and quantity of its universities.
� India needs to boost agricultural productivity, improve its infrastructure and
environmental quality.
1. India’s Growth Potential
2. Indian Economy and Role of Reforms
Page 36
3. Analysis of Key Industry Segments
5. Doing Business in India – Strategic and Practical Considerations
4. Globalization of Indian Companies
Investment Opportunities
� Information Technology/ Business Process Outsourcing
Infrastructure� Power Generation
� Roads & Ports
� Supply Chain/ Logistics
Page 37
Services
� Information Technology/ Business Process Outsourcing
� Financial Services
� Entertainment, Media, Travel & Tourism
Manufacturing� Auto Components
� Power Distribution Equipments
� Metals and Mining
• Leading private equity investor since 1971
• More than USD 35 billion of assets under management and has nine offices around
the world.
• Active portfolio of more than 125 companies.
• Since inception, it has invested more than USD 31 billion in approximately 600
companies in 30 countries
Warburg Pincus - one the leading private equity investor in the US
Page 41
• Investments across a range of sectors, including financial services, healthcare,
industrial, technology, media and telecommunications, energy, consumer and
retail and real estate.
• Offices in Beijing, Frankfurt, Hong Kong, London, Mumbai, New York, San
Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo
• Over a twelve-year period, funds sponsored by Warburg Pincus have invested
more than USD 2 billion in India in over 15 companies
Warburg Pincus investments in India
Industry Investment year size
Telecom Bharti Tele-Ventures 1999 $300 mn
BPO WNS 2002 $70 mn
Manufacturing Amtek Auto 2006 $65 mn
Housing Sintex
Page 42
Housing Sintex 2005 NA
Power Equipments Havells India 2007 $110 mn
Hospitality Lemon Treee Hotels 2006 $70 mn
Media Lakshya Media 2008 $65 mn
Healthcare Max India 2005 $35 mn
Ports Gangavaram Ports 2006 NA
Energy Moser Baer 2000 $62 mn
Financial Services ICICI Bank 2007 NA
� In early 1999, Warburg Pincus analyzed likely changes in India’s regulatory
environment and tariff policies.
� After considerable due diligence conducted on three continents, Warburg Pincus
identified significant opportunities in the Indian telecommunications sector and
invested $300 million in Bharti.
� Warburg assisted Bharti with acquisitions of additional cellular properties and
with securing a strategic partnership with Singapore Telecom, which subsequently
Case- Study – Warburg’s investment in Bharti Telecom
Page 43
with securing a strategic partnership with Singapore Telecom, which subsequently
committed $600 million in capital to Bharti.
� The company was listed on Indian stock exchanges in February 2002. Now known
as Bharti Airtel, the company has a market capitalization in excess of $35 billion
and is a dominant player in the Indian telecommunications market.
� Today, Bharti Airtel is structured into three individual strategic business units
(SBU’s) - mobile services, telemedia services (ATS) & enterprise services. The
mobile services group provides GSM mobile services across India in 23 telecom
circles, while the ATS business group provides broadband & telephone services in
94 cities
� India is the fifth largest telecom services market in the world; US$23
billion revenues in FY 2007
� 290 million subscribers - 39 million fixed lines and 251 million wireless -
(February 2008)
� The telecom subscriber base has grown at about 40% p.a. over the last
four years
Growth of the telecom industry in India
Page 47
� Projected growth of 27% p.a. to reach 500 million subscribers by March
2010
� Over 8 million new users are added every month – mostly in wireless
� Real interest rates too high to sustain
� Large market – double edged sword
� Increasing GDP growth
� Democratic government
� Growing middle class consumers
India’s macro factors in play in 1999 to 2001
Page 49
� Growing middle class consumers
� Majority of population between 18 – 25 years of age
� Strong education system
� IT boom
� National Telecom Policy encouraging� Domestic Private Investment
� Foreign Direct Investment
� Competition to Fixed Line Service providers� High Installation Fees
� Order Backlog
� Mobile telephone considered as a status symbol
Indian telecom industry – positive macro factors in play in 1999 - 2001
Page 50
� Markets were price elastic
� No company had national presence
� Telecommunication is a pre-requisite for growth
� Lack of regulatory clarity
� Economic viability of telecommunication projects
� Restriction on licenses
� Monthly fixed license fee to government
� No investor interest – No clarity on exit route
Indian telecom industry – negative macro factors in play in 1999 - 2001
Page 51
� Bharti had presence only in North India
� India growth story
� Long term investment
� Financial & operational efficiencies
� Working with management
� Seek strategic partner
Warburg’s initial strategy
Page 52
� Seek strategic partner
� Accelerated growth & competitiveness
Ten Tips to Successful Due Diligence
1. Know the mindset of the target company
Comprehensive information required for the due diligence process is not readily
available with the Indian companies due to lack of detailed management information
system. For example, detailed schedule of margins by product and by customer may
not be easy to come by with these companies. The forecasting methodologies of such
small and medium sized Indian companies are not very robust, often leading to
simplistic projections. The forecasts tend to be aggressive, without a track record to
boot.
Page 55
boot.
2. Understand key differences in doing a due diligence in western countries and
in India
Going in for a due diligence process with the right expectations is a critical success
factor for US investors. The quality of financial statements, financial infrastructure
and business and business process will be lower and less explicit than western
investors are accustomed to. This results in the need to explore more risk areas and
take more time for the due diligence.
Ten Tips to Successful Due Diligence
3. Listen for the word “N0'”:
Asian culture is less direct in some respects. Western investors rarely hear theirIndian counterparts say “no” even though they do not mean “yes''.
4. Look out for Hidden Skeletons:
Inadequate disclosures impede the ability to access critical information that mightalter the investor's perception with regard to the value of the company, environmentissues and aggressive tax positions among others.
Page 56
issues and aggressive tax positions among others.
5. Evaluate Corporate Governance:
Companies are slowly realizing the importance of corporate governance and some ofthe leading organizations are benchmarking to global standards. Some others aremoving towards improvement.
6. Keep an Eye on Related Party Transactions:
As a hangover of the licensing raj, Indian businesses are generally structured asconglomerates or group businesses which create extensive related party transactions.
Ten Tips to Successful Due Diligence
7. Avoid Legal Minefields
Weak corporate governance is compounded with tardy legal systems where disputeresolution often remains a distant goal.
8. Communicate with Care
In any transaction, communication must be handled with utmost care. Sensitivity toIndian culture with regard to dealing with the owners who are also the entrepreneursof the company will help to make the venture more rewarding.
Page 57
of the company will help to make the venture more rewarding.
9. Manage the Control Freaks
It is often observed that founding members of a start-up will refuse to give up controland settle for a minority ownership stake (a common condition for many start-ups inexchange for Private Equity funding).
10. Think Global, Act Local
Firms with a presence in India have a distinct edge due to their wide networks ofcontacts and experience of the Indian business environment.
� Betting on aggressive forecasts
� Loss making business
� Entering as a minority stakeholder
� Ambiguity in government policies
Information gaps and challenges facing Warburg
Page 58
� Fragmented sector – cost efficiency
� Mobile telephony was still a luxury among Indians
� Business model based on cost-volume-pricing
� Business Growth Opportunities
� High Interest Costs
� Confidence on Management
� India’s Demographic Pattern
India’s growth story
Page 59
� Open Economy
� Global Presence
Think Big
BT- Initial Suboptimal Strategy – Bell North
WP -Change in Plans – Pan India Presence
Growth Plans
BT - Management Approach to build business from scratch
Warburg’s growth strategy for Bharti
Page 60
BT - Management Approach to build business from scratch
WP - Time sensitive: Growth by Acquisition
Restructuring the Corporate Structure
BT- Adhoc structure
WP – Buy back stakes to reduce conflicts of interest
Inclusion of Strategic Partners - SINGTEL
� The deal equaled one – third of total PE investments in India till date
� PE investments in India were only 0.2% of total GDP
� FDI was only about 1% of GDP
� First Investment done banking upon the “India Growth Story”
� Foreign exchange fluctuation was a matter of concern
Warburg’s investment in Bharti was a landmark transaction for India
Page 61
� Foreign exchange fluctuation was a matter of concern
� Investment in unorganized sector
� Investment in a privately owned company
1. India’s Growth Potential
2. Indian Economy and Role of Reforms
Page 70
3. Analysis of Key Industry Segments
5. Doing Business in India – Strategic and Practical Considerations
4. Globalization of Indian Companies
Indian companies acquiring overseas
2.71.5
2.77.4 9.4
25.9
0.10.6
1.7
4.4
21.2
38.4
3.93.2
3.9
10.7
16.8
28.4
1,028.1 1,087.41,628.2 1,976.8
3,935.0 4,520.0
0.7%0.5% 0.5%
1.2%
2.1%
1.2%
1.0
10.0
100.0
1,000.0
10,000.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007*
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
USD billion
Share of India in global market
Page 71
Inbound Outbound Domestic
Total Value of Global Deals % Share of india
23
40
34
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2006H1 2007H1 2008H1
US-bound Transactions 2006H1 – 2008H1Industry Breakdown of US-bound Transactions in 2008H1
� In the first half of 2008, Indian companies accounted for a total of 34 US-bound acquisitions
with a cumulative transaction value of over $5.1 billion. This represents a 15% decrease in
terms of volume and a 30% drop in value compared to the first half of 2007.
� Deals less than $100 million accounted for over 90% of the total transaction volume but only
10% of the reported transaction value. Whereas, it was the opposite for deals greater than
$1 billion in size, which comprised 10% of the total volume and 90% of the reported value.
No transactions were reported in the $100 million to $1 billion range. This reflects the
dichotomy facing Indian companies – well-capitalized large Indian companies are buying
value assets for cheap while mid-size firms are adopting a cautious approach.
Summary of US-bound acquisitions by Indian companies in 2008
Page 72
value assets for cheap while mid-size firms are adopting a cautious approach.
� Mega-size deals included Tata Chemicals acquisition of General Chemicals for $1 billion,
GMR Energy’s purchase of 50% equity in Intergen for $1.1 billion and Sterlite Industries
announced bid for Asarco valued at $2.6 billion.
� IT/ITES remains the most acquisitive industry capturing over 50% share of the total US-
bound transactions by volume, followed by life sciences (10%), metals & mining (6%) and
agriculture (6%). Other industries accounted for less than 3% each in terms of volume.
� Over 70% of the transactions involved acquisition of 100% stock for cash consideration.
These transactions generally had an earn-out structure, where a portion of the deal value is
paid on future milestones.
� High debt-to-equity ratio and low earnings in the US is creating value-buying
opportunities for Indian companies.
� Increasing competitive pressures, emerging global opportunities and the decline
in overseas trade and investment barriers are encouraging Indian companies to
seek acquisitions in the US.
� Need to gain scale in terms of size, product offerings and geography.
� Change from a cost-centric approach to a profit-margin focus.
Cross border acquisition trends
Page 73
� Change from a cost-centric approach to a profit-margin focus.
� Need to climb up the value chain
� Large consumer markets, transparent business processes, robust legal
environment, advanced technologies, skills and knowledge capital.
� As US markets tend to be mature and saturated, it often proves difficult
for Indian companies to gain market share without acquisitions.
� Easy access to the world’s largest market and customer base through
marketing and distribution channels of the acquired company.
US-bound acquisitions are propelled by several factors
Page 74
� Increased competition within the domestic markets.
� The global slowdown has created opportunities to buy US-based
companies at lower valuations.
� Acquisition of specific skills, knowledge and technology.
Case Study – Gitanjali’s acquisition of Samuels
Gitanjali Gems Ltd., a DTC sightholder, is one of the largest integrated diamond and jewelrymanufacturers and retailers in India. Its operations include sourcing of rough diamonds fromprimary and secondary source suppliers in the international market, cutting and polishing therough diamonds for export to its international markets, and the sale of diamonds and otherjewelry through Gitanjali's retail operations in India, as well as in international markets.
Gitanjali’s objective of an acquisition in the US was:�Global vertical integration to create higher margins�Direct access to consumers in the US�Find an ideal platform for future growth
Page 75
�Find an ideal platform for future growth
Samuels operates 97 retail jewelry stores in 18 states and also sells jewelry online. Measuredby the number of retail locations, Samuels is the tenth largest specialty retailer of finejewelry in the United States.
Samuels’ acquisition was in line with Gitanjali's objective to conform to a vertically integratedmodel, one that benefits from all the efficiencies that are realized through control of theentire supply chain, inclusive of retail.
Samuel’s was a good fit based on potential synergies
Good Strategic Fit�The quality of merchandise, the format of stores, the focus on branding makes Samuel’s good strategic fit.
�100 stores provides good geographic footprint
�Samuel’s could be good platform for future bolt-on acquisitions
�Gross margin improvement provide the ONLY opportunity for
profitability
�
Page 76
Potential Growth Opportunities
Risks
�Improve sales through focus on off-mall stores, branding, premium
merchandising
�Optimize SG&A through reducing per store employee count to 5
�Replace/ improve ADS private label program to improve sale
approvals.
�It might take significant time to implement gross margin improvements
�It will be operationally challenging to improve profitability at store level and improve price points
�The management seems good with operations but has faced challenge creating profits
Transaction integration plan
� Increase Same Store Sales and Contribution� Increased focus on designer jewelry collections
� Realize opportunity in bridal and loose diamonds
� Gross Merchandise Margin Expansion
� Renovation/ Relocation of Existing Stores to improve merchandise presentation
� Open more Samuel’s Diamond Stores � (off-mall location, currently about 11 of these stores)
� Capitalize on more effective marketing efforts� Optimize use of proprietary customer list
Page 77
� Optimize use of proprietary customer list
� Increase radio and billboard advertising
� Increase awareness through cable tv placements
Action plan post transaction
Improve Sales:
� Target 1-3% price point increase through introduction of proprietary designer
collections.
� Increase brand value through improved marketing, external PR agency, higher ad
spends and refined message.
� Terminate ADS private label credit program to RCS credit card program to improve
customer credit approval rates.
Page 78
customer credit approval rates.
Improve Gross Margins:
� Improve margins from current 47.2 % to 51% in 24 months through direct sourcing of
diamonds as follows:— 0 – 6 months : 0% gross margin improvement
— 6 – 12 months: 1.5 % gross margin improvement
— 12 – 18 months: 1.5% gross margin improvement
— 18 – 24 months: 1 % gross margin improvement
� Enhanced Sales Associate Productivity through more training programs.
Financials
Optimize Selling, general, and administrative expenses
� Reduce average store employee count from 6 to 5.
� Close non-profitable stores
� Store profitability in 2006:— Stores that lost < $10,000 = five stores
— Stores that lost between $10,000 and $50,000 = four stores
— Stores that lost > $50,000 = seven stores
� Increase advertising spending by 15 -20% to focus on branding.
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� Increase advertising spending by 15 -20% to focus on branding.
Rationalize product and customer portfolio
� Discontinue unprofitable product lines
� Reduce number of skus
1. India’s Growth Potential
2. Indian Economy and Role of Reforms
Page 80
3. Analysis of Key Industry Segments
5. Doing Business in India – Strategic and Practical Considerations
4. Globalization of Indian Companies
How can I create an India Entry Strategy?
Do I need to leverage India?
Strategic Framework
• Sustainable Advantages
• Changing Global Economy
• Future Growth of India
• Organization Design
• Finding Partners
• Implementation
Page 81
How do I grow my operations in India?
How do I manage risks in India?
• Implementation
• Statutory Compliance
• Due Diligence
• Legal Aspects
• Risk Management
• Culture & Communication
• Creating Incentives
• Monitoring Investment
Stage 1: Create Strategy
•Market Study/ Industry Assessment
•Competitive
Stage 2: Design Phase
•Operating Model•Organization Design•Partner Selection
Stage 3: Implement
•Business Setup•Statutory and Legal Requirements
Creating an India Entry Roadmap
Page 82
•Competitive Landscape Analysis
•Feasibility Assessment
•Market Positioning•Investment Strategy
•Location Assessment
•Partner Selection•Preparing Key Stakeholders
•Legal & Regulatory Setup
•Investment Structuring
•Partner Due Diligence
Requirements•Risk Management•People•Infrastructure•Employer Value Proposition
•Funding
One of the Leading US-India Cross Border Transaction Advisory Firms
• We advise funds and corporations on US-India cross border transactions such as mergers& acquisitions, strategic alliances, due diligence and market feasibility research
• Principals have several years of relevant industry experience in US and India, bothtransactional and operational
• Strong capabilities in Global Strategic Consulting, Analytics, Knowledge ProcessOutsourcing and Information Technology Services
• Headquartered in New York with offices in Mumbai, New Delhi, Chennai and Kolkatta.
About Virtus Global Partners
Page 83
• Headquartered in New York with offices in Mumbai, New Delhi, Chennai and Kolkatta.
Key transactions
Assess and Plan Process
ImplementationMonitor and
Measure• Future Business
Requirements
• Financial portfolio
goals
• Strategic
Acquisition and
Sourcing Goals
• Organization and
Operating Model
• Performance
Management
Outsourcing
• Sourcing
Arrangements
• Supply Chain
Improvements
• Financial Portfolio
Realignment
• Strategic
Acquisition
• Operational
Improvements
• IT process/ E-
• Current State
Assessment
• Performance
Measurement
(baseline and
going-forward)
• Reality Testing
• Customer
Feedback
• Continuous
Review Strategy
• Key Business
Strategies, Goals
and Objectives
• Financial
Portfolio
Improvements
• Strategic
Acquisition
• Sourcing
Arrangements
• Key Issues & Opportunities
Our Approach to Cross Border Advisory
Page 84
Financial Portfolio Optimization
Business Process Improvements
Organizational and Operating Model
• Outsourcing Opportunities
• IT process/ E-
commerce
Implementation
• Continuous
Improvement
Model
Key Issues & Opportunities
E-commerce and Infrastructure
Strategic Acquisition and Sourcing Arrangement
Our Office Locations
New York (Headquarters):
The Graybar Building420 Lexington AvenueSuite 300New York, NY 10170
India Offices:
Delhi, India Mumbai, India
Page 85
Delhi, India Building No. 8, 2nd FloorTower-ADLF Cyber City, Phase II Gurgaon - 122002
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