Columbia River basin juvenile salmonids: survival in the Columbia River Plume and northern California Current, a decade of observations of

ocean conditions

Ocean Ecology Group at NOAA-Fisheries and the NOAA/Oregon State University

Cooperative Institute for Marine Resource Studies

Chinook and coho salmon

• Climate and salmon survival

• Habitat requirements– where do salmon live?– which variables might be useful for prediction

of returns?– what it is about “ocean conditions” that affects

salmon growth and survival?

• Some indicators which predict salmon returns

Oceanography 101

Winds and current structureoff Oregon and Washington:

•Winter:Winds from the SouthDownwellingPoleward-flowing Davidson CurrentUniform cross-shelf hydrography

•Spring Transition in April/May

•Summer:Strong winds from the NorthCoastal upwellingEquatorward alongshore transportStrong cross-shelf physical gradients

•Upwelling-favorable winds cease in September/October

42° N

43° N

44° N

45° N

46° N

Newport

WA

OR

42° N

43° N

44° N

45° N

46° N

Newport

WA

OR

Summer:

Winter:

Plankton, Salmon and Pelagic Fish Sampling

• Sample in May off CR and WB; June and September (all ~ 50 stations; since 1998

• Sample Columbia River and Willapa every 10 days from April through July (AT NIGHT) at ~ 10 stations; since 1998

• Sample off Newport every two weeks since 1996

126° W 125° W 124° W 123° W

45° N

46° N

47° N

48° NLa Push

Queets River

Grays Harbor

Willapa Bay

Columbia River

Cape Meares

Cascade Head

_̂

Cape Falcon

Cape Perpetua

Newport

Washington

Oregon

CLIMATE

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

PDO Time Series

• Cool phase 1947-1976 Warm phase 1977-1998• Cool phase 1999-2002 Warm phase 2002-2005• Cool phase 2006 ??

Phase shifts are tracked by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO): negative values = cool phase; positive values = warm phase.

1970s 1980s 1999-2002

NORTH PACIFIC SST

The PDO and salmon survival

appear to be related

Coho and Spring Chinook react

somewhatsimilarly (but the difference in the rebound in 2002

is striking!)

Spring Chinook Salmon

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Anom

aly

of

num

ber

of

adults

re

turn

ing t

o s

paw

n

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Coho Salmon

YEAR

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Perc

ent

Surv

ival

02468

101214

Pacific Decadal Oscillation

“Cool” Phase

A working mechanistic A working mechanistic hypothesishypothesis: source : source

waters. . .waters. . .

Transport of cold water,

phytoplankton and boreal zooplankton into the NCC from

Gulf of Alaska

Transport of warm water, phytoplankton

and sub-tropical zooplankton into NCC

from offshore and from the south

“Warm” Phase

Comparisons in size and chemical composition of zooplankton

• Cold water zooplankton species from the Gulf of Alaska are large in size and store wax esters because the “hibernate” during winter months

• Warm water zooplankton species from offshore and/or south of Oregon are associated with positive PDO - they are small in size and have very low amounts of high energy wax ester lipid depots

Which food chain would you prefer if you were a salmon, especially knowing that you have to face a long winter?

Therefore, it is possible that significantly different food chains may result from climate shifts

Salmon and Pelagic Fish Sampling

• Sample in June and September at ~ 50 stations since 1998

• Distribution & abundance• Habitat area• Growth• Stock origin using genetics• Diseases and parasites• Food habits• Otoliths • Compare everything to ocean

conditions

126° W 125° W 124° W 123° W

45° N

46° N

47° N

48° NLa Push

Queets River

Grays Harbor

Willapa Bay

Columbia River

Cape Meares

Cascade Head

_̂

Cape Falcon

Cape Perpetua

Newport

Washington

Oregon

Average time of ocean entry

13-Apr 22-Apr 4-May 13-May 27-May 12-Jun 25-Jun 6-Jul 13-Jul 28-Jul0

2

4

6

8

10 Coho salmonChinook 1.0-ageChinook 0.0-age

Cruise date

Den

sity

(n

um

ber

/106 m

3)

13-Apr 22-Apr 4-May 13-May 27-May 12-Jun 25-Jun 6-Jul 13-Jul 28-Jul0

1500

3000

4500

6000

7500

Cruise date

Den

sity

(n

um

ber

/106 m

3)

SALMON

FORAGE FISH

Habitat

Septem ber

-125 -124.5 -124

June

-125 -124.5 -124

Septem ber

-125 -124.5 -124

June

-125 -124.5 -12444.5

45.0

45.5

46.0

46.5

47.0

47.5

48.0

48.5

Septem ber

-125 -124.5 -124

June

-125 -124.5 -124

1998 - 2004

Yearling C oho Salm on Yearling C hinook Salm on Subyearling C hinook Salm on

Origins of Chinooks: microsatellites

June Yearlings

June Subyearlings

Interior CR Spring

Upper CR Fall/Sum

Lower CR Falls

Lower CR Springs

Willamette Springs

Snake Falls

Coastal

May Yearlings

September Subyearlings90% Columbia 71% Columbia

93% Columbia 95% Columbia

coastal

ChinookJune Yearlings

June Subyearlings

Interior CR Spring

Upper CR Fall/Sum

Lower CR Falls

Lower CR Springs

Willamette Springs

Snake Falls

Coastal

May Yearlings

September Subyearlings90% Columbia 71% Columbia

93% Columbia 95% Columbia

coastal

ChinookJune Yearlings

June Subyearlings

Interior CR Spring

Upper CR Fall/Sum

Lower CR Falls

Lower CR Springs

Willamette Springs

Snake Falls

Coastal

May Yearlings

September Subyearlings90% Columbia 71% Columbia

93% Columbia 95% Columbia

coastal

Chinook

125° W 124° W 123° W

June Salmon Center of Density

45° N

46° N

47° N

48° N

LaPush

Astoria

Tillamook

Newport

W ashington

Oregon

Sub-yearling chinook

Yearling chinook

Yearling coho

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

125° W 124° W 123° W

September Salmon Center of Density

45° N

46° N

47° N

48° N

LaPush

Astoria

Tillam ook

Newport

LaPush

Astoria

Tillam ook

Newport

W ashington

Oregon

50 m100 m

150 m200 m

Sub-yearling chinook

Yearling chinook

Yearling coho

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Can use ocean color as measured by satellites to estimate habitat area

We have just begun to test the idea that “habitat area” throughout the summer is related to SARs.

Why are fish most abundant off WA?

What we do know:

• Stratification weaker • Upwelling weaker • Broad shelf weak

circulation • Euphausiids more

abundant there

What we don’t know:

• Fish prey more abundant there?

• Submarine canyons concentrate prey?

• Fish like low salinity water of the plume & Juan de Fuca?

126° W 125° W 124° W 123° W

45° N

46° N

47° N

48° NLa Push

Queets River

Grays Harbor

Willapa Bay

Columbia River

Cape Meares

Cascade Head

_̂

Cape Falcon

Cape Perpetua

Newport

Washington

Oregon

Indicators and Predictions

• Since coho and Chinook seem to react in the same way to ocean conditions during at least their first few months at sea, suggests that survival may be set during their first summer at sea

• Can see (next) that catches in our trawl surveys are proportional to each other and are related to survival data

Coho and Chinook caught on June trawl surveys

Number of juvenile coho

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

Ca

tch

es o

f ju

ve

nile

sa

lmo

n p

er

km

2

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Number of spring chinook

YEAR

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

0

10

20

30

40

50

Note: June 2005 produced the fewestcoho and Chinook since our surveys began, in 1998

Are low catches in 2005 significant?

• YES! Because catches in June surveys are correlated with returns two years later.

Juv. Spring Chinook catches in June vsAdult returns two years later

Catches of fish in June (per km2 )

0 10 20 30 40 50

Num

ber

of

adult

spring C

hin

ook

(1,0

00s)

pass

ing B

onnevi

lle

0

100

200

300

400

500

y = 9,43 X - 63.7

p = 0.01, R2 = 0.80 99

00

0301

0398 • NOTE: 2001 low catches and low returns (in 2003). ’01 a year of very low flows in June and low habitat area.

0202

Coho catch in June is not related to survival

In September, catch is related to survival

Ocean conditions experienced by juvenile coho during their first summer at sea appear to influence overall salmon

survivorship. Note low catch and low returns for coho that went to sea in 04. Can we expect spring Chinook to be low

in 06 as well??

1998 – 2004 Coho Catches off OR and WA

Average Coho Catch (# per kilometer towed) in June

0 1 2 3 4

Coh

o S

mol

t to

Adu

lt S

urvi

val (

%)

0

1

2

3

4

5

'98

'99

'00

'01

'02

'03

'04

R2 = 0.48P = 0.10

Average Coho Catch (# per kilometer towed) in September

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4C

oho

Sm

olt t

o A

dult

Sur

viva

l (%

)0

1

2

3

4

5

'98

'99

'00

'01

'02

'03

'04

R2 = 0.62P = 0.03

PREDICTIONS?

Cold Water Copepod Biomass Anomaly

-0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8An

om

aly

of

cou

nts

of

ad

ult

spri

ng

Ch

ino

ok

pa

st B

on

ne

ville

Da

m t

wo

ye

ars

late

r

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400y = 15.5 + 353.0 X

p = 0.045, R2 = 0.26

1997/ 98 El Niño

• Spring Chinook returns correlated with a “food chain” indicator of ocean conditions, with a two year lag

Regression curve shown excludesthe very high survival years of 1970 and 1973

Northern Copepod Biomass Anomaly

-0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

OP

I C

oho

Surv

iva

l

0

2

4

6

8

10

121970

1973

R2 = 0.75p = 0.0002

1969

1971

1972

• Columbia River coho returns correlated with the same indicator but with one year lag

Ocean Entry2005

Salmon and Marine Ecosystems

• We are at a point where we are able to provide predictions of returns of adult coho one year in advance and Spring Chinook two years in advance.

• Should help BPA evaluate both their freshwater habitat restoration programs and the role of river flow in spring in affecting salmon survival.

• Information used by NMFS Regional Office in Seattle to evaluate status of spring Chinook and coho stocks

• Working on a Northern California Current ecosystem status report which should be of interest to managers in the Pacific Northwest. 2005 report available now. Will be posted to web soon.

WRAP UP

• Local waters respond to basin-scale forcing, be it ENSO or PDO

• Climate and hydrographic changes result in two different coastal ecosystems:

– A cold water ecosystem which is sub-arctic in origin. Salmon survival is high when the spring transition and upwelling are early, waters are cold, and copepods are lipid-rich. We think predation is also lower during such times.

– A warm water ecosystems are sub-tropical in

origin. The spring transition and upwelling are late, the food chain is fat-free, predation high, and salmon do poorly.

Thank you for your attention!

Questions?

Origins of coho: microsatellites

May June September

55% Columbia R 53% Columbia R 41% Columbia R

Columbia River Oregon coast

South Washington coast

California coast

North Washington coast

Puget Sound British Columbia

Coho

May June September

55% Columbia R 53% Columbia R 41% Columbia R

Columbia River Oregon coast

South Washington coast

California coast

North Washington coast

Puget Sound British Columbia

Coho

0 50 100 150 200

Days re lease to capture

4 5

4 6

4 7

4 8

Latit

ude

Recoveries of CW T fish,1998 - 2002

1 to 5

5 to 10

10 to 20

20 to 40

Upper Colum bia R iverSum m er Chinook

M ay (circles)June (squares)Sept. (triang les)

(excludes Snake R.)

0 50 100 150 200

Days release to capture

4 5

4 6

4 7

4 8

Lat

itud

e

Spring Chinook fromabove Bonneville Dam(includes Snake R. summers)

0 50 100 150 200

Days release to capture

4 5

4 6

4 7

4 8

Latit

ude

Upriver Bright Fall Chinook

(mainly Snake R.)

0 50 100 150 200

Days release to capture

4 5

4 6

4 7

4 8

Latit

ude

Fall Ch inook from below M cNary Dam

0 50 100 150 200

Days release to capture

4 5

4 6

4 7

4 8

Latit

ude

Colum bia R . coho

Coho jacks vs. OPI returns

• 2006 returns predicted to be 2.2% by Jacks

• 2006 returns predicted to be < 1% based on catches on our September 2005 survey

• 2006 returns predicted top be < 1% based on zooplankton food chain indicators

Coho Jacks vs. OPIH Survival

Jack Counts

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000

Surv

ival (

%)

0

1

2

3

4

5

Third Index: SPRING TRANSITION

• Hydrographic Transition• Copepod community structure Transition

point• Sea level and copepod community

structure changes

Spring Transition: hydrography

• Hydro data only for 97-04• Suggestion that early transition results in higher

salmon survival.

Coho survival vs. day of hydrographic spring transition

Day of the Year

100 120 140 160 180 200 220

Coh

o su

rviv

al (

%)

0

1

2

3

4

5

y 6.78 - 0.0292 xR2 = 0.46, p = 0.04

Spring Transition: Copepods

• The physical spring transition occurs on that “day” when sea level drops and upwelling begins.

• Biological spring transition occurs on that day when the “biology” changes from winter to summer. Determined from cluster analysis

• Transition was very late in 2005; prediction for 2006 are for returns < 1%

Spring Transition as indicated by day of first appearance of

a cold water copepod community

Day of year of spring transition

60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

OP

I C

oho

Sur

viva

l

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

R2 = 0.45p = 0.052negative hyperbola

Coho jacks vs Northern copepod biomass anomalies

Copepod species data can provide a predictor of jack returns by early October, a few months before jack returns are available. Does suggest that survival is set in first summer

Northern Copepod Anomalies

-0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

JAC

K C

ou

nts

(th

ou

san

ds)

-50

0

50

100

150

200

-0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

0

50

100

150

200

F = 5.9, p = 0.014R2 = 0.38

R2 = 0.36