Column 20-21 February 2015Growing European concerns about Muslim migrants Irfan Husain, Dawn/ANN, Islamabad | Opinion | Tue, February 17 2015, 8:51 AMFor the last couple of months, weekly anti-Muslim demonstrations have been taking place in several German cities. Led by Pegida, the acronym for its German name of Patriotic Europeans Against the Islamisation of Europe, the protests began in Dresden and have spread to other cities.These marches have attracted counter-protests that often outnumber the anti-Muslim demonstrators. Oddly, only 0.5 per cent of Dresdens population is Muslim. And although a demo in Leipzig drew 25,000 marchers, the numbers have fallen since. One reason is that the leader of the movement, Lutz Bachmann, was revealed to be a closet neo-Nazi when a photograph of him with a Hitler moustache and haircut surfaced.Even though many German Muslims are of Turkish origin who mostly speak German and are fairly well integrated, it is the new wave of asylum seekers from Syria who have caused alarm.And while Europeans as a whole tend to be uncomfortable about the presence of Muslims living in their midst, they forget that countries like Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey and Pakistan are hosts to far larger numbers of refugees. In fact, one in four of those living in Lebanon today is a Syrian refugee.Although these protests show signs of dying down, disquiet over the rising Muslim presence in Europe is growing. A few days ago, almost all British newspapers carried front-page stories to inform readers that the Muslim population in England and Wales had nearly doubled in ten years, rising from 1.55 million in 2001 to 2.71 million in 2011.But more than its size, it is the composition of the population that is causing concern in Britain: 1 in 3 Muslims is under 15 years of age, compared with 1 in 5 overall; and 4 per cent of Muslims are over 65 compared with 16 per cent overall. These numbers translate into a relatively young cohort, many of whom will be reaching reproductive age soon. Given the generally larger size of Muslim families, many fear that the numbers will keep rising at a higher rate than the general population.Although only one Briton in 20 is Muslim, the public perception is that the numbers are four times this figure. One reason for this skewed estimate is that the Muslims are a very visible minority who tend to congregate in urban areas. An increasing number of Muslim girls and women have taken to covering themselves either in headscarves or in full burqas or niqabs, while the men often sport long, easily identifiable beards.And while other migrants generally dress like locals and blend in, Muslims tend to stay apart, with religious and cultural factors perpetuating this divide. Every few weeks, incidents to do with the sexual exploitation of young white girls, alleged terror plots, or the willingness of many young Muslims to join the Islamic State enhances the negative image many Brits have of Muslims and Islam.If growing numbers of Britons, with all their tolerance, can feel this hostility, then things are far worse in much of Europe. In France, the recent Charlie Hebdo killings have boosted the right-wing, Islamophobic Front Nationals poll ratings. As it is, widespread dissatisfaction with immigration policies has made the party a force to reckon with.From Sweden to Netherland, anti-Muslim sentiments are rising, fed by images of horrors committed by organisations like Boko Haram, the Islamic State and the Taliban. Hardly have the images of one atrocity faded that another is headline news. This steady barrage of horror stories, combined with the perception that Muslims in Europe constitute a fifth column prone to join extremists groups and attack the host communities, has hardened attitudes. Now, even liberal politicians need to toughen their stance on immigration to address widely held public concerns.One result of growing prejudice is to make it harder for young Muslims to get jobs. In France, Muslim unemployment goes up to over 40 per cent in some areas. In Britain, only 20 per cent are in full time employment, compared with 35 per cent overall. But then 18 per cent of Muslim women are at home, while only 6 per cent of British women fall in the category of full-time housewives. And while 24 per cent of all Muslims are educated to degree level, the figure is 44 per cent for Hindus.Housing is another issue that divides the communities. Relatively few Muslims live in homes they own, with the majority in assisted housing. Some council estates are breeding grounds for crime, with gangs fighting each other in vicious turf wars. Racism is rife, and bullying common. In these conditions, many Muslim kids band together for protection; some of them are then radicalised in local mosques or online.In countries across Europe, the link between poverty, unemployment, overcrowded ghettos and Islamic radicalism has been well established. But there are no easy answers. The reality is that nobody planned this influx or encouraged it. But laws regarding the right to asylum, and to bring in spouses, have opened the door to growing numbers of legal immigrants. And then of course there are illegal ways that involve people smugglers and dangerous routes.In a 2013 poll conducted by the British Social Attitudes, 62 per cent of those surveyed said they were worried that an increasing Muslim population would weaken Britains national identity. In 2003, 48 per cent voiced a similar concern. And an online survey conducted by The Daily Telegraph suggests that 88 per cent of its readers are worried by the presence of large numbers of Muslims. However, the Telegraph is a right-wing newspaper, so many of its readers would tend to be anti-immigration.Muslims in Europe are thus caught between a rock and a hard place. Their faith and their culture sets them apart from the host community. This isolates them and erects walls at a time when they should be building bridges. (***)

Redefining ASEAN financial integration Wahyoe Soedarmono, Jakarta | Opinion | Mon, February 16 2015, 6:56 AMIt is widely perceived that the 2010 eurozone crisis has somehow outweighed the benefits of financial integration, since coordination between member countries was arguably poor. For instance, France seemed reluctant to cut its budget deficit to 3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).

Although Germany was ready to slash its budget deficit, it required France to do so beforehand. If France was frustrated by German austerity, Germany was also frustrated by French reluctance to reform.

Such issues were not surprising. Since each country has its own priorities, fiscal management tends to differ from one country to another. Unfortunately, the EU member countries no longer have independent monetary policies to align with different fiscal policies. Instead, no effective fiscal coordination has been in place, whereas in times of crisis, some solvent countries are required to assist other insolvent countries.

Even if fiscal coordination mechanism exists, there are at least two important drawbacks.

First, most member countries are not willing to be intervened in beyond fiscal deficit rules. This also means that they cannot sacrifice sovereignty over their own budget management to solve other countries defaults.

Second, although each member country generously helps fellow member countries, moral hazard also lurks behind the fact that each member country believes that it will be helped by others in case of default.

Consequently, countries will manage fiscal policies imprudently without worrying too much about macroeconomic risks and fiscal crisis. Greece, Italy and Spain have provided evidence on the occurrence of moral hazard, including from excessive borrowing to finance unproductive spending.

In the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) context, what lessons can be learned about financial integration?

Essentially, several initiatives enacted in the AEC blueprint are still in the first phase of integration, which is a liberalization phase. It comprises: financial services liberalization, capital account liberalization, capital market liberalization and harmonization in payment and settlement system.

The second phase of integration is the creation of a single market for financial products, while the third phase is to establish a monetary union.

While the first phase is achievable with great commitment from ASEAN leaders, challenges to the second phase remain substantial with regard to the financial deepening sector gap and, to a lesser extent, the financial sector efficiency gap.

The former is important to ensure that the real sector across ASEAN receives sufficient financing from the banking sector as the dominant financial sector, to remain productive to compete together with other countries outside the region, such as China, which has started to penetrate Africa and Latin America.

The Global Financial Development Database (GFDD) reported that the financial deepening gap was still substantially large at least in ASEAN-5. If the credit-to-GDP ratio in Malaysia reaches approximately 120 percent, Indonesia still lags behind with the credit-to-GDP ratio of 20 percent on average.

The latter is also important to influence how pricing of financial products in one country can be accepted in other countries.

Narrowing efficiency gap will also enable the banking sector in one country to penetrate other countries in the region and hence, the ultimate goal of narrowing financial deepening gap can be achieved.

Interestingly, the GFDD for ASEAN-5 shows that the gap in the cost-to-income ratio as bank efficiency indicator is already narrow at approximately 40-60 percent across ASEAN-5 members. Although this gap continues to converge, regulatory harmonization should continue to cut the efficiency gap in the broader context of ASEAN.

Once financial deepening and efficiency gaps have been dealt with, the second phase of financial integration will likely run smoothly. The ultimate challenge will be how to achieve the third phase of financial integration, which is a monetary union with or without a single currency.

As part of the monetary unification processes, the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization (CMIM) is indeed a good example of mechanisms to deal with short-term liquidity problems associated with foreign reserves needs in ASEAN.

Extending the scope of CMIM to cope with short-term liquidity shortages in the banking sector is worth considering, so that a cross-border banking crisis can be avoided.

Yet, financial deepening by the banking sector plays a critical role in enabling the second phase of integration to run smoothly.

Likewise, ASEAN should not follow in the footstep of the EU. The impossible trinity suggests that a country cannot exercise three strategies simultaneously: free capital movements, independent monetary policies and stable exchange rates. Only two of them will work.

Since ASEAN countries still need a large amount of capital to boost real sector development and competitiveness, undertaking strategies to limit capital movement is clearly not an option.

Giving up on the strategies of exercising independent monetary policy is also not an option, because it will require strengthening of fiscal coordination.

The EU experience has shown how difficult it is to make fiscal policy coherent across countries, particularly in times of crisis.

Eventually, ASEAN can give up on the establishment of a single currency, although achieving a monetary union remains feasible in ASEAN without single currency. There is no need to have a single currency to make uniform exchange rates between ASEAN member currencies and other currencies outside the region.

Although stable exchange rates are indeed necessary for each country to achieve its own objective, enabling each country to exercise its own monetary policies independently is more than sufficient to deal with exchange-rate fluctuation. _______________The writer, who holds a PhD in money, finance and banking from the Universite de Limoges, France, is a lecturer at the school of business, Sampoerna University, Jakarta. The views expressed are his own.

Jokowis budget The Jakarta Post | Editorial | Wed, February 18 2015, 7:19 AMThe amendments to the 2015 state budget that were approved by the House of Representatives last week slightly decrease total government spending this year to Rp 1.9 quadrillion (US$ 148.2 billion) but in the long-term will be good for the economy because public investment for basic infrastructure, bureaucratic reform and spending on social benefits will almost double from last year.

The more than 50 percent increase in capital expenditure will be made possible by the big savings on fuel subsidies brought about by declining oil prices and the introduction of a fixed-subsidy system for fuels widely used by low-income people and fishermen.

Judging from the function of the state budget as a communication system, conveying signals about government behavior, prices, priorities and commitments, the macroeconomic indicators assumed for revenue and expenditure projections for the budget seem rather realistic, assuring the market that there will not likely be painful surprises during the current fiscal year.

The Rp 12,500 average rupiah exchange rate, $60/barrel oil price and interest rate of 6.2 percent assumed for the budget are realistic.

The amendments to the 2015 budget were necessary not only because of the significant changes used for the macroeconomic assumptions. The changes also are needed to fit in with the top priority programs of the new government of Joko Jokowi Widodo.

Jokowis economic platform focuses on food, energy and infrastructure, which are truly the basic needs for the nation to strengthen its economic resilience and competitiveness. Food and energy security is key to a nations political and economic stability. Therefore, the Jokowi programs to open 1 million hectares of new rice fields outside Java and build new irrigation networks for 3 million ha of rice fields, seaports, airports and roads are quite appropriate.

If were really serious about the long-run performance of the economy, we need to abandon the quest for short-term fixes and radical solutions. The mass media may hunger for novelty and drama. But when it comes to global uncertainty, stability and security seem the safest route right now.

Investing in infrastructure will make transportation and communication more efficient, improving connectivty within the country and with the outside world. If we want to talk about mid- and long-term growth, we have to talk about policies that are familiar.

The biggest challenge for the government is to speed up the execution of its investment budget, notoriously always short of the target.

But the good news is that the bulk of the almost Rp 40 trillion in budget appropriation for additional equity capital injection for state companies will go to firms engaged in the development and operations of basic infrastructure, such as general contractors, seaports, airports, public housing and railway lines. These state companies will be able to increase their borrowing capacity for financing infrastructure projects by leveraging fresh capital.

Abbotts own tsunami The Jakarta Post | Editorial | Sat, February 21 2015, 7:30 AMAustralian Prime Minister Tony Abbott humiliated himself on Wednesday when he described Indonesia as ungrateful for refusing to drop its decision to execute two Australian drug traffickers despite Australias A$1 billion worth of aid that was given to Aceh when it was hit by a tsunami in 2004.

The PM had embarrassed himself because his offensive remark was initially only responded to by the Foreign Ministrys spokesman Armanatha Nasir. It was ridiculous to compare Australias assistance to help hundreds of thousands of victims of a natural disaster in Aceh and Nias with his efforts to save the lives of two Australian drug traffickers.

As reported by Reuters, Abbott urged Indonesia to remember the tsunami, saying Australia would feel grievously let down if the executions proceeded despite the financial assistance it offered after the disaster. Although he tried to play down his own remark, the damage has been done. And any damage control from the prime minister will mean almost nothing.

Threats are not part of diplomatic language and no one responds well to threats, Armanatha said in response to Abbotts warning.

Indonesians will never forget Australias generous help for the people in Aceh and Nias, and we wish that we could have the opportunity to show the same generosity to Australia. We will always remember with deep gratitude the four Australian military personnel who lost their lives during a rescue operation in the two tsunami-devastated areas.

From the perspective of Australian domestic politics, Abbotts strong threat is understandable. Abbott wanted to impress his own people that he was a strong leader ready to do anything to protect Australian citizens, especially as his position as his partys boss is in great danger. Although he could foil the party coup attempt, the recent attempt by his own party compatriot to unseat him was very alarming for Abbott.

The death penalty is controversial everywhere. Any state, including Indonesia, has the obligation to protect and to save the lives of their citizens who are facing troubles abroad, including those on death row. But in the end, every country should also respect the laws of other countries.

The PMs remark, however, will not change our respect for the government and the people of Australia who greatly contributed to the rescue and rebuilding of Aceh and Nias.

Editorial: Badrodin for Chief Is No Better Than BudiBy Jakarta Globe on 11:51 pm Feb 19, 2015If Megawati Soekarnoputri can claim credit for establishing Indonesias Corruption Eradication Commission, or KPK, then its her hand-picked president, Joko Widodo, who could very well be overseeing its demise.Joko on Wednesday suspended two of the KPKs commissioners, including chairman Abraham Samad, after the latter was formally named a suspect by the police in a document forgery case that is clearly trumped up. Tellingly, Joko never moved to suspend Budi Gunawan, the would-be police chief, after he was named a graft suspect by the KPK last month, in a move that prompted a torrent of transparently retaliatory criminal charges by the police against the KPK commissioners.Joko has, though, finally decided to scrap his nomination of Budi for police chief, putting forward instead the current deputy chief, Badrodin Haiti. This, of course, only constitutes a step forward on a purely Lilliputian scale Badrodin was among the police generals identified by the governments anti-money-laundering watchdog for having suspiciously large amounts of money flowing through their bank accounts, a fat account tag he shares with Budi.Lets put that into perspective: Joko swapped out one shady police general for another, while suspending half of the KPKs leadership.That it took him more than a month to effectively do nothing except allow the KPK to be further undermined is deplorable. His predecessor, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, often criticized for being indecisive, took to Twitter on Sunday to plead for divine aid to guide our leaders to prioritize the interests of the country, and not their own.Allowing the most respected and most effective law enforcement agency in the nation be torn apart by what is arguably the most corrupt is decidedly not in the interests of the Indonesian public.

The importance of being the crazy wheel on the supermarket cart Nury Vittachi, Bangkok | Opinion | Sun, February 15 2015, 8:20 AMOpinion News Realpolitik and Indonesias imminent planned execution of Australian prisoners Inclusion in and through education: Language counts Jakartas floods and the changing climate Have you noticed that many supermarket shopping carts have one crazy wheel, and all the other wheels slavishly obey it? The human is pushing forward, but Crazy Wheel wants to go in a circle, so we must all go in a circle.

This is a vital lesson for life. People dont value logical leaders, only individualistic ones. Proof comes in the shape of three news items sent in by readers.

1) When a choir and orchestra started playing Handels Messiah in the UK, music-loving scientist Dr. David Glowacki lurched from side to side with his arms raised and then tried to crowd-surf. Staff threw the theoretical chemist out of the concert hall but many people pointed out that his response to hearing great music was the right one.

2) Police trying to arrest a felon in the US town of Prattville, Alabama, tried it the standard way with a search warrant, but found the mans house empty. A creative officer departed from the police manual by putting the mans dog outside. Good dog! Where is he? Go get him, boy. The dog promptly ran to a patch of long grass where his master was hiding and stood there, wagging his tail.

3) A homeless man in Taguatinga, Brazil, collapsed in the street and an ambulance picked him up. The paramedic noticed that the mans only friend, a street dog, was running after the vehicle, street after street.

The ambulance-man was so deeply moved by this, that he did what anybody would do. Yes, he filmed it for YouTube. Eventually, over-riding the rulebook, he demanded that the driver stop so that the dog could ride in the ambulance with his friend. This proves a great truth: life really can be a Disney movie.

Of course, most examples of departure from procedure are smaller scale than those above. Some years ago, this writer was downloading a computer program for his kids when a message flashed onto the screen: Please wait for the wizard to install this program.

The childrens eyes widened. Theyre gonna send a wizard to our house!? I pulled out my phone and pretended to send a text: No need for wizard. Can install by ourselves. (Its very important to impress your children when they are young because when they are teens you become too embarrassing to even be seen with in public).

But I did tell the children that one day we might invite the wizard for tea and cake. Its important to cultivate your uniqueness. Ninety-eight percent of people are stupid, but luckily I am in the other 4 percent.

Family relationships, of course, are the best place to experiment with original thinking.

When my kids are grown-ups who own their own homes, I am going to move in, eat all the food and spend all their money, while announcing at regular intervals: Im bored. After 18 years, I will leave without saying thank you and then contact them at regular intervals to send cash grants.

Yes, it sounds insane, but I suspect a surprising number of parents reading this column may be thinking: hmm, I might just choose to follow the crazy wheel. ____________

The writer is a columnist and journalist.

johannes Nugroho: In Indian Graft Battle, Some Lessons for Indonesias PresidentJoko Widodo may not have heard of Arvind Kejriwal at all but no doubt he would envy his position as head of his own political party

The politics of India, as those of Indonesia, are unpredictable. Arvind Kejriwal, the founder of the Aam Aadmi (Common Man) Party, was recently elected chief minister of Delhi. His comeback is surprising, given his failure last year in challenging the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi in the general elections.Kejriwal is Indias political figure most similar to our President Joko Widodo. Both men have sought to represent the interests of the grassroots populations of their respective countries. They have also been accused of being foreign stooges. Both are popular on social media, with Kejriwal becoming the fifth-most-mentioned Indian politician on both Twitter and Facebook during his Delhi Legislative Assembly campaign in 2013.The central theme of Kejriwals political career has been his pledge to root out corruption in Indian politics. In fact, it was his involvement in the 2011 Jan Lokpal movement which brought him to public attention for the first time.The movement demanded that the Indian government pass a parliamentary bill to strengthen the fight against corruption through the formation of a public ombudsman office with powers to prosecute officials suspected of graft. The new body would be akin to Indonesias own Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK).By the same token, Jokowi during his presidential campaign also promised to fortify Indonesias anti-graft measures. He even pledged a ten-fold increase in the KPKs budget to expedite matters. His previous track records as both mayor of Solo and governor of Jakarta, during which he attempted to simplify bureaucracy to cut corruption, seemed promising.Hence, President Jokowis inaction, in the face of the obvious attempts by the National Police to cripple the KPK for naming its candidate chief graft-suspect, is astounding. This is perhaps where he and Kejriwal differ.It may be too early to ascertain Kejriwals commitment to fighting corruption as he has just assumed office. But at the very least, he did resign as chief minister in 2013 because his minority government failed to pass an anti-corruption bill.In terms of deed, Kejriwal has shown more courage than Jokowi in staying true to his principles. Kejriwals resignation after mere 49 days in office was an indication that he would not bow to the forces of compromise and horse trading by his coalition partners when it came to an integral theme of his vision of a corruption free India.Another difference between Jokowi and Kejriwal is that while the former has attained the highest political office in Indonesia, the latter has so far managed only to secure the chief ministership of Delhi, a position comparable to Jokowis previous post as governor of Jakarta.But the most important distinguishing feature between the two is that Kejriwal has one asset that Jokowi has never had: his own political party, the AAP. The party will without a doubt prove instrumental if he chooses to have another attempt at the prime ministership in the future.This difference is important. Despite adhering to a presidential cabinet, Indonesian presidents tend to be better served when they have their own political parties, as Jokowis predecessor Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono proved.The current police-versus-KPK crisis also suggests that Jokowi might have a freer scope of action, if he were in full control of his parliamentary coalition. The closeness of police chief candidate Comr. Gen. Budi Gunawan to the presidents main political backer, Megawati Soekarnoputri, chairwoman of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), would undoubtedly have presented Jokowi with a predicament if he had refused to nominate Budi.The problematic situation then became a mine trap when the House of Representatives (DPR), known for its uncooperativeness with the president, rushed to approve Budis candidacy. Later on, a number oflawmakerssaid that the House would impeach the president if he dared cancel the appointment.For a leader without any majority in the legislatureand no direct access to control the political parties in his coalition, like Jokowi, the going can only get tougher. Jokowi may not have heard of Kejriwal at all but no doubt he would envy his position as head of his own political party.Between Jokowi and Kejriwal, one thing remains highly ironic. While Kejriwal spent years campaigning for the formation of Indias version of KPK, Jokowi today seems to be willing to see our KPK seriously embattled, while all he has to do is empower it. Let us hope history will record that both men remained consistent in their efforts to fight corruption both in Indonesia and India.Johannes Nugroho, a writer from Surabaya, can be contacted at johannes@nonacris.com.

View point: Hard, soft or effete: Jokowi, choose your brand of power! Julia Suryakusuma, Jakarta | Opinion | Wed, February 11 2015, 9:40 AMIn April 2011, a video of First Brig. Norman Kamaru lip-synching to the Hindi song Chaiyya Chaiyya went viral. The then 26-year-old policeman from Gorontalo became an overnight star and YouTube sensation.

Watching the six-and-a-half minute video, you can see why. Very convincingly, he mouths the lyrics and mimics the movements of Bollywood heartthrob Shah Rukh Khan, who sang the song in the 1998 Hindi film Dil Se (From the Heart). Normans instant fame garnered him a ton of interviews, appearances on television talk shows and even recording offers.

Why was the Indonesian public so taken by Normans Bollywood foray? Well, besides the fact that he was a policeman and his engaging performance, the popularity of the song and the film also helped.

Bollywood films have long had a place in the hearts of Indonesian audiences, but lately its said to have reached feverish proportions, popular not just in urban, but also rural areas.

Given Indonesians love story with Indian films and songs, I wonder why the Indian Embassy bothers to organize the Festival of India (FOI) each year.

Well, why does Coca Cola keep on advertising when its already so well known? Its to do with branding, creating a unique name and image to distinguish yourself from others.

In this way, countries are like companies too, and cultural diplomacy, or soft power the ability to attract, persuade and co-opt is the way to create Brand India or whatever country it may be. Ultimately its about self-benefit.

This years four-month festival is called Sahabat India (Friends of India). Given that the two countries have such long-standing links, Gurjit Singh, Indias ambassador to Indonesia, said the festival is more of a tribute to the enduring relationship between the two nations.

There is a little bit of India in every bit of Indonesia, Singh claims. Well, being born in New Delhi, and having India in my middle name [Indiati], how could I disagree?

As soft powers go, Indias is actually pretty impressive, covering a wide range of fields. As one writer put it, from Buddha to Bollywood to BPOs. BPO, in case you didnt know (I didnt!) is business process outsourcing, the fastest growing segment of information technology enabled services (ITES).

Personally, I am more familiar with yoga and Indian cuisine, as I imagine most people are, than with BPOs, because both touch peoples lives in a direct way.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi understood this well, which is the whole point of soft power. Last year, in an address to the UN General Assembly, he urged the UN to support the promotion of yoga around the world and succeeded in having the UN declare June 21, 2014, as International Yoga Day.

India is already a superpower with lots of hard power its the worlds largest democracy, it has the second-largest population and the third-largest economy in the world (gross domestic product based on purchasing power parity valuation), the fourth most powerful military and top 10 global operations are headed by Indians and India still felt it was important to have an International Yoga Day?

Thats because, as Shashi Tharoor, a prominent Indian politician and award-winning writer, said in a 2009 TED talk, in todays world and in the information era, its not the size of a countrys army, but a countrys ability to influence the worlds hearts and minds that matters.

That should be a cinch, right, for Indonesia? The country is famous for its super friendly people, rich and diverse culture and cuisine, weird and wacky customs, great beaches, amazing wildlife, incredible biodiversity, pleasant tropical climate, great tourist destinations the list goes on.

But, the reality is, Indonesia is losing the soft-power race. In terms of tourism alone its lost out to Incredible India and Malaysia Truly Asia. Even Thailand has done better. Often, and certainly recently, the image of Indonesia that comes to mind and proliferates in the news, is of rampant corruption, natural disasters, deforestation, environmental degradation, terrorism, drug smuggling, a land of smokers (ranking number three in the world) and plane crashes.

When Joko Jokowi Widodo became President, he had a lot of soft power momentum, riding on a wave of popular support, presenting a new image of a leader who was out to win peoples hearts and minds.

But day by day, he has fallen short of our expectations: in his overly compromised choice of Cabinet ministers (with 21 out of 34 ministers linked to his political backers), in his nomination of Comr. Gen. Budi Gunawan, a corruption suspect, as a candidate for head of the police, in the way he handled the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) versus the police debacle and, most recently, by reportedly allowing the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to build an Indonesian car between a little known company and the Malaysian carmaker Proton. Was it because the company was owned by AM Hendropriyono, one of his political supporters, who incidentally is often linked to various human rights abuses?

Last but not least, Jokowis hard-headed refusal to grant clemency to convicted drug-traffickers, even Myuran Sukumaran and Andrew Chan, two of the so-called Bali Nine, who in their 10 years of incarceration reformed themselves, shows a cruel, heartless, unforgiving face of Indonesia. In any case, Jokowis claim of a national drug emergency, which necessitates the death penalty, is based on false statistics. Oops!

In the end, Jokowi is hard when he should be soft and soft when he should be hard. That amounts to being an effete leader.

Easy come, easy go, they say. Normans instant celebrityhood was a flash in the pan. He was fired from the police, his career as an artist put on hold and now he has to be content selling Manado porridge with his wife Desi.

Is Jokowis popularity and leadership also a flash in the pan?_______________

The writer is the author of Julias Jihad- See more at: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2015/02/11/view-point-hard-soft-or-effete-jokowi-choose-your-brand-power.html#sthash.k2xSsM4o.dpuf

Commentary: Why Indonesia Will Ignore All Bali Nine ProtestsPresident Joko Widodo has been on the receiving end of international protests and condemnation for executing foreign nationals in January. He now plans to send 11 more convicted drug traffickers on death row, including two Australians, to the firing squad.UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has called for Indonesia to halt executions. Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott also pleaded for Jokowi, as the president is popularly known in Indonesia, to spare the lives of Bali Nine duo Andrew Chan and Myuran Sukumaran, warning that the relationship between the two countries will be harmed if Indonesia proceeds with the executions.Could their pleas actually move Jokowi to change his mind and grant clemency to the death-row prisoners now facing execution?It is doubtful that Jokowi will be moved. He has insisted that the death penalty is a law enforcement solution to a national drug emergency. But more than that, it is also a political issue.Human rights activists have been calling for Jokowi to abide by Indonesias obligation to grant death row convicts a genuine chance of pardons and commutations as stated in the International Convention on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR).For Jokowi, the calculation is clear: the political cost is too high for him to grant such pardons.As I have explained, while there is no systematic and independent survey that could show the percentage of Indonesians supporting the death penalty, Indonesias political elite is generally united in their support for capital punishment.Following Bans call to halt execution, thedeputy speaker ofthe Indonesian House of Representatives, Fadli Zon, who is from the opposition coalition, declared his support for Jokowi to ignore the UNs call and go ahead with the executions. He stressed that there is overwhelming public support for executing drug offenders.Abbotts linking of aid to his call for Indonesia to show mercy he pointedly referred to the A$1 billion Australia had provided after the 2004 tsunami provoked a negative response.Threats are not part of diplomatic language, foreign affairs spokesman Arrmanatha Nasir said. And from what I know, no-one responds well to threats.Vice-President Jusuf Kalla stated that Indonesia would carry out the executions regardless of Australias protests. Foreign Minister Retno L.P. Marsudi said that the death penalty was purely a law enforcement issue.The Schapelle Corby case proved that being lenient to drug smugglers was politically unpopular, as then-president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono discovered. So Jokowi is not likely to consider halting the executions. Such a move simply does not have clear political benefits.Granting clemency to convicted drug traffickers would also provide ammunition for Jokowis powerful critics to hammer his administration further. Domestically, Jokowis popularity is suffering from his seeming indifference to the National Polices efforts to undermine the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK).Foreign pressures will not do much to sway Jokowis opinion. Instead, it is more likely to generate a nationalist backlash.In light of Bans appeal for sentence commutation, several Indonesian news media outlets, including Merdeka.com, Detik.com, Media Indonesia and Viva News, ran an opinion article by Hikmahanto Juwana, a professor of international law from the University of Indonesia (UI). He rhetorically asked where Ban was when Indonesian migrant workers were executed in Saudi Arabia.Unlike Yudhoyono, who seemed to strive really hard to be liked by everyone, Jokowi has seemed not to really care about what other nations think about him. After his first foreign trips in November 2014, Jokowi remarked: Whats the point of having many friends but we only get the disadvantages? Many friends should bring many benefits.It could probably be argued that, for Jokowi, it is less a case of Jokowi should commute the Bali Nines death sentence to make Tony Abbott happy than what could Tony Abbott do for Jokowi so he would commute their death sentence?Jokowis refusal to pardon drug convicts on death row could be explained by his desire to project the public image of a decisive leader. Jokowi wants to be seen as a leader who commands a country with strong rule of law.There are some who dissent from my argument. Jarrah Sastrawan has argued that Jokowis bullheaded refusal to grant clemency was not based on concern for his personal image, but rather on: his personal conservatism and the impact of the Soeharto-era propaganda of his youth.We may disagree on Jokowis inner motivation. I will not speculate on that. But it is clear that regardless of his motivation, Jokowi wants to be seen as a strong leader or, rather, as father of the nation who can be firm when necessary.Yohanes Sulaiman is a lecturer in international relations and political science at the Indonesian Defense University.

Commentary: Oils Decline Keeps Looking Like a Better BetBy A. Gary Shilling on 10:01 am Feb 17, 2015At about $50 a barrel, crude oil prices are down by more than half from their June 2014 peak of $107. They may fall more, perhaps even as low as $10 to $20. Heres why.US economic growth has averaged 2.3 percent a year since the recovery started in mid-2009. Thats about half the rate you might expect in a rebound from the deepest recession since the 1930s. Meanwhile, growth in China is slowing, is minimal in the euro zone and is negative in Japan. Throw in the large increase in US vehicle gas mileage and other conservation measures and its clear why global oil demand is weak and might even decline.Oil pricesAt the same time, output is climbing, thanks in large part to increased US production from hydraulic fracking and horizontal drilling. US output rose by 15 percent in the 12 months through November from a year earlier, based on the latest data, while imports declined 4 percent.Something else figures in the mix: The eroding power of the OPEC cartel. Like all cartels, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is designed to ensure stable and above- market crude prices. But those high prices encourage cheating, as cartel members exceed their quotas. For the cartel to function, its leader in this case, Saudi Arabia must accommodate the cheaters by cutting its own output to keep prices from falling. But the Saudis have seen their past cutbacks result in market-share losses.So the Saudis, backed by other Persian Gulf oil producers with sizable financial resources Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates embarked on a game of chicken with the cheaters. On Nov. 27, OPEC said that it wouldnt cut output, sending oil prices off a cliff. The Saudis figure they can withstand low prices for longer than their financially weaker competitors, who will have to cut production first as pumping becomes uneconomical.What is the price at which major producers chicken out and slash output? Whatever that price is, it is much lower than the $125 a barrel Venezuela needs to support its mismanaged economy. The same goes for Ecuador, Algeria, Nigeria, Iraq, Iran and Angola.Saudi Arabia requires a price of more than $90 to fund its budget. But it has $726 billion in foreign currency reserves and is betting it can survive for two years with prices of less than $40 a barrel.Furthermore, the price when producers chicken out isnt necessarily the average cost of production, which for 80 percent of new US shale oil production this year will be $50 to $69 a barrel, according to Daniel Yergin of energy consultant IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates. Instead, the chicken-out point is the marginal cost of production, or the additional costs after the wells are drilled and the pipes are laid. Another way to think of it: Its the price at which cash flow for an additional barrel falls to zero.Last month, Wood Mackenzie, an energy research organization, found that of 2,222 oil fields surveyed worldwide, only 1.6 percent would have negative cash flow at $40 a barrel. That suggests there wont be a lot of chickening out at $40. Keep in mind that the marginal cost for efficient US shale-oil producers is about $10 to $20 a barrel in the Permian Basin in Texas and about the same for oil produced in the Persian Gulf.Also consider the conundrum financially troubled countries such as Russia and Venezuela find themselves in: They desperately need the revenue from oil exports to service foreign debts and fund imports. Yet, the lower the price, the more oil they need to produce and export to earn the same number of dollars, the currency used to price and trade oil.With new discoveries, stability in parts of the Middle East and increasing drilling efficiency, global oil output will no doubt rise in the next several years, adding to pressure on prices. US crude oil production is forecast to rise by 300,000 barrels a day during the next year from 9.1 million now. Sure, the drilling rig count is falling, but its the inefficient rigs that are being idled, not the horizontal rigs that are the backbone of the fracking industry. Consider also Iraqs recent deal with the Kurds, meaning that another 550,000 barrels a day will enter the market.While supply climbs, demand is weakening. OPEC forecasts demand for its oil at a 14-year low of 28.2 million barrels a day in 2017, 600,000 less than its forecast a year ago and down from current output of 30.7 million. It also cut its 2015 demand forecast to a 12-year low of 29.12 million barrels.Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency reduced its 2015 global demand forecast for the fourth time in 12 months by 230,000 barrels a day to 93.3 million and sees supply exceeding demand this year by 400,000 barrels a day.Although the 40 percent decline in US gasoline prices since April 2014 has led consumers to buy more gas-guzzling SUVs and pick-up trucks, consumers during the past few years have bought the most efficient blend of cars and trucks ever. At the same time, slowing growth in China and the shift away from energy-intensive manufactured exports and infrastructure to consumer services is depressing oil demand. China accounted for two-thirds of the growth in demand for oil in the past decade.So look for more big declines in crude oil and related energy prices. My next column will cover the winners and losers from low oil prices.Bloomberg ViewA. Gary Shilling is a Bloomberg View columnist

A new philosophy of money for the modern age Nury Vittachi, Bangkok | Opinion | Sun, February 08 2015, 10:21 AMThe kids were shocked when I told them that if they had been born in the Olden Days, they would have had to hunt for their food. But we dont even know where burgers live, said one.

They live in caves, I explained. In America. And they have claws.

Modern parents must teach children that everything has a cost in money or effort. To do this, I share cash-related stories from the newspaper.

Recent example: a sneaky jeweler who wanted to hide his sales from the taxman sold 6-million worth of jewelry for cash. The buyers took the jewelry and left him with a suitcase full of Monopoly money.

The kids couldnt see the problem. A suitcase full of Monopoly money had to be way better than boring bits of jewelry.

The guy would win every Monopoly game he played for the rest of his life. Good point.

I bought that particular board game after seeing an article on Investopedia on life lessons you could learn from Monopoly, such as keep cash on hand and be patient, etc. Like most articles on the Internet, it was garbage, beginning to end.

Monopoly teaches you five things. 1) Be a vicious, merciless landlord. 2) If you get the card that says Bank error in your favor, forget ethics, keep the money. 3) Only pay income tax if forced to. 4) Business people end up in jail sometimes, no big deal. 5) The ultimate purpose of life is to bankrupt everyone else and end up with all the cash.

Who created this game? Li Ka-shing? Rupert Murdoch? Donald Trump?

Nobody on earth would accept these as good life lessons, except perhaps for everyone in Asia, America, Europe, Russia, Africa, Australia, Latin America, etc.

But looking for educational finance items in the paper left me more baffled than the kids. Consider these two. 1) A New York dealer in modern art pleaded guilty to selling worthless items for millions of dollars. Thats illegal now? I thought that was the normal business model for modern art. 2) A businessman set up a fake university in Hong Kong that would give you a no-studying honorary degree if you just gave them money. Wait. Thats what real universities do too.

Readers who regularly contribute to this column pointed out that most individuals have their own deeply-held philosophies of money. This is true, and its not difficult to work them out.

My boss: You cannot buy respect. Not with your salary, anyway. My boss wife: Money doesnt matter. As long as youre rich. My daughters: Money cant buy happiness, so thats why we went shopping and spent it all. My son: Money cant buy love but it can buy the important stuff, video games, black t-shirts and burgers. My wife: Money is made of paper. That means, technically, it grows on trees.

The good news is that all this thinking about the philosophy of cash eventually left me with a practical plan for the future.

Everyone agrees that love is worth more than money, right? At the end of this month, I am going to give my landlord a hug.

The writer is a columnist and journalist.

View point : The ordinary king and us Dwi Atmanta, Jakarta | Opinion | Sun, February 08 2015, 10:25 AMMany viewed the popular Javanese wayang (puppet show) fairytale Petruk dadi Ratu (Petruk becomes a king) as a self-fulfilled prophecy with the assumption by Joko Jokowi Widodo of the presidency. Like Petruk, one of the four eternal servants of the Pandawa in the Javanese adaptation of the Mahabharata epic, Jokowi is deemed as a representative of the ordinary people who climbs to the throne at the expense of the elite.

No one had any doubt about Jokowis commitment to the people, as his performance as the mayor of Surakarta in 2005-2012 and governor of Jakarta in 2012-2014 demonstrated. It was the proven track record that lured the majority of voters to choose him in last years election over his rival Prabowo Subianto, the antithesis of Jokowi in almost all aspects.

But now, less than four months into his term, many, particularly his detractors, have started to sneer at Jokowi as the personification of Petruk. As the story goes, Petruk is unqualified for the throne and therefore his rise to power generates instability, if not a mess. Fortunately his reign is short-lived.

So soon? Yes, according to the Javanese folklore, Petruk is catapulted to the throne by accident after the amulet belonging to his ailing master Abimanyu passes to him. Due to the amulet, Abimanyu, son of Arjuna from Subadra, is destined to beget the future king of Hastinapura, Parikesit. As soon as Abimanyu recovers, Petruk surrenders the amulet to the deserving owner voluntarily.

In many ways Petruks perceived ineligibility to govern is biased in favor of the elite to justify a long-held belief that ordinary men are never born to rule but rather to serve. In fact, in many parts of the world, Indonesia included, rulers mostly come from the elite. Regime change cannot happen without the elites say so.

In the Indonesian context, the founding fathers belonged to the educated elite and the national leadership circulated within the elite group. Succession strictly involved the political blue blood, by birth or marriage, until a lesser known furniture businessman, Jokowi, emerged.

Less than four months since his euphoric inauguration on Oct. 20, 2014, however, Jokowi is facing an uphill, complicated struggle that will prove whether he merits the top executive post. Instead of fighting his opposition, Jokowi is, ironically, pitted against his own allies, who helped him win the presidential race, in particular the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and its paramount leader Megawati Soekarnoputri. What a similarity with Petruk fighting his own Pandawa masters.

The rift centers on the nomination of Comr. Gen. Budi Gunawan, formerly an adjutant to Megawati when she was president, as the National Police chief, despite his implication in past corruption cases.

Jokowi is torn between his commitment to anticorruption, which earned him popular support and loyalty to his party. Installing Budi, whom the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) has named a suspect, will cost Jokowi his credibility, not to mention his attempts to refute the allegations that he is no more than a puppet president.

On the other hand, withdrawing Budis nomination will spark a new political brouhaha given his endorsement by the House of Representatives. The worst-case scenario will see the PDI-P withdraw its political support from Jokowi, or if necessary lead a move to impeach him.

In fact some in the PDI-P inner circle have expressed disappointment in Jokowi for not paying back enough to the party. Jokowi only awarded three ministerial seats to the PDI-P despite its billing as the election winner, compared with its middle-level coalition partner the NasDem Party, which earned four Cabinet portfolios. Jokowi has reportedly also angered Megawati by appointing Luhut Binsar Panjaitan the Presidential Delivery Unit chief.

PDI-P deputy chairman Pramono Anung has dismissed claims of a feud between Jokowi and PDI-P, saying Megawati had three times let Jokowi take decisions that went against her wishes without hard feelings. The first was the formation of the Transition Team prior to Jokowis inauguration, the second was the appointment of Cabinet ministers whom Megawati did not endorse and the third was a variety of bills proposed by the government for the national legislative program that ran counter to the PDI-P line, such as the national security bill.

One month has passed since the controversy surrounding Budis nomination began. Not only have Jokowis critics and enemies piled on the pressure for him to act quickly to resolve the matter beyond further doubt, so too have his admirers. The crisis, which has been protracted and has been seen to spiral out of his control, as evinced in the fierce collision between the police and the KPK, has cast Jokowi in a very poor light. Many more now believe the man who they once dubbed Satrio Piningit (the knight in waiting) is no better than Petruk, who became a king by chance.

Jokowi has listened to many voices and taken necessary action to anticipate the repercussions of whatever decision he will make on Budi. His surprise approach to his former rival Prabowo and communication with the opposition Red-and-White Coalition, his meetings with leaders of legislative and judicial powers as well as his gathering of Army generals before finally holding a discussion with Megawati and the leaders of the Great Indonesia Coalition indicate that Jokowi is calculating well his moves to ensure he remains in command of the game.

That Jokowi went ahead with his tour of three ASEAN neighbors despite the crisis at home signals his confidence that everything is under control and will remain so when he returns home to announce his decision. He would not go overseas had the stalemate got worse.

When Jokowi finally withdraws Budis candidacy, names a replacement and wins the battle, his resemblance to Petruk will continue. The reason is that behind his modest, down-to-earth appearance, Petruk hides his invincible powers that even gods cannot match.

People however do not expect him to show off. They only want him to exercise his power to lead them to prosperity as promised.

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The author is a staff writer at The Jakarta Post- See more at: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2015/02/08/view-point-the-ordinary-king-and-us.html#sthash.eiAfYPTj.dpuf

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