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Edited by Manjit S. Kang Surinder S. Banga COMBATING CLIMATE CHANGE AN AGRICULTURAL PERSPECTIVE

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Combating Climate Change

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  • K16292

    Agriculture

    The effects of climate change can already be felt around the world, and they will likely impact all facets of human civilizationfrom health, liveli-hood security, agricultural production, and shelter to international trade. Since anthropogenic factors are mainly to blame for the current trends in global warming, human intervention will be necessary to mitigate it. With 17 authoritative chapters, Combating Climate Change: An Agricultural Perspective outlines a framework for preparing agriculture for climate change, presenting the causes and consequences of climate change and possible remediation measures.

    With contributions from internationally recognized scientists, the chapters cover global food security, adaptation of agriculture to fulfill its greenhouse gas emissions mitigation potential, economic aspects of climate change, the soil organic carbon pool, the need for agroecological intelligence, and the development of nutrient-use-efficient crops. The text also addresses genetic mitigation of climate change effects through the development of climate-resilient crops and the use of genetic and genomic resources to develop highly productive crop cultivars, as well as the conservation of native agroecosystems.

    Expert contributors discuss the impacts of climate change on plant pathogens and plant disease as well as on insects and crop losses. They address abiotic stress resistance, conservation tillage as a mitigation strategy, and more. The final chapter demonstrates the practical use of the WorldClim and DIVA software for modeling current and future climates, using Timor Leste and India as examples. Covering a broad range of issues related to climate change and agriculture, this book brings together ideas for environmentally friendly technologies and opportunities to further increase and stabilize global agricultural productivity and ensure food security in face of mounting climate challenge.

    COMBATING CLIMATE CHANGEA N A G R I C U L T U R A L P E R S P E C T I V E

    ISBN: 978-1-4665-6670-5

    9 781466 566705

    90000

    Edited byManjit S. Kang Surinder S. Banga

    COMBATINGCLIMATECHANGE A N A G R I C U L T U R A L P E R S P E C T I V E

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  • COMBATINGCLIMATECHANGE A N A G R I C U L T U R A L P E R S P E C T I V E

  • CRC Press is an imprint of theTaylor & Francis Group, an informa business

    Boca Raton London New York

    Edited byManjit S. Kang Surinder S. Banga

    COMBATINGCLIMATECHANGE A N A G R I C U L T U R A L P E R S P E C T I V E

  • CRC PressTaylor & Francis Group6000 Broken Sound Parkway NW, Suite 300Boca Raton, FL 33487-2742

    2013 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLCCRC Press is an imprint of Taylor & Francis Group, an Informa business

    No claim to original U.S. Government worksVersion Date: 20130204

    International Standard Book Number-13: 978-1-4665-6671-2 (eBook - PDF)

    This book contains information obtained from authentic and highly regarded sources. Reasonable efforts have been made to publish reliable data and information, but the author and publisher cannot assume responsibility for the valid-ity of all materials or the consequences of their use. The authors and publishers have attempted to trace the copyright holders of all material reproduced in this publication and apologize to copyright holders if permission to publish in this form has not been obtained. If any copyright material has not been acknowledged please write and let us know so we may rectify in any future reprint.

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  • vContents

    Foreword ..........................................................................................................................................viiPreface...............................................................................................................................................ixEditors ............................................................................................................................................ xiiiContributors .....................................................................................................................................xv

    Chapter 1Declining Agricultural Productivity and Global Food Security .......................................................1

    William D. Dar and C.L. Laxmipathi Gowda

    Chapter 2Global Agriculture and Climate Change: A Perspective ................................................................. 11

    Manjit S. Kang and Surinder S. Banga

    Chapter 3Dynamics and Economic Aspects of Climate Change ....................................................................29

    Jos A. Tapia Granados and scar Carpintero

    Chapter 4Intensive Agriculture and the Soil Carbon Pool .............................................................................. 59

    Rattan Lal

    Chapter 5Greenhouse Gas Emission from Agricultural Soils: Sources and Mitigation Potential .................. 73

    Dinesh K. Benbi

    Chapter 6Agroecological Intelligence Needed to Prepare Agriculture for Climate Change .......................... 89

    Prem S. Bindraban

    Chapter 7 Agronomic Practices and Input-Use Efficiency ............................................................................. 109

    Robert Norton

    Chapter 8 Developing Climate-Resilient Crops: A Conceptual Framework .................................................. 141

    Surinder S. Banga and Manjit S. Kang

    Chapter 9Genomic Perspective on the Dual Threats of Imperiled Native Agroecosystems and Climate Change to World Food Security ................................................................................ 163

    Bikram S. Gill, W.J. Raupp, and B. Friebe

  • vi Contents

    Chapter 10Climate Change and the Conservation of Plant Genetic Resources .............................................. 171

    Toby Hodgkin and Paul Bordoni

    Chapter 11Climate Change Impact on Plant Pathogens and Plant Diseases .................................................. 183

    Yigal Elad and Ilaria Pertot

    Chapter 12Climate Change Effects on Insects: Implications for Crop Protection and Food Security ........... 213

    Hari C. Sharma

    Chapter 13Merging Physiological and Genetic Approaches to Improve Abiotic Stress Resistance ............... 237

    Jiwan P. Palta

    Chapter 14Abiotic Stresses and Agricultural Sustainability ........................................................................... 271

    Lawrence Gusta

    Chapter 15 Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Nontilled, Permanent Raised, and Conventionally TilledBeds in the Central Highlands of Mexico ........................................................................... 283

    L. Dendooven, L. Patio-Ziga, N. Verhulst, K. Boden, A. Garca-Gaytn, M. Luna-Guido, and B. Govaerts

    Chapter 16 Birth of Trinitario Cacao: History Intertwined with Myths and Edaphicand Climatic Factors ......................................................................................................................305

    Lambert A. Motilal and Thayil N. Sreenivasan

    Chapter 17WorldClim and DIVA Software for Modeling Current and Future Climates at a 5 km Resolution: Case Studies from Timor Leste and India .................................................................. 325

    Nicholas Molyneux, Isabel Soares, and Florindo Neto

  • vii

    Foreword

    The multidimensional impact of climate change on life on our planet is being studied in detail by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and is also being discussed at the annual meetings of the Conference of Parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change adopted at Rio de Janeiro in 1992. This year marks the twentieth anniversary of the Rio Conference, and detailed discussions were held at the Rio +20 Conference on the progress made in the mitigation of climate change and the adaptation to the consequences of climate change, such as increase in mean temperature, unfavorable changes in precipitation, more frequent occurrence of extreme climatic events, such as drought, floods and coastal storms, and a rise in sea level. Because anthropogenic factors are mainly responsible for the present trends in global warming, it is only human action and intervention that can help alleviate the adverse impact of climate change.

    In 1979, I was invited by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to deliver a plenary lecture on Climate and Agriculture at the World Climate Conference held in Geneva. In 1989, Iwas again invited by the WMO to deliver a plenary lecture but this time on Climate Change and Agriculture. Thus, within a decade, climate change issues started dominating the discussions at climate conferences, and the IPCC was born to provide an authentic assessment of the climate change scenario and its implications for human well-being.

    This timely book, entitled Combating Climate Change: An Agricultural Perspective, calls atten-tion to the urgent need for action at all levels, starting with local communities and extending up to global organizations. Every nation will have to develop its own climate risk management strategy. Anticipatory action will be needed to safeguard the lives and livelihoods of coastal communities. Preparations have to be made, where necessary, to resettle climate refugees. Food production has to be insulated, to the extent possible, from climate change effects because agriculture constitutes the major source of livelihoods in rural areas in most of the developing countries. Sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia are among the most vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation. These are also regions with the highest malnutrition burden. Therefore, concerted action on the part of the global community will be essential to keep climate change from becoming a mega-calamity. The coping capacity of the poor will have to be strengthened because poor nations, and the poor in all nations, will be the worst sufferers of adverse changes in climate.

    Climate risk management will hold the key to sustainable food, water, and livelihood secu-rity. Both anticipatory research to checkmate potential problems, such as drought, flood, and sea level rise, and participatory research with local families to combine traditional wisdom with mod-ern technology should be important components of the climate risk management strategy of every nation. Women and men at the local level will have to be trained as climate risk managers to enhance the adaptation capacity of rural and urban families to the consequences of climate change.

    This book, edited by Drs. Manjit S. Kang and Surinder S. Banga, has an exhaustive coverage of all aspects of agricultural productivity and food security in relation to climate. The introduction by the editors is comprehensive. The chapter by Dr. Rattan Lal indicates the beneficial impact of building soil carbon banks.

    This book is an important contribution, with chapters written by leading authorities in this field. I hope it will be widely read and used by both professionals and policy makers. We owe a deep debt of gratitude to Drs. Kang and Banga for this labor of love and effort to insulate rural families from the adverse impact of unfavorable weather.

    M.S. SwaminathanWorld Food Laureate

    M S Swaminathan Research Foundation, Tamil Nadu, India

  • ix

    Preface

    Two thousand scientists, in a hundred countries, engaged in the most elaborate, well organized scien-tific collaboration in the history of humankind, have produced long-since a consensus that we will face a string of terrible catastrophes unless we act to prepare ourselves and deal with the underlying causes of global warming.

    Al Gore (September 9, 2005)

    Climate change is real, and the world has already begun to bear its consequences. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) affirms a rise in global sea levels at a mean rate of 1.8 (1.32.3) mm/year since 1961 and at an alarming mean rate of 3.1 (2.43.8) mm/year since 1993, with contributions from thermal expansion, melting glaciers and ice caps, and polar ice sheets. Coastal settlements, mega deltas, and mountain glaciers are all vulnerable. In its 2012 report, the IPCC suggests that vulnerability needs to be contrasted and complemented with the notion of capacity and should include environmental and human contexts of climate-related risks and development in a sustainable socioeconomic setting.

    Climate change is bound to impact all facets of human civilization on Earthfrom health, livelihood security, agricultural production (crops, livestock, and fisheries), family income, and shelter, to international trade. Economic consequences of climate change are projected to be stag-gering. Scientific evidence suggests strong temporal correlations between past climate changes and societal crises. The cooling from 1560 to 1660 is said to have caused successive agroeco-logical, socio economic, and demographic catastrophes, which led to the General Crisis of the Seventeenth Century (http://www.pnas.org/content/108/42/17296). Scientists have concluded that climatechange was the ultimate cause, and climate-driven economic downturn the direct cause of large-scale human crises in preindustrial Europe and the Northern Hemisphere. Climate changeinduced contraction of agricultural production was responsible for the outbreak of war, dynasty change, and population decline in China, Europe, and elsewhere.

    The above catastrophic consequences of the past and predicted dire consequences for the future warrant that we do whatever it takes to check (mitigate) and adapt to climate change. Anthropogenic factors are mainly to blame for the current trends in global warming. It may only be through benevo-lent actions of humans toward protecting the environment that they can redeem themselves.

    This book contains 17 authoritative chapters in which a framework for preparing agriculture for climate change is outlined. We have assembled, in a single volume, causes and consequences of cli-mate change and possible remedial measures. What each chapter offers is briefly explained below.

    In Chapter 1, Drs. W.D. Dar and C.L.L. Gowda emphasize improved crop, soil, and water manage-ment practices and stress-tolerant varieties to overcome detrimental impacts of climate change, which in turn would lead to improved food security, livelihoods, and environmental security. They also advo-cate enhanced agricultural investments for protection and improved use of land, water, and nutrients.

    In Chapter 2, Drs. M.S. Kang and S.S. Banga point out that besides enhancing agricultures adaptation capacity, its mitigation potential as a huge carbon sink must also be fully exploited. They argue that it makes economic sense to invest in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. They cite research showing that benefits of reducing methane emissions alone would be to the tune of $700$5000 per metric ton against the estimated abatement costs of less than $250.

    In Chapter 3, Drs. J.A. Tapia Granados and O. Carpintero elaborately discuss the economic aspects of climate change. They have highlighted the relationships between economic growth and CO2 emissions, and in turn, with climate change. They explain how monetary valuation of climate change is done via integrated assessment models. They suggest that CO2 emissions are implied by economic activities that generate monetary value and that such activities form the core of the work-ing of our economic system. They also dwell on adaptation and mitigation strategies and on the relationship between agriculture and climate change.

  • x PrefaCe

    In Chapter 4, Dr. R. Lal emphasizes a strong link between food security and the carbon pool in terrestrial ecosystems, notably the soil organic carbon (SOC) pool. He points out that quantity and quality of the SOC pool are essential for improving soil quality, agronomic production, and input-use efficiency and that SOC concentration can be enhanced by adopting no-till and mulch farming, using cover crops and green manure, applying manure and biochar, and using perennial culture (e.g., agroforestry). He further advocates that balanced application of fertilizers is crucial and that water conservation, water harvesting, recycling, use of drip subirrigation, and growing aerobic rice are important for enhancing water-use efficiency.

    In Chapter 5, Dr. D.K. Benbi discusses GHG emissions from agricultural soils, pointing out that while most of the emissions come from the combustion of fossil fuels and industrial processes, agri-culture accounts for 10%12% of the total anthropogenic emission of GHGs. He indicates the ways of mitigating GHG emissions and suggests that the global technical GHG mitigation potential from agriculture by 2030 is 5.56.0 Gt CO2-eq/year and that realization of this potential will require adoption of best available management practices with reference to soil type and land-use system.

    In Chapter 6, Dr. P.S. Bindraban stresses that the provision of human needs of an increased population will cause degradation of natural resources (e.g., erosion, soil fertility decline, and water pollution), which will limit production increases. He suggests that natural resourceuse efficiency will have to be enhanced dramatically, and variability should be reduced through enhanced buffer-ing capacity of the production base. For this, he recommends interdisciplinary research groups to create synergies between production factors. He further stresses the need for agroecological intel-ligence in choosing agricultural development strategies and designing agroecosystems.

    In Chapter 7, Dr. R. Norton dwells on agronomic practices and input-use efficiency. He suggests that the development of nutrient-use efficient crops using conventional and novel plant breeding methods will deliver improvements in the short to medium term. He cautions, however, that in the longer term, improved efficiency alone may not ensure food security. He advocates whole system changes to develop new products or to relocate land-use activities to different areas as new agroeco-logical zones develop.

    In Chapter 8, Drs. S.S. Banga and M.S. Kang discuss genetic mitigation of climate change effects. They point out that participatory breeding and varietal selection may help fast track the development of climate-resilient crop varieties and cropping systems. They suggest that the inte-gration of conservation genetics and genomics with breeding is essential to involve the whole adaptation process from bioreserves to genes to cultivars. They recommend that incentives and institutional support be provided to empower indigenous farmers and conservators (particularly women) in biodiversity hot spots and that increased investments in climate change research (adapta-tion and mitigation) are needed.

    In Chapter 9, Dr. B.S. Gill and colleagues discuss how plant genetic resources can help combat climate change. They point out that with the scientific method of breeding, genetic diversity in the landraces of crop plants and wild relatives can be exploited to develop highly productive crop cultivars. They warn that population pressure, habitat destruction, and the spread of modern indus-trialization are destroying the very native agroecosystems that have been our lifeline. They suggest the need for functioning native agroecosystems and new genetic diversity to respond to changing climate. They provide a plan of action for the conservation of native agroecosystems.

    In Chapter 10, Drs. T. Hodgkin and P. Bordoni discuss the enhanced use of agricultural biodiversity to meet the challenges posed by climate change. They advocate increased efforts to conserve the diversity of crops and their wild relatives; both in situ and ex situ conservation strategies will have to be adapted to meet changing environmental conditions and the need to secure biodiversity threatened by changing climate and altered production practices. They argue that increased use of plant genetic resources will require increased national and international movements of resources to ensure that adapted germplasm is available for changing production environments.

  • xiPrefaCe

    In Chapter 11, Drs. Y. Elad and I. Pertot expound on the impacts of climate change on plant pathogens and plant disease. They explain that climate change will affect optimal conditions for infection, host specificity, and mechanisms of plant infection. They point out that because both pathogens and host plants will be affected by the changing climate, striking changes in the mag-nitude of disease expression in a given pathosystem, geographical distribution of particular plant diseases, the economic importance of particular diseases in a given location, and the set of diseases that challenge each crop are expected. The authors suggest these changes will affect the measures farmers use to effectively control disease and the viability of particular cropping systems in par-ticular regions.

    In Chapter 12, Dr. H.C. Sharma highlights the implications of climate change relative to insects, crop protection, and food security. He explains that changes in geographical range and insect abun-dance will increase the extent of crop losses, which will affect crop production and food security. He points out that global warming will affect hostplant resistance, biopesticides, natural enemies, and synthetic chemicals now used for integrated pest management. He contends that climate change will cause increased problems with insect-transmitted diseases, particularly in developing coun-tries, where the need to increase and sustain food production is most critical.

    In Chapter 13, Dr. J.P. Palta discusses the integration of physiological and genetic approaches to improve frost-hardy potatoes. He points out that plasma membrane ATPase is an important site of cellular response to temperature stress and that this response appears to be mediated by changes in cellular/membrane calcium and membrane lipid composition. Citing examples of potato, he further suggests that calcium can mitigate the impact of heat, cold, and salinity. He provides a systematic approach to improving abiotic stress resistances and presents strategies for developing production practices to mitigate the impact of abiotic stresses in a changing climate scenario.

    In Chapter 14, Dr. L. Gusta discusses abiotic stressesa major crop-yield-limiting factorand agricultural sustainability. He reports the effect of stress-associated genes, for example, DNH4, CBF1, ROB5, and SOD3, on stress tolerance of genetically modified (GM) canola and potato in the field and in growth chambers, and points out that ROB5 and SOD3 improved overall plant perfor-mance. He further reports that potato seedlings transformed with the above stress-tolerant genes showed a significant yield advantage. He reports that under severe drought- and heat-stress condi-tions, plants overexpressing ROB5, CBF1, DNH4, and SOD had significantly higher yields than control plants. He informs that a single stress-tolerant gene had multiple effects on plant-stress toler-ance, growth and development, and yield in the field. He stresses that through a combined effort of a team of molecular biologists, plant physiologists, and plant breeders, it will be possible to produce non-GM plants with superior traits.

    In Chapter 15, Dr. L. Dendooven and colleagues discuss advantages of conservation tillage as a mitigation strategy. They show that organic matter content increased in soil under no-till, permanent-raised beds (PBs) and that CO2 emission was not affected by tillage, but CH4 and N2O emissions were lower in PBs when residue was retained than that in conventional-tilled beds (CBs). They also report that the global warming potential (GWP) of GHG emissions was higher in CB (801kg CO2/ha/year) than in PB (517 kg CO2/ha/year) with crop residue retention. They find that reduced tillage (when beds were made permanent) and crop residue retention had much lower net GWP than when beds were tilled and remade each year.

    In Chapter 16, L.A. Motilal and Dr. T.N. Sreenivasan present an interesting genesis of the Trinitario variety of cacao, which is shrouded in mystery. They link crop failure of the colonial period to a climatic catastrophe related to the Little Ice Age. They dismiss many possible hypotheses/theories but advance climatic conditions of the 1720s (the Little Ice Age era) as the cause for the catastrophe. They conclude that while it is impossible to categorically pinpoint the real factors that contributed to the failure of the Trinidad cacao industry in 1725, all the available information points to the lowered temperatures that existed during the Little Ice Age as being responsible for the crop failure and a germplasm shift that followed. They point out that the Trinitario variety of cacao

  • xii PrefaCe

    emerged thereafter as hybrids from variable crosses drawn from a predominantly Forastero lineage as opposed to Criollo ancestry that was susceptible to the prevailing environmental conditions.

    In Chapter 17, Dr. N. Molyneux and colleagues show the practical use of the WorldClim and DIVA software for modeling current and future climates at a 5 km resolution. The authors use Timor Leste and India as examples. They indicate that once known crop preferences and minimum and maximum temperature and rainfall thresholds are fed into the software, suitable areas for cur-rent species and cultivars and suitable species and cultivar characteristics that should be focused on for future climate scenarios in specific locations can be identified. The authors point out that coffee, the main agricultural export of Timor Leste, will likely move to higher altitudes, whereas temperate species that are currently grown at higher elevations may be phased out because of low productivity.

    We are highly grateful to Prof. M.S. Swaminathan for writing the Foreword. He is a reservoir of vast knowledge and wisdom. We thank all authors for their excellent contributions and cooperation during the completion of this important project.

    We trust this book will serve, for students, teachers, researchers, and policy makers, as a ready desktop reference on climate change-related agricultural issues. We expect this book to be useful to agricultural practitioners, as they devise innovative environment-friendly technologies to materialize a climate-resilient agriculture.

    Manjit S. KangKansas State University, Manhattan, Kansas

    Surinder S. BangaPunjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana, India

  • xiii

    Editors

    Dr. Manjit S. Kang is a plant geneticist and is currently an adjunct pro-fessor in the Department of Plant Pathology at Kansas State University, Manhattan. He served as vice chancellor (CEO) of Punjab Agricultural University (PAU) at Ludhiana (20072011). He previously served as an associate professor (19861990) and as a professor of quantitative genetics (19902007) at the Louisiana State University Agricultural Center and LSU A&M campuses in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. Before that, he was a sugarcane geneticist with the University of Florida (19811986). He served as a research station manager and senior plant breeder at Cargill, Inc. (19771979).

    He received a PhD (genetics and plant breeding) in 1977 from the University of Missouri, Columbia. He earned an MA (botany), also in

    1977, from Southern Illinois University (SIU), Carbondale. He received an MS (plant genetics) from SIU, Edwardsville, in 1971. He received a BSc (agriculture and animal husbandry) with honors in 1968 from PAU, Ludhiana.

    He specializes in quantitative genetics as applied to crop improvement. His expertise is globally recognized. He has lectured internationally on quantitative genetics as applied to crop improvementin Hungary under the USDA/OICD (United States Department of Agriculture Office of International Cooperation and Development) sponsorship (1992); at the International Rice Research Institute (Fulbright Program) in Malaysia (1999); Yunnan Academy of Agricultural Sciences at Kunming (2006, 2012); and at the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture in Nigeria (2006, 2007). He organized successful international conferences/ symposia on Genotype-by-Environment Interaction; Quantitative Genetics, Genomics and Plant Breeding; Agricultural and Environmental Sustainability: Considerations for the Future; Water Management Strategies for Food Security and Environment Quality; and Preparing Agriculture for Climate Change.

    He has edited/authored several books, including Genotype-by-Environment Interaction (1996; CRC Press), Quantitative Genetics, Genomics and Plant Breeding (2002; CABI Publishing), Crop Improvement: Challenges in the Twenty-First Century (2002; Haworth Press), Handbook of Formulas and Software for Plant Geneticists and Breeder (2003; Haworth Press), GGE Biplot Analysis: A Graphical Tool for Breeders, Geneticists, and Agronomists (2003; CRC Press), Agricultural and Environmental Sustainability: Considerations for the Future (2007; Haworth Press), Breeding Major Food Staples (2007; Blackwell Publishing), and Water and Agricultural Sustainability Strategies (2010; CRC Press). He has published more than 130 refereed journal articles in prestigious international journals, 40 book chapters/encyclopedia essays, and 135 other technical publications.

    He has received several prestigious honors and awards from various organizations. He is a fel-low of the American Society of Agronomy and Crop Science Society of America. He is also an honorary fellow of the Indian Society of Life Sciences, Crop Improvement Society of India, and Punjab Academy of Sciences. He has served as technical editor of Crop Science and editor-in-chief of Communications in Biometry and Crop Science. He is currently editor-in-chief of Journal of Crop Improvement and book review editor of Crop Science.

    He was recognized at the 36th Foundation Day of PAU in 1997 for his significant contributions to plant breeding and genetics. In 1999, he was selected as a Fulbright Senior Scholar (teaching award) to Malaysia. The Association of Agricultural Scientists of Indian Origin conferred on him the Outstanding Agricultural Scientist Award for 2007. He was selected as a Sigma Xi (Scientific Research Society) Distinguished Lecturer (20072009). Amity University, Noida, bestowed on

  • xiv editors

    him the Amity Academic Excellence Award in 2010. In 2011, he received from Guru Nanak Dev University, Amritsar the Bishan Singh Samundri Lectureship Award, sponsored by the S.Jaswant Singh Rai Memorial Trust. He has served as Chair of the National Selection Committee for Fulbright-Nehru Senior Research Scholar awards given by the United StatesIndia Educational Foundation (2010 and 2011).

    Surinder S. Banga received a PhD in plant breeding from Punjab Agricultural University (PAU), Ludhiana, India, in 1982. He then joined as an assistant professor in 1983 in the Department of Plant Breeding and Genetics at PAU. He rose to the rank of associate professor (oilseeds) in 1987 and of professor (oilseeds) in 1997. He served as the head of the Department of Plant Breeding and Genetics at PAU during 20092010. In recognition of his excellence in basic and applied research on oilseed Brassicas, he was awarded the presti-gious ICAR National Professor Chair in 2010 by the Indian Council of Agricultural Research. He was earlier elected as a fellow of the National Academy of Agricultural Sciences (India) during 2005. He is also an honorary fellow of the Indian Society of Oilseeds Research and Society for RapeseedMustard Research.

    He leads the Brassica group at PAU, which has developed an innovative research program on oilseed Brassicas. The groups researches primarily aim at germplasm enhancement with a focus on heterosis, polyploidy, and wide hybridization. His research employs Brassica juncea and B. napus as core experimental systems. He and his colleagues have studied heterosis attributable to alloploidy (fixed heterosis) and discovered that heterosis and genetic diversity in parental diploid species could not predict heterosis, combining ability and genetic diversity at the alloploid level. The group has now developed the concept of uncoupling and recoupling genomes in Brassica amphiploids to allow seamless flow of genetic information among digenomics, thereby, establishing a possible new route for polyploids to acquire variability under natural conditions. In addition, this process allows the use of polyploidization to manipulate, effectively, gene expression and generate novel variation of high breeding value. Such changes were associated with genome restructuring and genome size variation in B. juncea. For the first time, genotypes with determinate growth habit could be devel-oped in all three Brassica digenomics.

    He has also codeveloped/improved sources of cytoplasmic male sterility (refined ogu, lyr, carda, fruti) in B. juncea. In view of rapidly changing climate and consequent requirement of new germplasm resources, the group is now working aggressively on evaluating and exploiting varia-tion available in wild crucifers. Four complete sets of alien introgression lines have been devel-oped. These carry resistance/tolerance to sclerotinia stem rot, frost, drought, and mustard aphid. His group has also succeeded in introgressing gene(s) for shattering resistance into B. napus from B. carinata. He has codeveloped nine high-yielding varieties of rapeseedmustard.

    He has published extensively in journals of international repute. In addition, he has edited two well-received books: Breeding Oilseed Brassica (a monograph published in Theoretical and Applied Genetics, Vol. 19) and Hybrid Cultivar Development (Springer).

    He teaches courses on plant cytogenetics, crop biotechnology, and intellectual property rights at the PAU. He has chaired several crop breeding sessions in national and international confer-ences besides delivering invited lectures at national and international conferences and at several universities/institutes across the world.

  • xv

    Contributors

    Surinder S. BangaDepartment of Plant Breeding and GeneticsPunjab Agricultural UniversityLudhiana, India

    Dinesh K. BenbiDepartment of Soil SciencePunjab Agricultural UniversityLudhiana, India

    Prem S. BindrabanISRICWorld Soil InformationWageningen UniversityWageningen, The Netherlands

    K. BodenDepartment of Earth and Environmental

    SciencesKatholieke Universiteit LeuvenHeverlee, Belgium

    Paul BordoniBioversity InternationalMaccareseRome, Italy

    scar CarpinteroDepartment of Applied EconomicsUniversity of ValladolidValladolid, Spain

    William D. DarInternational Crops Research Institute for

    Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT)Andhra Pradesh, India

    L. DendoovenLaboratory of Soil EcologyGIP, CinvestavMxico D.F., Mxico

    Yigal EladDepartment of Plant Pathology and Weed

    ResearchAgricultural Research OrganizationThe Volcani CenterBeit Dagan, Israel

    B. FriebeWheat Genetics Resource CenterDepartment of Plant PathologyKansas State UniversityManhattan, Kansas

    A. Garca-GaytnLaboratory of Soil EcologyGIP, CinvestavMxico D.F., Mxico

    Bikram S. GillWheat Genetics Resource CenterDepartment of Plant PathologyKansas State UniversityManhattan, Kansas

    B. GovaertsInternational Maize and Wheat Improvement

    Centre (CIMMYT)Mxico D.F., Mxico

    C.L. Laxmipathi GowdaInternational Crops Research Institute for

    Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT)Andhra Pradesh, India

    Lawrence GustaDepartment of Plant SciencesUniversity of SaskatchewanSaskatoon, Canada

    Toby HodgkinPlatform for Agrobiodiversity ResearchBioversity InternationalMaccareseRome, Italy

    Manjit S. KangDepartment of Plant PathologyKansas State UniversityManhattan, Kansas

    Rattan LalCarbon Management and Sequestration CenterThe Ohio State UniversityColumbus, Ohio

  • xvi Contributors

    M. Luna-GuidoLaboratory of Soil EcologyGIP, CinvestavMxico D.F., Mxico

    Nicholas MolyneuxClimate Change ComponentFini ba MorisMinistry of Agriculture and FisheriesDili, Timor Leste

    Lambert A. MotilalCocoa Research CentreThe University of the West IndiesSt. Augustine, Trinidad

    Florindo NetoClimate Change ComponentFini ba MorisMinistry of Agriculture and FisheriesDili, Timor Leste

    Robert NortonInternational Plant Nutrition InstituteHorsham, Victoria, Australia

    Jiwan P. PaltaDepartment of HorticultureUniversity of WisconsinMadisonMadison, Wisconsin

    L. Patio-ZigaLaboratory of Soil EcologyGIP, CinvestavMxico D.F., Mxico

    Ilaria PertotDepartment of Sustainable Agro-Ecosystems

    and BioresourcesResearch and Innovation CentreFondazione

    Edmund MachTrentino, Italy

    W.J. RauppWheat Genetics Resource CenterDepartment of Plant PathologyKansas State UniversityManhattan, Kansas

    Hari C. SharmaInternational Crops Research Institute for the

    Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT)Andhra Pradesh, India

    Isabel SoaresClimate Change ComponentFini ba MorisMinistry of Agriculture and FisheriesDili, Timor Leste

    Thayil N. SreenivasanCocoa Research CentreThe University of the West IndiesSt. Augustine, Trinidad

    Jos A. Tapia GranadosInstitute for Social Research (SEH/SRC)University of MichiganAnn Arbor, Michigan

    N. VerhulstInternational Maize and Wheat Improvement

    Centre (CIMMYT)Mxico D.F., Mxico

  • 1ChaPtEr 1

    Declining agricultural Productivity and Global Food Security*

    William D. Dar and C.L. Laxmipathi Gowda

    INtrODUCtION

    The three defining and interlinked challenges of the twenty-first century are managing climate change and overcoming poverty and food insecurity, bringing them to the top of the international agenda. In 2008, the world witnessed a food price spike, food riots, and political changes in several countries. In India, the monsoon failure in 2009 knocked out 40%50% of the kharif (rainy season) harvest; torrential downpours worsened the food crisis. Pakistan was ravaged by unprecedented floods, with a massive impact on agriculture and food production. In Niger, drought and failed harvests put more than half the countrys population of 14 million at risk from famine.

    * Declining agricultural productivity and global food security, William Dar and C.L. Gowda, Journal of Crop Improvement 26(4), reprinted by permission of Taylor & Francis (http://www.tandfonline.com).

    CONtENtS

    Introduction ........................................................................................................................................1Climate Change: Severity and Impact ...............................................................................................2Strategies to Alleviate the Effects of Climate Change ......................................................................4Climate ChangeReady Crops ..........................................................................................................4Climate-Smart Production Systems ...................................................................................................5

    Water Management .......................................................................................................................5Crop Management Practices .........................................................................................................5Integrated Pest Management .........................................................................................................6Integrated Nutrient Management ..................................................................................................6

    Economic Diversification, Capacity Building, and Collective Action ..............................................7Weather Forecasting and Crop Modeling ..........................................................................................7Climate Change: Hope for the Semiarid Tropics ...............................................................................8Inclusive Market-Oriented Development ...........................................................................................8Summary and Conclusion ..................................................................................................................9References ........................................................................................................................................ 10

  • 2 CoMbatinG CLiMate CHanGe: an aGriCuLturaL PersPeCtiVe

    Climate change predictions point to a warmer world within the next 50 years. All scenarios now show average temperature increases by 2050 to be on the order of 1C. After that, they diverge dramatically, ranging from 2C to 4C by 2100. The yields of many crops will be severely reduced by then. Though according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the impact of rising temperatures on rainfall distribution patterns in Africa and Asia remains far less certain, while in some parts of the world, the increasing frequency of extreme rainfall events and droughts appears significant. So unless the livelihood resilience and adaptive capacity of vulnerable communities can be greatly increased, adapting to future climate change will be daunting for most and impossible for many.

    CLIMatE ChaNGE: SEVErItY aND IMPaCt

    Given the fact that 2 billion people already live in the driest parts of the globe, where climate change is projected to reduce yields even further, the challenge of feeding 9 billion mouths by 2050 is frightening! This will mean that global agricultural production will need to grow by 70%100% by then! And what does it imply for about 1.5 billion people, nearly 60% of developing nations workforce, who are engaged in agriculture? Because agriculture constitutes a much larger fraction of the gross domestic product in developing countries than in developed nations, even a small per-centage of loss in agricultural productivity could snowball into a larger proportionate income loss for developing countries than for industrialized countries. Latest research from the International Food Policy Research Institute predicts that without action, by 2050, food prices could rise by up to 131% for maize, 78% for rice, and 67% for wheat!

    In more than 40 poverty-stricken developing countries, with a combined population of 2 billion, there are 450 million undernourished people. The Asian drylands are home to 42% of malnour-ished children and the sub-Saharan African drylands house 27%. Production losses attributable to climate change may drastically increase their numbers, severely hampering progress against food insecurity.

    Climate change also threatens poverty-reduction efforts, as the poor depend directly on already fragile ecosystems for their well-being and livelihoods. They lack the resources to adequately defend themselves or to adapt rapidly to changing circumstances, and more importantly, their voices are not sufficiently heard in international discussions, particularly in climate change negotiations. Environmental effects, such as desertification and rising sea levels, triggered by climate change, can lead to increased conflict for resources.

    While agriculture is highly vulnerable to changes in climate, at the same time, it is an important source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, representing 14% of the total global emissions. From 1990 to 2005, agricultural emissions in developing countries increased by 32% and are expected to continue to rise, driven by population increases and changes in diet (FAO, 2009a,b). While emis-sions from factors such as fertilizer production and application have increased, the net effect of higher yields has avoided emissions of up to 161 gigatons of carbon (GtC) since 1961. It is estimated that each dollar invested in agricultural yields has resulted in 68 fewer kilograms of carbon (kgC) emissions relative to 1961 technology, avoiding 3.6 GtC per year (Burney et al., 2010).

    Hence, agriculture has the potential to adapt and mitigate the impacts of climate change, and 70% of its high technical mitigation potential could be realized in developing countries. This is possible through adoption of sustainable practices, such as improved soil, crop, and water manage-ment. Agriculture can also serve as a potential sink for carbon and contribute to the resilience that is needed by smallholder farmers to adapt to and withstand the impacts of climate change.

    The negative effects of climate change on food security can be counteracted by broad-based economic growthparticularly improved agricultural productivity, robust international trade in agricultural products that can offset regional shortages, and agricultural productivity investments.

  • 3deCLininG aGriCuLturaL ProduCtiVity and GLobaL food seCurity

    For instance, an increase in maize productivity by 2% per year through 2050 would increase the price by 12% and reduce the number of malnourished children by 3%5%.

    It is widely recognized that increased heat stress, shift in monsoons, and drier soils pose much greater threats to the tropics than to the temperate regions. With most of the developing countries located in the tropics and most of them being heavily dependent on agriculture for food and income, relatively poor countries with limited resources face the costly and formidable task of adapting to climate change. The geographic focus of the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT) is the semiarid tropics or tropical drylands, which span 6.5 million square kilometers, covering more than 55 countries and home to more than 2 billion people. The tropical drylands have a challenging and inhospitable terrain where agriculture is risky. Figure 1.1 illus-trates, based on climate change models, one of the many possible scenarios of projected tropical drylands of Africa and Asia in the year 2050. The maps were produced starting with year 2000 data from the CRU-TS 3.0 Climate Database and using the HadCM3 output of the A2a scenario to determine the year 2050 areas. The dryland tropics were delineated using the aridity index of FAO and UNESCO.

    Characterized by extreme rainfall variability, recurrent and unpredictable droughts, flooding, high temperatures, and a fragile natural resource base with inherent low fertility soils, the rising perfect storma confluence of climate change, desertification, biodiversity loss, price rise, and mounting poverty and populationfurther threatens to disrupt the lives of the poor in the drylands, who depend on agriculture for survival.

    Global momentum is increasing for an approach to environmental protection based on the ecosystem services that nature provides for humans. As long as the marketplace treats such ser-vices as free goods, natures services to humanity will effectively be set to zero. By pricing such services, all forests, streams, lakes, and seashores would suddenly acquire real economic value. People will then have incentive to preserve them.

    Algeria

    MauritaniaMali Niger

    NigeriaChad

    Lybia Egypt

    Sudan

    Ethiopia

    Kenya

    Tanzania

    Zambia

    Botswana

    South Africa

    Madagascar

    YemenOman

    Iraq IranPakistan

    India

    AfghanistanTurkmenistan

    Uzbekistan

    Kazakhstan

    Russia

    Mongolia

    China

    Burma

    Sri Lanka

    ailand

    Malaysia

    Key

    CambodiaVietnam

    Indonesia

    Aridity indexDry sub-humidSemi-arid

    Papua New Guinea

    0 1,000 2,000N

    3,000 4,000 Kilometers

    Philippines

    Taiwan

    North KoreaSouth Korea

    Japan

    Saudi Arabia

    TurkeySyria

    Congo DR

    Angola

    Namibia

    Figure 1.1 (See color insert.) Projected tropical drylands of africa and asia in the year 2050, based on climate change models. the dryland tropics were delineated using the aridity index of fao and unesCo.

  • 4 CoMbatinG CLiMate CHanGe: an aGriCuLturaL PersPeCtiVe

    StratEGIES tO aLLEVIatE thE EFFECtS OF CLIMatE ChaNGE

    Climate change being a threat multiplier, adaptation and mitigation strategies need to be urgently integrated into national and regional development programs. Developing countries need to partici-pate in a globally integrated approach to this problem. Policies for adaptation include changes in land use and timing of farming operations, adaptive plant breeding and crop husbandry technolo-gies, pest forecasting and pest management technologies, irrigation infrastructure, water storage, and water management. Mitigation measures may include improved crop and livestock management practices, including improved input-use efficiencies (such as fertilizer microdosing and need-based application of pesticides for pest management), diversification of cropping systems, improved water management, and better forecasting tools and early warning systems.

    CLIMatE ChaNGErEaDY CrOPS

    ICRISAT already has on hand crops that are adapted to high soil and air temperatures; knowl-edge and understanding of flowering maturity durations; information on genetic variation for water-use efficiency; short-duration varieties that escape terminal drought; and high-yielding and disease-resistant varieties. For instance, we have developed short-duration chickpea (Cicer arieti-numL.) cultivars ICCV 2 (Shweta), ICCC 37 (Kranti), JG 11, and KAK 2; short-duration groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.) cultivar ICGV 91114 that escapes terminal drought (Figure 1.2); and also super-early chickpea and pigeon pea (Cajanus cajan L.) lines that mature in about 6575 days. Short-duration chickpea varieties have enabled the expansion of the crop into the tropical latitudes of Asia and Africa.

    The ICRISAT and private sector partnership hybrids of pearl millet (Pennisetum glaucum L.), 9444 and 86 M 64, flower and set seed at temperatures as high as 44C. The ICRISAT-bred sor-ghum (Sorghum bicolor L.) hybrid seed parents show stable seed set at temperatures above 40C. Sorghum genotypes with the stay-green trait continue to fill their grains normally even under lim-ited water or moisture-stress conditions (Borrell et al., 2000). The ICRISAT-developed sorghum hybrid parents, ICSR 21002, ICSV 21011, and ICSB 371, are high yielding and possess the stay-green trait that provides drought tolerance (Reddy et al., 2007).

    Our screening for heat tolerance in chickpea by growing the crop in the summer season has revealed wide genetic variation. One of the best heat-tolerant lines identified was ICCV 92944, which was earlier released as Yezin 6 in Myanmar.

    Figure 1.2 iCrisats climate-smart short-duration groundnut cultivar iCGV 91114 escapes terminal drought.

  • 5deCLininG aGriCuLturaL ProduCtiVity and GLobaL food seCurity

    We need to better understand the physiological mechanisms underlying heat tolerance, identify wider gene pools to develop crops with wider adaptability, and develop more effective germ-plasm-screening techniques for desired traits. The ICRISATs genebank holds more than 120,000 accessions from 144 countries that will help safeguard and exploit genetic diversity to enhance adaptation.

    CLIMatE-SMart PrODUCtION SYStEMS

    Water Management

    Climate change will modify rainfall, evaporation, runoff, and soil moisture storage, whereas higher temperatures will lead to an increase in crop water requirements. Improving crop production under such a scenario will largely depend on overcoming soil moisture problems through better capture and storage of rainwater and through improved input-use efficiency.

    In the tropical drylands, seasonal rainfall is generally adequate to significantly improve yields, but managing the extreme rainfall variability in time and space is a tremendous challenge. Managing water and using it efficiently are the main yield determinants.

    ICRISATs participatory and knowledge-based watershed development programs in Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and other states in India, parts of southern China, northern Vietnam, and northeast Thailand have shown that farmer and public investment can pro-vide attractive social returns, leading to poverty reduction. The success of the Adarsha watershed model in Kothapally in Andhra Pradesh, India, has attracted the attention of farmers, policymakers, and development investors. Income-generating options for the landless and women in Kothapally and other benchmark watersheds have included the setting up of village seed banks through self-help groups; value addition through seed material; product processing, such as dal (split pea) making, grading, and marketing; poultry rearing for egg and meat production; and vermicomposting. An average household income of US$1066 was generated from crop diversification and other systems in the watershed compared with US$734 in the non-watershed areas, reflecting an increase of 45% attributable to watershed interventions.

    Similarly, the Lucheba watershed in Guizhou province in southern China saw improved produc-tivity with the adoption of cost-efficient water-harvesting structures, farming system diversification, and intensification from rice and rapeseed to tending livestock and horticultural crops. Following watershed interventions, mainly growing vegetables and other diversified activities, such as tending chicks and pigs, the average income of farmers increased threefold, from US$462 (before the inter-ventions) to US$1538. The development of community watersheds in China and India has resulted in crop yields increasing up to fourfold and incomes rising by 45% and 77%, respectively.

    Crop Management Practices

    Adaptation to climate change necessitates identifying more appropriate crop management prac-tices; many of them are extensions of those currently being used or promoted to increase crop pro-duction. Higher (warmer) temperatures lead to rapid plant growth, causing a significant reduction in plant biomass and yield. For most crops, improved varieties adapted to a wide range of climatic conditions are available, and the impacts of climate change can be mitigated to some extent by rede-ploying and retargeting existing germplasm.

    Reduced tillage, conservation agriculture, microdosing of fertilizers, need-based application of pesticides, and use of legumes in crop rotations are some promising and economically viable tech-nologies. Such technologies can reduce risk, improve soil fertility, and enhance productivity under variable climatic conditions.

  • 6 CoMbatinG CLiMate CHanGe: an aGriCuLturaL PersPeCtiVe

    Integrated Pest Management

    Greater variability in climate will mean increased variability in pest incidence. Many of the pests that are presently confined to the tropics may move northward to the temperate regions in Europe and North America. Changes in the distribution of insect pests will be greatly influenced by changes in the range of host crops because the distribution of a pest is also dependent on the availability of a host.

    Developing cultivars with stable or durable resistance to pests will provide an effective strategy for pest management. Resistance to sorghum midge (Stenodiplosis sorghicola) breaks down under high humidity and moderate temperatures in Kenya, whereas stem borer severity increases under drought (Sharma et al., 1999). Therefore, it is important to identify and develop cultivars that are sta-ble in expression of resistance to the target pests under variable climate. Relationships between pests and their natural enemies will change as a result of global warming, resulting in both increases and decreases in the status of individual species. Quantifying the impact of climate change on the activity and effectiveness of natural enemies will be a major concern in future pest management programs.

    ICRISAT has developed crop varieties that resist pests and pathogens. For example, downy mildew-resistant pearl millet hybrid HHB 67-Improved (Figure 1.3) in India; wilt-resistant high-yielding pigeon-pea ICEAP 00040 in Tanzania, Malawi, and Mozambique; and rosette-resistant groundnuts in Uganda, to name a few.

    Integrated Nutrient Management

    It is estimated that >815 million households worldwide suffer from micronutrient deficiencies. Our main objective is to increase the bioavailability of zinc (Zn) and iron (Fe) micronutrients and beta- carotene in the grains of crops under the ICRISAT mandate through biotechnological and con-ventional breeding. The feasibility of producing pearl millet hybrids, by use of high-Fe seed parents and restorers, combining high grain yield and high Fe content is being evaluated in multilocational trials at ICRISAT. Results have shown that even with the exploitation of existing hybrid parents that had not earlier been bred for higher Fe content, good possibilities exist to develop high-Fe hybrids with grain yield competitive with commercial hybrids.

    Figure 1.3 a farmer shows off his downy mildew-resistant crop of pearl millet hybrid HHb 67-improved.

  • 7deCLininG aGriCuLturaL ProduCtiVity and GLobaL food seCurity

    ICRISAT is developing mycotoxin-tolerant cultivars, particularly of groundnut, and appropriate pre- and post-harvest technologies that reduce the risk of food/feed contamination. This is being done through both conventional plant breeding and biotechnology applications and simple and low-cost mycotoxin diagnostic tools.

    ECONOMIC DIVErSIFICatION, CaPaCItY BUILDING, aND COLLECtIVE aCtION

    Diversification of crops cultivated by smallholder farmers in the semiarid tropics has the poten-tial to increase household incomes, create more nutritious household diets, and provide remunera-tive labor opportunities. The diversification will also provide valuable by-products such as firewood, fiber, and fodder.

    Crop diversification by introducing legumes into rice/wheat fallows pursued in the Indo-Gangetic plains of south Asia, growing medicinal and aromatic plants in partnership with private sector companies, and systems diversification through mixed crop-livestock systems have served as coping strategies against risk and have also enhanced incomes. Crop residues of chickpea, groundnut, pigeon-pea, sorghum, and millet are important sources of animal feed throughout the year, notably in the dry months when other feed resources are scarce. Improving the digestibility of such crop residues can have a significant impact on milk production, particularly in south Asia. For example, haulm or stems of a groundnut variety led to a 20% increase in milk yield of dairy animals of farmers who adopted this improved variety in Andhra Pradesh.

    The African Market Garden concept combines low-pressure drip irrigation systems with high-value crop diversification, enabling the commercial integration of fruits, vegetables, and trees in the dry Sahel. These small market gardens can be tended by womens groups to both increase their household incomes and diversify their families diets. This strategy has increased their incomes several-fold, in some cases more than 10-fold, to US$1500 from an area of only 500 m2.

    WEathEr FOrECaStING aND CrOP MODELING

    The role of weather and climate services and products in developing adaptation solutions is cru-cial. In the semiarid tropics, the greatest challenge to rainfed farming is dealing with the variability in rainfall, both within and between seasons, and extremes of temperature and humidity regimes. Both erratic rainfall and extreme temperatures will have a substantial effect on crop growth, pest incidence, and crop productivity.

    Use of climate forecasts in farm-level decision making has remained underdeveloped. Certain conditions must be in place for farmers and other agricultural decision makers to realize the potential benefits of appropriate use of climate forecasts. These conditions include the decision makers awareness of vulnerability and motivation, viable decision options that benefit from fore-cast information, prediction of the components of climate variability that are relevant to decision making, adequate communication and understanding of relevant information by the right audience at the right time, and in the longer term, appropriate institutional commitment and policy support (Hansen, 2002). Climate change assessment tools are needed that are more geographically precise, more useful for agricultural policy and program review and scenario assessment, and that more explicitly incorporate the biophysical constraints that affect agricultural productivity. Guiding crop adaptation work are tools, such as INSTAT and GENSTAT, MARKSIM, and APSIM/DSAT, that analyze climate data and produce high-quality information and products tailored to agricultural applications. Such tools help quantify the relationships between climate, crop, soil, and water resources.

  • 8 CoMbatinG CLiMate CHanGe: an aGriCuLturaL PersPeCtiVe

    CLIMatE ChaNGE: hOPE FOr thE SEMIarID trOPICS

    Using a range of weather data-driven tools, ICRISATs scientists have initiated research to test the hypothesis that in the medium term (20102050), we are well placed to help farmers mitigate the challenges posed and exploit the opportunities that are presented by climate change. Yield gap analyses have shown that the negative effects of climate change can be largely mitigated through greater application by farmers of improved crop, soil, and water management innovations and better targeted crop improvement approaches, more explicitly focused on adaptation to climate change.

    The impact of climate change on yields under low-input agriculture is likely to be minimal as other factors will continue to provide overriding constraints to crop growth and yield. The adoption of currently recommended, improved crop, soil, water, and pest management practices, even under climate change, will result in substantially higher yields than farmers are currently obtaining under low-input systems. Adoption of better temperature-adapted varieties could result in complete mitigation of climate change effects that result from temperature increases. Policymakers should take notice of the fact that better formulated and targeted policies that facilitate and support the adoption of agricultural innovation today assume even greater urgency. Not only will they improve the welfare of rural populations today, but they will also do a great deal to mitigate the impacts of future climate change.

    INCLUSIVE MarKEt-OrIENtED DEVELOPMENt

    Developing countries in Asia and Africa are witnessing a fundamental shift in agriculture from farming for household consumption to a more market-oriented production, where consumer-driven supply chains will play a dominant role unlike the erstwhile product-oriented supply chains. Thus, procurement and marketing of agricultural commodities are witnessing institutional innova-tions, such as contract farming, bulk marketing through producers associations, direct marketing, marketing through cooperatives or specialized middlemen, and Information and Communication Technology (ICT)-enabled supply chains that directly link the producer to the end user.

    Analyses by the World Bank and ICRISAT have found that access to markets is a key to escap-ing poverty. What we have gleaned from our rich knowledge base spanning 38 years in partnership with institutions, strategic studies, and long-term village-level studies is that changes have occurred across three decades in a number of villages in the drylands of Africa and Asia. Where poverty is declining, it has been largely because of improved connections to urban markets that purchased agricultural produce and offered additional employment opportunities.

    Our new strategy to 2020 is about harnessing markets to achieve our four mission goals: to elevate the poor out of poverty, hunger, malnutrition, and environmental degradation across the dry tropics of the developing world, aided by purposeful partnerships. The strategy, anchored on inclu-sive market-oriented development (IMOD), can be summarized in three simple words: innovate, grow, and prosper (Figure 1.4).

    IMOD is a socioeconomic process and a dynamic progression from subsistence toward market-oriented agriculture, which will achieve a new level of access to resources, stability, and productiv-ity for poor smallholder farmers. ICRISATs contribution to IMOD through its Strategic Thrust on Resilient Dryland Systems aims to help the poor navigate out of poverty by reducing their vulner-ability to drought and climate change while increasing diversity and value. IMOD pays greater attention to women, the largest group of poor and hungry, whose children are the drylands future and who risk being left behind by markets. It is also about building resilience, the ability to with-stand and recover from stress, which in the drylands includes human, social, physical, natural, and financial forces.

  • 9deCLininG aGriCuLturaL ProduCtiVity and GLobaL food seCurity

    SUMMarY aND CONCLUSION

    It is imperative that the worlds farmlands become the frontline for the battle to feed the pro-jected global human population of 9 billion. The detrimental effects of climate change on food security can be counteracted by broad-based economic developmentparticularly enhanced agri-cultural investment for improved land, water, and nutrient use. Improved crop, soil, and water management practices and stress-tolerant varieties, which will overcome the detrimental effects of climate change, will lead to benefits such as improved food security, livelihoods, and environmental security. Among the agricultural systems at greater risk of climate change are the dryland tropics, where ICRISAT has its mandate. ICRISATs new strategy to 2020 places emphasis on IMOD as a pathway out of poverty by linking farmers to markets to increase incomes, enabled through a systems perspective and purposeful partnerships. ICRISAT aims to build resilient dryland systems through its research thrust on reducing vulnerability to drought, heat, and other climate change scenarios. ICRISATs many major milestones on its climate-responsible path have been its short-duration chickpea varieties that have enabled an expansion of the crop into tropical latitudes of Asia and initiatives, such as the Sahelian Eco-Farm, and knowledge-based and people-centric entry-point activities in its community-based watersheds.

    There is a consensus that the increasing concentrations of GHGs in the atmosphere are rais-ing global temperatures and changing the earths climate and prevailing weather patterns with startling consequences. New knowledge and technical and policy solutions are critical if the rural poor in developing countries are to feel less pressure from climate change, high food prices, and environmental and energy crises. Given the adverse effects of climate change on production and crop productivity and on the geographical distribution of pests, adaptation and mitigation strate-gies are crucial. A better understanding of climate changes impact on food production, forests, and natural resources to target and prioritize both adaptation and mitigation measures is possible when strategies are implemented at the local level, tailored to local circumstances and ecosystems, and community-managed, with immediate benefits for the communities and long-term benefits for

    Reinvest gains:the engine ofgrowth

    Higher-va

    lue agricu

    lture

    market-or

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    Resilience

    Social assistance

    From

    food d

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    subsist

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    Access to inputs and market opportunities

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    Figure 1.4 (See color insert.) inclusive market-oriented development: the conceptual framework for iCrisats strategic plan to 2020.

  • 10 CoMbatinG CLiMate CHanGe: an aGriCuLturaL PersPeCtiVe

    future generations. Such measures must be based on sound science, enabled by effective policy at all levels and built on the current wealth of knowledge and new research directions.

    rEFErENCES

    Borrell, A.K., G.L. Hammer, and A.C.S. Douglas. 2000. Does maintaining green leaf area in sorghum improve yield under drought? I. Leaf growth and senescence. Crop Sci. 40:10261037.

    Burney, J.A., S.J. Davis, and D.B. Lobell. 2010. Greenhouse gas mitigation by agricultural intensification. Proc. Natl. Sci. USA. 107: 1205212057. Retrieved from http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas .0914216107.

    FAO. 2009a. Food security and agricultural mitigation in developing countries: Options for capturing synergies. FAO, Rome, Italy.

    FAO. 2009b. How to feed the world in 2050. FAO, Rome, Italy.Hansen, J.W. 2002. Realizing the potential benefits of climate prediction to agriculture: Issues, approaches,

    challenges. Agric. Syst. 74:309330.Reddy, B.V.S., B. Ramaiah, A. Ashok Kumar, and P. Sanjana Reddy. 2007. Evaluation of sorghum genotypes

    for stay-green trait and grain yield. E-J SAT Agric. Res. 3(1). Retrieved from http://www.icrisat.org/journal.

    Sharma, H.C., S.Z. Mukuru, E. Manyasa, and J.W. Were. 1999. Breakdown of resistance to sorghum midge Stenodiplosis sorghicola. Euphytica. 109:131140.

  • 11

    ChaPtEr 2

    Global agriculture and Climate ChangeA Perspective

    Manjit S. Kang and Surinder S. Banga

    INtrODUCtION

    Earths climate is undoubtedly changing; both global warming and rising sea levels are a real-ity. Globally averaged temperature for May 2012 marked the second warmest May since record-keeping began in 1880. May 2012 also marks the 36th consecutive May and the 327th consecutive month with a global temperature above the twentieth-century average. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center, the global land surface temperature was 2.02F (1.12C) above the twentieth-century average of 46.4F (8.1C), making it the fourth warmest MarchMay on record. Record April and May warmth in the Northern Hemisphere led to the warmest spring on record with a temperature departure of 2.48F (1.38C) above the long-term average. Warmth was most pronounced across central Eurasia and most of North America. It was cooler than average across Alaska in the Northern Hemisphere and Australia in the Southern Hemisphere. The MarchMay global sea surface temperature was 0.39C (0.70F) above the twentieth-century average of 16.1C (61.0F), tying with 2011 as the 11th

    CONtENtS

    Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 11Causes of Climate Change ............................................................................................................... 12Special Report on Emission Scenarios and Climate Models .......................................................... 12Consequences of Climate Change ................................................................................................... 13Sustainable Global Agricultural System .......................................................................................... 14Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Systems ..................................................... 15Access to Food and Livelihood Security ......................................................................................... 16Soil and Subsoil Water Resources ................................................................................................... 18Rise in Sea Levels and Seawater Acidification ................................................................................ 19Agricultural Perspective of Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change ...................................20Economics of Climate Change and Mitigation ................................................................................23Summary ..........................................................................................................................................25References ........................................................................................................................................25

  • 12 CoMbatinG CLiMate CHanGe: an aGriCuLturaL PersPeCtiVe

    warmest MarchMay on record. The margin of error is 0.04C (0.07F). The average Arctic sea ice extent during May was 3.5% below average, resulting in the 12th smallest May sea ice extent on record since satellite recordkeeping began in 1979. On the opposite pole, Antarctic sea ice during May 2012 was 2.4% above average and ranked as the 15th largest May sea ice extent in the 34-year period of recordkeeping.

    CaUSES OF CLIMatE ChaNGE

    Climate change is directly or indirectly related to human activity. Greenhouse gases (GHGs) (carbon dioxide [CO2], methane [CH4], and nitrous oxide [N2O]) are, among others, said to be the causes of global warming or climate change. Tropospheric ozone and black carbon are the only two agents known to cause both warming and degraded air quality (Shindell et al., 2012). Ozone precur-sors, including CH4, also degrade air quality.

    Agricultural activities release significant amounts of CO2 (decomposition of soil organic mat-ter or burning of plant materials), CH4 (under oxygen-deprived conditions; e.g., wetlands, flooded rice, and digestion by livestock), and N2O (microbial processes in soils and manures, and fertilizer applied in excess of needs) into the atmosphere. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) concluded that agriculture accounted for 10%12% of total global anthropogenic emissions of GHGs. Although CO2 emissions from agriculture are relatively small, almost 60% of all N2O is reportedly emitted from soils and about 50% of CH4 is generated by enteric fermentation (Smith et al., 2007a,b). More increases in agricultural emissions are expected as population and eco-nomic growth derives food demand, which, in turn, would increase the use of nitrogenous fertilizer. Between 1990 and 2005, methane and nitrous oxide emissions increased by 17%; these emissions are projected to increase further by 35%60% by 2030 as a result of increased fertilizer use and increased livestock production (Forster et al., 2007).

    Even though the quantity of methane and nitrous oxide emissions released into the atmo-sphere is far less than that of carbon dioxide, their potency or global warming potential is much greater than that of carbon dioxide. Methane is 23 times and nitrous oxide 310 times more potent than carbon dioxide (Bracmort, 2010). This means that 1 t of methane is equivalent to 23 t of carbon dioxide (or 23 CO2-eq) and 1 t of nitrous oxide is equivalent to 310 t of carbon dioxide (or 310 CO2-eq).

    SPECIaL rEPOrt ON EMISSION SCENarIOS aND CLIMatE MODELS

    The IPCC, in a document called Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), constructed four scenarios to explore the future dynamics of global growth and environment (Figure 2.1) (IPCC, 2007). These scenarios were dubbed as A1, A2, B1, and B2 (IPCC, 2007). The story- lines for the four scenarios were defined as follows. A1: a future world of very rapid economic growth, global population that peaks in midcentury and declines thereafter, and rapid introduc-tion of new and more efficient technologies. A2: a very heterogeneous world with continuously increasing global population and regionally oriented economic growth that is more fragmented and relatively slower. B1: a convergent world with the same global population as in A1 but with rapid changes in economic structures toward a service and information economy, with reductions in material intensity and the introduction of clean, resource-efficient technologies. B2: a world with emphasis on local solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustain-ability, with continuously increasing population (lower than A2) and intermediate economic development.

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    Depending on the scenario and climate models considered, global mean surface temperature is projected to rise, by 2100, in the range of 1.8C (with a range from 1.1C to 2.9C for B1) to 4.0C (with a range from 2.4C to 6.4C for A1) (IPCC, 2007). These figures translate into global annual mean temperatures that will be at least 2C above preindustrial levels by 2050.

    CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMatE ChaNGE

    Climate change poses many threats to agriculture, including the reduction of agricultural pro-ductivity, production stability, and incomes in areas of the world that already have high levels of food insecurity and limited means of coping with adverse weather (http://www.fao.org/climatechange/climatesmart/en/). Even a conservative projection of a 2C warmer climate may cause heavy but erratic precipitation, frequent and intense droughts, floods, tornados, heat waves, and other weather extremes (IPCC, 2011). The Arctic ice cap is continuing to decline, with planet-wide impacts on weather patterns. According to the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP, 2007), nearly one-third of the glacial area of central Asia has disappeared since 1930. The devastating 2010 Pakistan floods (a 1-in-1000-year event by historical standards) (Straatsma et al., 2010) and Russian heat wave (a 1-in-3000-year event) might just be indicative of the kinds of extreme events that could hit the world (Stott et al., 2004; Min et al., 2011; Pall et al., 2011). The rainiest year on record was 2010, and it tied for the hottest year ever (NOAA, 2011).

    That global warming has potentially strong economic consequences is evident from the dam-ages attributed to different weather-related phenomena. Coumou and Rahmstorf (2012) suggested that there was strong evidence linking specific events (e.g., heat waves and precipitation), or an increase in their numbers, to the human influence on climate. Some of the disastrous weather-related events and their economic and other consequences are listed in Table 2.1 (Coumou and Rahmstorf, 2012).

    In 1989, while addressing the World Climate Conference in Geneva, Switzerland, on the theme Climate Change and Agriculture, Prof. M.S. Swaminathan pointed out the implications

    1100SRES C02 concentrations : illustrative scenarios and full range

    10501000

    950900850800750

    C02 c

    once

    ntra

    tion

    (ppm

    )

    Year

    700650600550500450400350

    1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

    Min

    Max

    B1

    A2

    A1B

    Figure 2.1 Projected atmospheric Co2 concentrations under different case scenarios. (data from iPCC, Fourth assessment report, eds. b. Metz, o.r. davidson, P.r. bosch, r. dave, and L.a. Meyer, Cambridge university Press, new york, 2007.)

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    of a 1C2C rise in mean temperature for crop productivity in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa (Swaminathan, 2012, 144). In 2009, a team of experts of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) concluded that for each 1C rise in mean temperature, annual wheat yield losses in India were expected to be about 6 million tons (US$1.5 billion at current prices), and when losses of all other crops were taken into account, farmers were projected to lose US$20 billion each year (Swaminathan, 2012, 144). This will impact food security. The FAO defines food security as a situation that exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social, and economic access to suf-ficient, safe, and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life (FAO, 2002a). This definition entails four key dimensions of food securityavailability, access, stability, and utilizationand climate change is set to impact all four dimensions.

    SUStaINaBLE GLOBaL aGrICULtUraL SYStEM

    Despite industrial and technological revolutions, agriculture continues to be the fulcrum of human civilization. It contributes 4% of the global gross domestic product (GDP) (World Bank, 2003) and provides employment to 1.3 billion people (Dean, 2000). It accounts for the bulk of human land use. Pasture and crops alone occupied 37% of Earths land area in 1999. Around 2006, there were 276 Mha of irrigated cropland (FAO, 2006), which represented a five-fold increase since the beginning of the twentieth century. Agriculture accounts for more than two-thirds of human water use; in Asia, agricultures share is 80% (FAO, 2002b). Because of the economic importance of agriculture, attention must be paid to developing a sustainable global agricultural system.

    In the following section, we summarize broad predictions of future impacts of climate change on agricultural and economic systems and developmental pathways to a sustainable global agricultural

    table 2.1 Catastrophic Weather-related Events between 2005 and 2011 and their Consequences

    Extreme, record-Breaking Event Year areaFinancial or humanLoss

    Category 5 hurricane 2005 united states Hurricane Katrina caused 1836 deaths plus billions of dollars in damage

    Wettest MayJuly since 1766 2007 england and Wales flooding caused us$4.7 billion in damage

    Hottest summer since 1891 2007 southern europe (Greece) extensive wildfires

    Heat wave 2009 Victoria, australia devastating brush fires; nearly 200 human deaths

    Highest december rainfall since1900

    2010 eastern australia flooding in brisbane in early 2011; us$2.6 billion in damage

    record rainfall 2010 Pakistan flooding affected 20million people; around 3000 human deaths

    record tornado activity since 1950 2011 united states (Joplin, Missouri) 116 Human deaths

    Wettest Januaryoctober; Hurricane irene

    2011 northeastern united states severe flooding

    extreme July heat wave 2011 united states (texas, oklahoma) Wildfires burned 1.21million hectares; ~us$7 billion in damage

    Hottest and driest spring since 1880 2011 Western europe (france) 12% Grain harvest lost

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    system armed with improved adaptation and mitigation potential. The issues that follow have been discussed in light of direct or indirect impacts of climate change relative to global agriculture.

    PrOJECtED IMPaCtS OF CLIMatE ChaNGE ON aGrICULtUraL SYStEMS

    Changes in temperature and precipitation are projected to impact crop productivity, quality of produce, and land use in most countries of the world (Cline, 2007). Higher temperatures could benefit agriculture in temperate latitudes, where area under cultivation would expand, the length of the grow-ing period would increase, and crop productivity would see an upturn (Schmidhuber and Tubiello, 2007). A moderate incremental warming in some humid and temperate grasslands could increase pas-ture productivity and spread. These gains should be viewed in a scenario of increased occurrence of extreme events, such as heat waves and droughts in the Mediterranean region or increased heavy pre-cipitation events and flooding (IPCC, 2007). In drier areas, climate models have predicted increased evapotranspiration and lower soil moisture levels (Rosenzweig etal., 2001, 2002; IPCC, 2007). As a consequence, many cultivated areas might become unsuitable for cropping and some tropical grass-lands could become increasingly arid. The consensus of AR4 models (http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/data-sources) suggests an increase in annual precipitation in most of Asia during the cen-tury, the relative increase being largest in north and east Asia. The mean winter precipitation is also likely to increase in northern Asia and the Tibetan Plateau as well as in west, central, Southeast, and east Asia. On the other hand, summer precipitation is likely to increase in south, Southeast, north, and east Asia but decline in west and central Asia. Most of the AR4 models project reduced precipitation in December, January, and February. An increase in precipitation, however, may not necessarily mean an increased number of rainy days. An increase in the frequency of extreme weather events, including heat wave and intense precipitation events, is also projected for south, east, and Southeast Asia. An increase of 10%20% in tropical cyclone intensities for a rise in sea surface temperature of 2C4C above the current threshold temperature has also been projected (IPCC, 2007).

    Countries in the Southern Hemisphere are expected to suffer more because of their narrow economic base and high population density, with a large proportion engaged in farming. In India, almost 58% of the labor force depends on farming, a figure that goes up to 75% in many of the Asian rice-belt economies, such as Vietnam and Thailand. Vietnam, according to the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) reports, will be one of the most climate changeimpacted coun-tries. Because Vietnam is the second-largest rice exporter in the world and two-thirds of its rural labor force depends on rice production, rising sea levels and increased temperature would negatively impact the countrys rice production and consequently its large population. Climate change could decrease Vietnams annual rice production by 2.7 million tons by 2050. A rise in mean tempera-ture of 2C above normal could mean that small islands, such as Tuvalu in the Pacific Ocean, and Maldives, Lakshadweep, and Andaman and Nicobar in the Indian Ocean, could face submergence (Swaminathan, 2012, 143).

    The Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa reported that droughts in Zambia had increased in both frequency and intensity during the past few decades. Droughts in 19911992, 19941995, and 19971998 were especially harmful for subsistence farmers. Because of increased drought and consequent fires, agricultural production is projected to decline throughout much of southern and eastern Australia, and throughout parts of eastern New Zealand by 2030. In contrast, there could be moderate yield increases in northeastern Australia and parts of New Zealand because of longer growing seasons, less frost, and increased rainfall (IPCC, 2007). Agricultural productivity could become uncertain because of the effect of retreating glaciers on the quantum of water carried in snow-fed rivers on some of the most productive deltas of the world, including the Indo-Gangetic plains in India and the Mekong Delta in Southeast Asia, which are both thickly populated and inten-sively cultivated. Central Asia is expected to experience an increase in mean annual temperature of

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    2C by 2020 and between 4C and 5C by 2100. A decrease in annual runoff of 12% is also projected by 2020, with a potential threefold increase by 2050 (http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportalb/doc/GFDRRCountryProfiles/wb_gfdrr_ climate_change_country_profile_for_KGZ.pdf). Increased cli-mate sensitivity is also expected in the southeastern United States and in the U.S. corn belt (Carbone et al., 2003). Crops that are currently near climate thresholds (e.g., wine grapes in California) are likely to suffer decreased yields or quality, or both, with even modest warming (medium confidence) (White et al., 2006). Yields of cotton, soybeans, and barley could change much more than those of maize, wheat, and some vegetable crops (Antle, 2009). Reduced availability of water and elevated temperatures are expected to have negative effects on wheat, maize, and potentially soybean production in Brazil (de Siqueira et al.,