comfort securities limited daily research reports · 2018-09-27 · on investments in equity...

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Welcome Note

Thursday27th September, 2018

Stock Of The Day: (F & O)

Forecast and Analysis

CONTENTSCONTENTS



Title Page No.

'30,000 feet view’: The big picture of Dalal Street 04-07

Stock Of The Day: (F & O) 08-09

Equity Derivatives 10

Daily Pivot Table (Equities) 11

Forecast and Analysis 12-14

Daily Pivot Table (Commodities) 15

Disclaimer 16

'30,000 feet view’:

The big picture of Dalal Street

'30,000 feet view’:

The big picture of Dalal Street



'30,000 feet view’: newsletter provides insights and themes for Indian equity markets. We also try and cover international themes for the day. This newsletter is quite popular with traders as it covers the most preferred trading strategy for Sensex/Nifty for the day.

In Chart of the day section, we recommend a stock which is likely to move significantly in the short term, clearly defining the supports, the resistances and bias for the stock.

In a nutshell, '30,000 feet view’: covers themes and insights for the day.

‘30,000 feet view’: The big picture of Dalal Street

www.comfortsecurities.co.inEnjoy Your Comfort Zone.


Nifty Outlook

Intraday

Medium Term

Long Term

Key Levels to Watch

Nifty Support

Nifty Resistance

Pivot Level

Nifty

Outlook for the Day

INDICES

Nifty

Bank Nifty

Nifty Auto Index

Nifty FMCG Index

Nifty Infra Index

Nifty IT Index

Nifty Media Index

Nifty Midcap Index

Nifty Metal Index

Nifty Pharma Index

Nifty Reality Index

Nifty Smallcap Index

Sensex

SGX Nifty


11054 -0.12%

25376 0.18%

10002 -0.97%

29683 -1.47%

3085 0.31%

15932 -1.86%

2517 -0.20%

4838 0.62%

3694 1.71%

10289 0.43%

237 2.42%

6648 0.08%

36542 -0.30%

11083 0.29%

Volatile session likely.

Neutral (10971-11221)

Neutral (10500-11701)

Neutral (12001)

10971 & 10845

11221 & 11501

11575

Good Morning & Welcome to Thursday's trading action at Dalal Street, dated

27th of September 2018.

The numbers are in and the verdict is out!

The numbers: The Federal Open Market Committee lifted interest rates for the third time

this year and the eighth time since beginning its monetary-policy normalization imitative in

December of 2015. The policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee lifted the federal-

funds rate to a range between 2% to 2.25%.

The Fed has also predicted another hike by December and three more in 2019. Growth and

job gains have been “strong” and inflation remains near the central bank’s 2 percent

target, the FOMC said in its statement. The Fed also dropped the phrase that its policy

remains “accommodative.” However, the removal of the word should be taken as an

indication that the economy is performing as expected, emphasized Fed Chairman Jerome

Powell during the news conference following the Fed’s announcement.

Interestingly, Powell said that although tense trade relations were on the central bank’s

radar it hadn’t yet risen to the level of a significant concern for policy makers.

The Verdict: The Federal Reserve has signaled that the U.S economic growth outlook

warranted a more aggressive rate-hike path than investors had anticipated.

Amidst this backdrop, Wall Street slumped, relinquishing their early morning gains to close

near session lows. The Dow Jones index fell 107 points to close at 26385, and finished a

turbulent session sharply lower.

The U.S Dollar inched up. Interest rates are going up. Higher interest rates can make

riskier assets such as stocks less attractive. Gold traded just above $1,200 after Fed

decision.

At the time of writing SGX Nifty was seen trading in well above the dotted lines,

up 23 points at 11,126, indicating a muted start for our stock markets.

Outlook for Thursday: Positive session quite likely.

Focus now shifts away to September series F&O expiry this Thursday, 27th September.

Our call of the day which suggests that the benchmark Nifty may trade with positive bias

in today's trade; and most importantly, Dalal Street likely to see smooth sailing! The

downside was limited due to fund inflows from domestic institutional investors.

Having said that, the big investors camp unlikely to make big bets as there are other

catalysts that could cap Dalal Street's upside in today's trade are:

1. Concerns about lingering U.S-China trade tensions.

2. Oil prices at 4-year high as producers rebuff Trump’s demand to keep crude prices

low.

3. The Indian Rupee getting hammered amidst soaring crude oil prices and

strengthening of the US dollar overseas.

4. The street will keep an eye on the Rafale saga as that's getting intense.

FII/DII & OPTIONS DATA:

• As per Wednesday’s Provisional Data available on the NSE, FII’s sold shares worth

Rs. 809.95 crores in the Indian Equity Market. DIIs on the other hand bought shares

worth Rs. 1555.44 crores in the Indian Equity market.

• As per option data, key resistance level for the September series for Nifty are at

11,500 strike price as maximum call open interest (OI) of 31.70 lakh contracts were



Technical Strategy


SYNGENE

Action

Target

Support

Resistance

Holding Period

623.8

Accumulate

701

597/551

661/721.50

60 Days.

seen at the 11,500 strike price. While support for Nifty are seen at 11,000 strike

price as maximum put open interest seen at 11,000 strike price.

In the last week, FIIs sold equities worth Rs 2,674.12 crore, while domestic

institutions bought equities worth of Rs 1,782.63 crore.

STOCKS TO WATCH:

• Our chart of the day suggests establishing long positions in stocks like NESTLE,

RELIANCE INDUSTRIES (RIL) and MINDTREE with interweek perspective.

• Bullish stocks: RIL, BAJAJ FINANCE, HAVELLS, MARUTI, HINDUSTAN ZINC, SUN

PHARMA, MINDTREE, KPIT, BIOCON, VEDANTA.

• Bearish stocks: HEROMOTO CORP, CANFINA HOMES, INDIAN OIL

CORPORATION, PNB, OBC, NALCO.

• Show Me the Money: Buy BRITANNIA (5682): Britannia is signaling a major

rebound from an oversold conditions on daily charts. Interweek Strategy: Establish

long positions at CMP, targeting 5951 and then aggressive targets located at 6100-

6145 zone. Stop below 5445.

• Stocks banned in F&O segment for today: ADANI POWER, JET AIRWAYS,

PNB.

GLOBAL CUES:

• Wall Street ended mostly lower in Wednesday's tirade as the Dow Jones Industrial

Average fell 106.93 points. The Dow has closed lower for the third session in a row

after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, as widely

anticipated, and indicated its intent to tighten once more in December.

COMMODITY CUES:

• Crude Oil prices trade firm in Wednesday's trade, at four-year highs. We continue

with our positive stand on crude-oil prices. At a meeting over the weekend, a

committee made up of some members of the Organization of the Petroleum

Exporting Countries and some allied oil producers did not commit to an additional

increase in crude output to help offset expected supply disruptions from U.S.

sanctions on Iranian oil.

• In line with our positive bias, Copper prices stayed firm in Wednesday's trade. Bias

continues to be positive. MCX COPPER (457): Interweek strategy: Establish long

positions on dips between 445-449 zone, targeting 461 and then finally at 475-475

zone with stop at 429.50.

• Gold futures were seen struggling for direction in Wednesday's trade, but the yellow

metal ended just above the psychological $1200 mark. Intraday Strategy: Establish

short positions between 1217-1223 zone, targeting 1198 zone and then aggressive

targets at 1175-1179 zone with stop at 1235.

CURRIENCIES & BONDS:

• In Wednesday's trade, the Indian Rupee rose marginally against the US dollar. The

rupee moved 9 paise higher to close at 72.60 against the greenback. The mild gain

in the rupee against the dollar came after two days of fall.

At the current level, the rupee has declined around 13% against the greenback so

far this year. Data shows the RBI spent $6.2 billion defending the rupee in June. This

eased to $1.8 billion in July when markets stabilised, and is estimated to have

remained around $2 billion in August despite renewed market volatility.

Syngene International Ltd is an innovation focused

global discovery, development and manufacturing

organization providing integrated services to the

pharmaceutical, biotechnology, nutrition, animal

health, consumer goods and specialty chemicals

industries across the world. Syngene’s clientele

include market leaders such as Bristol-Myers Squibb,

Baxter, Amgen, GSK, Zoetis, Merck KGaA and

Herbalife. Its innovative culture is driven by a strong

team of over 3500 scientists working with clients

around the world to improve R&D productivity, while

reducing development time and cost.

Technically, brace yourselves for a major breakout

play from a complex ‘higher consolidation pattern’

on the weekly charts. An impulse uptrend is seen

forming on the daily time scale with recent

sequence of higher high/ higher low pattern, with

positive SAR series, major confirmation above its all-

time-high at 701 mark. The positive takeaway from

recent price action is that the stock price was seen

outperforming, despite broader markets remaining

volatile. Add to that a bullish divergence and a rising

stochastic signal (on weekly charts) with recent

increase in volumes signaling a larger rebound. The

200 days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the

stock on the daily chart is currently at 593. The level

of Rs 593 will act as a strong support and this could

be used to buy aggressively in case of any corrective

declines from current levels.

A potential entrance exists at CMP and on dips

between 593-601 zone, with medium term

perspective, as the stock is likely to run towards 701

mark and then aggressive targets at 745-751 zone.

Place stop below 561. Holding Period: 3 Months.




MACRO WATCH:

• As per Finance Minister Arun Jaitley's statement on September 25; Banks expect to recover about Rs 1.80 lakh crore from overall non-

performing assets (NPAs) through insolvency and other resolution mechanisms.

What Technical Tells Us on Nifty:

Nifty ended with slight losses in yesterday's trade, down 0.12% at 11,053.80 mark.

The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was weak. The BSE Mid-Cap index rose 0.42%. The BSE Small-Cap index rose

0.12%. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex.

Technically speaking, key support for the day on Nifty is at 10,971 mark. The technical landscape will worsen further if Nifty closes below the

10,845 mark as that would open the door to massive technical selling, possibly quickly towards the 10,650-10,751 zone.

The intraday bias is neutral/negative and selling on any corrective strength should be the preferred strategy.

For the day, we believe, Nifty will drift after a higher open with intraday downside targets at 10,971. The make or break hurdles are at 11,521

mark. Intraday hurdles at 11,221 mark.

The price action for Nifty is suggesting that we are likely to see an 10,750-11,451 range in near term with neutral bias.

Bulls Vs. Bears: Time to Pick a Side!!

Volatility likely to be the hallmark of today's trade. Short covering could be the theme ahead of September series expiry on Thursday,

27th September.

Dalal Street will become the poster boy of short-squeeze only if Nifty moves above 11,501 mark.

Preferred trade on Nifty: Nifty (11054): Buy between 10967-11000 zone, targeting 11221 zone and then aggressive targets at 11401-11451

zone with stop at 10845.

Preferred trade on Bank Nifty: Bank Nifty (25376): Buy at CMP, targeting 25751-25901 zone and then at 26251 zone with stop at 24751.

Daily Chart of the day



Comfort stock of the day


When we want to see what's happening far off, we will reach for the binoculars. The binocular helps us to steer out of danger and also accurately spots our targets.

When it comes to trading / investing, that's exactly how Stock Of The Day: (F & O) introduces to the momentum stocks from the list of Future & Option segment, defining their support and resistance levels, and attempts to forecast their movement with a short /medium term perspective.


R2STOCKS LTP S1 S2 R1 TRADING STRATEGYBIAS


Invest Smart. Build Wealth. www.comfortsecurities.co.in


The stock is signalling a major rebound from an oversold conditions on daily charts. Interweek Strategy: Establish long positions between 2245-2255 zone, targeting 2375 and then aggressive targets located at 2425-2453 zone. Stop below 2171.

Britannia is signalling a major rebound from an oversold conditions on daily charts. Interweek Strategy: Establish long positions at CMP, targeting 5951 and then aggressive targets located at 6100-6145 zone. Stop below 5445.

MINDTREE likely to enjoy strong session in today's trade after the stock staged a strong rebound from oversold zone. Key intraday support seen at 1039. Interweek Strategy: Buy between 1051-1061 zone, targeting 1109 and then at 1121-1125 zone. Stop below 1035.

Extremely oversold conditions prevail. Major support seen at 9361 mark. Interweek Strategy: Buy between 9675-9701 zone, targeting 10001 and then aggressive targets at 10151-10201 zone. Stop below 9361.

RELIANCE INDUSTRIES (RIL) enjoyed a strong session in Wednesday's trade, up 1.69%. Key intraday support seen at 1227. Interweek Strategy: Buy between 1227-1235 zone, targeting 1275 and then at 1295-1301 zone. Stop below 1209.

Reliance Industries (RIL) could lead the market recovery! Establish long positions on any dips.

BAJAJ FINANCE

BRITANNIA

MINDTREE

NESTLE

RELIANCE INDUSTRIES (RIL)

2315 2215 2071 2453 2557 Positive

5681.9 5551 5375 5951 6145 Positive

1073.6 1039 1013 1125 1185 Positive

9729 9541 9361 10001 10201 Positive

1251.4 1227 1195 1275 1301 Positive



EQUITY DERIVATIVESLooking into the future from present.

Changes in Open Interest (OI) in yesterday’s trade.

Nifty Spot

Bank Nifty Future

VIX

Premium

Nifty Future OI

Bank Nifty Spot OI

BSE Cash Vol. (Rs. in Cr)

NSE Cash Vol.(Rs. in Cr)

NSE Derivative Vol. (Rs. in Cr)

Index Future Volumes

Stock Future Volumes

Index Option Volumes

Stock Option Volumes

Total

Cash Volumes (INR in Cr.)

YesterdayDay Before Yesterday

Derivatives Vol.(INR in Cr.)

No of contracts

Turnover (Rs. In cr.)

Major Changes in Nifty Options (OI)

Market Summary:

The benchmark Nifty witnessed yet another volatile session, eventually closing on a

negative note, down 0.12%. PSU Banks and IT Index were the major losers. Despite

this negativity, short covering was the theme in some sectors like the Realty Index,

Metal Index and the Energy Index.

Amongst broader indices, the BSE Midcap Index was up 0.42%. The BSE Smallcap

index was up 0.12%. Both the indices outperformed the Sensex.

Amongst the sectoral indices, outperforming the Sensex/Nifty was BSE Metal Index

(up 1.73%), BSE Realty Index (up 1.69%), BSE Capital Goods Index (up 1.23%).

Amongst the sectoral indices, underperforming the Sensex/Nifty were BSE IT Index

(down 1.60%), BSE FMCG Index (down 1.44%), BSE Teck Index (down 1.36%)

Amongst stock specific action, positive bias was seen in stocks like IBHSGFIN (up

6.81%), UPL (up 6.13%), VEDL (up 4.84%)

Among stocks drifting down were: TATA MOTORS (down 3.09%), SBIN (down

2.92%), INFRATEL (down 2.77%)

Maximum Call Open Interest (OI) stands at 11500 Strike Price, followed by 11200

Strike Price for October Series. Profit booking in calls was seen at 11200-11650

strike prices for October Series.

Maximum Put Open Interest (OI) was seen at strike price 11000 followed by 10800

strike price for October series. Put buyingg was seen at 11100 strike price for

October Series.

As per Wednesday’s Provisional Data available on the NSE, FII’s sold shares worth

Rs. 809.95 crores in the Indian Equity Market. DIIs on the other hand bought shares

worth Rs. 1555.44 crores in the Indian Equity market.

Highest OI Nifty: Calls 11500: 20.39 L - Puts 11000: 20.92

Highest OI Bank Nifty: Calls 26500: 3.33 L - Puts 26500: 4.10 L

Change in Stock Open Interest (OI) in previous day’s trade.

Long Buildup: PFC, VEDL, SAIL, JINDALSTEL, RELIANCE.

Short Buildup: TATA MOTORS, ASHOK LEY, INFY, HDFC.

Short Covering: DHFL, INDIACEM, JAIN IRRIGATION, DLF, ENGINSIN.

Long Unwinding: INFIBEAM, COAL INDIA, HEXAWARE.

Stocks banned in F&O segment for today: ADANI POWER, JET AIRWAYS, PNB.

New In Ban: JET AIRWAYS, PNB.

Out of Ban: DHFL.

Future Call: BUY PFC OCTOBER FUTURES at CMP 82.35-82.75

zone. Targets at 85.20 and then at 89. Stop: 81.20. Holding Period:

Intraday. Analyst’s Remark: Rebound Play (PFC October Futures

CMP 83.35).

Option Call: BUY INDIA CEMENTS OCTOBER CE strike price 120 at

CMP 2.55. Profit: Unlimited. Maximum Loss: Rs. 8,925. Stop: Exit

Call Option if India Cements moves below 102. (India Cements

October Futures CMP 109.80).

11053.80 (-0.12%)

25376.30 (+0.18%)

17.0875 (+2.43%)

+42 vs 71

10.37 crores (+59.73%)

7.36 lakhs (+30.72%)

3154.11 4252.04

35572.48 45802.91

1229901 1366255

429878 38258

2049662 131737

10678476 997098

887646 62808

14045662 1229901

Calls in lakhs (% Change)

11100 11.96 (+22%)

11500 20.39 (+22%)

11600 9.41 (+12%)

Puts in lakhs (% Change)

10800 20.69 (+73%)

10600 7.72 (+23%)

10700 9.33 (+22%)


www.comfortsecurities.co.in

DAILY PIVOT TABLE



Instrument Close S1 S2 R1 R2 200 Day SMA Reversal Point Trend

All level indicated above are based on cash market prices.

Pivot Point

PP : Pivot Point : This is trigger point for weekly buy/sell based on the price range of the previous week.R1 : Resistance one : 1st Resistance over PP. R2 : Resistance two : 2nd Resistance over R1.S1 : Support one : 1st support after PP. S2 : Support Two : 2nd support after S1.

As per the tool, the trader should take BUY position just above PP and keep the stop loss of PP and the first target would be R1.If R1 is crossed then R2 becomes the next target with the stop loss at R1.

Similarly if price goes below PP the trader should SELL and keep the PP as Stop loss and the first target would be S1.

If S1 is crossed then S2 becomes the next target with the stop loss at S1.This is a trading tool. The key to use of this tool is the use of STOP LOSS.


NIFTY 11053.8 10982.72 10911.63 11135.22 11216.63 11064.13 10762.26 UP

BANKNIFTY 25376.3 25207.4 25038.5 25535.15 25694 25366.25 26108.82 DOWN

NIFTYMID50 4837.55 4798.27 4758.98 4869.62 4901.68 4830.33 5151.19 DOWN

ACC 1582.15 1557.4 1532.65 1599.5 1616.85 1574.75 1547.63 UP

ADANIENT 136.5 132.63 128.77 141.43 146.37 137.57 128.4 UP

ADANIPORTS 338.55 331.13 323.72 345.43 352.32 338.02 388.97 DOWN

AJANTPHARM 1114.45 1095 1075.55 1132.45 1150.45 1113 1251.73 DOWN

ALBK 37.35 36.9 36.45 38 38.65 37.55 51.06 DOWN

AMARAJABAT 786.45 770.08 753.72 797.83 809.22 781.47 810.88 DOWN

ANDHRABANK 30.25 29.23 28.22 31.08 31.92 30.07 41.33 DOWN

APOLLOTYRE 228.3 224.9 221.5 233.35 238.4 229.95 268.26 DOWN

ARVIND 352.2 344.22 336.23 359.47 366.73 351.48 410.23 DOWN

ASHOKLEY 120.65 119 117.35 122.8 124.95 121.15 134.29 DOWN

ASIANPAINT 1282 1269.5 1257 1299 1316 1286.5 1238.21 UP

AUROPHARMA 759.1 747.77 736.43 777.77 796.43 766.43 628.49 UP

AXISBANK 617.45 611.55 605.65 623.85 630.25 617.95 554.13 UP

BAJAJ-AUTO 2773.3 2741.68 2710.07 2806.83 2840.37 2775.22 2938.75 DOWN

BAJAJFINSV 6212.55 6170.7 6128.85 6271.7 6330.85 6229.85 5723.42 UP

BAJFINANCE 2315.55 2289.12 2262.68 2347.97 2380.38 2321.53 2087.18 UP

BALKRISIND 1104.6 1091.8 1079 1114.2 1123.8 1101.4 1171.46 DOWN

BALRAMCHIN 77.85 74.13 70.42 83.98 90.12 80.27 90.06 DOWN

BANKBARODA 109.15 107.28 105.42 111.13 113.12 109.27 143.17 DOWN

BANKINDIA 83.85 81.93 80.02 85.58 87.32 83.67 114.97 DOWN

BATAINDIA 956.5 947.38 938.27 966.73 976.97 957.62 810.67 UP

BEL 84.2 79.53 74.87 87.58 90.97 82.92 135.02 DOWN

BEML 661.2 644.65 628.1 675.25 689.3 658.7 1081.96 DOWN

BERGEPAINT 295.65 290.38 285.12 303.43 311.22 298.17 278.8 UP

BHARATFIN 1063 1052.2 1041.4 1069.7 1076.4 1058.9 1109.35 DOWN

BHARATFORG 625 618.37 611.73 631.52 638.03 624.88 690.47 DOWN

BHARTIARTL 361.3 357.3 353.3 365.15 369 361.15 410.85 DOWN

BHEL 72.15 71.65 71.15 72.75 73.35 72.25 83.51 DOWN

BIOCON 706.6 695.9 685.2 717.65 728.7 706.95 604.25 UP

BPCL 368.65 363.07 357.48 372.52 376.38 366.93 422.11 DOWN

BRITANNIA 5681.9 5596.27 5510.63 5821.27 5960.63 5735.63 5503.59 UP

CANBK 235.15 231.63 228.12 238.33 241.52 234.82 286.2 DOWN

CANFINHOME 248.65 243.02 237.38 257.32 265.98 251.68 410.18 DOWN

CAPF 519.2 508.32 497.43 527.97 536.73 517.08 625 DOWN

CASTROLIND 149.55 148.42 147.28 151.47 153.38 150.33 181.15 DOWN

CEATLTD 1235.9 1225.6 1215.3 1246.1 1256.3 1235.8 1525.5 DOWN

CENTURYTEX 876.8 863.55 850.3 888.25 899.7 875 1107.15 DOWN

CESC 905.8 890.08 874.37 918.63 931.47 902.92 996.27 DOWN

CHENNPETRO 271.6 265.03 258.47 281.58 291.57 275.02 338.28 DOWN

CHOLAFIN 1215.55 1199.4 1183.25 1235.85 1256.15 1219.7 1453.58 DOWN

CIPLA 672.8 660.78 648.77 680.03 687.27 668.02 600.67 UP

COALINDIA 272.55 269.5 266.45 276.3 280.05 273.25 281.26 DOWN

COLPAL 1097.45 1087.18 1076.92 1110.33 1123.22 1100.07 1124.18 DOWN

CONCOR 628.65 616.82 604.98 636.67 644.68 624.83 657.36 DOWN

CUMMINSIND 692.45 687.7 682.95 699.1 705.75 694.35 763.34 DOWN

DABUR 436.45 431.55 426.65 441.85 447.25 436.95 375.86 UP

DALMIABHA 2430.15 2412.27 2394.38 2453.47 2476.78 2435.58 2758.66 DOWN

DCBBANK 153.6 150.67 147.73 156.47 159.33 153.53 176.61 DOWN

DHFL 305.45 281.63 257.82 324.63 343.82 300.82 589.83 DOWN

DISHTV 57.05 55.67 54.28 59.07 61.08 57.68 72.86 DOWN

DIVISLAB 1385.35 1362.6 1339.85 1416.55 1447.75 1393.8 1120.02 UP

DLF 182.6 177.67 172.73 186.22 189.83 181.28 214.74 DOWN

DRREDDY 2600.85 2573.17 2545.48 2646.37 2691.88 2618.68 2238.74 UP

EICHERMOT 25180.75 24771.02 24361.28 25920.46 26660.18 25510.73 28750.04 DOWN

ENGINERSIN 122.1 119.58 117.07 123.53 124.97 121.02 152.06 DOWN

EQUITAS 133.65 130.55 127.45 137 140.35 133.9 147.8 DOWN

ESCORTS 662.55 655.37 648.18 672.37 682.18 665.18 856.9 DOWN

EXIDEIND 273.6 261.5 249.4 280.95 288.3 268.85 244.14 UP

FEDERALBNK 71.5 70.25 69 72.85 74.2 71.6 91.77 DOWN

FORTIS 132.05 129.85 127.65 135.8 139.55 133.6 145.3 DOWN

GAIL 375.1 369.73 364.37 381.23 387.37 375.87 351.81 UP

GLENMARK 654.25 643.63 633.02 662.08 669.92 651.47 576.67 UP

GMRINFRA 17.55 16.98 16.42 17.88 18.22 17.32 18.64 DOWN

GODREJCP 772.4 758.4 744.4 792 811.6 778 793.09 DOWN

GODREJIND 533.4 521.57 509.73 547.42 561.43 535.58 589.18 DOWN

GRANULES 102.95 100.45 97.95 105 107.05 102.5 108.4 DOWN

GRASIM 1044.9 1035.57 1026.23 1052.12 1059.33 1042.78 1077.31 DOWN

GSFC 98.35 96.83 95.32 100.33 102.32 98.82 124.7 DOWN

HAVELLS 646.5 628.15 609.8 656.95 667.4 638.6 564.62 UP

HCC 11.95 11.52 11.08 12.27 12.58 11.83 23.38 DOWN

HCLTECH 1090.15 1076.58 1063.02 1112.28 1134.42 1098.72 959.54 UP

HDFC 1767.45 1746.93 1726.42 1797.13 1826.82 1776.62 1854.32 DOWN

HDFCBANK 1968.2 1956.33 1944.47 1979.03 1989.87 1967.17 1982.34 DOWN

HDIL 22.95 22.48 22.02 23.18 23.42 22.72 37.73 DOWN

HEROMOTOCO 3100.05 3077.83 3055.62 3131.13 3162.22 3108.92 3525.73 DOWN

HEXAWARE 435.85 419.93 404.02 449.83 463.82 433.92 410.54 UP

HINDALCO 247.95 242.78 237.62 251.73 255.52 246.57 236.17 UP

HINDPETRO 248 243.4 238.8 250.75 253.5 246.15 330.95 DOWN

HINDUNILVR 1610.75 1589.5 1568.25 1640.5 1670.25 1619.25 1502.66 UP

HINDZINC 306.8 301.67 296.53 310.57 314.33 305.43 299.24 UP

IBREALEST 113.4 109.83 106.27 117.23 121.07 113.67 185.76 DOWN

IBULHSGFIN 999.8 945.67 891.53 1038.27 1076.73 984.13 1235.6 DOWN

ICICIBANK 313.1 307.03 300.97 317.23 321.37 311.17 304.67 UP

ICICIPRULI 343.65 339.17 334.68 349.07 354.48 344.58 396.68 DOWN

ICIL 69.9 68.07 66.23 71.77 73.63 69.93 90.51 DOWN

IDBI 52.5 51.52 50.53 53.32 54.13 52.33 63.17 DOWN

IDEA 41.45 40.5 39.55 42.1 42.75 41.15 70.76 DOWN

IDFC 42.4 41.47 40.53 43.07 43.73 42.13 52.24 DOWN

IDFCBANK 38.25 37.63 37.02 38.88 39.52 38.27 47.42 DOWN

IFCI 12.85 12.58 12.32 13.18 13.52 12.92 20.34 DOWN

IGL 267.75 261.33 254.92 274.53 281.32 268.12 288.83 DOWN

INDIACEM 109.05 107.2 105.35 110.7 112.35 108.85 140.17 DOWN

INDIANB 239.2 234.65 230.1 243.7 248.2 239.15 335.87 DOWN

INDIGO 853.2 839.6 826 862.9 872.6 849.3 1176.88 DOWN

INDUSINDBK 1701.8 1683.37 1664.93 1716.37 1730.93 1697.93 1824.05 DOWN

INFIBEAM 214.85 209.67 204.48 219.57 224.28 214.38 168.86 UP

INFY 717.85 709.28 700.72 729.13 740.42 720.57 609.42 UP

IOC 154.45 152.43 150.42 156.33 158.22 154.32 174.64 DOWN

IRB 141.35 137.45 133.55 144.05 146.75 140.15 221.48 DOWN

ITC 293.15 287.6 282.05 300.85 308.55 295.3 276.55 UP

JETAIRWAYS 192.05 187.73 183.42 196.63 201.22 192.32 530.55 DOWN

JINDALSTEL 230.8 225.07 219.33 234.92 239.03 229.18 228.72 UP

JISLJALEQS 76.25 75.33 74.42 77.33 78.42 76.42 104.48 DOWN

JPASSOCIAT 7.4 7.05 6.7 7.7 8 7.35 16.94 DOWN

JSWENERGY 62.9 61.63 60.37 65.03 67.17 63.77 76.13 DOWN

JSWSTEEL 408.1 402.15 396.2 412.9 417.7 406.95 316.48 UP

JUBLFOOD 1292 1267.63 1243.27 1311.38 1330.77 1287.02 1210.69 UP

JUSTDIAL 506.05 495.6 485.15 515.75 525.45 505.3 512.18 DOWN

KOTAKBANK 1169.4 1157.58 1145.77 1184.93 1200.47 1173.12 1183.06 DOWN

KPIT 247.55 223.78 200.02 270.18 292.82 246.42 246.19 UP

KSCL 620.05 603.77 587.48 630.57 641.08 614.28 541.35 UP

KTKBANK 102.1 100.1 98.1 103.65 105.2 101.65 126.3 DOWN

L&TFH 132.15 128.45 124.75 136.5 140.85 132.8 167.08 DOWN

LICHSGFIN 433 427.07 421.13 441.47 449.93 435.53 522.01 DOWN

LT 1332.65 1315.5 1298.35 1343.3 1353.95 1326.15 1318.85 UP

LUPIN 891.75 881.77 871.78 905.87 919.98 895.88 840.82 UP

M&M 893.35 879.82 866.28 912.37 931.38 898.83 835.41 UP

M&MFIN 421.9 413.43 404.97 430.18 438.47 421.72 470.83 DOWN

MANAPPURAM 79.5 78.38 77.27 80.28 81.07 79.17 107.99 DOWN

MARICO 339.7 333.38 327.07 346.33 352.97 340.02 328.7 UP

MARUTI 7842.55 7746.77 7650.98 8014.12 8185.68 7918.33 9027.17 DOWN

MCDOWELL-N 533.7 525.9 518.1 543 552.3 535.2 651.87 DOWN

MCX 752.25 731.77 711.28 767.87 783.48 747.38 807.38 DOWN

MGL 831 819.77 808.53 840.07 849.13 828.83 936.12 DOWN

MOTHERSUMI 257.9 245.6 233.3 268.75 279.6 256.45 327.4 DOWN

MRF 66318.55 65749.7 65180.85 66937.7 67556.85 66368.85 73276.05 DOWN

MRPL 75.1 73.18 71.27 76.38 77.67 74.47 102.65 DOWN

MUTHOOTFIN 432.7 419.27 405.83 441.87 451.03 428.43 416.47 UP

NATIONALUM 66.75 65.97 65.18 67.77 68.78 66.98 71.71 DOWN

NBCC 64.1 63.4 62.7 64.8 65.5 64.1 94.09 DOWN

NCC 80.45 79.57 78.68 81.32 82.18 80.43 113.16 DOWN

NMDC 117.25 113.87 110.48 119.27 121.28 115.88 121.14 DOWN

NTPC 167.8 165.33 162.87 170.93 174.07 168.47 166.43 UP

OFSS 3960.65 3860.43 3760.22 4100.73 4240.82 4000.52 4010.56 DOWN

OIL 218.4 214.3 210.2 223.75 229.1 219.65 224.57 DOWN

ONGC 180.6 178.1 175.6 183.95 187.3 181.45 178.39 UP

ORIENTBANK 67.25 65.8 64.35 68.45 69.65 67 92.76 DOWN

PEL 2534.85 2501.6 2468.35 2575.7 2616.55 2542.45 2647.17 DOWN

PETRONET 224.95 219.57 214.18 228.27 231.58 222.88 232.09 DOWN

PFC 82.8 81.2 79.6 83.8 84.8 82.2 92.7 DOWN

PIDILITIND 1076.1 1058.03 1039.97 1105.08 1134.07 1087.02 1012.99 UP

PNB 67.05 65.8 64.55 68.75 70.45 67.5 108.34 DOWN

POWERGRID 192.85 189.37 185.88 195.17 197.48 191.68 196.45 DOWN

PTC 70 68.57 67.13 70.97 71.93 69.53 91.97 DOWN

PVR 1285.4 1265.97 1246.53 1296.92 1308.43 1277.48 1340.26 DOWN

RAMCOCEM 654.35 641.97 629.58 664.37 674.38 651.98 738.23 DOWN

RAYMOND 727.55 718.9 710.25 735.35 743.15 726.7 950.63 DOWN

RBLBANK 536.25 524.07 511.88 543.42 550.58 531.23 529.06 UP

RCOM 12.9 11.87 10.83 13.57 14.23 12.53 19.81 DOWN

RECLTD 102.25 100.13 98.02 103.58 104.92 101.47 126.6 DOWN

RELCAPITAL 317.95 311.48 305.02 324.13 330.32 317.67 439.2 DOWN

RELIANCE 1251.4 1234.38 1217.37 1261.18 1270.97 1244.17 1007.37 UP

RELINFRA 321.15 313.77 306.38 327.47 333.78 320.08 442.68 DOWN

REPCOHOME 439.95 425.22 410.48 455.87 471.78 441.13 592.45 DOWN

RPOWER 27.25 26.67 26.08 27.82 28.38 27.23 38.34 DOWN

SAIL 76.2 75.02 73.83 77.22 78.23 76.03 80.28 DOWN

SBIN 263.85 259.73 255.62 270.98 278.12 266.87 277.58 DOWN

SHREECEM 17442.25 16994.96 16547.68 17698.02 17953.78 17250.73 17078.18 UP

SIEMENS 945.7 929.23 912.77 956.93 968.17 940.47 1092.69 DOWN

SOUTHBANK 14.55 14.33 14.12 14.73 14.92 14.52 24.52 DOWN

SREINFRA 40.05 38.95 37.85 41.55 43.05 40.45 75.46 DOWN

SRF 1888.9 1868.67 1848.43 1921.57 1954.23 1901.33 1913.92 DOWN

SRTRANSFIN 1188.95 1164.67 1140.38 1209.07 1229.18 1184.78 1397.29 DOWN

STAR 480.9 470.43 459.97 487.43 493.97 476.97 578.7 DOWN

SUNPHARMA 639.85 631.67 623.48 648.92 657.98 640.73 552.22 UP

SUNTV 635 626.73 618.47 649.38 663.77 641.12 876.93 DOWN

SUZLON 6.2 5.97 5.73 6.42 6.63 6.18 10.48 DOWN

SYNDIBANK 33.35 32.8 32.25 33.95 34.55 33.4 55.26 DOWN

TATACHEM 699 691.82 684.63 709.57 720.13 702.38 718.55 DOWN

TATACOMM 510.3 501.5 492.7 518.1 525.9 509.3 612.5 DOWN

TATAELXSI 1186.85 1163.68 1140.52 1224.48 1262.12 1201.32 1174.92 UP

TATAGLOBAL 234.25 231.17 228.08 238.67 243.08 235.58 268.79 DOWN

TATAMOTORS 233.35 227.53 221.72 241.18 249.02 235.37 328.11 DOWN

TATAMTRDVR 123.05 120.6 118.15 127.05 131.05 124.6 185.99 DOWN

TATAPOWER 70.25 69.12 67.98 71.17 72.08 70.03 81.33 DOWN

TATASTEEL 608.9 599.88 590.87 616.03 623.17 607.02 614.28 DOWN

TCS 2142.15 2118.5 2094.85 2182.4 2222.65 2158.75 1691.69 UP

TECHM 748.85 735.88 722.92 764.98 781.12 752.02 641 UP

TITAN 814.7 804.57 794.43 822.42 830.13 812.28 882.35 DOWN

TV18BRDCST 37.65 36.7 35.75 38.9 40.15 37.95 55.86 DOWN

TVSMOTOR 584.35 576.97 569.58 592.87 601.38 585.48 629.17 DOWN

UBL 1418.2 1378.37 1338.53 1453.72 1489.23 1413.88 1144.83 UP

UJJIVAN 282.9 277.7 272.5 289 295.1 283.8 374.75 DOWN

ULTRACEMCO 4067.55 4027.45 3987.35 4105 4142.45 4064.9 4080.52 DOWN

UNIONBANK 70.6 69.27 67.93 71.87 73.13 70.53 102.32 DOWN

VEDL 241.55 232.5 223.45 247.8 254.05 238.75 273.75 DOWN

VGUARD 181.35 178.68 176.02 185.33 189.32 182.67 221.53 DOWN

VOLTAS 571.55 562.77 553.98 582.57 593.58 573.78 594.85 DOWN

WIPRO 319.25 314.12 308.98 326.67 334.08 321.53 288.35 UP

WOCKPHARMA 584.1 568.65 553.2 593.4 602.7 577.95 728.08 DOWN

YESBANK 223.75 217.23 210.72 230.03 236.32 223.52 335 DOWN

ZEEL 448.7 444.28 439.87 452.73 456.77 448.32 555.12 DOWN



Comfort ‘Forecast and Analysis’

Forecast and Analysis is a daily newsletter that provides technical update on all the major instruments of the world like Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, US Dollar Index and USD/INR. We define their support and resistance levels and attempt to forecast their movement with a short / medium term perspective. Also in the report, a trader will find bias for the mentioned instruments.

This newsletter is also quite popular with a market participant who loves to have insight & theme on MCX Gold, MCX Silver as well MCX Crude-Oil.

Forecast and Analysis

Instrument TRADING STRATEGYLTP S1 S2 R1 R2 Bias


MCX GOLD

MCX SILVER

MCX CRUDE OIL

MCX COPPER

MCX NATURAL GAS

USD-INR

Forecast and Analysis …Direction at a glance



Major weakness below 29991. Hurdles seen at 30901. Interweek Strategy: Establish long positions between 30445-30525 zone, targeting 31101 and then at 31500-31801 zone. Stop 29991.

Interweek Strategy: Establish buy positions at CMP, targeting 38771 and then aggressive targets located at at 39251-39525 zone. Stop 36901.

Intraday strategy: Establish long positions between 5051-5075 zone, targeting 5305 and then at 5405-5445 zone with stop at 5051.

Interweek strategy: Establish long positions on dips between 445-449 zone, targeting 461 and then finally at 475-475 zone with stop at 429.50.

Interweek Strategy: Buy between 213-215 zone, targeting 225 and then at 229-231 zone with stop below 209.

Overbought conditions seen prevailing. Interweek strategy: Establish long position only on any sharp declines between 72.05-7210 zone, targeting 73.05 and then aggressive targets at 74.50-75 zone with stop at 70.21.

30647 30445 29991 31101 31800 Neutral

37950 37871 37101 38771 39529 Positive

5230 5051 4895 5305 5445 Positive

457 445 431 461 479 Positive

221.80 213.00 205.00 225.00 231.00 Positive

72.61 72.05 70.25 73.05 75.00 Positive

MCX Copper: Establish long positions on any early declines. Positive bias to continue.

Instrument TRADING STRATEGYLTP S1 S2 R1 R2


GOLD $

SILVER ($)

WTI CRUDE OIL ($ )

EUR/USD

Forecast and Analysis …Sailing global trend

Bias

DOW JONES

US Dollar Index



Crude-Oil prices at 4-year high after OPEC refuses Trump demand to lower oil prices.

Intraday Strategy: Establish short positions between 1217-1223 zone, targeting 1198 zone and then aggressive targets at 1175-1179 zone with stop at 1235.

Intraday Strategy: Establish short positions between 14.75-14.89 zone, targeting 14.05 zone and then aggressive targets at 13.45-13.55 zone with stop at 15.39.

Intraday Strategy: Establish long positions between 70.45-71.05 zone, targeting 73.05 zone and then at 75 with stop at 68.21.

The EUR/USD was seen drifting in Wednesday's trade. Technically, the bias continues to be neutral with initial downside risk at 1.1501. Hurdles continue to be at 1.1900. Selling on strength should be the preferred trading strategy.

The U.S Dollar was seen struggling for direction in Wednesday's trade. We shift our bias to neutral on the US Dollar Index. Hurdles at 97.50. Downside well supported at 92.50. Major weakness now only below 92.50.

At the time of writing, Wall Street was attempting to stay in green as investors held off on making big bets ahead of a closely watched meeting by the Federal Reserve. Concerns about continuing trade tensions also lingered. The near term bias continues to be positive.

1201 1189 1175 1223 1233 Neutral

14.47 14.05 13.45 15.27 15.95 Neutral

71.95 70.45 68.25 73.05 75 Positive

1.1749 1.1501 1.1215 1.1801 1.1900 Neutral

94.21 92.50 90.00 97.50 99.00 Neutral

26565 25445 23501 27001 27901 Positive


DAILY PIVOT TABLE



CommodityExchange Close S1 S2 R1 R2200 Day

SMA Reversal

Point Trend

MCX ALUMINUM

MCX CARDAMOM

NCDEX CASTOR

NCDEX CHANA

MCX COPPER

MCX COTTON

MCX CRUDE-OIL

MCX GOLD

NCDEX GAUR GUM

NCDEX GAUR SEED

NCDEX JEERA

MCX LEAD

MCX MENTHA OIL

MCX NATURAL GAS

MCX NICKLE

NCDEX RM SEED

MCX SILVER

NCDEX SUGAR

NCDEX SOYA BEAN

MCX ZINC

148.85 147.07 145.28 149.82 150.78 144.65 150.55 DOWN

1423.2 1413.8 1404.4 1434.3 1445.4 1079.71 1374.5 DOWN

4681 4653.33 4625.67 4724.33 4767.67 4271.28 4645 UP

3962 3920.33 3878.67 3991.33 4020.67 3830.51 3809 UP

457.35 453.65 449.95 460.7 464.05 446.02 443.6 UP

22290 22146.67 22003.33 22406.67 22523.33 21391.65 22620 UP

5271 5240.33 5209.67 5303.33 5335.67 4443.33 5116 UP

30819 30750.33 30681.67 30867.33 30915.67 30339.79 30496 UP

9182 9079.33 8976.67 9271.33 9360.67 8873.32 9617 UP

4281.5 4239.67 4197.83 4314.67 4347.83 4114.73 4405 DOWN

19005 18756.67 18508.33 19221.67 19438.33 17686.25 20120 DOWN

145.5 144.5 143.5 147.25 149 157.19 142.65 DOWN

1651.8 1625.6 1599.4 1676.5 1701.2 1471.95 1776.8 UP

224.4 222.67 220.93 225.27 226.13 190.15 214.6 UP

936.9 928.03 919.17 943.33 949.77 911.99 895 UP

4210 4196.67 4183.33 4220.67 4231.33 4022 4146 UP

38242 37766 37290 38554 38866 38739.35 36820 UP

3050 3050 3050 3050 3050 3614.83 3015 UP

3294 3271.67 3249.33 3314.67 3335.33 3491.9 3184 UP

183.4 181.77 180.13 185.12 186.83 202.56 175.15 UP



DISCLAIMER: This is solely for information of clients of Comfort Securities Ltd. and does not construe to be an investment advice. It is also not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase and sale of any financial instruments. Any action taken by you on the basis of the information contained herein is your responsibility alone and Comfort Securities Ltd. its subsidiaries or its employees or associates will not be liable in any manner for the consequences of such action taken by you. We have exercised due diligence in checking the correctness and authenticity of the information contained in this recommendation, but Comfort Securities Ltd. or any of its subsidiaries or associates or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this recommendation or any action taken on basis of this information.

Technical analysis studies market psychology, price patterns and volume levels. It is used to forecast future price and market movements. Technical analysis is complementary to fundamental analysis and news sources. The recommendations issued herewith might be contrary to recommendations issued by Comfort Securities Ltd. in the company research undertaken as the recommendations stated in this report is derived purely from technical analysis. Comfort Securities Ltd. has based this document on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable but which it has not independently verified; Comfort Securities Ltd. makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. The opinions contained within the report are based upon publicly available information at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. The information and any disclosures provided herein are in summary form and have been prepared for informational purposes. The recommendations and suggested price levels are intended purely for trading purposes. The recommendations are valid for the day of the report however trading trends and volumes might vary substantially on an intraday basis and the recommendations may be subject to change. The information and any disclosures provided herein may be considered confidential. Any use, distribution, modification, copying, forwarding or disclosure by any person is strictly prohibited. The information and any disclosures provided herein do not constitute a solicitation or offer to purchase or sell any security or other financial product or instrument. The current performance may be unaudited. Past performance does not guarantee future returns. There can be no assurance that investments will achieve any targeted rates of return, and there is no guarantee against the loss of your entire investment.

POTENTIAL CONFLICT OF INTEREST DISCLOSURE (as on date of report)Disclosure of interest statement – • Analyst interest of the stock /Instrument(s): - No. • Firm interest of the stock / Instrument (s): - No.

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comfort securities limited daily research reports · 2018-09-27 · on investments in equity...

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