comm 4 2010 short open

8/8/2019 COMM 4 2010 Short Open

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Statistical Publications

Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics

Shipping Statisticsand Market Review

Market Review

Analytical FocusWorld Merchant Fleet

World Bulk Carrier MarketWorld Tanker Market

World Container and General Cargo Shipping

World Merchant Fleet by Ownership PatternsWorld Passenger and Cruise Shipping/ISL Cruise Fleet Register

World Shipbuilding and ShipbuildersMajor Shipping NationsWorld Seaborne Trade and World Port Traf c

Volume 53 No 4 - 2009


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Abbreviations/Symbols www.isl.org

2 SSMR April 200 9

AbbreviationsARA Antwerp/Rotterdam/Amsterdam range

AWES Association of West European Shipbuilders

b/d Barrels per day

BHP Brake horsepower

cgt Compensated gross tonnage

cif Cost, insurance, freightCIS Commonwealth of Independent States

COD Country of Domicile

CPE Centrally-planned Economies

CPI Consumer price index

cST Centi Stokes

cu.m Cubic metres (also m3)

DB Double bottom

DC Developing Countries

DH Double hull

DIS Danish International Ship Register

DME Developed market economies

DS Double sides

dwt Deadweight tons

d/y Day/year

ECB European Central Bank

EMEs Emerging Market Economies

EU European Union

FY Fiscal year

FAO Food and Agriculture Organizationof the United Nations

fio Free in and out

fob Free on board

FT Freight tons

ft Foot

GATT General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade

gt Gross tonnageHP Horsepower

HT Harbour ton

ibf Intermediate bunker fuel

IEA International Energy Agency

IMF International Monetary Fund

IMO International Maritime Organization

in. Inch

ITF International Transport Workers Federation

km Kilometre

loa Length overall

lbs Pounds

LDT Light displacement tons

LDC Less Developed CountriesLNG Liquefied Natural Gas

LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas

LR/Fairplay Lloyds Register - Fairplay

LT Long ton

m Metre

mbd Million barrel per day

mdo Marine diesel oil

MED Mediterranean

MfA Marine fishing area

mill Million

M/T Motor tanker

MT Metric tons

mtd per ton fob delivered

mth Month

mtw Per ton ex wharf

n.a. Not available

NDRF National Defence Reserve Fleet

n.e.c. Not elsewhere classified

neg. Negligible

NIS Norwegian International Ship Register

no Number

NODC Non-oil Producing Developing Countries

nrt Net register tonnage

nt Net tonnage

NWE,NW Northwest Europe

o.a. Over all

OBO Ore/bulk/oil carrier

OECD Organization for EconomicCooperation and Development

O/O Ore/oil carrier

OPEC Organization of PetroleumExporting Countries

OR Ordinary Register

P/C Products carrier

Pr/OBO Product/ore-bulk-oil carrier

r RevisedRo/ro Roll-on/roll-off

RT Revenue ton

SAR Special administration region

SBT Ship segregated ballast tanks

SDR Special drawing rights

SSMR ISL Shipping Statistics and Market Review

ST Short ton

t Ton/tonne

TB Tug/barge

TEU Twenty feet equivalent unit

TKB Tanker barge

T/S Tanker/steam

T/T Tanker/turbineULCC Ultra large crude carrier

USAC United States Atlantic Coast

USD US Dollar

VLCC Very large crude carrier

WS Worldscale

WTO World Trade Organization

YR, YRS Year, Years

Symbols... Data not available

- Nil

0/0.0 Less than half of unit employed

1995-2004 From 1995 to 2004 inclusive

2002/03 Crop year, fiscal year etc., beginning

in 2002 and terminating in 2003

Billions means a thousand million

Detailed items in tables do not necessarily add to totalsbecause of rounding

For further explanation (e.g. Glossary)please visit: www.isl.org/infoline


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Comment - World bulk carrier fleet

SSMR April 20 10

www.isl.org

This short comment is an excerpt from the Analytical Comment published in the

ISL Shipping Statistics and Market Review (SSMR) No 4-20 10 .

The SSMR includes detailed statistical information concerning the analytical focusand provides approx. 30 monthly/quarterly market indicators (Market Review).For more information compare attached contents

If you are interested in the complete publication covering alldetails (tables & figures), please contact our subscriptiondepartment [email protected] or you can order it via ourwebshop www.isl.org/shop

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored ina retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic,photocopying, recording or otherwise, without prior permission of theeditors.ISL does not guarantee the accuracy of the information contained in "ISL

Shipping Statistics and Market Review (SSMR)" (this is also true for the ShortComment ) nor does it accept responsibility for errors or omissions or their consequences.


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Contents Comment and Statistical Tables www.isl.org

SSMR April 2010 3

Page

ISL Comment World Bulk Carrier Market

(1) W ORLD BULK CARRIER F LEET

1.1 Bulk Carrier Fleet Development .......... ........... ............ ........... ........... ........... ........... .. 51.2 Age Profile of the World Bulk Carrier Fleet ............ ........... ........... ........... ........... ......... 51.3 Size Dimensions of the World Bulk Carrier Fleet .......... ........... ........... ........... ........... ... 61.4 Ownership Patterns of the World Bulk Carrier Fleet ........... ............ ........... ........... ........ 7

(2) FUNDAMENTALS OF THE BULK CARRIER MARKET

2.1 Major Dry Bulk Commodities Production, Consumption and Trade Patterns ........... ....... 82.2 Global Insight Major Bulk Commodities Outlook Until 2012 ........... ........... ........... ....... 92.3 Seaborne Bulk Trade Development ..... ........... .......... ........... ........... ........... .......... ..... 102.4 Dry Bulk Port Traffic Regional Highlights 2010 .......... ........... ........... ............ ........... .. 102.5 Dry Bulk Market Freight Rates and Prices .......... ........... ........... ........... .......... .......... 12

(3) FUTURE BULK CARRIER TONNAGE S UPPLY

3 Future Bulk Carrier Tonnage Supply ................. .......... ........... ........... ........... .......... ... 13

(4) THE S HIPBUILDING MARKET FOR BULK CARRIERS

4.1 New Orders and Order Book Development ......... ........... .......... ........... ........... ........... .. 144.2 Leading Shipbuilding Countries ............ ............ .......... ........... ........... ........... .......... ... 15

S UMMARY TABLES - COMMENT

Tab. 1 World Bulk Carrier Fleet by Type 2006 and 2010 ........... ........... ........... ........... ............ 5Tab. 2 World Bulk Carrier Fleet Tonnage Reductions by Type 2004 2009 ............. ........... .... 5Tab. 3 World Bulk Carrier Fleet Additions (Newbuildings) by Type 2006-2009 .......... ............ .. 6Tab. 4 World Bulk Carrier Fleet and Order Book by Size 2010 ............ ............ ........... ........... .. 6Tab. 5 Largest Bulk Carriers by Type 2010 ........... ........... ........... ........... ........... ........... ....... 6Tab. 6 World Bulk Carrier Fleet Top Registered Flags 2006 and 2010 ........... ........... ........... ... 7Tab. 7 World Bulk Carrier Tonnage Registered for Panama and Hong Kong According to Countries of

Domicile 2006, 2009 and 2010 ........... ........... ........... ........... ........... ........... ........... ... 7Tab. 8 World Bulk Carrier Fleet Controlled Tonnage of Major Shipping Nations 2006-2010 ....... 8Tab. 9 World Seaborne Foreign Trade by Major Bulk Commodities and Regions 2002 2007

and Outlook 2012 ........... ........... ........... ........... ............ ........... ........... ........... ......... 10Tab. 10 World Seaborne Dry Bulk Trade by Major Commodities 2007 and

Average Growth Rates 1991-2007 .......... ........... ........... ........... .......... ........... ........... . 10Tab. 11 Dry Bulk Traffic of Major Ports by Exporting and Importing Areas 1997-2007 ........... ....... 11Tab. 12 Total Coal and Iron Ore Trade in the Worlds Largest Dry Bulk Ports by Port

Regions 2004-2009 .............. ........... ........... .......... ............ ........... ............ ........... ...... 12Tab. 13 Coal and Iron Ore Imports of Major European Ports 2004-2009 ............. ........... ............ 12Tab. 14 Rate Level for Benchmark Bulk Carrier Trades 12/2007-12/2009 and 03/2010 ............. .. 13Tab. 15 Demolition and Contracting Prices of Capesize Bulk Carriers 1998 - 2009 ........... ............ 13Tab. 16 World Bulk Carrier Order Book by Type 2006 2010 ............. ........... ............ ........... .... 14Tab. 17 World Bulk Carrier Order Book by Major Countries of Build 2006 and 2010 ............... ...... 15Tab. 18 Bulk Carrier Order Book - Delivery Schedule by Major Countries of Build 2010 ............. ... 15

FIGURES - COMMENT

Fig. 1 World Bulk Carrier Fleet Annual Tonnage Changes 1991- 2010 ............... ........... ........ 5Fig. 2 World Bulk Carrier Fleet Tonnage Additions and Reductions 1994 2009 ............ ........ 5Fig. 3 World Bulk Carrier Fleet Size Development 1991 2010 ............. ........... ........... ........ 6Fig. 4 Bulk Carrier Fleet - Tonnage Development of Major Shipping Nations 2006-2010 ........... . 8Fig. 5 World Steel Production by Area 1994-2006 .......... ........... ........... ........... ........... .......... 8Fig. 6 Overview on Major Commodity Markets 1997-2006 ........... ........... ........... ........... ........ 9Fig. 7 World Seaborne Trade of Major Dry Bulk Commodities 1980 2009 .......... ........... ......... 10Fig. 8 World Seaborne Trade of Iron Ore and Coal by Major Regions/Countries 2002-2002 ........ 11Fig. 9 Total Coal and Iron Ore Trade in the Worlds largest Dry Bulk Ports

by Port Regions 2004-2009 ............ ........... ........... ........... ............ ........... ........... ...... 12Fig. 10 Development of Dry Bulk Voyage Rates on the Tubarao to China Trade

January 2002 March 2010 ............. ........... ........... ........... ........... ............ ........... .... 13Fig. 11 Monthly Development of Bulk Indices 2002-2010 .......... ........... ........... ........... ............ 13Fig. 12 World Bulk Carrier Fleet - Share of the Ordered Tonnage on the Existing Fleet 1998-2010 14Fig. 13 Bulk Carrier Fleet - New Orders and Broken-up Tonnage, Quarterly 2001 2010 .......... .. 14Fig. 14 World Bulk Carrier Order Book, Quarterly 2002 2010 ............. ........... ........... ............ 14

ISL InfoLine Special World Bulk Carrier Market 15-18

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4 SSMR April 2010

ISL Statistical Tables World Bulk Carrier Market

(1) TOTAL BULK CARRIER FLEET

1.1 Key Figures on World Bulk Carrier Fleet by Type and Size Class 2010 ............. ............. .. 191.2 World Bulk Carrier Fleet Development by Type 2006 - 2010 .............. ............ ........... .... 201.3 Total Bulk Carrier Fleet by Ownership Patterns ..................................................... 211.3.1 Total Bulk Carrier Fleet by Major Flags 2009 and 2010 ............ ........... ............ ........... .. 21

1.3.2 Total Bulk Carrier Fleet by Country of Domicile 2010 ........... ........... .......... ........... ........ 221.3.3 Total Bulk Carrier Fleet by Registered Flag and Country of DomicileAccording to Country Groups and Type 2006 and 2010 .......... ............ ........... ........... .... 23

1.3.4 Total Bulk Carrier Fleet by Registered Flag and Country of DomicileAccording to Regions and Type 2006 and 2010 ............. ........... ........... ........... ............ 24

1.3.5 Total Bulk Carriers by Country Groups and Division of Age 2010 ............ ........... ............ 251.3.6 Total Bulk Carriers Additions to Fleet by Top Countries of Domicile During 2006 - 2009 .... 251.3.7 Total Bulk Carriers by Size Class and Division of Age and Deliveries up to 2011 .............. 261.3.8 Total Bulk Carriers Fleet - Size Dimensions 2010 ........... ........... ........... ............ ........... 261.4 Broken-up Bulk Carriers ........................................................ ................................ 271.4.1 Broken-up Bulk Carriers by Type January 1998 - December 2009 .............. ........... ........ 271.4.2 Broken-up Bulk Carriers by Major Flags 1998 - 2009 ........... ........... .......... ........... ........ 271.4.3 Broken-up Bulk Carriers by Size Class 1998 - 2009 ........... ........... ........... .......... .......... 27

(2) BULK MARKET - S HIPPING COSTS AND PRICES

2.1 Second Hand Prices of Bulk Carriers, Average Values 1999 - 2009 ............. ........... ........ 28

2.2 Contracting Prices for Newbuildings 1999 - 2009 ........... ........... ........... ............ ........... 282.3 Demolition prices 1999 - 2009 ................. ........... ........... .......... ........... ........... .......... 28

(3) BULK MARKET -COMMODITIES , S EABORNE TRADE , PORTS

COMMODITIES3.1 Coal Production and Consumption ......................................................................... 293.1.1 World Coal Production by Country 1998 - 2007 ........... ........... ............ ........... ........... .. 293.1.2 World Coal Consumption by Country 1998- 2007 ........... .......... ........... ........... ........... .. 303.2 World Iron and Steel Production .................................................... ....................... 313.2.1 World Pig Iron Production by Selected Countries 1990, 2002 - 2007 ........... ........... ........ 313.2.2 World Crude Steel Production by Country 1998 - 2007 ............ ........... ............ ........... .. 323.3 World Total Grain Production and Trade ................................................. .............. 333.3.1 Production of Grain by Region and Selected Countries 2002 - 2009 ............ ........... ........ 343.3.2 Import of Grain by Region and Selected Countries 2002/2004-2006/2009 and

Forecast for 2009/2010 .............. .......... ........... ........... ............ ........... ........... .......... 343.3.3 Export of Grain by Region and Selected Countries 2002/2004-2006/2009 and

Forecast for 2009/2010 ............... ........... ........... ........... ........... ............ ........... ........ 34S EABORNE TRADE

3.4 Seaborne Coal Trade .............................................................. ............................... 353.5 Seaborne Iron Ore Trade .................................................................. ..................... 353.6 Seaborne Grain Trade ....................................................................... ..................... 35

P ORTS3.7 World Dry Bulk Ports ............................................................................................. 363.7.1 Selected Major World Coal Ports - Traffic 2004 - 2009 ............. ........... ............ ........... .. 363.7.2 Selected Major World Iron Ore Ports - Traffic 2004 - 2009 .............. ............ ........... ...... 37

(4) FUTUREBULK CARRIER TONNAGE S UPPLY- WORLD BULK CARRIER ORDER BOOK

4.1 Existing World Bulk Carrier Fleet by Type and Major Areas of Build 2010 .......... ........... ... 384.2 Bulk Carrier Order Book and New Orders by Type 2010 2010 ............. ........... ............ 394.3 Order Book by Major Countries of Build and Type 2010 ............. ........... ........... ............ 394.4 Bulk Carriers on Order by Type and Delivery Schedule 2010 ............ ............ ........... .... 40

4.5 Bulk Carriers on Order by Countries of Build and Delivery Schedule 2010 ........... .......... .. 404.6 Bulk Carriers on Order by Ship Yard and Delivery Schedule 2010 ............. ........... .......... 404.7 Additions to the Bulk Carrier Order Book by Type and

Major Countries of Build 2002 - 2009 ........... ............ ........... ........... ........... ........... .... 414.8 Additions to the Bulk Carrier Order Book by Type and

Major Countries of Domicile 2002 - 2009 ........... .......... ........... ........... ........... .......... ... 42

19-42


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1

1 W ORLD BULK CARRIER FLEET 2009/2010 The year 2009 undoubtedly was a difficult year for thebulk industry, but it was not as bad as one would haveexpected at the turn of the year. While marketsplummeted in early 2009, there soon were signs of relief

as Chinas demand for ore and coal reached recordamounts. Though charter rates recovered slightly, there is still aconsiderable overcapacity in the market. Despitecancellations of bulk carrier orders and postponements of delivery dates, a total of 568 vessels with 43 mill dwtentered the fleet, about 38 % less than anticipated, but stillby far the highest addition to the fleet during one year andtwice as much as in the preceding years. Thanks to theincrease in demand from China and increased scrapping,much of the capacity could be absorbed, and shipyardseven recorded an increasing number of new orders during the second half of 2009 after two quarters with very little

ordering activity.It is worth mentioning that at the beginning of 2010 3,088bulks with 273 mill dwt were still on order, corresponding to 60.4 per cent of the total world bulk carrier fleet.

1.1 Bulk carrier fleet development

As of January 1st, 2010, the total bulk carrier fleet for shipsof 300 gt and over was composed of 7,772 bulk carriersincluding 78 Ore/Bulk/Oil carriers (OBOs). The totalbulk carrier fleet increased by 8.9 per cent in 2009.

At the beginning of 2010, the following Special types,can be distinguished:

Compared with results at the beginning of 2009, the total world bulk fleet increased by about 36.8 mill dwt to 451mill dwt. In addition, around 6 mill dwt of convertedtankers entered the bulk carrier fleet. Thus, the bulk carrier fleet continued its growth path since 2004.Fleet development trends can be summarised as follows:

Deliveries of new bulk tonnage amounted to 43.2mill dwt during 2009 against 22.7 mill dwt a yearbefore. Actual, this increase represented 4.5 per centof all bulk carriers in service and 5.5 per cent of thedeadweight tonnage of the active bulk fleet.

The average ship size of the new deliveries in 2009 was about 76,500 dwt.

In 2009, around 6 mill dwt of oil tanker tonnage were converted to bulk carriers.

Fig. 1: World bulk carrier fleet annual tonnage changes as ofJanuary 1 st , 1991-2010 (dwt- per cent)

Fig. 2: World bulk carrier fleet tonnage additions and reductions1994-2009 (mill dwt)

Tab. 1: World bulk carrier fleet by type as of January 1 st , 2006 and2010

Tab. 2: World bulk carrier fleet tonnage reductions by type 2005-2009

Sources:If not otherwise mentioned, the source for tables and figures concerning

the world merchant fleet, special ship type features and order bookinformation is ISL based on IHS Fairplay , please quote accordingly. Ingeneral merchant fleet data refer to ships of 300 gt and over.

Explanatory notes:The total bulk carrier fleet includes Bulk carriers and Ore/Bulk/Oilcarriers (OBOs) . The specification of sub-types is based on theclassification provided by IHS Fairplay. Bulk carriers: include Bulkcarriers, ore carriers and other bulk carriers like: Aggregates carriers,Cement carriers, Wood chip carriers, Urea carriers, Limestone carriersAlumina carriers, Refined sugar carriers, Powder carriers. OBO carriers include Bulk/oil carriers and Ore/oil carriers.

Tonnage additions/reductions:Additions (newbuildings) entering the fleet refer to the fleet data of thefollowing year. Reductions (broken-up) tonnage refer to the fleet data of

the respective year.

Ship Type No%-share

of No 1000 dwt%-share

of dwtav. ship

size (dwt)

Bulk carrierof which Bulk carrier 6465 83.2 405916 90.0 62787

Ore carrier 124 1.6 25755 5.7 207699Wood chips carrier 163 2.1 7802 1.7 47865Self discharging 93 1.2 3644 0.8 39180Cement carrier 407 5.2 2768 0.6 6800Aggregates carrier 373 4.8 491 0.1 1318Others 69 0.9 851 0.2 12335

OBO carrierof which Bulk/Oil carriers 39 0.5 3544 0.8 90872

Ore/Oil carriers 39 0.5 452 0.1 11585Total Bulk andOBO carriers 7772 100.0 451223 100.0 58057

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

3.5

1.7

-1.3

0.4

3.14.7

3.4 3.7

-1.6

0.0

2.4

4.7

2.0 1.6

5.87.1

6.4 6.37.2

8.9

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

m i l l d w t

Addit ions Reduct ions

2006mill mill

Ship type No dwt No dwt No dwt 2006 2010

Bulk carriers 6494 333.6 7694 447.2 4.3 7.6 51.4 58.1OBO carriers 137 8.1 78 4.0 -13.1 -16.2 59.0 51.2Total 6631 341.7 7772 451.2 4.0 7.2 51.5 58.1

2010 Av. growthrate '06-'10

Average size(1000 dwt)

2005 2008 2009 dwt-% averageNo mill No of mill No mill change growth

dwt ships dwt dwt '08/'09 % '05-'09Bulk carriers 49 1.7 76 3.3 282 11.6 246.0 60.7OBO carriers 2 0.3 - - 4 0.2 - -6.9Total 51 2.0 76 3.3 286 11.8 252.7 55.1

Ship type


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286 bulkers with 11.8 mill dwt were sold to breakers,an increase of 253 per cent compared to 2008.

Between 2006 and 2010, the bulk carrier fleetexpanded on average by 7.2 per cent per year interms of deadweight tonnage and the number of carriers by 4.1 per cent.

During the period 2005-2009, 1,844 bulkers with 138mill dwt were added to the trading fleet. In the sameperiod, only 510 bulk carriers with 20.6 mill dwt

were reported to be broken-up, the majority in 2009.

1.2 Age profile of the world bulk carrier fleet

At the beginning of 2010, the average age of all bulk carriers was 15.3 years compared to 15.7 years at thebeginning of 2006.

The age profile of the total bulk carrier fleet by year of build showed the following structure:

1,844 bulk carriers equal to 30.7 per cent of the bulk

tonnage came into service within the last 5 years. 1,886 bulkers equal to 14.0 per cent of the total bulk

fleet capacity were in service for more than 25 years.

1.3 Size dimensions of the world bulk carrier fleet

The average size of bulk carriers increased from 46,500dwt in 1990 to 58,000 dwt at the beginning of 2010.Looking at the new deliveries, there is a trend to largerunits, at least 312 Capesize carriers entering the fleet in thepast five years were attributable to size classes above150,000 dwt. Altogether, the bulk carrier fleet comprised811 of these very large units.

The order book also container the largest bulk carrier everbuilt: an ore carrier with 400,000 dwt and a draught of 23m. It is currently scheduled for delivery in 2012.Key figures on the size structure of the world bulk carrierfleet indicate that at the beginning of 2010:

3,050 bulk carriers with 70.0 mill dwt wereattributable to Handysize carriers up to 40,000 dwt(incl. mini bulkers). The majority of these carriersis trading for more than 20 years.

838 bulk carriers with 37.8 mill dwt (8.4 per cent)belonged to the Handymax class.

851 bulk carriers with 46.1 mill dwt were attributableto the new Supramax size class (50,00059,999dwt). At the beginning of 2010, these newcomershad an average age of only 5.2 years

1,382 bulk carriers were attributable to the Panamaxsize segment. With 99.3 mill dwt they had a share of 22.0 per cent of the total bulk tonnage.

1,188 bulk carriers on order and 1253 trading vesselsbelong to the Capesize segment (>80,000 dwt).

1.4 Ownership patterns of the world bulk carrier fleet

World bulk carrier fleet by flag

Large shares of the bulk carrier fleet are attributable toopen registry flags. As of January 1st, 2010, 277 mill dwt,equal to 61.3 per cent of the total bulk carrier tonnage,

were registered for the top ten open registry flags (Major

Tab. 3: World bulk carrier fleet additions (newbuildings) by type2005-2009

Fig. 3: World bulk carrier fleet size development as of January 1 st ,1990- 2009 (average dwt)

Tab. 4: Largest bulk carriers by type as of January 1 st , 2009

Explanatory note Bulk carrier dwt-size grouping Handysize: 10,000 - 39,999 dwt Handymax: 40,000 - 49,999 dwt Supramax: 50,000 59,999 dwt Panamax: 60,000 - 79,999 dwt Capesize: >= 80,000 dwt

Statistical details World bulk carrier fleet Key figures p. 21/22 Division of age and type p. 27, 28 Size class and type p. 27 Summer draught, length and breadth p. 28

Explanatory noteMajor Open RegistriesCountries permitting the registration of ships owned by non-residents.In general, ISL figures on open registry flags are restricted to the top

ten major flags: Panama, Liberia, Bahamas, Malta, Marshall Islands,Cyprus, St. Vincent, Antigua & Barbuda, Bermuda and CaymanIslands. (01.01.2008).Country of registration and country of domicileCountry of registration indicates the country of the port of registry of acountry (flag). The country of domicile indicates where the controlling interest of the fleet is located in terms of the parent company. Thisinformation is applicable to merchant vessels of 1000 gt and above.As of January 1 st , 2009, the country of domicile information wasattributable to 7,078 bulk carriers with 414 mill dwt, whereas for 448carriers with 20.9 mill dwt this information is unknown.

ISL Market ReviewIncludes also specific up-dates (quarterly) of the merchant fleet withaggregates for all ship types p.51

2005 2008 2009 dwt-% averageNo mill No mill No mill change growth

dwt dwt dwt '08/'09 % '06-'09Bulk carriers 319 24.0 333 22.7 567 42.8 99.3 89.0 15.6OBO carriers - - - - 1 0.3 0.7 - -Total 319 24.0 333 22.7 568 43.2 100.0 90.5 21.7

Ship type wt%-

40000

45000

50000

55000

60000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

a v . d

w t s

i z e

Ship nameShiptype dwt gt draught

Yearof

buildReg.flag

Countryof

domicile

BERGE STAHLOrecarrier 364767 175720 23.0 1986 Norway

China,PR of

A WHALE OBO 318700 161500 22.3 2009 Liberia TaiwanOn order:

RONGSHENGSHIPBUILDING

Orecarrier 400000 199600 23.0 2012 Brazil Brazil


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open registries). Between 2006 and 2010, the yearly average tonnage growth of these flags reached 8.6 per cent(this represents a growth of 78 mill dwt in 5 years).

About 50 per cent of the registered bulk tonnageregistered in Panama belonged to Japanese and 11 percent to Chinese ship owners. Hong Kong, Chinese and

Japanese owners contributed most to the bulk fleetregistered in Hong Kong. The Greek ship owners controllarge bulk tonnage shares of the bulk fleet registered inCyprus, Malta and the Bahamas.

World bulk carrier fleet by country of domicile

At the beginning of 2010, almost three ships out of four were not registered in the country of domicile, but sailing under a foreign flag.Between 2006 and 2010, the bulk carrier tonnageregistered under foreign flags increased yearly on averageby 7.9 per cent, a much higher pace than the total bulk

carrier fleet. Accordingly, the share of flagged-out shipsincreased from 70.9 per cent to 74.0 per cent within fiveyears, though there was a slight decrease compared with2009 when 74.5 per cent of the bulk fleet sailed underforeign flag.

2 FUNDAMENTALS OF THE BULK CARRIER MARKET 2007/2008

2.1 Major dry bulk commodities production,consumption and trade patterns

Factors influencing the dry bulk market are largely relatedto the world steel production, which is one of the majordrivers for the dry bulk market. China is by far the largeststeel producer, the largest iron ore producing country anddue to the increasing imports of iron ore also increasingly dominating the international iron ore trade.Recent figures provided by the International Iron andSteel Institute (IISI) indicate that China had a share of 46.6 per cent in world steel production in 2009. Chinasaverage yearly production growth rate in the period 2000-2009 was 18.1 per cent.Latin America (primarily Brazil) is the worlds leading export region for iron ore, directly followed by Australia.

Their export volumes in 2009 reached 268 mill tonnes and

242 mill tonnes, respectively .

Besides iron ore trade also Chinese coal trading isincreasingly relevant for the world bulk market. Coalproduction and consumption experienced a strong increase. With 42.5 per cent in 2008 China is by far the

worlds largest coal producer. According to the latest World Market and Trade Archives(January 2010) of the US Department of Agriculture, graintrade is forecast to reach 258.7 mill tonnes in 2009/2010(February/March), some 15 mill tonnes less than in theprevious crop year. Nonetheless it is expected that thetotal grain area is unlikely to increase because of strong competition from oilseeds and other crops.

2.2 Trade in major bulk commodities 1996-2009and outlook until 2012

Fig. 4: Bulk carrier fleet tonnage development of major shippingnations (controlled tonnage) as of January 1 st , 2006-2010(dwt yearly average growth rate)

Ships of 1,000 gt and over

Fig. 5: World steel production by area 1997-2009

ISL, based on International Iron and Steel Institute

Fig. 6: Overview on major commodity markets 1996-2009 (Tonne-based Index 1996 = 100)

ISL, based on WTO, World Trade Statistics 2010

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

-7.5 -5.0 -2.5 0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0 12.5 15.0 17.5 20.0

m i l l d w t 2

0 0 9

average annual dwt growth 2006- 2010 in %

Korea, Rep. of

China, PR of

Hong Kong (SAR)

JapanGreece

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

m i l l t o n n e s

Others CIS

North America EU-15

Asia

1.6

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

coal consumption

China

OECD

World

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

iron ore imports

China

OECD

World

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

coal production

China

OECD

World

70

120

170

220

270

320

370

420

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

iron ore production

China

Australia

Brazil

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During the past decade, the development of seabornebulk trade was dominated by Chinas soaring demand forraw materials.

World seaborne iron ore trade doubled between 2001 and2008 from 557 million tonnes in 2001 to 1.1 billion tonnesin 2008. Almost three quarters of this growth (400 milliontonnes) were attributable to Chinese imports. Thoughnearby Australia is the most important exporter for China,South American iron ore was also used to cover demand.

2.3 Dry bulk port traffic regional highlights2008/2009

The development of seaborne trade in major bulk commodities is mirrored in the development of the majorexporting and importing ports development.Between 1998 and 2008, the worlds largest ports dry bulk traffic grew faster than in preceding periods. Due tostrong Chinese demand for iron ore and, more recently,

for coal, Australian and Brazilian ports of loading wereincreasingly busy, causing congestion and long waiting times in the ports. Between 1998 and 2003, dry bulk shipments increased by 4.9 per cent per year on average,accelerating to 5.6 per cent between 2003 and 2008.

Leading exporting bulk ports

The worlds largest dry bulk port, the port of Qinhuangdao, handled 206.3 mill tonnes of coal in 2009,down 5.7 per cent from 2008. While demand has

weakened in most Asian importing countries, Chinas coalconsumption actually increased in 2009. Hence, domesticdemand for coal shipments is likely to have dampened the

impact of decreasing exports. The Australian ports of Newcastle, Hay Point andGladstone together loaded 235 mill tonnes of coal in thefiscal year ending June 2009, approximately the sameamount as in 2007 and 2008. In 2009, the increasing demand from the Chinese economy was strong enough tocompensate the losses in other importing countries.

The Chinese demand for raw materials also helped Australian iron ore ports to sustain and even expand theircargo traffic. In the fiscal year 2008/2009, combined ironore shipments in Port Hedland and Dampier grew by 13.9per cent to 270 mill tonnes. The Brazilian iron oreexports, by contrast, fell sharply. Tubarao and Sepetiba,the most important ports for EU steel producers, faced adecline of 15.0 per cent to 166 mill tonnes.

Traffic rebound 2009/2010

The quarterly development of bulk traffic of majorexporting ports reveals the impact of Chinas increaseddemand in 2009. Iron ore exports of the three major

Australian ports actually increased by 13.9 per cent in thecalendar year 2009. The record volume of 79.9 milliontonnes loaded during the last quarter of 2009 was even 30per cent above the respective volume of 2008; the latterhad already been affected by the crisis. During the firstquarter of 2010, traffic was almost 30 per cent higher thanin 2008, i.e. before the crisis.In Brazilian ports, the slump in Europe, in Japan and inSouth Korea more than offset the increasing demand

Tab. 5: Dry bulk traffic of major ports by exporting andimporting Areas (port regions) 1998-2008 (milltonnes, per cent)

ISL Port Data Base 2010

Tab. 6: Coal and iron ore traffic of major ports by region 2005-

2009 (mill tonnes)

Based on ports listed in table 3.7.1 and 3.7.2 on pages 36/37.ISL Port Data Base 2010

SSMR Guide to relevant market information: Fearnleys Review, Fearnleys Monthly: www.fearnleys.com Platou: Platou Monthly, Platou Report: www.platou.com Barry Rogliano Salles: BRS online market information:

www.brs-paris.com ISL Shipping Statistics Yearbook 2009 Esso Oeldorado: www.esso.ch BP Statistical Review of World Energy http://www.bp.com EIA Energy Information Administration: www.eia.doe.gov International Grains Council: www.igc.org.uk

IHS Global Insight: World Trade ServiceIHS Global Insight's World Trade Service provides clients with the mostcomprehensive view of international trading markets andcommodities. Forecasts are updated on a quarterly schedule and aredelivered electronically via the Internet.

Exports by Country/Region with Trade Partner Regions/Countries Imports by Country/Region from Trade Partner Regions/Countries Real Value of Trade and Nominal Value of Trade History for Total Value Data: since 1980. History for Value by Volume: since 1995.

ISL Port Data BaseThe ISL Port Data Base contains structured, comparable data from1980 onwards for approximately 400 leading world ports. This uniquedata base is made possible by our network of port partners

throughout the world providing the broad information for our annualISL Port Data Base Survey. Since 2005, ports can provide their datavia our online questionnaire. Cargo traffic and commodities (154 items)

Total cargo traffic Loading categories Major bulk commodities Cargo traffic by continents

Container traffic by continent (55 items) TEU (laden/empty) Containerised cargo (tons) Degree of containerisation

Port regions (a) 98-03 03-08 1998 2008Exporting areas 50 4.9 5.6 100.0 100.0

Oceania 18 5.1 5.8 53.0 53.9South America 19 5.7 7.1 29.2 32.5Africa 13 3.1 1.8 17.8 13.6Importing Areas 67 2.5 3.2 100.0 100.0North Range/UK 25 0.6 1.7 32.2 27.2Far East 14 5.3 4.2 43.7 52.2US 14 -2.8 4.6 17.6 14.3South East Asia 14 5.3 -0.2 6.6 6.3

(a) South East Asia: India, Pakistan, Thailand, Singapore,Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines; North Range: 10 major NorthRange ports (Europe)

Noof

Ports

average an.growth in % % share of total

mill t mill t2009 2009/08 av. 09/05 2009 2009/08 av. 09/05

Asia 245 -7.2 6.7 98 -16.5 -3.2Oceania 235 -0.8 3.7 270 13.9 8.9Europe 43 -14.6 -1.6 68 9.6 2.3America 94 -14.6 2.7 264 -10.3 2.8Africa 73 -8.6 -2.4 55 25.1 14.5

CoalGrowth rate

Iron OreGrowth rate


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with the development of the contacting prices for new vessels. Whilst a new Capesize vessel nowadays costsUS$ 55 mill, an equal ship necessitated an investment of US$ 91 mill at the end of 2008, just at the start of theeconomic crisis. Compared with 2008 the price level in2009 decreased by 27.6 per cent.

3 THE SHIPBUILDING MARKET FOR BULK CARRIERS /F UTURE TONNAGE SUPPLY

3.1 New orders and order book development

In 2009, ordering activities for bulk carriers weresignificantly lower than in previous years. In contrast,scrapping for older bulk tonnage increased extraordinarily.

Thus, in contrast to recent years, there was a balancebetween new orders and deliveries of bulk carriers.

The number of new contracts for bulk carriers decreasedsharply. During 2009, 573 bulk carriers with 27 mill dwt

were added to the order book . Chinese shipbuildersbenefited from Chinese growth and have strengthenedtheir leading position. In 2009, Chinese shipbuilders wereby far the most active in contracting new bulk carriers. Atthe same time, Chinese owners were most active inordering new bulk carriers.

As of January 1st, 2010, the stock of ships on ordercomprised 3,088 vessels with 61.1 mill cgt (273 mill dwt),9.4 per cent less than one year before.

The order book for bulk carriers due for delivery in 2010stood at 29.9 mill cgt, which represents half of the orderedtonnage. If all these ships were delivered as scheduled, this

would lead to large overcapacity in the bulk carrier market.

However, it is expected that some of the orders will bestretched, and there may still be further cancellations.Latest figures New orders and order book development during 1 st quarter, 2010

According to IHS Fairplay, shipbuilders reported astaggering 108 new contracts for bulk carriers with atotal of 2 mill cgt during the first quarter of 2010.

As of April 1st, 2010 the total order book for bulk carriers comprised 2,970 carriers with 58.2 mill cgt (256mill dwt), a decrease of nearly 5 per cent compared to

January figures. There is still a noticeable increase in ship-breaking activity: during the first quarter 2010, 42 bulk carriers

with 1.6mill dwt were sold to breakers.

3.2 Leading shipbuilding countries

At the beginning of 2010, 98.6 per cent of the total bulk carrier tonnage on order was attributable to yards in Asia(Japan, China, Philippines, Korea and Viet Nam). Table 15 shows the massive predominance of the major Asianshipbuilding countries, which is not only reflected in theorder book at the beginning of 2010, but also in theexisting world bulk carrier fleet. Only 7.7 per cent of theexisting bulk carrier tonnage was not built on Asian yards.

Fig. 10: World bulk carrier fleet - share of the ordered tonnage(dwt) on the existing fleet as of January 1 st , 2000-2010

Fig. 11: World bulk carrier fleet - new orders and broken-uptonnage, quarterly 2003 2010 (mill dwt)

Fig. 12: World bulk carrier order book, quarterly 2003 2010

Tab. 7: World bulk carrier order book by type as of January1 st , 2006-2010

Note: Ordered tonnage at the beginning of period

Statistical details The world bulk carrier order book Bulk carriers on order by type p. 39 Bulk carriers on order by type and delivery schedule p. 40 New orders by type and major countries of build p. 41 New orders by type and major countries of domicile p. 42

Explanatory noteThe compensated gross tons (cgt) concept was first devised byshipbuilder associations, and adopted by the OECD Council Working Party on Shipbuilding (WP6), in the 1970s to provide a more accuratemeasure of shipyard activity than could be achieved by the usual gross

ton (gt) and deadweight ton (dwt) measures. The compensated gross tons (cgt) is calculated by multiplying the tonnage of a ship by a

coefficient, which is determined according to type and size for aparticular ship. Cgt is used as an indicator of the volume of work that isnecessary to build a given ship.The new compensated gross ton system (cgt) coefficient for a 10,000 gtbulk carrier is 7,987 cgt.

0

10

20

3040

50

60

70

80

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

o r d e r

b o o

k d w

t % o

f f l e e t

10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

03/II 03/IV 04/II 04/IV 05/II 05/IV 06/II 06/IV 07/II 07/IV 08/II 08/IV 09/II 09/IV

m i l l d w t

Broken-up

New orders

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

03/I 04/I 05/I 06/I 07/I 08/I 09/I 10/I

m i l l c g t

2006 cgt-%No mill No mill No mill change

cgt cgt cgt '09/'10Bulk carriers 832 15.8 3412 296.0 3076 60.5 -79.6

OBO carriers - -13 4.14 12 0.67

-83.8Total 832 15.8 3425 300.1 3088 61.1 -79.6

Ship type2009 2010


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