Commentary on:

In the Grip of Climate Change – The Circumpolar Dimension

Discussion Paper: Session 1, Rob Huebert

Douglas BancroftDirectorMarine and Ice Services

Conditions in 2007 were close towhat was predicted for 2030

Leah BraithwaiteChief, Strategic PlanningMarine and Ice Services

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Outline

• Brief overview of changing ice conditions

• General comments

• Arctic Scenarios

• Brief overview of the Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment recommendations

• Final words

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Long-term observations indicate that Arctic seaice conditions are changing.

• The Summers of 2007 and 2008 saw the lowest minimum ice extents since 1971 :

4.2 and 4.7 million sq km respectively

• The 30 year “normal”minimum ice extentis 6.7 million sq km

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As of 2008, the NWP southern route had been navigable for a record 3 consecutive years.

• And the northern deep draft channel had been navigable throughout its length for the first 2 years in recorded history

“Normal” ice conditions in Sept. (30 year average)

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As well, Canada lost 3 ice shelves from the northern coast of Ellesmere Island in 2008

The Ward Hunt Ice Shelf fragmented July 22-24 Then the Serson Ice Shelf broke off July 31 - Aug 1

Finally the Markham Ice Shelf disintegrated between Aug 4-12

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From Jan 25/09 RADARSAT-2 image:

– Size ~15 km2 (down from 21 km2)– Estimated Mass 750,000,000 tons

(Assuming a 55m thickness)– Drift speed (Dec-Feb) ~ 9 nm/day

Extreme Ice EventsRADARSAT-2 Data and Products © MacDONALD, DETTWILERAND ASSOCIATES LTD. (2009)

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Overall Comments

• Dr. Huebert’s paper clearly articulates a compelling case:– Climate change is transforming the Arctic. – International perception that reduced sea ice means increasing

Arctic access and opportunities – Arctic States now are faced with an increasing number of

players

• There are also other key factors such as

technological advancement, resource

development, societal transformation and

new and emerging geopolitical realities

• Canada now finds itself at the centre

of these forces.

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What, so what, now what?

• What should Canada do?

• What should be the focus of

Canadian policy-makers when

looking to the north?

• How can we best meet

Canadian interests and values?

• A partial answer to that general

question from my own focus on northern shipping.

• Why? When it comes to economic drivers, marine shipping and

related transportation infrastructure will be essential to sustained northern development, for Canada and internationally.

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Arctic Marine Navigation Scenarios – Mid-Century• Two workshops were

held in 2007 to create and analyse possible scenarios surrounding the futureof Arctic marine navigation in the mid-century

• Workshop participants

identified “Governance” and “Resources & Trade” as the most important and uncertain issues shaping future Arctic marine navigation.

• They speculated that depending on the response to the primary drivers including Climate Change – there could be 4 possible “worlds”

High demand

Unstable

Low demand

Unstable

Low demand

Stable

High demand

Stable

Many internat’l players & competition for Arctic resources

Political tensions

Climate warming faster than expected

Global economic downturn persists

Increased domestic challenges

Reduction in sea slower than predicted

Arctic oil and gas reserves disappointing

Alternative energy emerges as a viable alternative

Public concern about climate change influences

Economic rebound

Systematic development of Arctic resources

Cooperative economic and political efforts by Arctic States

Climate warms as expected

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From the “Scenario Narratives Report: Future of Arctic Marine Navigation in Mid-Century”, Arctic Council’s PAME Working Group, March 2008

Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment• Produced in response to Key Finding # 6 of the Arctic Climate

Impact Assessment (ACIA) Report released in November 2004, namely:

“Reduced sea ice is very likely to increase marine transport and access to resources”

• The AMSA was approved at the Sixth Ministerial Meeting of The Arctic Council, 29th of April, 2009, in Tromsø, including its recommendations

– on enhancing Arctic marine safety, – protecting Arctic people and

environment, – building Arctic marine infrastructure,– the request that Senior Arctic

Officials (SAOs) to develop appropriate follow up actions.

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Enhancing Arctic Marine Safety• Linking with International Organizations: develop unified positions … to

advance the safety of Arctic marine shipping; and … coordinate, harmonize and enhance the implementation of the Arctic maritime regulatory framework.

• IMO Measures for Arctic Shipping: strengthen, harmonize and regularly update international standards for vessels operating in the Arctic.

• Uniformity of Arctic Shipping Governance:

harmonization of Arctic marine shipping

regulatory regimes

• Strengthening Passenger Ship Safety in Arctic Waters: apply the IMO’s

Enhanced Contingency Planning Guidance for Passenger Ships Operating in Areas Remote from SAR Facilities

• Arctic Search and Rescue (SAR) Instrument: develop and implement a

comprehensive, multi-national Arctic Search and Rescue (SAR) instrument

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Protecting Arctic People & the Environment

• Survey of Arctic Indigenous Marine Use• Engagement with Arctic Communities • Identify areas of heightened ecological

and cultural significance • Specially Designated Arctic Marine Areas • Protection from Invasive Species: • Oil Spill Prevention: That the Arctic states decide to

enhance the mutual cooperation in the field of oil spill prevention

• Addressing Impacts on Marine

Mammals• Reducing Air Emissions

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Building the Arctic Marine Infrastructure• Improvements in Arctic marine infrastructure are needed to

enhance safety and environmental protection in support of sustainable development

• Continue development of a

comprehensive Arctic marine trafficawareness system

• Continue to develop circumpolar

environmental pollution responsecapabilities

• Significantly improve the level and access to Hydrographic,

Meteorological and Oceanographic data and information

Baffinland

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Final Words• In summary, we need to ensure that the future for the Arctic is one

of balance – a successful “Arctic Saga” rather than a politically-charged, wild-west “Arctic Race”

• We need to jointly and co-operatively implement recommendations such as those that have been tabled in documents like the AMSA

• Most importantly, though, we need to invest in people to make all of this happen - providing the interdisciplinary training and expertise for them to be ready for 2030