Comments on Comments on “Climate Change and “Climate Change and India”India”Jessica Seddon WallackJessica Seddon WallackDirector, Centre for Development FinanceDirector, Centre for Development Finance

3 Points3 Points

Uncertain, yes, but science looks Uncertain, yes, but science looks worse than in portrayed in the paper. worse than in portrayed in the paper.

Thinking about “now vs later,” and Thinking about “now vs later,” and “growth vs. emissions limits” in this “growth vs. emissions limits” in this context adds to that case for a context adds to that case for a familiar (economic) reform agenda.familiar (economic) reform agenda.

COCO22 is just half of climate change; is just half of climate change; and options for the other climate and options for the other climate changers look very familiar…changers look very familiar…

The Sky Might Be The Sky Might Be FallingFalling

Committed warming > observed warming.Committed warming > observed warming.

Distribution of climate sensitivity parameter Distribution of climate sensitivity parameter has a fat upper tail. has a fat upper tail.

Changes linked to peak COChanges linked to peak CO22 levels are levels are irreversible. irreversible.

Possible near(ish) “tipping points” that could Possible near(ish) “tipping points” that could accelerate climate change. accelerate climate change.

Generally, scientific evidence seems to be Generally, scientific evidence seems to be looking worse every month. looking worse every month.

Temp increases look more Temp increases look more damaging.damaging.

Source: Smith et al (2009), PNAS

How to Assess Action/Inaction in How to Assess Action/Inaction in Light of (Dismal) Science?Light of (Dismal) Science?

Potential for disaster means rational to do Potential for disaster means rational to do something about truncating the “fat tail” of something about truncating the “fat tail” of disastrous outcomes. [Weitzman (2008)]disastrous outcomes. [Weitzman (2008)]

Decision theory approach: Now vs later Decision theory approach: Now vs later depends on how much we can learn while depends on how much we can learn while waiting vs the potential of increasing costs. waiting vs the potential of increasing costs. Act now if potential for hazards to increase Act now if potential for hazards to increase too much. [Summers and Zeckhauser (2009)]too much. [Summers and Zeckhauser (2009)]

ImplicationsImplications

Invest in reducing the “fat tail”Invest in reducing the “fat tail” Probably need more than growth for adaptability.Probably need more than growth for adaptability. Another argument for getting infrastructure, public Another argument for getting infrastructure, public

delivery, etc. right. delivery, etc. right.

Do focus on mitigationDo focus on mitigation Look at domestic actions with co-benefits: reform Look at domestic actions with co-benefits: reform

fuel subsidies, IP rights and technology diffusion, fuel subsidies, IP rights and technology diffusion, energy efficiency, etc.energy efficiency, etc.

Unilateral COUnilateral CO22 commitments? Maybe some commitments? Maybe some variant….variant….

Consider possibility of demonstration effect in Consider possibility of demonstration effect in international arena. international arena.

Offer Energy Efficiency Offer Energy Efficiency Commitments?Commitments?

Source: World Development Indicators

Address The Other Address The Other Climate ChangersClimate Changers

The other half of global warming: methane, The other half of global warming: methane, halocarbons, tropospheric ozone, black/brown carbon. halocarbons, tropospheric ozone, black/brown carbon. BC: 20-50% of effect of COBC: 20-50% of effect of CO22 + accelerated glacial + accelerated glacial

melting.melting. Ozone: 20% of effect of COOzone: 20% of effect of CO22

Comparison depends on the time-frame: in the medium Comparison depends on the time-frame: in the medium run, these have 100s to 1000s x the warming potential run, these have 100s to 1000s x the warming potential of COof CO22

What’s different about theseWhat’s different about these Shorter lifetime in the atmosphere (days to decades)Shorter lifetime in the atmosphere (days to decades) More local (BC and ozone)More local (BC and ozone) Tangible economic and development co-benefits from Tangible economic and development co-benefits from

emissions reduction (health, agricultural productivity, emissions reduction (health, agricultural productivity, quality of life)quality of life)

Reducing BC and OzoneReducing BC and Ozone

Help households move past traditional biomass Help households move past traditional biomass based cooking, heating technologies => reduce based cooking, heating technologies => reduce BC, CO, methane. BC, CO, methane. OK: LPG?OK: LPG? Better: Improved biomass stoves, espw/ processed Better: Improved biomass stoves, espw/ processed

fuel.fuel.

Reduce vehicular emissions => less NOxReduce vehicular emissions => less NOx Target new fleets, encourage fleet turnoverTarget new fleets, encourage fleet turnover Crack down on adulterationCrack down on adulteration Revisit diesel subsidies (or require filters)Revisit diesel subsidies (or require filters) Public transport > private transportPublic transport > private transport Finally get around to addressing shipping and Finally get around to addressing shipping and

multimodal transport issues. multimodal transport issues.

Starts to look like the Starts to look like the same list of economic same list of economic

reform issues….reform issues….