commission européenne 1 -1- european pension reforms international forum on pension reform:...
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Commission européenne--11--
European Pension reforms European Pension reforms
International Forum on Pension Reform: Exploring the Link to Labour and Financial Market Reforms
Bled - Slovenija7-9 May 2007
O. Bontout, G. Fischer
European CommissionEmployment, Social Affairs & Equal Opportunities DG
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Commission européenne--22--
Pension reformsPension reforms
➢A common challenge and approach in EU
➢Main developments in current reforms
➢Recent developments : labour market and pension prospects
➢Some outstanding issues
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Commission européenne--33--
I - A common pension challenge:I - A common pension challenge:
adjustments needed adjustments needed
• Increase in life expectancy and dependency ratios
• Decline in effective retirement ages … reversal in recent years
• Contribution rates – further increases ?
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Commission européenne--44--
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Commission européenne--55--
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Commission européenne--66--
Life expectancy at 60 and activity rates 55-64Life expectancy at 60 and activity rates 55-64
Source Eurostat for Life expectancy and ILO (ES and SE 1970-2000, FR 1968-2000 , IT 1971-2000, UK 1971-1991)Source Eurostat for Life expectancy and ILO (ES and SE 1970-2000, FR 1968-2000 , IT 1971-2000, UK 1971-1991)
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Commission européenne--77--
40%25%18%Ratio 70+ /20-69
58%39%27%Ratio 65+ /20-64
80%58%39%Ratio 60+ /20-59
205020252004
Note : EU25. Source : Eurostat 2005 demographic projections.
7
Projected evolution of dependency ratios
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Commission européenne--88--
A common challengeA common challenge
• All systems are concerned: DB, DC, NDC, PAYG, funded,
• Member States are not interdependent:
– public finance,
– mobility,
– common social rights and objectives,
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Commission européenne--99--
Common European ApproachCommon European Approach
Pension systems to be reformed to ensure:• Adequate benefits: poverty and income
replacement• Financial sustainability• Adaptation to societal/ labour market change
Adequacy and Sustainability are mutually reinforcing : virtuous or vicious circle
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Commission européenne--1010--
European Action: the OMCEuropean Action: the OMC
Open Method of Coordination:
• National Strategy Reports 2005,
• Social Protection Committee to review progress und prepare for Council,
• Recently issued synthesis report (2006)
• New objectives adopted in Spring 2006
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Commission européenne--1111--
II - Key elements arising from II - Key elements arising from current pension reformscurrent pension reforms
• Strengthening incentives for working longer
• Developing a life-cycle approach and strengthening the link between contributions and benefits while reducing access to early paths out of employment
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Commission européenne--1212--
Key elements arising from Key elements arising from current pension reformscurrent pension reforms
• Making pension systems more adaptable to structural changes in society
• Develop secure private pensions
complementing and partially replacing public pension provision
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Commission européenne--1313--
Commission européenne--1313--
III - Recent developmentsIII - Recent developments
• Labour market - a recent reversal
• Benefits - the key channel of working longer
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Commission européenne--1414--
Recent increase in employment of Recent increase in employment of older workers, but huge potentialolder workers, but huge potential
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
BE
CZ
DK
DE
EE
EL
ES
FR IE IT
CY
LV LT LU HU
MT
NL
AT PL
PT SI
SK FI
SE
UK
eu25
2001-2004
1995-2001
1995
Source : LFS
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Commission européenne--1515--
Older workers employment (55-64)Trends in employment rates for older people (aged 55-64) in selected
EU Member States, 1992-2004
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Source: Eurostat, structural indicators
% o
f p
op
ula
tion
ag
ed
55
-64
DE ES FR IT UK FI
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Commission européenne--1616--
Older workers employment (55-59)
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Commission européenne--1717--
Older workers employment (60-64)
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Commission européenne--1818--
Part time employment (55-64)
15%
20%
25%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
eu15
eu25
eu27
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Commission européenne--1919--
Part time employment (55-64)
5%
10%
15%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
35%
40%
45%eu25 (men)eu15 (men)eu25 (women)eu15 (women)
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Commission européenne--2020--
Commission européenne--2020--
• Between MSs ?
• Men / Women ?
• Less / medium and high skilled ?
Some risks of divergence ?
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Commission européenne--2121--
Average standard deviation of employment rates 55-64 and 25-54Average standard deviation of employment rates 55-64 and 25-54
Commission européenne--2121--
Non convergence between MSs?
Source : LFS – Note : Total for all Member States available , EU* for a group of Member States where are available all the period long (BE, DK, DE, IE, EL, FR, IT, LU, NL, UK)
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
Total 25-54
EU* 25-54
Total 55-64
EU* 55-64
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Commission européenne--2222--
Average standard deviation of employment rates 55-59 and 60-64Average standard deviation of employment rates 55-59 and 60-64
Commission européenne--2222--
Non convergence between MSs?
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2004
2006
Total 55-59 Total 60-64 EU* 55-59 EU* 60-64
Source : LFS – Note : Total for all Member States available , EU* for a group of Member States where are available all the period long (BE, DK, DE, IE, EL, FR, IT, LU, NL, UK)
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Commission européenne--2323--
Commission européenne--2323--
Slow convergence between Genders ?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
eu27 - men eu15 - meneu27 - women eu15- women
Employment rates by gender for 55-64 in EU
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Commission européenne--2424--
Commission européenne--2424--
Divergence between skill levels?
30
40
50
60
70
2000 2006
Low MediumHigh
Employment rate of men 55-64 in EU25
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Commission européenne--2525--
Commission européenne--2525--
Projected long term trendsProjected long term trends
• Adequacy : theoretical replacement rates
• Sustainability : expenditures projections
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Commission européenne--2626--
Trend of replacement rates : effect of enacted Trend of replacement rates : effect of enacted reforms at a given retirement age 2005-2050reforms at a given retirement age 2005-2050
A trend toward a decline in most statutory schemes
Source : Stylised illustration from ISG results on gross replacement rates
2005 2050
Statutory pensions
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Commission européenne--2727--
How to compensate for this decline ? How to compensate for this decline ? Working longer and private pensionsWorking longer and private pensions
Source : Stylised illustration from ISG results on gross replacement rates
2005 2050
Additional fundedcontributions (about 5 percentagepoints more)
Occupational orvoluntary pensions
Working longerstatutory pensions (about 2 more years)
Statutory pensions
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Commission européenne--2828--
Trends of future pension expendituresTrends of future pension expenditures
Source : AWG projections
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Commission européenne--2929--
Commission européenne--2929--
IV - Some key issuesIV - Some key issues
Concerns about equity and poverty
Compulsion vs. incentives : private pensions and working longer
How to fully restore social and financial sustainability ?
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Commission européenne--3030--
Commission européenne--3030--
Key issues (1)Key issues (1)
Concerns about equity and poverty
• Risks related to inadequate pension provision
• A revival of minimum income provision
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Commission européenne--3131--
Commission européenne--3131--
How to strengthen the role of minimum pensions and solidarity in pension systems ?
– Poverty risk among elderly remains generally higher than overall population
– Links between level of benefits, degree of means-test, incentives and indexation rules
– A need for appropriate monitoring tools
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Commission européenne--3232--
Commission européenne--3232--
Poverty risk among elderlyPoverty risk among elderly
Source Eurostat, income dataSource Eurostat, income data
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Commission européenne--3333--
Theoretical replacement rates : Theoretical replacement rates : effect of indexation 10 years after retirement effect of indexation 10 years after retirement
(2005-2015)(2005-2015)
Source : ISG results on gross replacement rates
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Commission européenne--3434--
Commission européenne--3434--
Key issues (2)Key issues (2)
Compulsion vs. incentives : private pensions and working longer
– Choice, incentives for earlier / deferred retirement, partial retirement
– Importance to review incentives structures: are incentives strong enough?
– But pension reform can not do everything
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Commission européenne--3535--
Retirement: incentives and behaviour
Source : Illustration from SPC report on flexible age of retirement (forthcoming), Replacement calculations from EU Commission-OECD project ‘’Modelling pension entitlements'
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Commission européenne--3636--
Commission européenne--3636--
Key issues (3)Key issues (3) How to fully restore social and financial
sustainability ?
– Importance of an integrated approach– Development of automatic and semi –
automatic adjustment mechanisms: automatic mechanisms vs. regular reviews
– Importance of transparency
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Commission européenne--3737--
ConclusionConclusion
• Pension reform in progress
• Working longer: breakthrough needed
• Promoting longer working lives involves not only pension reform
• Improve transparency and governanceto allow policy decisions on priorities