commission on sustainable development in the south east keeping the south east moving; the...

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Commission on Sustainable Development in the South East

Keeping the South East moving; the prospects for transport

Nathan Sansom

Institute of Materials, 22 October

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Scope of the research

• Mobility trends

• Policy implications

• Solutions

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Cost of transport in Britain

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

Ind

ex

, 19

74

= 1

00

Rail

Bus

Motoring

Earnings

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Increasing car ownership

Proportion of households (UK)

0%20%40%60%80%

100%

1985

/198

6

1989

/199

1

1992

/199

4

1995

/199

7

1998

/200

020

0220

03

Two or more cars

One car

No car

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Increased proportion of car travel

Passenger travel by mode as a percentage

0

20

40

60

80

100

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

Per

cen

tag

e o

f m

iles

tr

avel

led buses

Cars

Rail

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Increased total travel

Average trips and distance travelled (all modes) GB average 1985-86 to 2003

0100020003000400050006000700080009000

1985

-86

1989

-91

1992

-94

1995

-97

1998

-00

2002

2003

Years

Tri

ps

(n

um

be

r) D

ista

nc

e

(mil

es

) Total distancetravelled per year

Total number oftrips per year

Increasing journey distances

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The South East region

• Affluent; high levels of car ownership

• Relatively densely populated

• Rapidly growing population

• Personal travel patterns broadly comparable with the other regions

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Regional picture

Number of miles travelled by mode by region of residence

02000400060008000

Region

Dis

tan

ce (

mile

s)

Local bus

Surface rail

Car passenger

Car driver

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Commuting times by region

Average time spent comuting by car and rail

-20406080

100120

Tim

e, m

inut

es

Car driver

Rail passenger

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European commuting times

00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9

1

Germ

any

Nethe

rland

s UK

EU 15

Avera

ge

Franc

e

Sweden Ita

ly

Pro

po

rtio

n o

f tr

ips 120 + minutes

60-119 minutes

40-59 minutes

20-39 minutes

10-19 minutes

0-9 minutes

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Commuting times & distances in Britain

0

5

10

15

20

25

Years

min

ute

s/m

iles

Average time percommuting trip

Average distance percommuting trip

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Commuting times and distances by age in the South East

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Age band

mile

s/m

inu

tes Average trip

time

Average tripdistance

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Levels of car-sharing

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5

0.55

0.6

0.65

0.7

1985

-86

1989

-91

1992

-94

1995

-97

1998

-00

2002

2003

Years

Pas

sen

ger

s p

er c

ar m

ile

UK average

South East average

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Conclusions

• South East residents travel comparable distances and times to work as GB average

• Higher car ownership correlates with less car-sharing

• UK commuting times similar to those on continent

• Distances travelled to work peak at age 30-40 years

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The implications for policy makers

• Traffic in England as a whole projected to increase by 20-30 per cent from 2000 to 2010 and in the South East also by about 25 per cent

• This will result in more congestion, more unreliable journey times and even more inefficient transport system

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The implications of doing nothing

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Environmental consequences

• Transport emissions make significant contribution to climate change

• Average South East household produces 5 tonnes of CO2 compared to 4.3 UK average, largely transport.

• UK government target to reduce emissions by 20 per cent from 1990 level by 2010

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Solutions

• Demand management

• Improved provision

• Effective governance

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Congestion charging in the South East

• Limited options for local schemes

• Some scope for motorway tolling

• South East would benefit from national scheme

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Forecast effect of national charging on traffic in the South East

Charging scheme Traffic change 2000-2010

None +25%

Revenue neutral +34%

Revenue raising +16%

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Benefits of congestion charging

• Economic benefits

• Broadly progressive

• Revenue for transport

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Funding• Even with reduced demand more investment in transport

is required.• UK historically lags behind European comparators in

transport investment

Investment in infrastructure (UK=100)

1985 1995

Germany 160 213

Sweden 187 202

Italy 145 187

France 147 186

Netherlands 100 125

UK 100 100

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Identifying funding sources

• Transport unlikely to receive more from central pot

Government spending by function

0123456789

10

1985

-619

88-8

919

91-2

1994

-95

1997

-98

2000

-01

2003

-04 e

stim

ated

2006

-7 pl

anned

Year

Per

cen

tag

e o

f G

DP

Health

Educationand SkillsTransport

Health

Educationand SkillsTransport

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Regional distribution

• South East receives levels comparable with other regions

UK identifiable expenditure on transport per head, 1998-9 to 2002-3

020406080

100120140160180200

Region

Ind

ex,

UK

avera

ge =

100

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Potential revenue from national congestion charging by region in 2010

0

1

2

3

4

5

Lond

onSou

th E

ast

Wes

t Mid

land

sEas

t Mid

lands

East

South

Wes

tNor

th W

est

Yorks

hire

& H

umbe

rsid

e

North

£b

n p

er

ye

ar

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Land Value tax

• Capturing private benefit of public benefit

• Most LVT represent modifications to the National Non-Domestic Business rate

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LVT Options

• NNDR levy in specific areas

• BIDS; limited potential

• Tax Increment Finance: most promising method

• Transfer of risk to private investor

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Governance arrangements

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Weak integration

• Weak regional bodies

• Poor spatial and policy integration

• Artificial separation of capital and current spending

• Local plans do not cover travel to work areas

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Solution

• Stronger regional transport and planning body with executive powers

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Key policy recommendations

• Interim steps towards national congestion charging, including local area schemes and motorway tolls

• Revenue from national charging ear-marked for transport in the region

• TIF-type land value tax

• Regional planning and transport authority

commission on sustainable development in the south east keeping the south east moving; the...

Documents

south east slide

sustainable development

south east limited options

transport slide

britain slide

regional distribution

car ownership slide

regional picture slide