Nov 05, 2019

CHANA/WHEAT/RICE&PADDY/SOYBEAN

Commodity Market

Monitor

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All India Weather Status

Last week all India Rainfall status: 24th October 2019 to 30th October 2019

Mizoram State received deficit rainfall

Tamil Nadu state received the excess rainfall

Sikkim, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir and Rajasthan state received the large deficit rainfall

Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Tripura, West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar, Odisha, Madhya

Pradesh, Gujarat, Goa, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka and Kerala states received

the large excess rainfall

In Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana and Punjab states no rainfall has observed.

During the week, rainfall was above Long Period Average (LPA) by 200% over the country as a whole.

Seasonal all India Rainfall status: 1st October 2019 to 4th November 2019.

Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Mizoram, Sikkim, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu &

Kashmir states received the deficit rainfall.

Meghalaya, Nagaland, West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh and Kerala states received the excess rainfall

Jharkhand, Rajasthan, Odisha, Gujarat, Goa, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Karnataka states received

the large excess rainfall

Assam, Tripura, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu states received Normal rainfall.

For the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during 1st October 2019 to 4th November 2019 was above LPA by 41% over the

country as a whole.

Weather Forecast:

Above normal precipitation is likely over Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana,

Chandigarh & Delhi and Andaman & Nicobar Islands and normal to below normal over remaining parts of the

country during the week

Minimum temperatures are likely to above normal over most parts of the country outside West & East coasts

and Tamilnadu & Pondicherry, where it is likely to be below normal during the week

All India Reservoir Status: as on 31st October 2019

Central Water Commission is monitoring live storage status of 120

reservoirs of the country on weekly basis and is issuing weekly bulletin

on every Thursday. The total live storage capacity of these 120

reservoirs is 170.328 BCM which is about 66.06% of the live storage

capacity of 257.812 BCM which is estimated to have been created in the

country. As per reservoir storage bulletin dated 31.10.2019, live storage

available in these reservoirs is 153.299 BCM, which is 90% of total live

storage capacity of these reservoirs. However, last year the live storage

available in these reservoirs for the corresponding period was 115.571

BCM and the average of last 10 years live storage was 119.025 BCM.

Thus, the live storage available in 120 reservoirs as per 31.10.2019

Bulletin is 133% of the live storage of corresponding period of last year

and 129% of storage of average of last ten years.

Source: IMD, DAC&FW and CWC

Source: IMD, DAC&FW and CWC

Current Crop Scenario

CORN Crop harvesting is completed in Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, while in remaining state crop harvesting is under progress. Rainfall received during current monsoon season was beneficial for the crop (except Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh). However, heavy rainfall received during month of Sep-19 has damaged majority of the crop in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. Incidence of fall army worm has been reported in the field. Overall rest of areas crop condition is normal and yield is expected to be normal.

Bajra Crop harvesting is almost completed. Good rainfall received during monsoon season in major Bajra crop growing areas was beneficial for the crop. However, heavy rains received during month of Sep-19 has damaged of the crop in Rajasthan state. Incidence of disease and pest has not been observed in the field till date. Overall rest of areas crop condition is normal and yield is expected to be normal.

COTTON Crop is 165 to 180 days old and final picking is under progress, while harvesting is almost

completed in early sown crop in Punjab, Haryana, and Western part of Rajasthan. Apart

from mentioned states areas, crop is 115 to 155 days old and second picking is under

progress. Continuous heavy rainfall during month of Sep’19 has adversely affected the

crop. Further, rains received during second fortnight of Oct’19 have impacted the crop in

Maharashtra, Karnataka and Telangana state. Crop was under moisture stress in Haryana

and West Rajasthan due to deficit rains in monsoon season. Incidence of sucking pest

has been observed and same is under control using pesticides. Overall, in rest of areas,

crop condition is normal and yield is expected to be normal.

PADDY

Crop harvesting is under progress in major growing states, while late transplanted crop is

80 to 100 days old and is in milking to maturity stage. Rainfall received during monsoon

season was beneficial for the crop. However, rainfall during second fortnight of Oct’19

has delayed the harvesting and further damaged the quality of the crop which was

harvested and laid in the field for drying. Incidence of disease and pest has been

observed in the field and same is under control using pesticide spray. Overall rest of

areas crop condition is normal and yield is expected to be normal.

SOYBEAN

Crop harvesting is almost completed. Continuous heavy rainfall received during monsoon season has severely damaged the crop in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. Further, Specifically in Maharashtra, rains received during second fortnight of Oct’19 has delayed the harvesting and damaged the quality of the crop which was harvested and laid in the field for drying. Incidence of sucking pest and yellow mosaic virus has been observed in the field. Overall crop condition is below normal and yield is expected to be below normal.

The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) has approved

Minimum Support price (MSP) of Chana for 2019-20 to Rs 4875 per

quintal. The higher assured returns have increased the probability of

higher Chana acreage at the cost of other crops in the ongoing Rabi

sowing season.

Present Chana sowing acreage is behind normal due to late

harvesting of Kharif crop. Rains in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra

are expected to reduce yield due to late sowing. However, Chana

sowing which is much behind schedule may pick up pace in the

coming days.

According to the first advance estimate released by agriculture

ministry, Chana production target for 2019-20 is reported at 11.60

million MT which is 14.5 per cent higher than the last year production

estimate of 10.13 million MT.

Higher stock of Chana with government agency National Agricultural

Cooperative Marketing Federation (NAFED) is sufficient to carter the

present demand. NAFED decision to sell Chana stock from

November’19 to January’20 may put downward pressure on prices.

NAFED has decided to sell 3.28, 3.27 and 3.28 Lakh MT of Chana in

November, December and January respectively. Total of 9.83 lakh MT

in three months.

According to the AGMARK data, all India Chana arrivals in last week of

October 2019 is 28.85 thousand MT which is around 54.20 per cent

lower than last year arrivals of 63 thousand MT in the same time

period. Lower arrivals are due to lower prevailing market price.

Chickpea area is expected to decline in Canada from 176 to 133

thousand hectares in 2019-20 while production is expected to decline

from 3.11 to 2.30 lakh metric tonnes. Supply is forecast to increase due

to higher carry-in stocks but softened by lower imports and

production.

According to the latest report of ABARES, Australian chickpea

production is forecasted to decrease by 11 per cent in 2019-20 to 1.7

Lakh tonnes due to lower sowing forecast in 2019-20. Chickpea

acreage is estimated to decrease by 15 percent to 1.7 lakh hectares

due to lower import demand from India and lower prices. Chickpea

average yield in 2019-20 is expected to be higher than last year.

Fundamental Analysis- CHANA

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

Location 05-11-2019 29-10-2019 %Change

Delhi 4616.00 4575.00 0.90

Bikaner 4407.00 4397.00 0.23

Akola 4550.00 4475.00 1.68

FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact

Higher MSP Bullish

Higher sowing acreage expectation in the coming Rabi season

Bearish

Late sowing of Chana Bullish

Higher production estimate in 2019-20

Bearish

Selling of Chana stocks from NAFED

Bearish

Lower production estimate of Chana in Australia

Bullish

Based on Primary & Secondary Sources

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

Dec

-17

Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Mar

-18

Ap

r-1

8

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-1

8

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Gram - Rajasthani desi

Fundamental Analysis- WHEAT

The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) has approved

Minimum Support price (MSP) of Wheat for MY 2019-20 to Rs 1925

per quintal. Wheat acreage may increase in the coming Rabi season

due to favourable weather condition, recent rains in major

producing regions and higher MSP.

Sowing of wheat is delayed in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra

due to rains which might affect the yield of the crop. In Rajasthan

wheat sowing has started in some pockets. Overall acreage of

wheat is expected to increase this year.

According to the first advance estimate, released by agriculture

ministry, wheat production target for 2019-20 is 100.50 million

tonnes. In 2018-19 wheat production estimate was 102.19 million

tonnes which was 2.32 higher than 2017-18 estimate of 99.87 million

tonnes.

The current stock of wheat with FCI as on 1st October 2019 is 393.16

Lakh MT which is 10.36 per cent higher than the stock of 356.25

Lakh MT in the same time period last year. Present stock of wheat

with FCI and stockiest is enough to carter present demand of

wheat. However, in the coming months private buyers may have to

depend upon the FCI stock as their stocks are diminishing and

imports are also negligible due to higher import duty.

According to the AGMARK data, all India wheat arrivals the month

of October 2019 is reported at 7.92 lakh MT which is 21.28 per cent

higher than the last year arrivals of 6.53 lakh MT in the same time

period. Wheat arrivals in the domestic Mandis are higher this year

as compare to last year due to higher production estimate.

Moreover, farmers are also selling their crop in the domestic

Mandis as they are getting higher prices than MSP of wheat.

Wheat exports from India are reported at 17.63 thousand tonnes

from April to May 2019. In FY 2018-19 wheat exports is reported at

2.26 lakh MT. Exports are lower due to disparity of prices with

other exporting countries.

In its most recent report released on 24th October 2019, the

International Grains Council (IGC) has forecasted global wheat

production to be 762 million MT for 2019-20 which is 3.95 per cent

higher than 2018-19 global wheat production of 733 million MT.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

Location 05-11-2019 29-10-2019 % Change

Delhi 2240.00 2249.00 -0.40

Indore 2200.00 2200.00 0.00

Kota 2115.00 2120.00 -0.24

FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact

Higher MSP Bullish

Expectation of higher sowing acreage this year

Bearish

Higher production estimate Bearish

Higher stocks with FCI Bearish

Lower export demand Bullish

Based on Primary & Secondary Sources

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200

2300

Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Mar

-18

Ap

r-1

8

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-1

8

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

Wheat: Standard mill quality

Fundamental Analysis-RICE & PADDY

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

LOCATION 04-11-2019 28-10-2019 % Change

Ghazipur (Fine) 3280 3300 -0.61

Nadia (Fine) 3800 3800 0.00

Gulbarga(Fine) 4100 4150 -1.20

All-India progressive procurement of Rice as on 25th October 2019 for

Kharif Marketing Season (KMS) 2019-20 stood at 78.75 lakh tonnes as against the procurement of 71.35 lakh tonnes in the corresponding period of last year.

Higher procurement is done from Punjab at 44.42 lakh tonnes as against 38.37 lakh tonnes, Haryana 33.71 lakh tonnes as against 31.84 lakh tonnes, Uttar Pradesh 0.31 lakh tonnes as against 0.02 lakh tonnes and Tamil Nadu 0.20 lakh tonnes as against 0.51 lakh tonnes. The 2019-20 (October-September) marketing season procurement targets is 416.00 lakh tonnes.

As per the 01st advance estimates for Kharif crops acreage 2019-20, Rice acreage is estimated lower by 1 per cent at 393.26 lakh hectares as against 396.20 lakh hectares same period last year. The normal seasonal acreage is 396.26 lakh hectares.

As per the 01st Advance Crop Production Estimates 2019-20, Kharif Rice production in 2019-20 estimated at 100.35 million tonnes. This is lower than the last year’s production of 102.13 million tonnes. The 2018-19 Rabi season Rice production was estimated at 14.29 million tonnes as against 15.62 million tonnes previous year. The total domestic Rice production in 2018-19 is estimated at 116.42 million tonnes as against 112.76 million tonnes in 2017-18.

The Government has increased the MSP of Paddy (common grade) at Rs, 1815 per quintal for 2019-20 as against Rs 1750 per quintal in 2018-19. The grade A variety of Paddy increased to Rs 1835 per quintal from Rs 1770 per quintal in 2018-19.

India is the largest exporter of basmati rice and its price is a function of global trade. A decline of 10 per cent in price was recorded in the first five months of the current financial year, as per Agricultural & Processed Foods Export Development Authority (APEDA). During the period, the country exported 1.66 million tonnes of basmati compared with 1.85 million tonnes in the same period last year.

In top exporter India, prices for the 5 per cent broken parboiled variety rose to $368-$372 per tonne from $365-$370 a week ago. According to President of the Rice Exporters Association, demand from African countries is still weak.

In second biggest exporter Thailand, which has also been grappling with slow demand and a strong baht, benchmark 5-percent broken rice prices narrowed to $395-$400 a tonne from $396-$400 last week.

According to the latest report released by International Grains Council (IGC), the production of Rice in the world is estimated higher at 501 million tonnes in 2019-20.

FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact

Higher Rice procurement during Kharif Marketing Season 2019-20

Bullish

Rice acreage estimated lower by 1 per cent at 393.26 lakh hectares

Bullish

Kharif Rice production 2019-20 estimated lower at 100.35 million tonnes as against last year

Bullish

Higher MSP of Paddy at Rs, 1815 against Rs 1750 per quintal in 2018-19

Bullish

Lower basmati rice exports during current financial year

Bearish

Higher Global Rice production estimates by IGC

Bearish

Based on Primary & Secondary Sources

2,500

2,700

2,900

3,100

3,300

3,500

Rice (Fine) : Ghazipur (Rs./Quintal)

Fundamental Analysis- SOYBEAN

FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact

Strong demand from traders and stockists in spot markets

Bullish

NAFED starting procurement of Soybean in most of the states

Bullish

India may harvest 17.7 per cent lower Soybean crop at 89.9 lakh tonnes in 2019

Bullish

Higher Minimum Support Price of Soybean fixed for 2019-20 season

Bullish

Decline in Soya meal exports in 2019 Bearish

Global soybean output may decline by 18 million tonne at 341 million tonnes

Bullish

Based on Primary & Secondary Sources

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

LOCATION 04-11-2019 28-10-2019 %

Change

Indore 4009 3837 4.48

Akola 3963 3700 7.11

Nagpur 3939 3757 4.84

Soybean prices increased in domestic spot markets tracking firm

demand from traders and stockists. Arrivals of new crops are also

higher due to good price hike of soybean this season.

NAFED has started to procure Soybean in Telangana. As on 29th

October 2019, it has procured total 260 metric tonnes from various

trading centres of Telangana farmers. Total 1834.35 metric tonnes

has been procured so far from 1032 farmers. The State government

has requested the Centre to increase the quantity of procurement of

the Soybean crop produced in Telangana than the approved quota

since the market price has been ruling below the minimum support

price of Rs. 3,710 per quintal.

As per recent updates of SOPA, India may harvest 17.7 per cent lower

Soybean crop at 89.9 lakh tonnes in 2019 against 109.3 lakh tonnes in

2018. The major Soybean producing states like Gujarat, Karnataka,

Madhya Pradesh may harvest lower Soya crop by 30 per cent to 0.86

lakh tonnes, 7.1 per cent to 2.69 lakh tonnes,31.1 per cent to 40.10

lakh tonnes respectively against last year record.

As per the First Advance crop estimates 2019-20 of Ministry of

Agriculture, Soybean production is estimated at 135.05 lakh tonnes as

compared to 137.86 lakh tonnes in 2018-19.

The Ministry of Agriculture has fixed higher Minimum Support Price

of Soybean (Yellow) at Rs 3710 per quintal for 2019-20 an increase of

Rs 311 from Rs. 3399 per quintal in 2018-19.

India's overall oil meal exports tumbled to 12.51 lakh tonnes for the

first six month period April-September 2019 as against 14.99 lakh

tonnes reported in the same period last year. As per the data

compiled by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA),

decline is seen in the soybean meal exports at 347,785 tonnes, which

is down from 417,157 tonnes for the period. For September alone,

soybean meal exports tumbled to mere 19,152 tonnes as against

95,450 tonnes in the preceding month.

As per IGC (International Grain Council), Global Soybean output may

decline by 18 million tonne to 341 million tonnes due to slight shortfall

in U.S Soybean output for this season and lower planting area so far

in Brazil.

2,750

2,950

3,150

3,350

3,550

3,750

3,950

4,150

4,350

Soybean Indore (Rs./Quintal)

India’s organic products exports surge by

50 per cent in 2018-19: APEDA

Govt allows export of Bangalore rose

onion until Nov 30

India tells Ghana to put in place clear

export policy on raw cashews

Govt panel reiterates need to review

open-ended grain procurement policy

IMF sees Indian economic growth

rebounding to 7% next fiscal

Potential to boost seed exports from

India: Reports

To purchase the India Commodity Year

Book 2019, contact us at

research@ncml.com

The Week That Was!

MINIMUM SUPPORT PRICE (Rs/Qtl.)

Commodity 2018-19 2019-20

KHARIF **NEW**

Paddy Common 1750 1815

paddy grade A 1770 1835

Jowar Hybrid 2430 2550

Jowar Maldandi 2450 2570

Bajra 1950 2000

Ragi 2897 3150

Maize 1700 1760

Tur/Arhar 5675 5800

Moong 6975 7050

Urad 5600 5700

Groundnut 4890 5090

Sunflower seed 5388 5650

Soybean Yellow 3399 3710

Sesame 6249 6485

Niger seed 5877 5940

Cotton (Medium Staple) 5150 5255

Cotton (Long Staple) 5450 5550

RABI

Commodity 2017-18 2018-19

Wheat 1735 1840

Barley 1410 1440

Gram 4400 4620

Masoor (Lentil) 4250 4475

Rapeseed/Mustard 4000 4200

Safflower 4100 4945

*includes bonus of Rs 200 per quintal

# includes bonus of Rs 100 per quintal

Commodity Latest Fortnight ago

Month ago

Year ago

5-Nov-19 22-Oct-19 8-Oct-19 6-Nov-18

Wheat 2215 2200 2175 2031

Chana 4407 4200 4200 4000

Rice/Paddy 2600 3000 3100 3500

Tur 6150 5650 5650 4200

Maize 2150 2116 2153 1501

Turmeric 6319 6000 6143 7113

Official Production Estimates

First Advance Estimates 2019-20 & previous years’ estimates: Fourth advance estimates 2018-19 Link for commodity-wise and market-

wise prices and arrivals:

http://agmarknet.gov.in/PriceAndArrival

s/CommodityWiseDailyReport2.aspx

PRICE TRACKER

Crop Division Progress of area coverage under Kharif crops as on 27.09.2019

Area : In lakh hectare

S. No

Crop Normal Area

(DES)

Normal of corresponding

week

Area sown Increase (+)/Decrease (-)

over

2019 2018 Normal of

Corresponding week

2018

1 Rice 396.25 380.21 382.34 386.92 2.13 -4.58

2 Pulses 119.89 125.8 134.02 136.4 8.22 -2.38

a Arhar 43 43.71 45.82 45.75 2.11 0.07

b Urdbean 30.77 34.71 38.83 39.56 4.12 -0.73

c Moong bean 27.5 29.61 31.16 34.25 1.55 -3.09

d Kulthi 2.19 0.88 0.78 0.74 -0.1 0.04

e Other pulses 16.44 16.88 17.43 16.11 0.54 1.31

3 Coarse cereals

188.39 181.41 179.92 176.88 -1.49 3.04

a Jowar 21.61 18.81 17.1 17.75 -1.71 -0.65

b Bajra 74.39 68.05 66.05 65.32 -2 0.73

c Ragi 11.53 10.33 9.99 8.69 -0.34 1.3

d Small millets 6.18 5.15 4.87 5.18 -0.29 -0.31

e Maize 74.68 79.07 81.91 79.94 2.84 1.97

4 Oil seed 181.96 181.62 179.48 179.28 -2.14 0.2

a Groundnut 42.44 40.59 39.32 40.2 -1.27 -0.88

b Soybean 111.49 112.42 113.99 113.1 1.57 0.89

c Sunflower 1.84 1.53 1.03 1.12 -0.49 -0.09

d Sesamum 14.13 15.63 13.72 14.19 -1.92 -0.47

e Niger 2.41 2.07 2.05 1.9 -0.03 0.14

f Castor 9.66 9.37 9.38 8.77 0.01 0.62

5 Sugarcane 48.32 50.19 52.45 55.51 2.26 -3.06

6 Jute & Mesta

7.87 7.39 6.84 7.2 -0.55 -0.37

7 Cotton 120.93 117.88 127.67 121.05 9.8 6.62

TOTAL 1063.61 1044.8 1062.72 1063.24 18.24 -0.52

1 As per the US Department of Agriculture, India is estimated to have a record production of ………………. lakh bales of cotton this year.

390

2 As per the AGCON report, Sugar season 2019-20 slated to open with a stock of ………………… lakh tonne for pan India.

141

3 The 2019-20 target production for RMSEED crop is ………………………. lakh tonnes.

82.37

AGCON QUIZ ANSWERS OF THE PREVIOUS WEEK

THESE PEOPLE ANSWERED CORRECTLY !

Sl.no Name Department Location

1 Anilkumar Parvathaneni Risk Gurgaon

2 Kuldip Singh Silo Projects Gurugram

3 Praveen Kumar Mundra S&P Ellenabad

4 VIVEK H U CM DAVANGERE

5 Shanmukha k R CM Davanagere

6 Aaftab Khan CWIG Jaipur

7 SHRIKANT PATIL S&P GULBARGA-P

8 Javeed M S&P Davanagere

9 Huzoor Ali Shaik T&C Hyderabad

10 Chetana Iswalkar CM Mumbai

11 Somarouthu Narendra CWIG Hyderabad

12 K B NAGARAJA S&P DAVANGERE

13 John Babu B CM Bangalore

14 Kalyan Chakravarthy IVG Bangalore

15 S Srinivasu S&P Guntur

16 Vikas Kumar CM Karnal

17 om singh CM Bikaner

18 Mukesh Basetia CM Kota

19 Sai Kumar Palaparti CWIG Hydrabad

20 Rakesh Kumar Kain Nfin Gurugram

21 JITENDRA KUMAR

RAIDAS Others

BILASPUR CHATTISGARH

22 Ajendra SIngh Chauhan Mktyard Gurgaon

23 Nishikanta Pallai S&P Patna

24 Krishna CWIG Hyderabad

25 Ritu Sangawat SCM Gurugram

Advisory Team

Nalin Rawal Head Nalin.r@ncml.com

Sreedhar Nandam Vice President sreedhar.n@ncml.com

S. Anisul Hassan Head - Business Development anisul.h@ncml.com

Research Team

Ankur Gupta Data Scientist ankur.g@ncml.com

Mukesh Upamanyu Agri Analyst mukesh.u@ncml.com

Suresh Solanki Assistant Manager suresh.s@ncml.com

Akash Jaiswal Research Analyst akash.j@ncml.com

Ratanpriya Assistant Manager ratnapriya.a@ncml.com

Bhaskar M Quality Officer Bhaskar.m@ncml.com

Shefali Jain Operation Executive Shefali.j@ncml.com

Surbhi Taneja Operation Executive Surbhi.t@ncml.com

Rajiv Kumar Associate rajiv.ku@ncml.com

John Babu B

CM - Bangalore

CONGRATULATIONS!

Name of the lucky winner

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