Dec 24, 2019

MAIZE/CHANA/SUGAR/PADDY

Commodity Market

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All India Weather Status

Last week all India Rainfall status: 12th December 2019 to 18th December 2019

Arunachal Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh states received the deficit rainfall

Kerala state received the excess rainfall

Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Odisha, Maharashtra and Karnataka state received the large deficit rainfall

Sikkim, Jharkhand, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir,

Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Chhattisgarh states received the large excess rainfall

West Bengal and Tamil Nadu states received the normal rainfall

No rainfall has observed in Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Goa and Telangana states

During the week, rainfall was above Long Period Average (LPA) by 183% over the country as a whole.

Seasonal all India Rainfall status: 1st October 2019 to 18th December 2019.

Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Mizoram, Sikkim and Bihar states received the deficit rainfall

Nagaland, West Bengal, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh, Chandigarh, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh,

Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Kerala states received the excess rainfall.

Uttarakhand, Haryana, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Dadar &

Nagar , Goa, Maharashtra and Karnataka states received the large excess rainfall

Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu states received normal rainfall.

For the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during 1st October 2019 to 18th December 2019 was above Long Period Average (LPA) by 35% over the country as a whole.

Weather Forecast:

Cumulatively, above normal precipitation likely over Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh Himachal Pradesh, below normal over Andaman &

Nicobar islands, Tamil Nadu & Kerala and near normal over the rest of India

Major parts of India are likely to experience below normal night minimum temperatures during 20th-26th December, However, isolated

pockets of south interior Karnataka, Madhya Maharashtra and east Uttar Pradesh could remain warmer than normal for a few days

during this period

All India Reservoir Status: as on 19th December 2019

Central Water Commission is monitoring live storage status of 120 reservoirs of the country on weekly basis and is issuing weekly bulletin on every Thursday. The total live storage capacity of these 120 reservoirs is 170.328 BCM which is about 66.06% of the live storage capacity of 257.812 BCM which is estimated to have been created in the country. As per reservoir storage bulletin dated 19.12.2019, live storage available in these reservoirs is 140.08 BCM, which is 82% of total live storage capacity of these reservoirs. However, last year the live storage available in these reservoirs for the corresponding period was 94.59 BCM and the average of last 10 years live storage was 101.74 BCM. Thus, the live storage available in 120 reservoirs as per 19.12.2019 Bulletin is 148% of the live storage of corresponding period of last year and 138% of storage of average of last ten years.

Source: IMD, DAC&FW and CWC

Current Crop Scenario

RABI CORN

Acreage: 11.06 lakh ha area is sown till the current week while the normal for the season is 17.49 lakh ha.

Crop sowing is under progress and is in sowing/ emerging to vegetative growing stage. Rainfall

received during second week of Dec-19 was beneficial for the crop. Acreage of corn in the

current week is almost similar than corresponding week of 2018. Incidence of sucking pest has

been observed in the field same is under controlled using pesticide of spray. Overall standing

crop condition is normal.

Major Growing States is Bihar, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Karnataka.

Gram

Acreage: 89.28 lakh ha area is sown till the current week while the normal for the season is 93.53

lakh ha.

Sowing of the crop is in under progress and crop is in emerging to vegetative growing stage.

Rainfall received during 3rd week of Dec-19 was beneficial for the crop. Acreage of Gram in the

current week is higher than corresponding week of 2018. Higher acreage reported in state of

Rajasthan and Maharashtra. Incidence of sucking pest has been observed in the field and same is

under below economic level. Overall crop condition is normal.

Gram major growing state is Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Rajasthan state.

Lentil Acreage: 14.49 lakh ha area coverage has been reported while the normal for the season is 14.20

lakh ha.

Crop sowing is almost completed, and crop is in vegetative growing stage. Rainfall received during 3rd week of Dec-19 was beneficial for the crop. Crop acreage in the current week is lower than corresponding week of 2018. Incidence of sucking pest and disease has not been observed in field. Overall current crop condition is normal. Major Lentil crop growing state is Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh (Buldelkhand region).

Mustard Acreage: 63.92 lakh ha area coverage has been reported while the normal for the season is 60.48

lakh ha.

Sowing is completed. Crop is 30 to 65 days old and is in vegetative to flowering stage, while, early

sown crop is in pod formation/pod development stage. Rainfall received during 3rd week of Dec-19

was beneficial for the crop. Acreage of Mustard in the current week is lower than corresponding

week of 2018. Incidence of sucking pest has not been reported by the field. Overall crop condition is

normal.

Mustard crop major growing state is Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Utter Pradesh and Haryana state.

Wheat Acreage: 277.91 lakh ha area coverage has been reported while the normal for the season is 305.58

lakh ha.

Sowing is under progress and crop is in emerging to vegetative growing stage. However, early

sown crop is in tillering stage. Rainfall received during 3rd week of Dec-19 was beneficial for the

crop. Acreage of wheat in the current week is higher than corresponding week of 2018 because of

higher market price realization by farmers and assured return compare to other Rabi crops. Higher

acreage reported in state of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Gujarat. Overall crop condition is

normal. Wheat major growing state is Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, Rajasthan, Bihar

and Gujarat state.

As on 20th December 2019, the all India Rabi season Maize acreage has declined to 11.06 lakh hectares as compared to 11.41 lakh hectares last year same period.

In Bihar around 3.53 lakh hectares area was sown, in Tamil Nadu 1.41 lakh hectares, in Gujarat 1.15 lakh hectares, Maharashtra 1.07 lakh hectares, West Bengal 0.82 lakh hectares and Telangana 0.67 lakh hectares area was covered under Maize.

As per the 01st Kharif crop advance estimates of Ministry by Agriculture, the all India Maize 2019-20 productions is estimated at 19.89 million tonnes as against 19.04 million tonnes during 2018-19.

The Government has increased the Minimum Support Price (MSP) of Maize by Rs. 60 at Rs, 1760 per quintal for 2019-20 as against Rs 1700 per quintal in 2018-19.

As per market sources, a consortium of starch manufacturers and poultry feed producers will import around 50,000 tonnes of maize under the advance authorisation scheme licence as imports are still more attractive compared with high spot prices. The consignment of 50,000 tonnes Ukrainian non-genetically modified maize bought at $198 per tonnes, cost and freight. The consignment has been bought duty-free under the advance authorisation scheme that permits duty-free imports, provided the processed product is exported within a stipulated time frame. Import of maize otherwise attracts 60 per cent customs duty.

Maize imports are attractive as spot prices are still higher on year as bulk buyers see the crop to be smaller than what the government has estimated.

As per trade sources, Vessel (INCE FORTUNE) with 53,120.00 tonnes of corn was expected to arrive at Kandla port on 21 December, 2019.

As per trade sources, India imported around 36,982 metric tonnes of maize for the month of October 2019. Out of which, around 27,200 metric tonnes was imported from Ukraine for the Kandla port at an average value of $197.50 per metric tonnes.

Meanwhile, around 9,782 metric tonnes was imported from Myanmar for the Chennai and Tuticorin port at an average value of $263.18 per metric tonnes.

Fundamental Analysis- MAIZE

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

Location 23/12/2019 16/12/2019 %

Change

Nizamabad 2050 2001 2.45

Purnia 2283 2368 -3.59

Delhi 2250 2200 2.27

FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact

Higher supplies of new crop in spot markets

Bearish

Strong demand from traders and stockists

Bullish

Lower acreage under current Rabi season

Bullish

Estimation of lower production by trader and Government

Bullish

Increase in import of Maize Bearish

Higher MSP for 2019-20 season Bullish

Based on Primary & Secondary Sources

1,600.00

1,700.00

1,800.00

1,900.00

2,000.00

2,100.00

2,200.00

2,300.00

2,400.00

2,500.00

Maize _ Gulabbagh

Fundamental Analysis- CHANA

According to the latest Rabi sowing report as on 11th December 2019, all

India chana sowing acreage is recorded at 80.63 lakh hectares which is

around 0.2 per cent higher than last year acreage of 80.50 lakh hectares

in the same time period.

Chana acreage is expected to be lower in Madhya Pradesh as farmers

may switch to wheat due to higher moisture content in the soil. High

moisture is not appropriate for chana crop as it makes it vulnerable to

pest attacks. However, lower chana acreage in Madhya Pradesh is

compensated by higher acreage in other producing states like

Rajasthan and Maharashtra.

In the recent days, chana prices are firming due to delayed crop and

expectation of yield loss due to non-conducive weather. However,

government decision to sell chana from buffer stock and higher

acreage report may limit the uptrend.

The Ministry of Consumer affairs that maintain buffer stock of pulses

under the Price Stabilisation Mechanism has offered to sell about 8.5

lakh tonnes of pulses to state governments at market price to boost

domestic availability. Chana amount offered is 1.2 lakh tonnes.

As on 17th Dec’19, Nafed Chana stock is reported at 16.4 Lakh MT in

which 10 Lakh is reserved for supply to state governments and 6.4 Lakh

for sale through tenders. Chana stock in Andhra Pradesh is 3.10

thousand MT.

As on 19th Dec’19, NAFED has offered 1.26 thousand MT of kabuli chana

in Madhya Pradesh and chana in Haryana.

According to the first advance estimate released by agriculture

ministry, chana production target for 2019-20 is reported at 11.60 million

MT which is 14.5 per cent higher than the last year production estimate

of 10.13 million MT.

According to the latest report of ABARES, Australian chickpea

production is forecasted to increase by 2.48 per cent in 2019-20 to 2.89

Lakh tonnes as compare to 2.82 lakh tonnes in 2018-19. Despite

decrease in acreage in 2019-20 to 2.68 lakh hectares from 3.03 lakh

hectares in 2018-19, production is estimated higher due to favourable

weather condition in major growing region of Queensland. Production

of chickpea is far below than average of 5 years production due to

lower prices and weaker demand from India.

Chickpea acreage is expected to decline in Canada from 176 to 74

thousand hectares in 2019-20 while production is expected to decline

from 3.11 to 1.30 lakh metric tonnes. Supply is forecast to increase due

to higher carry-in stocks but softened by lower imports and production.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

Location 23/12/2019 16/12/2019 %

Change

Vijayawada 4400 4250 3.53

Indore 4350 4350 0

Mumbai 4200 4300 -2.3

FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact

Higher sowing acreage Bearish

Expectation of yield loss due to non-favourable weather condition

Bullish

Selling of chana from buffer stock Bearish

Higher domestic production estimate Bearish

Lower production estimate of Australian chana

Bullish

Based on Primary & Secondary Sources

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

Dec

-17

Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Mar

-18

Ap

r-1

8

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-1

8

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Gram - Rajasthani desi

Fundamental Analysis-SUGAR

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

Location 23-12-2019 16-12-2019 % Change

Delhi 3300 3260 1.23

Muzaffarnagar 3320 3335 -0.45

Kolhapur 3200 3200 0

Contract of about 22 lakh Mt sugar export has been done till 20th Nov out of 60

lakh Mt export target.

Majority of export contracts have been done by Uttar Pradesh where out of 22

lakh mt allocated quantity about 16 lakh mt has been contracted.

Followed by Maharashtra from where contracts for 6 lakh Mt, the export

contracts are low in quantity due to lower sugar production estimate in current

year in Maharashtra and Karnataka.

Iran is still active and buying sugar from India although now it is buying at flat

price vs last week when it was buying at USD 10 premium per mt.

International sugar price have also strengthened by USD 7/Mt (+2%) over last week

and profitable over domestic selling price of sugar.

Indian sugar demand price has also strengthened over last week by USD 8 to USD

10 (USD 330 to USD 332 for icumsa 150 crop 2018/19 And USD 335 to 337 for icumsa

100 crop 2019/20) but export contracts are slow as participation from Maharashtra

and Karnataka is low due to lower sugar production estimate. While Uttar Pradesh

millers have exhausted 70% of their quota.

Domestic sugar prices remained stable, as December sugar release quota is 21.5

lakh Mt at par with monthly consumption.

Domestic sugar prices are trading at Rs 3250 - 3260/Mt for M grade sugar in

Muzaffarnagar (Uttar Pradesh) and at Rs 3100 - 3130/Mt for S grade sugar in

Kolhapur (Maharashtra)

Planting of sugarcane for 2020-21 is underway in Maharashtra and Karnataka

As of 15th December India produced 45.81 lakh mt down 35% from last year

production of 70.54 lakh mt, the production is lagging due to late start and lesser

number of mills operations in Maharashtra.

In Andhra Pradesh and Telangana 14 mills have started and produced 0.30 lakh mt

sugar vs 1.05 lakh mt last year as on 15 Dec from 18 mills working at that time.

India is expected to produce 260 lakh Mt in 2019-20 (as estimated by Indian Sugar

Millers Association) with record opening stock of 146 lakh Mt lead to record total

availability of 406 lakh Mt.

Government of India has given export subsidy of Rs 10.40/kg of sugar for a target

of 60 lakh Mt export.

It is estimated that out of target of 60 lakh Mt, India may export 40 to 45 lakh Mt

due to logistical constraints and reason like some millers may not participate due

to lower production in Maharashtra and Karnataka etc.

Overall India is still expected to close 2019-20 with a big closing stock of 100 lakh

Mt.

Sugar prices are controlled by Central Govt. by fixing MSP (minimum sale price) of

sugar at Rs 3100/Mt, monthly domestic sale quota and export subsidy, so sugar

price should remain range bound i.e. in between Rs 3100 to 3250/Mt and NCML

has Neutral rating for sugar price as price expected to remain range bound.

FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact

Lower sugar production YOY Bullish

Sugar Production at par with Consumption

Neutral

Higher opening stocks Bearish

Higher planting intention for next year

Bearish

Monthly sale quota (December) Neutral

Export driven by subsidy and good demand at current price

Neutral

Minimum Sale Price (Sugar) Neutral

Based on Primary & Secondary Sources

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

Jul-

17

Sep

-17

No

v-1

7

Jan

-18

Mar

-18

May

-18

Jul-

18

Sep

-18

No

v-1

8

Jan

-19

Mar

-19

May

-19

Jul-

19

Sep

-19

No

v-1

9

Sugar _ M Grade

Fundamental Analysis- Rice & Paddy

FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact

Higher Rice acreage under current Rabi season

Bearish

Higher Rice procurement by FCI and its agencies

Bullish

Lower export demand from African countries

Bearish

Kharif Rice 2019-20 estimated lower at 100.35 million tonnes

Bullish

Higher MSP of Paddy at Rs. 1815 against Rs. 1750 per quintal in 2018-19

Bullish

Higher availability in global markets

Bearish

Based on Primary & Secondary Sources

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

Location 23-12-2019 16-12-2019 %

Change

Delhi(PB1121)

2925 2890 1.21

Karnal(PB1121)

3000 2900 3.45

Amritsar(PB1121)

3080 2975 3.53

Paddy acreage as on 20th December, 2019 as per reports received from government, stands at 12.35 lakh hectare as compared to 10.11 lakh hectares last year same period. It is reported that rice has been sown/transplanted in Andhra Pradesh is higher by 75 per cent and reached to 2.18 lakh hectares from last year area of 1.24 lakh hectares. Tamilnadu paddy area in Rabi is also up by 20 per cent from last year and reached to 9.27 lakh hectares.

All-India progressive procurement of Rice as on 13th December 2019 increased at 201.06 lakh tonnes as compared to 190.99 lakh tonnes in the corresponding period last year. The procurement target set for 2019-20 (October-September) is 416.00 lakh tonnes.

Higher Rice procurement is done from Punjab (108.73 lakh tonnes), Haryana (43.02 lakh tonnes), Uttarakhand (6.10 lakh tonnes), Uttar Pradesh (18.23 lakh tonnes), Tamil Nadu (0.30 lakh tonnes) and Kerala (0.98 lakh tonnes).

The Government has fixed the MSP of Paddy (common grade) at Rs, 1815 per quintal for 2019-20 as against Rs 1750 per quintal in 2018-19. The grade A variety of Paddy increased to Rs 1835 per quintal from Rs 1770 per quintal in 2018-19.

India's rice exports in October declined 42 per cent year-on-year to 485,898 tonnes, due to weak demand from African countries for non-basmati rice.

Top exporter India’s 5 per cent broken parboiled variety was quoted around $360-$365 per ton this week, up from last week’s $358-$363/MT. Paddy rice prices have been rising as farmers are demanding the minimum support price.

Thailand’s 5 per cent broken rice was quoted at $395-$420 a tonne, on a free on board basis, compared with $397-$411 last week. Farmers are harvesting new season rice and exporters hope the new supply could help lower prices in the near future.

In Vietnam, rates for 5 per cent broken rice were quoted at $350-$352 a tonne on Thursday, compared with $350 a week earlier. Demand from the Philippines is increasing, but domestic supplies are running low.

US Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its November report had estimated the global availability of rice to be 67.10 million tonnes in the 2019-20 marketing season, which has been increased from 6 lakh tonnes to 67.16 million tonnes in the December report.

2,000.00

2,500.00

3,000.00

3,500.00

4,000.00

4,500.00

Paddy _ Hanumangarh

UP paddy procurement up 40% to

2.75 mn tonnes so far this Kharif

season

Import of edible oil drops 50% in

two months on 5% safeguard duty

Cold weather in North India to

boost rabi crop yields

Centre To Offload 8.47 Lakh Tonne

Pulses From Buffer Stock To Boost

Supply, Control Prices

Centre asks states to lift pulses

from buffer stock to cool rising

prices

Onion shortage: Here's why

farmers gained little from record

price rise

Delay in harvest likely to brew

trouble for coffee crop output

To purchase the India Commodity Year

Book 2019, contact us at

research@ncml.com

The Week That Was!

MINIMUM SUPPORT PRICE (Rs/Qtl.)

Commodity 2018-19 2019-20

KHARIF **NEW**

Paddy Common 1750 1815

paddy grade A 1770 1835

Jowar Hybrid 2430 2550

Jowar Maldandi 2450 2570

Bajra 1950 2000

Ragi 2897 3150

Maize 1700 1760

Tur/Arhar 5675 5800

Moong 6975 7050

Urad 5600 5700

Groundnut 4890 5090

Sunflower seed 5388 5650

Soybean Yellow 3399 3710

Sesame 6249 6485

Niger seed 5877 5940

Cotton (Medium Staple) 5150 5255

Cotton (Long Staple) 5450 5550

RABI**NEW**

Commodity 2018-19 2019-20

Wheat 1840 1925

Barley 1440 1525

Gram 4620 4875

Masoor (Lentil) 4475 4800

Rapeseed/Mustard 4200 4425

Safflower 4945 5215

*includes bonus of Rs 200 per quintal

# includes bonus of Rs 100 per quintal

Commodity Latest Fortnight

ago Month

ago Year ago

23-Dec-19 9-Dec-19 25-Nov-19 24-Dec-18

Wheat 2225 2193 2200 2050

Chana 4460 4276 4376 4331

Rice/Paddy 2850 2800 2700 3400

Tur 5300 5200 5250 3900

Maize 2407 2269 2150 1881

Turmeric 6000 5859 5948 7040

Official Production Estimates

First Advance Estimates 2019-20 & previous years’ estimates: Fourth advance estimates 2018-19 Link for commodity-wise and market-

wise prices and arrivals:

http://agmarknet.gov.in/PriceAndArrival

s/CommodityWiseDailyReport2.aspx

PRICE TRACKER

Progress area coverage under Rabi crops as on 20.12.2019

Area : In lakh hectare

Sl.no Crop Normal Rabi Area (DES)

Area sown Difference of 2019-20 Over

2019-20 2018-19 2018-19

1 Wheat 305.58 277.91 250.02 27.88

2 Rice 42.76 12.35 10.11 2.24

3 Pulses 146 131.46 131.38 0.08

a Gram 93.53 89.28 86.7 2.58

b Lentil 14.19 14.49 15.62 -1.13

c Field pea 9.45 8.73 8.5 0.24

d Kulthi 2.04 4.92 4.97 -0.05

e Urad bean 8.61 5.01 5.24 -0.24

f Moong bean 10.1 1.83 2.59 -0.76

g Lathyrus 4.13 2.66 2.88 -0.23

h Other pulses 3.94 4.55 4.88 -0.33

4 Coarse Cereals 60.78 43.7 40.1 3.6

a Jowar 35.75 25.03 21.57 3.46

b Bajra 0.31 0.18 0.09 0.08

c Ragi 0.46 0.34 0.47 -0.13

d Maize 17.49 11.06 11.41 -0.35

e Barley 6.77 7.1 6.55 0.55

5 Oilseed 78.85 71.79 73.08 -1.28

a Rapeseed & mustard 60.48 63.92 65.32 -1.4

b Groundnuts 7.76 3.35 2.9 0.45

c Safflower 1.41 0.41 0.32 0.09

d Sunflower 2.96 0.77 0.95 -0.18

e Sesamum 3.12 0.35 0.35 0

f Linseed 2.99 2.71 2.99 -0.28

g Other oilseed 0.14 0.27 0.25 0.03

Total crops 633.98 537.21 504.69 32.52

Advisory Team

Nalin Rawal Head Nalin.r@ncml.com

Sreedhar Nandam Vice President sreedhar.n@ncml.com

S. Anisul Hassan Head - Business Development anisul.h@ncml.com

Research Team

Ankur Gupta Data Scientist ankur.g@ncml.com

Mukesh Upamanyu Agri Analyst mukesh.u@ncml.com

Suresh Solanki Assistant Manager suresh.s@ncml.com

Akash Jaiswal Research Analyst akash.j@ncml.com

Ratanpriya Assistant Manager ratnapriya.a@ncml.com

Bhaskar M Quality Officer Bhaskar.m@ncml.com

Shefali Jain Operation Executive Shefali.j@ncml.com

Surbhi Taneja Operation Executive Surbhi.t@ncml.com

Rajiv Kumar Associate rajiv.ku@ncml.com

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addressee. Neither the report nor any part of the report shall be provided to third parties without the written consent of AGCON. Any

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from errors, omissions or misrepresentations made by others. Any recommendations, opinions and findings stated in this report are

based on circumstances and facts as they existed at the time of preparation of this report. Any change in circumstances and facts on

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© NCML AGRI BUSINESS CONSULTANTS PRIVATE LIMITED (AGCON) 2019