commodity market monitor › upload › new › pdf › 8da947e1-d8e4-418d... · 2019-04-18 ·...
TRANSCRIPT
16thApril,2019
Castor | Sugar | RM Seed | Jeera
Click on the link above to participate Participate in our weekly quiz and get a chance to win Amazon gift coupons. Winners will
be announced in next report and rewarded.
Commodity Market
Monitor
Weekly Online Quiz
All India Weather Status
Last week all India Rainfall status: 4th April 2019 to 10th April 2019
• Manipur, Mizoram, Sikkim, Punjab, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana States received
deficit rainfall
• Nagaland and Karnataka states received the excess rainfall
• Arunachal Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Goa, Tamil
Nadu and Kerala states received the large deficit rainfall
• Meghalaya, Tripura, West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar and Uttarakhand state received the large excess
rainfall
• Assam, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Odisha and Chhattisgarh state received the normal rainfall
• No rainfall is observed in Gujarat State
During the week, rainfall was below Long Period Average (LPA) by 22% over thecountry as a whole.
Seasonal all India Rainfall status: 1st March 2019 to 15th April 2019.
• Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana,
Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Madhya Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh states received the
deficit rainfall.
• Tripura state received the excess rainfall
• Punjab, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Goa, Maharashtra, Telangana, Tamil Nadu and Kerala states received large
deficit rainfall.
• West Bengal, Jharkhand and Bihar states received the large excess rainfall
• Meghalaya, Sikkim, Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Karnataka states received the normal rainfall.
For the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during 01st March to 15th April 2019 was below LPA by 38% over the
country as a whole.
Weather Forecast:
• Below normal rainfall likely over west Bengal & Sikkim, Assam, Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Arunachal Pradesh and Jammu
& Kashmir; and near normal over the rest of the country during 18th to 24th April.
• Near Normal of below normal day maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country except Jammu & Kashmir, Odisha,
south Chhattisgarh, north coastal Andhra Pradesh, Tamilnadu and West coast of India.
• Development of heat wave conditions is less likely over any parts of the country during 19th to 25th April.
All India Reservoir Status: as on 11th April 2019
Central Water Commission is monitoring live storage status of 91
reservoirs of the country on weekly basis and is issuing weekly
bulletin on every Thursday. The total live storage capacity of these 91
reservoirs is 161.993 BCM which is about 63% of the live storage
capacity of 257.812 BCM which is estimated to have been created in
the country. As per reservoir storage bulletin dated 11.04.2019, live
storage available in these reservoirs is 46.513 BCM, which is 29% of
total live storage capacity of these reservoirs. However, last year the
live storage available in these reservoirs for the corresponding
periodwas 41.339 BCM and the average of last 10 years live storage
was 45.162 BCM. Thus, the live storage available in 91 reservoirs as
per 11.04.2019 Bulletin is 113% of the live storage of corresponding
period of last year and 103%of storage of average of last ten years.
Source: IMD, DAC&FW and CWC
Current Crop Scenario Current Crop Scenario
Wheat Change in Acreage: 298.47 lakh ha area coverage has been reported compared to normal 306.29 lakh ha. Current Scenario: The crop harvesting is ongoing. Matured crop has been affected due to strong wind and rainfall in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh. Further, crops has suffered damage due to unseasonal rains and moderate to heavy storm in several areas of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Gujarat in third week of April-2019. However, climatic conditions were favorable for wheat crop due to rainfall received in winter season. Overall crop condition is below normal to normal. Production: According to NCML Research, Wheat production for the year 2018-19 is estimated to be 971 lakh MT, whereas 2nd advance estimate of the Govt. of India is 991 lakh MT
Prediction:Yield is expected to be normal.
Mustard Change in Acreage: 69.37 lakh ha area coverage has been reported compared to normal 61.25 lakh ha. Current Scenario: The Mustard crop has been harvested. Rainfall in Jan-19 when crop was in seed development stage was beneficial to crop. Incidence of disease and insect has not been observed in field during crop growing. Overall crop condition was satisfactory. Production: According to NCML Research, Mustard production for the year 2018-19 is
estimated to be 82.5 lakh MT, whereas 2nd advance estimate of the Govt. of India is 84
lakh MT
Gram Change in Acreage: 96.59 lakh ha area coverage has been reported compared to normal 89.45 lakh ha. Current Scenario: The gram crop has been harvested. Incidence of disease and insect has been observed in some regions like Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh & Telangana. Crop in Madhya Pradesh & Rajasthan is affected by frost and drought. Overall crop condition is below-normal to normal. Crop in Madhya Pradesh & Rajasthan is affected by frost and drought. Overall crop condition was below-normal to normal Production: According to NCML Research, Gram production for the year 2018-19 is estimated to be 81 lakh MT, whereas 2nd advance estimate of the Govt. of India is 103 lakh MT
Lentil Change in Acreage: 16.93 lakh ha area coverage has been reported compared to normal 13.94 lakh ha. Current Scenario: The crop has been harvested. Rainfall received in month of Feb-19 was beneficial for crop yield. Incidence of disease and insect was not observed in field. Overall current crop condition was normal. Production: According to NCML Research, Lentil production for the year 2018-19 is estimated to be 14.5 lakh MT, whereas, 2nd advance estimate of the Govt. of India is 15.3 lakh MT
Fundamental Analysis- CASTOR
• Strong buying activities from millers and stockists kept Castor
seed prices firm in spot markets of Gujarat and Rajasthan.
Moreover, firmness in Castor seed futures also kept the
domestics market sentiments positive.
• Trader’s view is that strong demand from processors amid
positive crush margins will support prices in coming days.
Medium to long term outlook is positive on expectation of lower
crop production. However, IMD forecast of near normal monsoon
rainfall is likely to keep a check on any significant upward
movement.
• According to the latest second advance estimates by Ministry of
Agriculture, Castor seed production for 2018-19 is estimated to
decline by 21.37 per cent at 11.77 lakh tonnes as compared to 14.97
lakh tonnes last year. The target set by government for 2018-19
castor seed production is 18.31 lakh tonnes.
• According to the Solvent Extractors' Association of India, Castor
seed production expected to decline to 1.20 to 1.25 million tonnes
in 2018-19 (July-June) against 1.42 million tonnes in the previous
year.
• As per trade sources, the decline in all India castor seed
production is mainly due to lower crop estimates from Gujarat
because of deficient rainfall during monsoon 2018 in major Castor
producing areas of Mehsana, Patan, and Surendranagar districts.
• As per the latest revised second advance estimates for 2018-19
crop by the Department of Agriculture Gujarat, Castor seed
production is estimated to decline by 35.24 per cent at 9.61 lakh
tonnes as against 14.84 lakh tonnes during 2017-18.
• As per the Department of Agriculture Rajasthan, Castor seed
production in 2018-19 is likely to decline at 1.56 lakh tonnes as
compared to 1.66 lakh tonnes during 2017-18.
• Castor seed acreage in Andhra Pradesh & Telangana for the year
2018-19 is 60270 hectares as per the government’s estimates
against last year’s estimate of 57930 hectares, which has
increased by 4 per cent as compared to the previous year. Total
production in the state is estimated to be 0.23 lakh tonnes during
the year 2018-19 compared 0.27 lakh tonnes in 2017-18.
• According to the Solvent Extractors Association of India, export
of castor seed meal during financial year 2018-19 has declined
significantly by 35.83 per cent at 3.67 lakh tonnes as against 5.72
lakh tonnes exported in 2017-18.
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
Location 15-04-2019 08-04-2019
%Change
Deesa 5929 5701 3.99
Kadi 5985 5708 4.85
Rajkot 5815 5390 7.88
FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact
Strong buying activities from millers and stockists in most of the spot markets
Bullish
Profit booking at higher levels Bearish
Castor seed production in 2018-19 estimated to decline by 21.37 per cent at 11.77 lakh tonnes
Bullish
Lower production estimates from Gujarat and Rajasthan
Bullish
Export of castor seed meal in 2018-19 has declined significantly by 35 per cent at 3.67 lakh tonnes
Bearish
Based on Primary & Secondary Sources
3,6003,9004,2004,5004,8005,1005,4005,7006,0006,300
Castor seed: Deesa
Fundamental Analysis- SUGAR
• Domestic sugar prices remained mostly steady with slight
upside at major markets in the country due to limited buying by
bulk buyers.In Mumbai prices were at Rs 3172 to Rs 3232 a
quintal for S-grade and at Rs 3226 to Rs 3330 per quintal for M-
grade Sugar.
• Slight improvement in demand from stockists and bulk
consumers such as soft drink and ice-cream manufacturers was
noted as summer season just started.
• Going ahead such demand will rise and prices are likely to
remain supported until June due to the on-going summer
season but supply glut will also continue to cap the upside.
Lower monthly sale quota for April may also support prices in
the days to come.
• Government has asked mills to export 50 lakh tonnes of sugar
in 2018-19 marketing year (October-September) to liquidate
surplus stock. The government is providing various incentives
to boost sugar exports.
• India's sugar exports rose to 17.44 lakh tonnes so far in the
current marketing year as against about 5 lakh tonnes shipped
in the entire 2017-18. Raw sugar accounted for nearly 8 lakh
tonnes and another 4.3 lakh tonnes are in export pipeline.
Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Somalia and Iran are the major export
destinations.
• Sugar mills can sell 18 lakh tonne of the sweetener in the open
market in April 2019. The central government has allocated
monthly sugar quota for sale to each of the 524 mills in the
country. The Centre has also allowed mills to sell their unsold
sugar stocks of March in the month of April.The government
had fixed monthly sugar sale quota at 24.5lakh tonne for March
2019.
• According to the Second advance estimates for 2018-19 crops,
Sugarcane output is estimated at 380.83 million tonnes from
353.22million tonnes during 2017-18.
• India's sugar production is estimated to decline to around 310
lakh tonnes this marketing year from 325 lakh tonnes in the
previous year. Still, the country has surplus stock as annual
domestic demand is around 260 lakh tonnes and mills are
carrying a huge stock from the previous year.
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
Location 15-04-2019 08-04-2019 %
Change
Kolhapur 3137 3146 -0.28
Kanpur 3235 3238 -0.09
Muzaffar Nagar 3141 3140 0.03
FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact
Limited buying by bulk buyers in most of the markets
Bearish
Expectation of improved demand from soft drink and ice-cream manufacturers
Bullish
Government fixed lower monthly sale quota for April 2019
Bullish
Government asked mills to export 50 lakh tonnes of sugar in 2018-19 marketing year
Bullish
Exports rose to 17.44 lakh tonnes so far in the current marketing year
Bullish
Sugar production estimated to decline to around 310 lakh tonnes from 325 lakh tonnes
Bullish
Based on Primary & Secondary Sources
2,500
2,700
2,900
3,100
3,300
3,500
Sugar: Kolhapur
Fundamental Analysis- RM SEED
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
Location 15-04-2019 08-04-2019 %Change
Jaipur 3868 3873 -0.13
Alwar 3870 3716 4.14
SRI Ganga Nagar
3775 3800 -0.66
• NAFED procurement activities of mustard crop at MSP price of Rs
4200 have started in major producing states giving support to the
domestic price. As on 15th April, NAFED had procured 28.46 thousand
MT in Rajasthan, 1.92 lakh MT from Haryana and 0.47 thousand MT
from Madhya Pradesh. Total procurement reached around 2.22 lakh
MT.
• According to the AGMARK data, all India mustard crop arrivals in the
second week of April is reported at 2.07 Lakh MT which is 40.81
percent higher than the last year arrivals of 1.47 Lakh MT in the same
time periods. Higher arrivals are due to higher production estimate
this year.
• According to the latest report of SEA, all India mustard production for
2018-19 is estimated at 8.5 million MT which is around 18.88 per cent
higher than last year production estimate of 7.15 million MT. Higher
production estimate is due t0 higher sowing acreage and favourable
weather condition in major producing states.
• According to the trade sources, market participants are actively
buying mustard as they are expecting prices to increase in the coming
months due to good demand of mustard meal. The export of mustard
meal is sharply increased due to robust demand from traditional
buyers including South Korea, Vietnam and Thailand.
• India’s mustard meal exports in the month of March 2019 were 50.964
thousand MT (provisional), lower by 36 per cent against 79.643
thousand MT in February 2018. Total exports of rapeseed meal from
April 2018 to March 2019 were 10.51 lakh MT which is 58.28 percent
higher than 2017-18 exports of 6.64 lakh MT in the same time period.
Average FoB price of mustard meal in the month of March is $220 per
tonne which is slightly higher than theFoB price of January of $218 per
tonne.
• All India mustard oil imports from November 2018 to March 2019 is
reported at 0.44 lakh MT which is 66.41 percent lower than the last
year imports of 1.31 lakh MT in the same time period. Lower imports
are due to higher crushing for fulfil mustard meal export demand.
FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact
Starting of procurement activities by the government
Bullish
Higher crop arrivals in the domestic mandis
Bearish
Good demand from the millers Bullish
Higher export meal demand Bullish
Lower imports of mustard oil Bullish
Based on Primary & Secondary Sources
3,500
3,750
4,000
4,250
4,500
4,750
5,000
5,250
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6D
ec-
16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7M
ay-1
7Ju
n-1
7Ju
l-1
7A
ug-
17
Sep
-17
Oct
-17
No
v-1
7D
ec-
17
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Mar
-18
Ap
r-1
8M
ay-1
8Ju
n-1
8Ju
l-1
8Ju
l-1
8A
ug-
18
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-1
8D
ec-
18
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Rapeseed & Mustard-Black - 42% oil content : Jaipur
Fundamental Analysis- Jeera
FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact
Expectation of higher arrivals in the domestic mandis
Bearish
Higher export demand Bullish
Lower production estimate of Turkey and Syria
Bullish
Higher domestic demand Bullish
Higher production estimate Bearish
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
Location 15-04-2019 08-04-2019 %Change
Unjha 16621 16450 1.04
Rajkot 15000 14500 3.45
Jodhpur 16300 16200 0.62
• According to the AGMARK data, all India jeera arrivals in the
second week of April 2019 is reported at 23.96 thousand MT
which is around 198.75 per cent higher than the last year arrivals
of 8.02 thousand MT in the same time period. Arrivals are higher
as farmers are bring their crop due to higher prevailing domestic
prices.
• As per trade sources India is likely to have exported around
120,000 tonnes Jeera in April-December. Exports of the jeera
have risen due to strong demand from China, Europe, United
States, and West Asia.
• As per market sources, Cumin seed production in Syria and
Turkey is estimated to decline. Syria production is estimated
around 25,000 tonnes this year as major part of their crop has
been damaged and discoloured due to heavy rains. Turkey jeera
production is estimated at 8,000 tonnes as rains have damaged
25 per cent of the crop.As a result, India is becoming the key
supplier in the International market.
• Demand from exporters and bulk buyers are activity buying in the
market as they are expecting demand to increase in the coming
months.
• According to the second advance estimates, production of Jeera
in Gujarat in 2018-19 is expected to be lower by about 25 percent
to 2.23 lakh MT compared to last year’s forecast of 2.97 lakh MT
amid lower acreage in the state due to dry conditions during the
sowing season and expected lower yield .However, Federation of
Indian Spice Stakeholders (FISS) has estimated output in Gujarat
may be down by only 3 per cent to 1.67 lakh MT and expect an
increase of 20% in Rajasthan to 2.50 lakh MT.
• As per Federation estimate, all India Jeera output is estimated at
be 4.16 Lakh MT in 2019, up by 9 percent from last year due to
jump in production in Rajasthan.
13,000.00
15,000.00
17,000.00
19,000.00
21,000.00
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6Se
p-1
6O
ct-1
6O
ct-1
6N
ov-
16
De
c-1
6Ja
n-1
7Fe
b-1
7Fe
b-1
7M
ar-1
7A
pr-
17
May
-17
Jun
-17
Jun
-17
Jul-
17
Au
g-1
7Se
p-1
7O
ct-1
7O
ct-1
7N
ov-
17
De
c-1
7Ja
n-1
8Ja
n-1
8Fe
b-1
8M
ar-1
8A
pr-
18
May
-18
May
-18
Jun
-18
Jul-
18
Au
g-1
8Se
p-1
8Se
p-1
8O
ct-1
8N
ov-
18
De
c-1
8D
ec-
18
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-1
9
Cumin Seed (Jeera) - Unjha
• CAI trims cotton crop size to 321 lakh
bales, lowest since 2009-10
• Cottonseed prices gain 25%, making cattle
feed costlier
• NBHC releases Rabi crop estimates for
the year 2018-19
• IMD predicts good spread of rains this
monsoon
• At 1.44 mt, veg oil imports in March
highest this season
• India aims to up mango exports as govt's
promotional events bear fruit
• India shares with China list of 380
products for exports to bridge trade
deficit
• FSSAI relaxes certification norms for
small organic food producers
• Relief for Maharashtra farmers; grape
exports surge 20% this season
• Containers handled at major ports up 8%
at 9.876 million TEUs in FY19
• Rise in yields will push wheat output to
record high: IIWBR
• To purchase the India Commodity Year
Book 2019, contact us at
The Week That Was!
Official Production Estimates Second advance estimates 2018-19& previous years’
estimates: Fourth Advance Estimates 2017-18
Link for commodity-wise and market-
wise prices and arrivals:
http://agmarknet.gov.in/PriceAndArrivals/Co
mmodityWiseDailyReport2.aspx
MINIMUM SUPPORT PRICE (Rs/Qtl.)
Commodity 2017-18 2018-19
KHARIF **NEW**
Paddy Common 1550 1750
paddy grade A 1590 1770
Jowar Hybrid 1700 2430
Jowar Maldandi 1725 2450
Bajra 1425 1950
Ragi 1900 2897
Maize 1425 1700
Tur/Arhar 5450 5675
Moong 5575 6975
Urad 5400 5600
Groundnut 4450 4890
Sunflower seed 4100 5388
Soyabean black 3050 3399
Sesamum 5300 6249
Nigerseed 4050 5877
Cotton (Medium Staple) 4020 5150
Cotton (Long Staple) 4320 5450
RABI
Commodity 2017-18 2018-19
Wheat 1735 1840
Barley 1410 1440
Gram 4400 4620
Masur (Lentil) 4250 4475
Rapeseed/Mustard 4000 4200
Safflower 4100 4945
*includes bonus of Rs 200 per quintal
# includes bonus of Rs 100 per quintal
Commodity Latest Fortnight ago Month ago Year ago
15-Apr-19
1-Apr-19 16-Mar-19 16-Apr-18
Soybean 3879 3840 3737 3832
RM seed 3868 3882 3810 3921
Sugar 3143 3152 3140 2888
Cotton 13043 12654 12401 11529
Jeera 16621 15856 15920 16042
Castor 5935 5220 5178 4000
PRICE TRACKER
1 According to the report, how much is the stock of Rice as on 01st March 2019?
26.40 mil l ion tonnes
2 Which country is the largest importer of oi l meals from India?
South Korea
3 Wheat Stock with FCI in March 2019 isagainst last year stock
Higher
AGCON QUIZ ANSWERS OF THE PREVIOUS WEEK
THESE PEOPLE ANSWERED CORRECTLY!
S.No Name Department Location
1 AnilkumarParvathaneni Risk Gurgaon
2 Kuldip Singh Silo Projects Gurugram
3 Sarita Mittal SCM Officer
4 Praveen Kumar Mundra S&P Ellenabad
5 Nikhil Thakur Risk Delhi
6 Shefali Jain CWIG Gurgaon
7 Vineet Poonia S&P Ellenabad
8 Surender kalwa S&P Ellenabad
9 Satpal S&P Ellenabad
10 Sunny Kumar S&P Ellenabad
11 Yogesh Sanwarmal Sharma IT
Kanjurmarg Mumbai
12 FANEESH TALWAR T&C Gurgaon
13 Ajendra Singh Chauhan Mktyard Gurgaon
AdvisoryTeam
Nalin Rawal Head: CWIG [email protected]
Sreedhar Nandam Vice President: SCM [email protected]
Research Team
Suresh Solanki Assistant Manager: TCIG [email protected]
Mukesh Agri Analyst [email protected]
Rajiv Kumar Associate: TCIG [email protected]
Akash Jaiswal Research Analyst: TCIG [email protected]
Nahalaxmi. J Client Service Executive: TCIG [email protected]
Shefali Jain Operation Executive: TCIG [email protected]
Ratanpriya Assistant Manager: TCIG [email protected]
Ansh Aggarwal Senior Officer: Trade Support [email protected]
Ajendra Singh Chauhan
Mktyard
CONGRATULATIONS !
NAME of the LUCKY WINNER
Disclaimer:
This consultancy report has been prepared by NCML AGRI BUSINESS CONSULTANTS PRIVATE LIMITED for the sole benefit of the
addressee. Neither the report nor any part of the report shall be provided to third parties without the written consent of AGCON. Any
third party in possession of the report may not rely on its conclusions without the written consent of AGCON. AGCON has exercised
reasonable care and skill in preparation of this consultancy report but has not independently verified information provided by others.
No other warranty, express or implied, is made in relation to this report. Therefore, AGCON assumes no liability for any loss resulting
from errors, omissions or misrepresentations made by others. Any recommendations, opinions and findings stated in this report are
based on circumstances and facts as they existed at the time of preparation of this report. Any change in circumstances and facts on
which this report is based may adversely affect any recommendations, opinions or findings contained in this report.
© NCML AGRI BUSINESS CONSULTANTS PRIVATE LIMITED (AGCON) 2019