commodity monthly monitor - wisdomtree europe...in markets for progress to be made as us and china...

Summary

ContentsCommodities market overview 1

Summary tables 4

CFTC net positioning 5

Inventories 9

Moving average and volumes 13

Futures curves 17

Recent publications 21

Commodity Monthly Matrix1 Performance

2- 1 Mth - 6 Mth - 12 Mth

All Commodities 1.6% -2.4% -2.6%

Energy 2.6% -6.8% -13.9%WTI Oil 55 -3.9% -2.5% -14.3% 6% 0.1% 2 0 Industrial Metals 4.3% -1.1% 5.1%Brent Oil 60 -1.8% -6.0% -1.6% 52% 1.6% 2 0 Precious Metals 0.0% 13.5% 23.0%Natural Gas 2.6 21.8% -1.9% 44.6% 32% -1.5% (1) (4) Agriculture -0.3% -4.9% -6.7%Gasoline 1.6 -10.6% -10.0% -2.6% -20% 1.2% 0 (2) MSCI World 3.8% 5.7% 4.0%

Heating Oil 1.9 0.0% -2.2% 8.0% 40% 0.0% 1 0 US Aggregate Bond -0.8% 5.4% 8.6%

Carbon 26.4 -2.6% 6.6% - - 0.0% (2) (2)

Wheat 4.9 2.9% -0.3% -2.7% -80% 0.5% 1 (2)

Corn 3.6 -2.9% -7.5% 5.4% -152% -3.6% (4) (2)

Soybeans 9 1.5% 0.4% -12.0% -57% -1.6% 0 (2)

Sugar 0.1 -7.1% -11.2% - -56% -8.8% (2) (2)

Cotton 0.6 3.9% -11.0% 8.4% 32% -1.0% (1) (4)

Coffee 1.0 3.3% 1.8% - -41% -3.2% (1) (2)

Soybean Oil 0.3 -0.8% 1.6% 4.5% -69% -1.2% (3) 0

Cocoa 2,296 6.6% -1.2% - -405% -1.8% (3) (4) CFTC Net Speculative PositioningAluminium 1,777 1.1% -2.4% -19.2% 3% -0.8% 1 (2) (in '000 contracts)

Copper (COMEX) 2.7 1.9% -2.1% 47.2% 26% -0.7% (1) (4)

Copper (LME) 5,950 2.4% -1.9% 19.3% -17% -0.3% (3) (4)

Zinc 2,384 2.9% -8.4% -14.5% -5% -0.1% (1) (2)

Nickel 17,810 11.9% 37.0% 1.8% 38% 0.0% 1 4

Lead 2,096 1.0% 5.8% 2.0% 0% -0.4% (2) 0

Tin 16,470 -4.0% -15.3% 3.0% 6% -0.1% (2) (2)

Gold 1,493 -0.6% 10.9% - -10% - (2) 4

Silver 17 2.7% 11.8% - 46% - 4 4

Platinum 952 10.8% 13.2% - 68% - 4 4

Palladium 1,601 10.3% 13.8% - 29% - 4 (2)

Live Cattle 1.0 -2.5% -15.9% - -59% -6.0% (4) (1)

Lean Hogs 0.7 -15.9% -6.9% - -27% -3.2% (4) (1)

Feeder Cattle 1.4 6.9% -3.3% - -8% 1.4% 0 (1)Source: WisdomTree, Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Bloomberg

1

Commodity Monthly Monitor

Jitters in the oil market and beyond 16 Aug - 13 Sep 2019

Volatility has hit oil markets. A drone attack on Saudi Aramco facilities caused oil prices to spike by nearly

20% intraday on Monday 16 September. This was the largest spike in a single day in oil markets since the

1980s and was fuelled by concerns about the global oil supply initially losing 5% of its flow without full

recovery until Saudi Arabia restores order. Within hours however, prices turned as markets began assessing

the damage done by the drone strike and started becoming less pessimistic about the impact on supply.

We believe this price behaviour is symptomatic of oil markets taking a myopic view of the situation. What

the markets are not pricing in is a reasonable geopolitical risk premium given the political fragility in the

region. The key risk is an escalation of tensions in the region resulting in sustained disruption to supply. In the

most extreme scenario, this could manifest in the form of an overt military conflict in the region causing the

Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important global oil chokepoints, to become a warzone. So how does

one avoid being myopic and form a reasonable expectation of where prices should be? At the very least,

we can zoom out on the oil price chart and observe that Brent was trading around $85/barrel roughly this

time last year. This is the time when US announced sanctions on Iran. Since then, global economic gloom

has shrouded the markets and expectations of weakening demand have caused oil prices to drop. While

demand growth may have slowed, we believe it is broadly steady and concerns about a protracted

reduction in demand, owing to trade wars or otherwise, may have been over-extrapolated. We therefore

still see upside potential in oil prices and believe a fairer price for Brent given the geopolitical risks is in the

$70-$75/barrel range.

Gold’s relatively flat performance last month following a strong rally since June is by no means a sign of the

metal losing its shine. We believe the risks that have caused investors to look towards historically safe haven

assets remain unchanged. What we are witnessing instead is investors turning to the broader precious

metals complex tactically not only to preserve wealth but make gains from a correlation rally. This has

given a strong impetus to silver in recent months and most recently to platinum and palladium.

Trade wars continue to weigh on industrial metals and agricultural commodities. There is cautious optimism

in markets for progress to be made as US and China resume talks. Despite renewed optimism over the US-

China trade negotiations due to take place in October, we expect all announced tariffs to be imposed as

scheduled but we believe there is a low probability of additional tariffs being imposed immediately. We

believe the attrition could continue for another few months and a deal may only be reached as we get

close to the US presidential election next year.

Nitesh Shah

Director

Aneeka Gupta

Associate Director

Mobeen Tahir

Associate Director

Current

Price2

Returns

(-1 Mth)

Positioning4

(- 1 Mth)

Sharp spike in oil markets as Saudi facilities are attacked. A drone attack on Saudi Aramco facilities

sent oil prices surging by more than 20% as markets opened on Monday 16 September before paring

initial gains later in the day. The attack is a reminder of the geopolitical risks in the region and the

potential supply shocks that may arise if they manifest.

Haven investing rally extends to the broader precious metals’ basket. Following a considerable rally

since June, gold was relatively flat last month. The rally however has extended to the wider basket with

speculative positioning driving the rally in silver and most recently platinum and palladium as investors

seek to gain from the correlation of other precious metals with gold.

Polarised performance across agricultural commodities. A new round of trade talks between the US

and China, due to take place in October are fuelling hopes of the US and China moving a step

forward in resolving the trade negotiations. However there remains plenty of ambiguity on the products

for which China plans to reduce the punitive tariffs for US agricultural suppliers. Most agricultural

commodities apart from cotton saw a steep rise in short positioning over the prior month.

Nickel outperforms amidst lacklustre performance across industrial metals. Nickel benefitted from the

announcement that the ban on Indonesian ore exports that was expected in 2022 had been brought

forward to January 2020. In comparison, the other industrial metals posted a lacklustre performance

owing to the weak global economic backdrop.

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13 Sep

Score

16 Aug

Score

Inventories3

(- 3 Mths)

Price vs 200

days MARoll Yield

5

Bloomberg TR Indexes for basket returns, data to Friday 13 September 2019.

Source: WisdomTree, Bloomberg

The score matrix is designed to highlight significant changes in key variables but should not be viewed as predictor of performance. Source: WisdomTree, Bloomberg

- Information not available. Green = returns positive, inventories falling, positioning rising, roll yield positive. Red = the opposite. Black = neutral. 1 Detailed explanation of the matrix calculations can be found at the end of this

report. 2 All prices are futures prices to Friday 13 Sep 19. Broad sector returns based on Bloomberg Commodity Index family. 3 % change in inventory over the past 3 months except for sugar and coffee which are based on past

6 months as data is updated bi-annually by USDA. 4 CFTC futures and LME COTR net positioning as at Sep 10, 2019 and Sep 13, 2019 respectively, % change from previous month. 5 Calculated as % difference between front

month and second month futures prices on report date.

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Precious Metals Livestock Industrial Metals

Energy Agriculture

Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

Agriculture Agriculture - September Returns*

Source: Bloomberg

Industrial Metals Industrial Metals - September Returns*

Source: Bloomberg

Energy Energy - September Returns*

Source: Bloomberg

Precious Metals Precious Metals - September Returns*

2

Source: Bloomberg

*Note: all returns are based on front month futures prices in the month to Friday 13 September 2019.


Nickel was the outlier among industrial metals, rising 11.9% over the prior month amidst a subdued

performance posted by the rest of the metals. While there have been signs of goodwill in the US-China

trade war after China moved to exempt some US goods from tariffs and President Trump agreed to

delay raising tariffs on US$250bn of goods from October 1 to October 15th, the global macro backdrop

remains weak. Chinese economic data in August lost momentum with industrial production, retail sales

and manufacturing investment weakening in August. Chinese export growth in August slid to -1% owing

to the trade war risks and subdued external demand. China’s central bank responded by cutting the

reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for all depository financial institutions by 50 basis points (bps) and

selected financial institutions by 100bps. Eurozone industrial production in July was worse than

expected showing a decline of -0.4%. In the US, the Institute of Supply Management’s (ISM) gauge of

manufacturing activity moved into negative territory in August for the first time since 2016. Despite

renewed optimism over the US-China trade negotiations due to take place in October, we expect all

announced tariffs to be imposed as scheduled but we believe there is a low probability of additional

tariffs being imposed immediately.

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The agricultural sector posted a polarised performance last month. At one end of the spectrum, feeder

cattle prices rose 6.9% while lean hogs declined 15.9% over the prior month. A new round of trade talks

between the US and China, due to take place in October are fuelling hopes of the US and China

moving a step forward in resolving the trade negotiatons. However there still remains plenty of

ambiguity on the products for which China plans to reduce the punitive tariffs for US agricultural

suppliers. According to the US Soybean Export Council, China bought sizeable quantities of soybeans,

apparently totalling 15 cargoes or more than 600,000 tons, which mark the biggest purchase since June

this year.

Corn prices remained under pressure over the prior month declining 2.9%. A bearish outlook on corn in

the monthly September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report added further

headwinds to corn prices. Corn yields were dropped only slightly and were offset with demand

decreases for corn used for ethanol. With use falling more than supply, corn ending stocks are

expected to be higher over the prior month.

Sector Overview

Oil markets in recent months have largely been fixated on demand for the commodity with economic

data and developments on the trade front being the major determinants of prices. In our previous

publications we have observed that weak prices imply an inadequate geopolitical risk premium being

demanded by investors particularly given the tensions in the Middle East. The latest attack on Saudi

Aramco facilities is a blunt reminder to markets of the fragility in the region and the disruptive impact

any geopolitical escalation could have on oil supply. An overt conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran

could indeed cause the Strait of Hormuz (the world’s most important oil transit chokepoint) to become

out of bounds for vessels, potentially creating a major supply shock.

Economically, global demand for oil has largely been steady. We have therefore recently been

forecasting Brent prices to attain levels around $70-$75 per barrel by the end of the year as the

geopolitical risk premium gets priced in and the Organisation for Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)

potentially tightens supply further. While a major conflict in the region remains an unpredictable event

that would fuel the oil price rally considerably, we expect volatility on the political front to continue in

the near term. Further support could be lent to prices if progress is made between US and China in their

trade talks. Thus, we see the skew of risks to oil prices to be on the upside for the rest of the year.

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Gold hovered around the $1500/oz mark last month as speculative positioning reached all time highs

surpassing levels achieved in 2016 around the Brexit referendum and US presidential election. We

believe the risks that have driven investors to seek safe havens in recent months propelling gold prices

are still alive. The Brexit puzzle remains unsolved as we approach the October 31st deadline, the trade

dispute between US and China continues, political risks in Europe have not dissipated, and tensions in

the Middle East are on the rise. In our base case, we project speculative positioning to come down

from current levels but expect monetary policy from the Federal Reserve (Fed) to remain

accommodative pushing gold up to $1550/oz by Q2 2020. In an alternative scenario however, if

speculative positioning remains at current levels, prices could reach $1820/oz around the same time.

The rest of the precious metals basket is experiencing a lagged rally on account of its correlation with

gold. Silver followed gold and has rallied since July defying generally unimpressive global

manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMIs). We expect silver to shine further based on our

internal model's base case and reach $19.90/oz before the end of the year before weakness in

manufacturing demand weighs on prices. Platinum and palladium, which are more industrial than

silver, rallied strongly last month with returns over 10% for both. This, again, reflects the correlation trade

across the broader precious metals complex with speculative positioning driving prices despite

fundamentals staying broadly unchanged.

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-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Na

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Bre

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WTI

Oil

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2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

Pla

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Pa

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Silv

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Go

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-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

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4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

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Positioning Top 5/Bottom 5 Change in CFTC Net Positions (over past month)1

Source: Bloomberg

Inventories Top 5/Bottom 5 Change in Inventories (over past 3 months)2

Curve Dynamics Top 5/Bottom 5 Roll Yields (front to next month)3

Source: Bloomberg

Technicals Top 5/Bottom 5 Price Diff to 200 day moving av. (dma)4

Source: Bloomberg

1 CFTC futures net positioning as at report date, percent change from previous month. 2 Percent change in inventory based on 3 month change (in %).

3 Roll yields calculated as percent change between front month futures price and next month futures price on Sep 13, 2019.4 Percent difference between the front month futures price and its 200 day moving average on Sep 13, 2019.

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Technical Overview (as of Sep 13, 2019)

Most agricultural commodities apart from cotton saw a steep rise in short positioning

over the prior month. Net speculative positioning in cocoa futures swung from net

long to net short contracts and is now trading more than 1-standard deviation

below its long-term average underpinning the extreme bearishness towards the

cocoa market.

Net speculative positioning on nickel futures rose 38% after confirmation that the

ban on Indonesian ore exports that was expected in 2022 had been brought

forward to January 2020.

Net positioning for Brent crude increased last month as investors covered their shorts

and added new long positions following price weakness in recent months.

Net speculative positioning in platinum increased by nearly 68% during the month as

investors sought to benefit from the correlation of the broader precious metals’

basket with gold.

Silver’s net speculative positioning increased by around 46% during the month

having accumulated considerably since June in line with speculative positioning in

gold.

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Coffee, lean hogs, corn, live cattle, sugar futures are in contango. Roll yields are

considerably negative with sugar at -8.8% and corn at -3.6% indicating that the

markets are in over-supply in the short-term.

The front end of the wheat futures contract reverted to backwardation with a roll

yield of +0.5% from being in contango with a roll yield of -0.8% a month ago.

Gasoline remains in strong backwardation at the front end on account of its

seasonal futures curve. Brent and WTI are both in backwardation and the oil rally on

16 September has made the curves more backwardated.

Cotton inventories have increased 8.4% over the past 3 months. In the latest WASDE

report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its forecasts for world ending

cotton stocks for 2019/20 to 1.3mn bales owing to higher beginning stocks but lower

production, consumption and world trade.

According to USDA, global soybean ending stocks for 2019/20 are lower as reduced

stocks for Argentina and the United States are partly offset by higher stocks for Brazil,

Iran and India.

Copper inventories have increased on average by 24% on all three exchanges over

the period owing to a seasonal demand lull.

In line with seasonal trends, WTI inventories continued their decline last month. They

have edged moderately towards the lower end of the preceding 5-year average +/-

1 standard deviation potentially indicating that demand might not be as weak as

markets think.

Natural gas inventories continue to build as per seasonal trends as winter

approaches and the demand for the commodity increases for heating purposes.

Source: Bloomberg

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Cotton futures staged a recovery over the prior month, rising 3.9% surpassing its 50-

dma. While it remains below its 200-dma, the condition of US cotton plants has

worsened considerably which could lend tailwind for further price upside.

Nickel prices surged by 37% above its 200-dma driven by the announcement of the

Indonesian ore export ban being moved forward to January 2020. We continue to

expect further upside for nickel owing to the ongoing supply deficit coupled with

rising demand from the Electric Vehicle (EV) industry.

According to the International Tin Association (ITA), concerted production cuts

planned by Chinese tin smelters are likely to result in a decline in domestic stocks.

The ITA expects Chinese tin production to fall this year to 145,000 – 150,000 tons in

accordance with the planned cuts. At the same time ITA expects Tin demand to

remain at 160,000 tons. Tin prices have drifted 15.3% below its 200-dma, however we

expect the further tightening of supply to support a price recovery in the near term.

It is unsurprising that the precious metals complex features in the chart given the

recent risk aversion in markets. Following a recovery in prices last month, palladium

now leads the pack and stands at 13.8% above its 200-day moving average.


-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Copper - Comex

Natural Gas

Copper - LME

Cotton

Heating Oil

Wheat

Soybeans

WTI Oil

Zinc

Aluminium

-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Nickel

Palladium

Platinum

Silver

Gold

Gasoline

Cotton

Sugar

Tin

Live Cattle

% < 200 dma % > 200 dma

-10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4%

Brent Oil

Feeder Cattle

Gasoline

Wheat

WTI Oil

Coffee

Lean Hogs

Corn

Live Cattle

Sugar

Contango Backwardation

-500% -400% -300% -200% -100% 0% 100%

Platinum

Brent Oil**

Silver

Heating Oil

Nickel

Live Cattle

Soybean Oil

Wheat

Corn

Cocoa

4 23 42 61 4 3

Unit ROLL YIELDS2 Unit

Exchang

e 13-Sep 1 Week 1 Month 3 Month

Energy EnergyWTI Oil 55 USD/bbl. -3.9% 4.9% -5.9% -20.0% WTI Oil USD/bbl. NYMEX 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% -0.5%

Brent Oil 60 USD/bbl. -1.8% -1.8% -10.9% -23.0% Brent Oil USD/bbl. ICE 1.6% 1.6% 0.6% 1.4%

Natural Gas 2.6 USD/MMBtu 21.8% 12.4% -7.3% -7.2% Natural Gas USD/MMBtu NYMEX -1.5% -2.2% -0.6% 0.1%

Gasoline 1.6 USd/gal. -10.6% -9.7% -16.4% -22.1% Gasoline USd/gal. NYMEX 1.2% 1.4% 9.2% 1.5%

Heating Oil 1.9 USd/gal. 0.0% 3.9% -5.7% -15.5% Heating Oil USd/gal. NYMEX 0.0% -0.1% -0.4% -0.5%

Carbon 26.4 EUR/MT -2.6% 5.9% 18.9% 39.7% Carbon EUR/MT ICE 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% -0.2%

Agriculture

Wheat 4.9 USd/bu. 2.9% -9.3% 10.3% 3.0% Wheat USd/bu. CBOT 0.5% -0.8% -0.8% -0.6%

Corn 3.6 USd/bu. -2.9% -19.6% -0.5% 5.7% Corn USd/bu. CBOT -3.6% -3.7% -2.8% -1.3%

Soybeans 8.8 USd/bu. 1.5% -0.4% -0.5% 7.5% Soybeans USd/bu. CBOT -1.6% -1.5% -0.5% -0.7%

Sugar 0.1 USd/lb. -7.1% -14.6% -11.9% -6.8% Sugar USd/lb. NYBOT -8.8% -7.9% -8.2% -1.2%

Cotton 0.6 USd/lb. 3.9% -7.8% -18.6% -24.5% Cotton USd/lb. NYBOT -1.0% 0.3% -0.1% -0.4%

Coffee 1.0 USd/lb. 3.3% 2.2% 5.3% 3.2% Coffee USd/lb. NYBOT -3.2% -3.3% -3.4% -2.4%

Soybean Oil 0.3 USd/lb. -0.8% 3.3% -2.5% 5.5% Soybean Oil USd/lb. CBOT -1.2% 0.1% 0.0% -0.5%

Cocoa 2,296 USD/MT 6.6% -9.1% 4.2% -0.8% Cocoa USD/MT NYBOT -1.8% -2.7% -2.4% 0.7%

Industrial Metals Industrial Metals

Aluminum 1,777 USD/MT 1.1% 1.2% -5.6% -12.4% Aluminum USD/MT LME -0.8% -0.6% -0.6% -0.7%

Copper 2.7 USd/lb. 1.9% 0.9% -8.6% 0.6% Copper USd/lb. COMEX -0.7% -0.7% -0.3% 0.0%

Copper (LME) 5,950 USD/MT 2.4% 2.0% -8.4% -1.1% Copper (LME) USD/MT LME -0.3% -0.2% -0.2% -0.3%

Zinc 2,384 USD/MT 2.9% -7.7% -17.4% 1.6% Zinc USD/MT LME -0.1% 0.1% -0.2% 2.1%

Nickel 17,810 USD/MT 11.9% 51.4% 35.7% 42.2% Nickel USD/MT LME 0.0% 0.1% -0.1% -0.2%

Lead 2,096 USD/MT 1.0% 10.5% -1.0% 3.5% Lead USD/MT LME -0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3%

Tin 16,470 USD/MT -4.0% -15.6% -22.3% -13.5% Tin USD/MT LME -0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%

Precious Metals Precious Metals

Gold 1,493 USD/t oz. -0.6% 11.5% 14.0% 24.1% Gold USD/t oz. COMEX -0.4% -0.4% -0.4% -0.3%

Silver 17.4 USD/t oz. 2.7% 17.1% 13.4% 23.3% Silver USD/t oz. COMEX -0.8% -0.8% -0.8% -0.5%

Platinum 952 USD/t oz. 10.8% 17.6% 13.1% 18.5% Platinum USD/t oz. NYMEX -0.6% -0.6% -0.6% -0.6%

Palladium 1,601 USD/t oz. 10.3% 12.0% 4.2% 60.5% Palladium USD/t oz. NYMEX 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% -0.6%

Livestock Livestock

Live Cattle 1.0 USd/lb. -2.5% -10.1% -22.6% -11.5% Live Cattle USd/lb. CME -6.0% -4.9% 1.3% 4.1%

Lean Hogs 0.7 USd/lb. -15.9% -16.1% 4.7% 19.4% Lean Hogs USd/lb. CME -3.2% 1.6% 22.3% -5.0%

Feeder Cattle 1.4 USd/lb. 6.9% 0.2% -3.6% -11.9% Feeder Cattle USd/lb. CME 1.4% 1.9% 0.4% -0.2%

EnergyE

nEnergy

WTI Oil 449,964 433,444 425,231 385,938 584,345 Oil - US 416,068 -4.9% -6% -14% -7%

Brent Oil** 221,033 173,437 145,401 88,886 296,145 Oil - OECD Europe** 346 -1% 2% -2% 7%

Natural Gas -146,835 -116,014 -216,003 -24,229 -71,882 Natural Gas - DOE 3,019 -4% 10% 45% 154%

Gasoline 50,972 71,575 64,012 86,548 98,403 Gasoline - DOE 228,904 2% -2% -3% -7%

Heating Oil -814 11,777 -1,356 -14,154 41,018 Heating Oil - DOE 11,012 -2% 7% 8% 1%

Agriculture Industrial Metals

Wheat 3,541 -43,386 17,785 -63,074 18,427 Aluminum 1,253,761 -52% -9% -19% -35%

Corn -71,960 64,478 137,585 -192,475 6,241 Aluminum - LME 910,950 -58% -7% -15% -24%

Soybeans -58,980 34,053 -37,634 -68,080 -77,854 Aluminium - SHFE 342,811 -23% -12% -28% -54%

Sugar -183,701 50,350 -117,956 -81,682 -106,501 Copper 493,264 -8% 5% 16% 24%

Cotton -23,546 53,746 -34,534 -1,700 82,663 Copper - LME 296,625 18% 9% 19% 165%

Coffee -39,767 -12,207 -28,217 -69,115 -99,293 Copper - SHFE 152,188 -16% -3% 5% -36%

Soybean Oil 12,645 33,953 40,862 48,703 -67,452 Copper - COMEX 44,451 -57% 7% 47% -13%

Cocoa -21,644 21,108 7,089 -17,530 6,563 Nickel - LME 166,680 -52% 16% 2% -14%

Industrial Metals5 Zinc 139,175 -71% -10% -15% -21%

Copper (COMEX) -40,309 1,428 -54,169 25,018 -8,964 Zinc - LME 62,550 -82% -17% -39% 6%

Copper (LME) 16,591 35,127 19,930 50,979 27,952 Zinc - SHFE 76,625 -40% -4% 26% -35%

Aluminum 154,630 155,396 149,931 152,304 180,152 Lead 99,491 -48% -17% 2% -6%

Nickel 38,925 16,207 28,111 20,393 -773 Lead - LME 75,650 -52% -7% 11% -3%

Zinc 30,601 44,808 32,318 62,904 29,396 Lead - SHFE 23,841 -30% -38% -19% -16%

Lead 56,983 51,015 57,255 48,911 53,385 Tin 11,842 32% 8% 3% 22%

Tin 9,227 7,930 8,673 9,720 7,145 Tin - LME 6,760 45% 38% 96% 496%

Precious Metals Tin - SHFE 5,082 17% -16% -37% -41%

Gold 309,774 142,899 344,267 98,852 -28,517A

gAgriculture

Silver 67,299 36,556 45,997 26,090 -28,323 Wheat - USDA 286,510 46.2% 0.4% -2.7% 5.9%

Platinum 36,975 23,272 22,054 17,864 -7,161 Corn - USDA 306,270 110% -0.5% 5.4% -0.7%

Palladium 11,600 13,774 9,014 13,091 6,695 Soybeans - USDA 99,190 57% -2.5% -12.0% -7%

Livestock Sugar - USDA 47,836 33% - - -6%

Live Cattle 20,158 82,856 48,872 152,612 73,757 Cotton - USDA 83,750 17% 1.6% 8.4% 10.1%

Lean Hogs 48,968 42,875 67,384 12,092 19,801 Coffee - USDA 33,545 -7% - - -8%

Feeder Cattle -3,772 6,829 -3,507 2,079 2,324 Soybean Oil - USDA 3,680 -11% -1.1% 5% -1%

1Performance of front month futures from 13 Sep 18 (1 Year), 13 Mar 19 (6 Month), 13 Jun 19 (3 Month) and 13 Aug 19 (1 Month) to 13 Sep 19.

2Roll return non-annualised from front month futures into second " month on 13 Jun 19 (3 Month), 13 Aug 19 (1 Month), 06 Sep 19 (1 Week), 13 Sep 19.

4

Summary Tables

INVENTORY LEVELS4

Current 1 Year

5 Yr

Average

PRICES1 3 Month

1 Month

6 Month1 Month

6 Month

3Net positions in number of contracts.

4Current inventories relative to 1, 3, 6 months ago. Under the column "5 yr average" is the current inventory level relative to 5 year average inventory.

For energy, 5 yr average is the average of the same month as report month over the past 5 years. SHFE started reporting inventory data from April 2015. 5All Industrial metals positioning

data (excluding copper) is sourced from LME COTR data in Bloomberg from 30 January 2018 (first available date) under post-MIFID rules. **Brent 5 Yr average of net positions from January

2011 as positions were not reported by CFTC before then and inventory data (OECD) reported with 3 month lag with current = June 2019.


Agriculture

1 YearCFTC NET POSITIONING3 6 MonthCurrent 3 Month

5 Yr

Average1 MonthCurrent

T

Agriculture

Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree



·Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree

Note: positioning in '000 contracts. Standard deviation based on 5 year average CFTC non-commercial net positioning 5

CFTC Speculative Net Long Futures Positions

All commodity futures price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated. CFTC futures and LME COTR net positioning as at Sep 10, 2019 and Sep 13, 2019 respectively.

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

3,000

3,200

3,400

3,600

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

Se

p-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ma

r-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Se

p-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ma

r-1

6

Ju

n-1

6

Se

p-1

6

De

c-1

6

Ma

r-1

7

Ju

n-1

7

Se

p-1

7

De

c-1

7

Ma

r-1

8

Ju

n-1

8

Se

p-1

8

De

c-1

8

Ma

r-19

Ju

n-1

9

Se

p-1

9

Cocoa

CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/MT)

-1x stdv

-2x stdv

1x stdv

2x stdv

5 Yr Average

2

3

3

4

4

5

5

-350

-250

-150

-50

50

150

250

350

450

Se

p-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ma

r-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Se

p-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ma

r-16

Ju

n-1

6

Se

p-1

6

De

c-1

6

Ma

r-1

7

Ju

n-1

7

Se

p-1

7

De

c-1

7

Ma

r-18

Ju

n-1

8

Se

p-1

8

De

c-1

8

Ma

r-1

9

Ju

n-1

9

Se

p-1

9

Corn

CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USd/bu.)

1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

0.25

0.27

0.29

0.31

0.33

0.35

0.37

0.39

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

Se

p-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ma

r-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Se

p-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ma

r-16

Ju

n-1

6

Se

p-1

6

De

c-1

6

Ma

r-17

Ju

n-1

7

Se

p-1

7

De

c-1

7

Ma

r-1

8

Ju

n-1

8

Se

p-1

8

De

c-1

8

Ma

r-1

9

Ju

n-1

9

Se

p-1

9

Soybean Oil

CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USd/lb.)

1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

0.10

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

0.20

0.22

0.24

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

Se

p-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ma

r-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Se

p-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ma

r-16

Ju

n-1

6

Se

p-1

6

De

c-1

6

Ma

r-1

7

Ju

n-1

7

Se

p-1

7

De

c-1

7

Ma

r-1

8

Ju

n-1

8

Se

p-1

8

De

c-1

8

Ma

r-19

Ju

n-1

9

Se

p-1

9

Sugar


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

8

9

9

10

10

11

11

12

12

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Se

p-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ma

r-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Se

p-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ma

r-1

6

Ju

n-1

6

Se

p-1

6

De

c-1

6

Ma

r-1

7

Ju

n-1

7

Se

p-1

7

De

c-1

7

Ma

r-18

Ju

n-1

8

Se

p-1

8

De

c-1

8

Ma

r-1

9

Ju

n-1

9

Se

p-1

9

Soybeans


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

3

4

4

5

5

6

6

7

7

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

Se

p-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ma

r-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Se

p-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ma

r-1

6

Ju

n-1

6

Se

p-1

6

De

c-1

6

Ma

r-1

7

Ju

n-1

7

Se

p-1

7

De

c-1

7

Ma

r-1

8

Ju

n-1

8

Se

p-1

8

De

c-1

8

Ma

r-1

9

Ju

n-1

9

Se

p-1

9

Wheat


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

0.3

0.8

1.3

1.8

2.3

2.8

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Se

p-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ma

r-15

Ju

n-1

5

Se

p-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ma

r-1

6

Ju

n-1

6

Se

p-1

6

De

c-1

6

Ma

r-17

Ju

n-1

7

Se

p-1

7

De

c-1

7

Ma

r-1

8

Ju

n-1

8

Se

p-1

8

De

c-1

8

Ma

r-19

Ju

n-1

9

Se

p-1

9

Coffee


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.9

0.9

1.0

1.0

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Se

p-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ma

r-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Se

p-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ma

r-1

6

Ju

n-1

6

Se

p-1

6

De

c-1

6

Ma

r-1

7

Ju

n-1

7

Se

p-1

7

De

c-1

7

Ma

r-18

Ju

n-1

8

Se

p-1

8

De

c-1

8

Ma

r-19

Ju

n-1

9

Se

p-1

9

Cotton


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average


Energy



Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree

6Note: positioning in '000 contracts. Standard deviation based on 5 year average CFTC non-commercial net positioning. All commodity futures price data is denominated in

USD unless otherwise indicated. *Brent average of net positions from January 2011 as positions were not reported by CFTC before then.


0.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.5

2.7

2.9

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Se

p-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ma

r-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Se

p-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ma

r-16

Ju

n-1

6

Se

p-1

6

De

c-1

6

Ma

r-1

7

Ju

n-1

7

Se

p-1

7

De

c-1

7

Ma

r-1

8

Ju

n-1

8

Se

p-1

8

De

c-1

8

Ma

r-1

9

Ju

n-1

9

Se

p-1

9

Heating Oil

CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USd/gal.)

1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

Se

p-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ma

r-15

Ju

n-1

5

Se

p-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ma

r-1

6

Ju

n-1

6

Se

p-1

6

De

c-1

6

Ma

r-1

7

Ju

n-1

7

Se

p-1

7

De

c-1

7

Ma

r-18

Ju

n-1

8

Se

p-1

8

De

c-1

8

Ma

r-19

Ju

n-1

9

Se

p-1

9

Natural Gas

CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/MMBtu)

1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Se

p-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ma

r-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Se

p-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ma

r-16

Ju

n-1

6

Se

p-1

6

De

c-1

6

Ma

r-1

7

Ju

n-1

7

Se

p-1

7

De

c-1

7

Ma

r-1

8

Ju

n-1

8

Se

p-1

8

De

c-1

8

Ma

r-19

Ju

n-1

9

Se

p-1

9

Brent Oil

ICE managed money net positioning Price (RHS, USD/bbl.)

1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

0.8

1.3

1.8

2.3

2.8

3.3

3.8

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Se

p-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ma

r-15

Ju

n-1

5

Se

p-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ma

r-1

6

Ju

n-1

6

Se

p-1

6

De

c-1

6

Ma

r-17

Ju

n-1

7

Se

p-1

7

De

c-1

7

Ma

r-1

8

Ju

n-1

8

Se

p-1

8

De

c-1

8

Ma

r-1

9

Ju

n-1

9

Se

p-1

9

Gasoline

CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USd/gal.)

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

1x stdv

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Se

p-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ma

r-15

Ju

n-1

5

Se

p-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ma

r-16

Ju

n-1

6

Se

p-1

6

De

c-1

6

Ma

r-1

7

Ju

n-1

7

Se

p-1

7

De

c-1

7

Ma

r-1

8

Ju

n-1

8

Se

p-1

8

De

c-1

8

Ma

r-1

9

Ju

n-1

9

Se

p-1

9

WTI Oil

CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/bbl.)

1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

Industrial Metals





7Note: positioning in '000 contracts. Standard deviation based on 5 year average CFTC non-commercial net positioning. LME non-commercial net positions from 30 January

2018 post MIFID II data and respective graphs represent daily data. All commodity futures price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated.


5,400

5,600

5,800

6,000

6,200

6,400

6,600

6,800

7,000

7,200

7,400

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Ja

n-1

8

Fe

b-1

8

Ma

r-1

8

Ap

r-1

8

Ma

y-1

8

Ju

n-1

8

Ju

l-1

8

Au

g-1

8

Se

p-1

8

Oc

t-18

No

v-1

8

De

c-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

r-1

9

Ap

r-1

9

Ma

y-1

9

Ju

n-1

9

Ju

l-1

9

Au

g-1

9

Copper (LME)

LME non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/MT)

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

3,000

3,200

3,400

3,600

3,800

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Ja

n-1

8

Fe

b-1

8

Ma

r-1

8

Ap

r-18

Ma

y-1

8

Ju

n-1

8

Ju

l-18

Au

g-1

8

Se

p-1

8

Oc

t-18

No

v-1

8

De

c-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

r-1

9

Ap

r-19

Ma

y-1

9

Ju

n-1

9

Ju

l-19

Au

g-1

9

Zinc


1,500

1,700

1,900

2,100

2,300

2,500

2,700

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Ja

n-1

8

Fe

b-1

8

Ma

r-1

8

Ap

r-1

8

Ma

y-1

8

Ju

n-1

8

Ju

l-1

8

Au

g-1

8

Se

p-1

8

Oc

t-18

No

v-1

8

De

c-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

r-1

9

Ap

r-1

9

Ma

y-1

9

Ju

n-1

9

Ju

l-1

9

Au

g-1

9

Lead


9,800

10,800

11,800

12,800

13,800

14,800

15,800

16,800

17,800

18,800

-14

-9

-4

1

6

11

16

21

26

31

36

41

46

51

Ja

n-1

8

Fe

b-1

8

Ma

r-1

8

Ap

r-18

Ma

y-1

8

Ju

n-1

8

Ju

l-1

8

Au

g-1

8

Se

p-1

8

Oc

t-1

8

No

v-1

8

De

c-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

r-1

9

Ap

r-1

9

Ma

y-1

9

Ju

n-1

9

Ju

l-1

9

Au

g-1

9

Nickel


1,700

1,900

2,100

2,300

2,500

2,700

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

Ja

n-1

8

Fe

b-1

8

Ma

r-1

8

Ap

r-1

8

Ma

y-1

8

Ju

n-1

8

Ju

l-1

8

Au

g-1

8

Se

p-1

8

Oc

t-18

No

v-1

8

De

c-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

r-1

9

Ap

r-19

Ma

y-1

9

Ju

n-1

9

Ju

l-1

9

Au

g-1

9

Aluminum


1.7

2.2

2.7

3.2

3.7

4.2

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Se

p-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ma

r-15

Ju

n-1

5

Se

p-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ma

r-1

6

Ju

n-1

6

Se

p-1

6

De

c-1

6

Ma

r-1

7

Ju

n-1

7

Se

p-1

7

De

c-1

7

Ma

r-1

8

Ju

n-1

8

Se

p-1

8

De

c-1

8

Ma

r-19

Ju

n-1

9

Se

p-1

9

Copper (COMEX)


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

15,500

16,500

17,500

18,500

19,500

20,500

21,500

22,500

0

5

10

15

Ja

n-1

8

Fe

b-1

8

Ma

r-1

8

Ap

r-1

8

Ma

y-1

8

Ju

n-1

8

Ju

l-1

8

Au

g-1

8

Se

p-1

8

Oc

t-18

No

v-1

8

De

c-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

r-1

9

Ap

r-1

9

Ma

y-1

9

Ju

n-1

9

Ju

l-1

9

Au

g-1

9

Tin


Precious Metals



Livestock



8Note: positioning in '000 contracts. Standard deviation based on 5 year average CFTC non-commercial net positioning. respective graphs represent daily data. All

commodity futures price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated.


0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Se

p-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ma

r-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Se

p-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ma

r-1

6

Ju

n-1

6

Se

p-1

6

De

c-1

6

Ma

r-1

7

Ju

n-1

7

Se

p-1

7

De

c-1

7

Ma

r-1

8

Ju

n-1

8

Se

p-1

8

De

c-1

8

Ma

r-1

9

Ju

n-1

9

Se

p-1

9

Lean Hogs


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

-50

0

50

100

150

200

Se

p-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ma

r-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Se

p-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ma

r-16

Ju

n-1

6

Se

p-1

6

De

c-1

6

Ma

r-1

7

Ju

n-1

7

Se

p-1

7

De

c-1

7

Ma

r-1

8

Ju

n-1

8

Se

p-1

8

De

c-1

8

Ma

r-19

Ju

n-1

9

Se

p-1

9

Live Cattle


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Se

p-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ma

r-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Se

p-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ma

r-1

6

Ju

n-1

6

Se

p-1

6

De

c-1

6

Ma

r-17

Ju

n-1

7

Se

p-1

7

De

c-1

7

Ma

r-1

8

Ju

n-1

8

Se

p-1

8

De

c-1

8

Ma

r-1

9

Ju

n-1

9

Se

p-1

9

Feeder Cattle


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

12

19

26

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Se

p-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ma

r-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Se

p-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ma

r-1

6

Ju

n-1

6

Se

p-1

6

De

c-1

6

Ma

r-1

7

Ju

n-1

7

Se

p-1

7

De

c-1

7

Ma

r-1

8

Ju

n-1

8

Se

p-1

8

De

c-1

8

Ma

r-1

9

Ju

n-1

9

Se

p-1

9

Silver

CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/t oz.)

1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Se

p-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ma

r-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Se

p-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ma

r-16

Ju

n-1

6

Se

p-1

6

De

c-1

6

Ma

r-1

7

Ju

n-1

7

Se

p-1

7

De

c-1

7

Ma

r-1

8

Ju

n-1

8

Se

p-1

8

De

c-1

8

Ma

r-1

9

Ju

n-1

9

Se

p-1

9

Gold


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

450

650

850

1,050

1,250

1,450

1,650

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Se

p-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ma

r-15

Ju

n-1

5

Se

p-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ma

r-1

6

Ju

n-1

6

Se

p-1

6

De

c-1

6

Ma

r-1

7

Ju

n-1

7

Se

p-1

7

De

c-1

7

Ma

r-1

8

Ju

n-1

8

Se

p-1

8

De

c-1

8

Ma

r-1

9

Ju

n-1

9

Se

p-1

9

Palladium


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

750

950

1,150

1,350

1,550

1,750

1,950

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Se

p-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ma

r-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Se

p-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ma

r-1

6

Ju

n-1

6

Se

p-1

6

De

c-1

6

Ma

r-1

7

Ju

n-1

7

Se

p-1

7

De

c-1

7

Ma

r-1

8

Ju

n-1

8

Se

p-1

8

De

c-1

8

Ma

r-19

Ju

n-1

9

Se

p-1

9

Platinum


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

Agriculture

Source: USDA, Bloomberg,WisdomTree Source: USDA, Bloomberg,WisdomTree

Source: USDA, Bloomberg, WisdomTree Source: USDA, Bloomberg, WisdomTree

Source: USDA, Bloomberg,WisdomTree Source: USDA, Bloomberg, WisdomTree

•

·Source: USDA, Bloomberg, WisdomTree Source: USDA, Bloomberg, WisdomTree

9

Inventories

Note: Ending stocks, inventories and stock to use data from the USDA are annual with monthly update of 2017/2018 estimates.


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

82

/83

84

/85

86

/87

88

/89

90

/91

92

/93

94

/95

96

/97

98

/99

00

/01

02

/03

04

/05

06

/07

08

/09

10/1

1

12/1

3

14/1

5

16/1

7

18/1

9

Corn - Stock to UseAnnual data in %, from 1980 to 2018

% chg in projections vs.

previous = 6.0%

0

50

100

150

200

250

82

/83

84

/85

86

/87

88

/89

90

/91

92

/93

94

/95

96

/97

98

/99

00

/01

02

/03

04

/05

06

/07

08

/09

10

/11

12

/13

14

/15

16

/17

18

/19

Coffee - Stock to UseAnnual data in %, from 1980 to 2018

% chg in projections

vs. previous = 0.0%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

82

/83

84

/85

86

/87

88

/89

90

/91

92

/93

94

/95

96

/97

98

/99

00

/01

02

/03

04

/05

06

/07

08

/09

10/1

1

12/1

3

14/1

5

16/1

7

18/1

9

Cotton - Stock to UseAnnual data in %, from 1980 to 2018


vs. previous = 11.7%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

82

/83

84

/85

86

/87

88

/89

90

/91

92

/93

94

/95

96

/97

98

/99

00

/01

02

/03

04

/05

06

/07

08

/09

10

/11

12

/13

14

/15

16

/17

18

/19

Soybeans - Stock to UseAnnual data in %, from 1980 to 2018

% chg in projections vs. previous = -11.5%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

82/8

3

84/8

5

86/8

7

88

/89

90

/91

92

/93

94

/95

96

/97

98

/99

00/0

1

02/0

3

04/0

5

06/0

7

08/0

9

10

/11

12

/13

14

/15

16

/17

18

/19

Soybeans - Ending StocksAnnual data in , from 1980 to 2018

chg in projections vs. previous = -13.5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

82

/83

84

/85

86

/87

88

/89

90

/91

92

/93

94

/95

96

/97

98

/99

00

/01

02

/03

04

/05

06

/07

08

/09

10

/11

12

/13

14

/15

16

/17

18

/19

Coffee - Ending StocksAnnual data in mln bags (60 kg), from 1980 to 2018

chg in projections

vs. previous = -2.9

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

82

/83

84

/85

86

/87

88

/89

90

/91

92

/93

94

/95

96

/97

98

/99

00

/01

02

/03

04

/05

06

/07

08

/09

10/1

1

12/1

3

14/1

5

16/1

7

18/1

9

Cotton - Ending StocksAnnual data in mln 480 lb Bales, from 1980 to 2018

chg in projections vs.

previous = 6.5

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

82

/83

84

/85

86

/87

88

/89

90

/91

92

/93

94

/95

96

/97

98

/99

00

/01

02

/03

04

/05

06

/07

08

/09

10/1

1

12/1

3

14/1

5

16/1

7

18/1

9

Corn - Ending StocksAnnual data in mln tons, from 1980 to 2018

chg in projections

vs. previous = 15.8




Source: International Cocoa Organisation, Bloomberg, WisdomTree

10Note: Ending stocks, inventories and stock to use data from the USDA are annual with monthly update of 2018/2019 estimates.


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

82

/83

84

/85

86

/87

88

/89

90

/91

92

/93

94

/95

96

/97

98

/99

00

/01

02

/03

04

/05

06

/07

08

/09

10

/11

12

/13

14

/15

16

/17

18

/19

Wheat - Stock to UseAnnual data in %, from 1980 to 2018


previous = -1.8%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

95

/96

96

/97

97

/98

98

/99

99

/00

00

/01

01

/02

02

/03

03

/04

04

/05

05

/06

06

/07

07

/08

08

/09

09

/10

10

/11

11

/12

12

/13

13

/14

14

/15

15

/16

16

/17

17

/18

18

/19

Sugar - Stock to UseAnnual data in %, from 1998 to 2018


vs. previous = 0%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

82

/83

84

/85

86

/87

88

/89

90

/91

92

/93

94

/95

96

/97

98

/99

00

/01

02

/03

04

/05

06

/07

08

/09

10/1

1

12/1

3

14/1

5

16/1

7

18/1

9

Soybean Oil - Stock to UseAnnual data in %, from 1980 to 2018


previous = 5.1%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

82/8

3

84/8

5

86/8

7

88/8

9

90/9

1

92/9

3

94/9

5

96/9

7

98/9

9

00/0

1

02/0

3

04/0

5

06/0

7

08/0

9

10/1

1

12/1

3

14/1

5

16/1

7

18/1

9

Wheat - Ending StocksAnnual data in mln tons, from 1980 to 2018


previous = -7.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

82/8

3

84

/85

86

/87

88

/89

90

/91

92/9

3

94/9

5

96/9

7

98/9

9

00

/01

02

/03

04

/05

06

/07

08

/09

10/1

1

12/1

3

14/1

5

16/1

7

18

/19

Sugar - Ending StocksAnnual data in mln Metric Tons, from 1980 to 2018


previous = -11.3

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

82

/83

84

/85

86

/87

88

/89

90

/91

92

/93

94

/95

96

/97

98

/99

00

/01

02

/03

04

/05

06

/07

08

/09

10/1

1

12/1

3

14/1

5

16/1

7

18/1

9

Soybean Oil - Ending StocksAnnual data in mln Metric Tons, from 1980 to 2018


previous = 0.2

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

Cocoa - InventoryAnnual data in '000 metric tons, from 1981 to 2018

Industrial Metals


Source: LME, Bloomberg, WisdomTree Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree

Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree Source: LME, Bloomberg, WisdomTree

Livestock


11Note: Ending stocks, inventories and stock to use data from the USDA are annual with monthly update of 2018/2019 estimates.


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Se

p-1

8

Oc

t-18

No

v-1

8

De

c-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

r-1

9

Ap

r-1

9

Ma

y-1

9

Ju

n-1

9

Ju

l-1

9

Au

g-1

9

Se

p-1

9

Tin Inventory

LME Inventory (in '000 tonnes) SHFE Inventory (in '000 tonnes)

Daily data in '000 MT, from 13 Sep 18 to 13 Sep 19

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

Se

p 1

8

Oc

t 1

8

No

v 1

8

De

c 1

8

Ja

n 1

9

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Ju

l 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Lead Inventory

SHFE Inventory (in '000 tonnes) LME Inventory (in '000 tonnes)

Daily data, from 13 Sep 18 to 13 Sep 19

0

50

100

150

200

250

Se

p-1

8

Oc

t-18

No

v-1

8

De

c-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

r-19

Ap

r-19

Ma

y-1

9

Ju

n-1

9

Ju

l-19

Au

g-1

9

Se

p-1

9

Nickel InventoryDaily data in '000 MT, from 13 Sep 18 to 13 Sep 19

40

90

140

190

240

290

Se

p 1

8

Oc

t 18

No

v 1

8

De

c 1

8

Ja

n 1

9

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Ju

l 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Zinc Inventory



0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Se

p 1

8

Oc

t 1

8

No

v 1

8

De

c 1

8

Jan

19

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Aluminum Inventory



80

130

180

230

280

330

380

430

480

530

580

Se

p 1

8

Oc

t 1

8

No

v 1

8

De

c 1

8

Jan

19

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 1

9

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Copper Inventory

SHFE Inventory (in '000 tonnes) COMEX Inventory (in '000 tonnes)

LME Inventory (in '000 tonnes)


640

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

800

820

840

82

/83

84

/85

86

/87

88

/89

90

/91

92

/93

94

/95

96

/97

98

/99

00

/01

02

/03

04

/05

06

/07

08

/09

10

/11

12

/13

14

/15

16

/17

18

/19

Lean Hogs InventoryAnnual data in mln Heads, from 1980 to 2018

900

950

1,000

1,050

1,100

1,150

82

/83

84

/85

86

/87

88

/89

90

/91

92

/93

94

/95

96

/97

98

/99

00

/01

02

/03

04

/05

06

/07

08

/09

10

/11

12

/13

14

/15

16

/17

18

/19

Live Cattle InventoryAnnual data in mln Heads, from 1980 to 2018

Energy

Source: DOE, Bloomberg, WisdomTree Source: IEA, Bloomberg, WisdomTree

Source: DOE, Bloomberg, WisdomTree Source: DOE, Bloomberg, WisdomTree

Source: DOE, Bloomberg, WisdomTree

12Note: "Oil - OECD Inventory" represents OECD industry stocks and is reported with a 2 month lag.


300

350

400

450

500

550

600

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51

US Oil Inventory

5Yr Average +/-1 stdev 2018 2019

Weekly data in mln barrels, from Sep 14 to Sep 19

200

210

220

230

240

250

260

270

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51

Gasoline Inventory



500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

1 3 5 7 9 111315171921232527293133353739414345474951

Natural Gas Inventory


Weekly data in billion cubic feet, from Sep 14 to Sep 19

6

11

16

21

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51

Heating Oil Inventory



280

290

300

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

OECD Europe Oil Industry Inventory


Monthly data in mln barrels, from Jun 14 to Jun 19

Agriculture




·


13

Commodities Front Month Futures and

Trading Volumes

Note: all commodity futures trading volume and price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated.


$1,600

$1,800

$2,000

$2,200

$2,400

$2,600

$2,800

$3,000

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Se

p 1

8

Oc

t 1

8

No

v 1

8

De

c 1

8

Jan

19

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 1

9

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Cocoa Front Month Futures Price

Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 50 dma (RHS) 200 dma (RHS)

Daily data in USD/MT, from 13 Sep 18 to 13 Sep 19

$3.2

$3.4

$3.6

$3.8

$4.0

$4.2

$4.4

$4.6

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Se

p 1

8

Oc

t 1

8

No

v 1

8

De

c 1

8

Jan

19

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 1

9

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Corn Front Month Futures Price


Daily data in USd/bu., from 13 Sep 18 to 13 Sep 19

$0.20

$0.22

$0.24

$0.26

$0.28

$0.30

$0.32

-500

500

1,500

2,500

3,500

4,500

5,500

Se

p 1

8

Oc

t 1

8

No

v 1

8

De

c 1

8

Jan

19

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Jul 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Soybean Oil Front Month Futures Price


Daily data in USd/lb., from 13 Sep 18 to 13 Sep 19

$0.05

$0.06

$0.07

$0.08

$0.09

$0.10

$0.11

$0.12

$0.13

$0.14

$0.15

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Se

p 1

8

Oc

t 1

8

No

v 1

8

De

c 1

8

Ja

n 1

9

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Ju

l 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Sugar Front Month Futures Price



$0.7

$0.8

$0.9

$1.0

$1.1

$1.2

$1.3

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Se

p 1

8

Oc

t 1

8

No

v 1

8

De

c 1

8

Jan

19

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 1

9

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Coffee Front Month Futures Price



$0.50

$0.55

$0.60

$0.65

$0.70

$0.75

$0.80

$0.85

$0.90

-150

350

850

1,350

1,850

2,350

2,850

3,350

Se

p 1

8

Oc

t 1

8

No

v 1

8

De

c 1

8

Jan

19

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Ju

l 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Cotton Front Month Futures Price



$7.0

$7.5

$8.0

$8.5

$9.0

$9.5

$10.0

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Se

p 1

8

Oc

t 1

8

No

v 1

8

De

c 1

8

Jan

19

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Ju

l 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Soybeans Front Month Futures Price



$3.5

$4.0

$4.5

$5.0

$5.5

$6.0

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

Se

p 1

8

Oc

t 1

8

No

v 1

8

De

c 1

8

Jan

19

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 1

9

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Wheat Front Month Futures Price



Energy




Carbon


14Note: all commodity futures trading volume and price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated.


$40

$45

$50

$55

$60

$65

$70

$75

$80

$85

$90

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

Se

p 1

8

Oc

t 1

8

No

v 1

8

De

c 1

8

Jan

19

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Brent Oil Front Month Futures Price


Daily data in USD/bbl., from 13 Sep 18 to 13 Sep 19

$1.9

$2.4

$2.9

$3.4

$3.9

$4.4

$4.9

$5.4

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

Se

p 1

8

Oc

t 1

8

No

v 1

8

De

c 1

8

Ja

n 1

9

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Ju

l 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Natural Gas Front Month Futures Price


Daily data in USD/MMBtu, from 13 Sep 18 to 13 Sep 19

$1.3

$1.5

$1.7

$1.9

$2.1

$2.3

$2.5

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

Se

p 1

8

Oc

t 1

8

No

v 1

8

De

c 1

8

Ja

n 1

9

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Jul 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Heating Oil Front Month Futures Price


Daily data in USd/gal., from 13 Sep 18 to 13 Sep 19

3.4 €

8.4 €

13.4 €

18.4 €

23.4 €

28.4 €

€0

€200

€400

€600

€800

€1,000

€1,200

€1,400

€1,600

Se

p 1

8

Oc

t 1

8

No

v 1

8

De

c 1

8

Jan

19

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Carbon Front Month Futures Price


Daily data in EUR/MT, from 13 Sep 18 to 13 Sep 19

$40

$45

$50

$55

$60

$65

$70

$75

$80

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

Se

p 1

8

Oc

t 1

8

No

v 1

8

De

c 1

8

Ja

n 1

9

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Jul 1

9

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

WTI Oil Front Month Futures Price


Daily data in USD/bbl., from 13 Sep 18 to 13 Sep 19

$1.2

$1.3

$1.4

$1.5

$1.6

$1.7

$1.8

$1.9

$2.0

$2.1

$2.2

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000Se

p 1

8

Oc

t 1

8

No

v 1

8

De

c 1

8

Jan

19

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Gasoline Front Month Futures Price


Daily data in USd/gal., from 13 Sep 18 to 13 Sep 19

Industrial Metals







$1,500

$1,600

$1,700

$1,800

$1,900

$2,000

$2,100

$2,200

$2,300

-$4,000

$1,000

$6,000

$11,000

$16,000

$21,000

$26,000

Se

p 1

8

Oc

t 1

8

No

v 1

8

De

c 1

8

Ja

n 1

9

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Ju

l 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Aluminum Front Month Futures Price



$1,900

$2,100

$2,300

$2,500

$2,700

$2,900

$3,100

$3,300

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

$18,000

$20,000

Se

p 1

8

Oc

t 1

8

No

v 1

8

De

c 1

8

Jan

19

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 1

9

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Zinc Front Month Futures Price



$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

$18,000

$20,000

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

Se

p 1

8

Oc

t 1

8

No

v 1

8

De

c 1

8

Ja

n 1

9

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Jul 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Nickel Front Month Futures Price



$1.8

$2.0

$2.2

$2.4

$2.6

$2.8

$3.0

$3.2

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

$18,000

Se

p 1

8

Oc

t 18

No

v 1

8

De

c 1

8

Jan

19

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 1

9

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 1

9

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Copper (COMEX) Front Month Futures Price



$15,000

$16,000

$17,000

$18,000

$19,000

$20,000

$21,000

$22,000

$23,000

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

Se

p 1

8

Oc

t 1

8

No

v 1

8

De

c 1

8

Jan

19

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Tin Front Month Futures Price



$1,700

$1,800

$1,900

$2,000

$2,100

$2,200

$2,300

$2,400

$2,500

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

Se

p 1

8

Oc

t 1

8

No

v 1

8

De

c 1

8

Jan

19

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Ju

l 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Lead Front Month Futures Price



$4,200

$4,700

$5,200

$5,700

$6,200

$6,700

$7,200

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000Se

p 1

8

Oc

t 1

8

No

v 1

8

De

c 1

8

Jan

19

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 1

9

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Copper (LME) Front Month Futures Price

Volume ($mn) 200 dma (RHS) 50 dma (RHS) Prices (RHS)


Precious Metals



Livestock





$1.10

$1.20

$1.30

$1.40

$1.50

$1.60

$1.70

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

Se

p 1

8

Oc

t 1

8

No

v 1

8

De

c 1

8

Ja

n 1

9

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Ju

l 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Feeder Cattle Front Month Futures Price



$0.32

$0.42

$0.52

$0.62

$0.72

$0.82

$0.92

$1.02

$200

$700

$1,200

$1,700

$2,200

$2,700

$3,200

$3,700

$4,200

$4,700

Se

p 1

8

Oc

t 1

8

No

v 1

8

De

c 1

8

Ja

n 1

9

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Ju

l 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Lean Hogs Front Month Futures Price



$750

$800

$850

$900

$950

$1,000

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

Se

p 1

8

Oc

t 1

8

No

v 1

8

De

c 1

8

Ja

n 1

9

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Ju

l 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Platinum Front Month Futures Price


Daily data in USD/t oz., from 13 Sep 18 to 13 Sep 19

$1,100

$1,150

$1,200

$1,250

$1,300

$1,350

$1,400

$1,450

$1,500

$1,550

$1,600

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

Se

p 1

8

Oc

t 1

8

No

v 1

8

De

c 1

8

Jan

19

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 1

9

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Gold Front Month Futures Price



$0.90

$0.95

$1.00

$1.05

$1.10

$1.15

$1.20

$1.25

$1.30

$1.35

$1.40

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

Se

p 1

8

Oc

t 1

8

No

v 1

8

De

c 1

8

Ja

n 1

9

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Ju

l 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Live Cattle Front Month Futures Price



$500

$700

$900

$1,100

$1,300

$1,500

$1,700

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

Se

p 1

8

Oc

t 1

8

No

v 1

8

De

c 1

8

Jan

19

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Ju

l 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Palladium Front Month Futures Price



$13

$14

$15

$16

$17

$18

$19

$20

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

$18,000

$20,000

Se

p 1

8

Oc

t 1

8

No

v 1

8

De

c 1

8

Ja

n 1

9

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 19

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Ju

l 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Silver Front Month Futures Price



Agriculture




·Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree

17

Futures Curves

Note: all commodity futures price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated.


$2,050

$2,150

$2,250

$2,350

$2,450

$2,550

$2,650

M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 M8 M9 M10Maturity (Month)

Cocoa Futures

13 Sep 19 06 Sep 19 13 Aug 19 13 Jun 19

USD/MT

$0.80

$0.90

$1.00

$1.10

$1.20

$1.30

$1.40

$1.50

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

M13

M14

M15

Maturity (Month)

Coffee Futures

13 Sep 19 06 Sep 19 13 Aug 19 13 Jun 19

USd/lb.

$3.3

$3.5

$3.7

$3.9

$4.1

$4.3

$4.5

$4.7

$4.9

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

M13

M14

M15

Maturity (Month)

Corn Futures

13 Sep 19 06 Sep 19 13 Aug 19 13 Jun 19

USd/bu.

$0.54

$0.56

$0.58

$0.60

$0.62

$0.64

$0.66

$0.68

$0.70

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

M13

M14

M15

Maturity (Month)

Cotton Futures

13 Sep 19 06 Sep 19 13 Aug 19 13 Jun 19

USd/lb.

$0.270

$0.280

$0.290

$0.300

$0.310

$0.320

$0.330

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

M13

M14

Maturity (Month)

Soybean Oil Futures

13 Sep 19 06 Sep 19 13 Aug 19 13 Jun 19

USd/lb.

$8.3

$8.8

$9.3

$9.8

$10.3

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

M13

M14

M15

M16

M17

M18

M19

M20

M21

Maturity (Month)

Soybeans Futures

13 Sep 19 06 Sep 19 13 Aug 19 13 Jun 19

USd/bu.

$0.080

$0.090

$0.100

$0.110

$0.120

$0.130

$0.140

$0.150

$0.160

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

Maturity (Month)

Sugar Futures

13 Sep 19 06 Sep 19 13 Aug 19 13 Jun 19

USd/lb.

$4.0

$4.5

$5.0

$5.5

$6.0

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

M13

Maturity (Month)

Wheat Futures

13 Sep 19 06 Sep 19 13 Aug 19 13 Jun 19

USd/bu.

Energy




Carbon


18Note: all commodity futures price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated.


$54

$55

$56

$57

$58

$59

$60

$61

$62

M1

M3

M5

M7

M9

M11

M13

M15

M17

M19

M21

M23

M25

M27

M29

M31

M33

M35

Maturity (Month)

Brent Oil Futures

13 Sep 19 06 Sep 19 13 Aug 19 13 Jun 19

USD/bbl.

$45

$50

$55

$60

$65

$70

M1

M3

M5

M7

M9

M11

M13

M15

M17

M19

M21

M23

M25

M27

M29

M31

M33

M35

Maturity (Month)

WTI Oil Futures

13 Sep 19 06 Sep 19 13 Aug 19 13 Jun 19

USD/bbl.

$1.9

$2.1

$2.3

$2.5

$2.7

$2.9

$3.1

M1

M3

M5

M7

M9

M11

M13

M15

M17

M19

M21

M23

M25

M27

M29

M31

M33

M35

Maturity (Month)

Natural Gas Futures

13 Sep 19 06 Sep 19 13 Aug 19 13 Jun 19

USD/MMBtu

$1.30

$1.35

$1.40

$1.45

$1.50

$1.55

$1.60

$1.65

$1.70

$1.75

$1.80

M1

M3

M5

M7

M9

M1

1

M13

M15

M17

M19

M21

M23

M25

M27

M29

M31

M3

3

M3

5

Maturity (Month)

Gasoline Futures

13 Sep 19 06 Sep 19 13 Aug 19 13 Jun 19

USd/gal.

$1.70

$1.75

$1.80

$1.85

$1.90

$1.95

M1

M3

M5

M7

M9

M11

M13

M15

M17

M19

M21

M23

M25

M27

M29

M31

M33

M35

Maturity (Month)

Heating Oil Futures

13 Sep 19 06 Sep 19 13 Aug 19 13 Jun 19

USd/gal.

17.0 €

19.0 €

21.0 €

23.0 €

25.0 €

27.0 €

29.0 €

31.0 €

33.0 €

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

M13

M14

M15

M16

M17

M18

M19

M20

M21

M22

M23

Maturity (Month)

Carbon Futures

13 Sep 19 06 Sep 19 13 Aug 19 13 Jun 19

EUR/MT

Industrial Metals







$1,660

$1,760

$1,860

$1,960

$2,060

$2,160

M1

M3

M5

M7

M9

M11

M13

M15

M17

M19

M21

M23

M25

M27

M29

M31

M33

M35

Maturity (Month)

Aluminum Futures

13 Sep 19 06 Sep 19 13 Aug 19 13 Jun 19

USD/MT

$1,600

$1,700

$1,800

$1,900

$2,000

$2,100

$2,200

M1

M3

M5

M7

M9

M11

M13

M15

M17

M19

M21

M23

M25

M27

M29

M31

M33

M35

Maturity (Month)

Lead Futures

13 Sep 19 06 Sep 19 13 Aug 19 13 Jun 19

USD/MT

$2.55

$2.60

$2.65

$2.70

$2.75

$2.80

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M1

0

M11

M12

M13

M14

M15

M16

M17

M18

M19

M20

M21

M22

M23

M24

M25

Maturity (Month)

Copper (COMEX) Futures

13 Sep 19 06 Sep 19 13 Aug 19 13 Jun 19

USd/lb.

$5,400

$5,500

$5,600

$5,700

$5,800

$5,900

$6,000

$6,100

$6,200

$6,300

$6,400M

1

M3

M5

M7

M9

M11

M13

M15

M17

M19

M21

M23

M25

M27

M29

M31

M33

M35

Maturity (Month)

Copper (LME) Futures

13 Sep 19 06 Sep 19 13 Aug 19 13 Jun 19

USD/MT

$15,500

$16,500

$17,500

$18,500

$19,500

$20,500

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

M13

M14

M15

Maturity (Month)

Tin Futures

13 Sep 19 06 Sep 19 13 Aug 19 13 Jun 19

USD/MT

$11,400$11,800$12,200$12,600$13,000$13,400$13,800$14,200$14,600$15,000$15,400$15,800$16,200$16,600$17,000$17,400$17,800$18,200$18,600$19,000

M1

M3

M5

M7

M9

M11

M13

M15

M17

M19

M21

M23

M25

M27

M29

M31

M33

M35

Maturity (Month)

Nickel Futures

13 Sep 19 06 Sep 19 13 Aug 19 13 Jun 19

USD/MT

$2,100

$2,200

$2,300

$2,400

$2,500

$2,600

$2,700

$2,800

$2,900

$3,000

M1

M3

M5

M7

M9

M11

M13

M15

M17

M19

M21

M23

M25

M27

M29

M31

M33

M35

Maturity (Month)

Zinc Futures

13 Sep 19 06 Sep 19 13 Aug 19 13 Jun 19

USD/MT

Precious Metals



Livestock





$14.0

$15.0

$16.0

$17.0

$18.0

$19.0

$20.0

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

M13

M14

M15

M16

Maturity (Month)

Silver Futures

13 Sep 19 06 Sep 19 13 Aug 19 13 Jun 19

USD/t oz.

$1,180

$1,230

$1,280

$1,330

$1,380

$1,430

$1,480

$1,530

$1,580

$1,630

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

M13

M14

M15

M16

M17

M18

M19

M20

Maturity (Month)

Gold Futures

13 Sep 19 06 Sep 19 13 Aug 19 13 Jun 19

USD/t oz.

$760

$810

$860

$910

$960

$1,010

M1 M2 M3 M4 M5Maturity (Month)

Platinum Futures

13 Sep 19 06 Sep 19 13 Aug 19 13 Jun 19

USD/t oz.

$1,100

$1,200

$1,300

$1,400

$1,500

$1,600

$1,700

M1 M2 M3 M4 M5Maturity (Month)

Palladium Futures

13 Sep 19 06 Sep 19 13 Aug 19 13 Jun 19

USD/t oz.

$0.40

$0.50

$0.60

$0.70

$0.80

$0.90

$1.00

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

Maturity (Month)

Lean Hogs Futures

13 Sep 19 06 Sep 19 13 Aug 19 13 Jun 19

USd/lb.

$0.90

$0.95

$1.00

$1.05

$1.10

$1.15

$1.20

M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 M8Maturity (Month)

Live Cattle Futures

13 Sep 19 06 Sep 19 13 Aug 19 13 Jun 19

USd/lb.

$1.24

$1.26

$1.28

$1.30

$1.32

$1.34

$1.36

$1.38

M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 M8Maturity (Month)

Feeder Cattle Futures

13 Sep 19 06 Sep 19 13 Aug 19 13 Jun 19

USd/lb.

C

Commodity Monthly Matrix Explained

CALENDAR

WisdomTree - Recent Blogs

17-Sep-19 Nitesh Shah Oil price shock could be followed by large geopolitical tremors

10-Sep-19 Christopher Gannatti The cloud computing megatrend for growth amidst uncertainty

03-Sep-19 Nitesh Shah Faster than a speeding (silver) bullet

21-Aug-19 Nitesh Shah Gold could rise to over US$1800/oz if geopolitical risks remain elevated

12-Aug-19 Aneeka Gupta The gold market reigns supreme

02-Aug-19 Kevin Flanagan Like a good neighbour the Fed is there

25-Jul-19 Aneeka Gupta June ETP Flows: Buy the rumour, sell the fact

23-Jul-19 Aneeka Gupta ECB: A stitch in time saves nine

16-Jul-19 Christopher Gannatti How WisdomTree classifies artificial intelligence companies – Part 2

10-Jul-19 Christopher Gannatti How WisdomTree classifies artificial intelligence companies

08-Jul-19 Nitesh Shah 40 Years of fraught US-Iran tension in the Persian Gulf plays on

03-Jul-19 Aneeka Gupta Platinum's turn to shine in 2019

26-Jun-19 Nitesh Shah Gold above US$1400, where next?

WisdomTree - Past Issues of Commodity Monthly Monitor

Jul - Aug 2019 Research Team Trump and Xi's Midas touch

Jun - Jul 2019 Research Team Pre-committed Fed drives a rally across cyclicals & defensives

May - Jun 2019 Research Team All Eyes on the G-20 Summit

Apr - May 2019 Research Team Trade reprices commodity risk

Mar - Apr 2019 Research Team Commodities hanging on the balance of a trade deal

The research notes are for qualified investors only.

Key Reports

Current Next release

12-Aug-19 12-Sep-19 USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

06-Aug-19 10-Sep-19 EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook

16-Aug-19 11-Sep-19 OPEC OPEC Oil Market Report

09-Aug-19 12-Sep-19 IEA IEA Oil Market Report

DISCLAIMER

Important Information

Communications issued in the European Economic Area (“EEA”): This document has been issued and approved by WisdomTree Ireland Limited, which is authorised and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland.

Communications issued in jurisdictions outside of the EEA: This document has been issued and approved by WisdomTree UK Limited, which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.

WisdomTree Ireland Limited and WisdomTree UK Limited are each referred to as “WisdomTree” (as applicable). Our Conflicts of Interest Policy and Inventory are available on request.

For professional clients only. The information contained in this document is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities or shares. This document should not

be used as the basis for any investment decision. Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Any

decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the appropriate prospectus and after seeking independent investment, tax and legal advice.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof.

Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by WisdomTree based on publicly available information. Although WisdomTree endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this

document, WisdomTree does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this document make no warranties or representation of any kind relating

to such data. Where WisdomTree has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective officers, directors, partners,

or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its contents.

This document may contain forward looking statements including statements regarding current expectations or beliefs with regards to the performance of certain assets classes and/or sectors. Forward looking statements

are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions. There can be no assurance that such statements will be accurate and actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements.

WisdomTree strongly recommends that you do not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements.

Any historical performance included in this document may be based on back testing. Back testing is the process of evaluating an investment strategy by applying it to historical data to simulate what the performance of

such strategy would have been. However, back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this document solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and

should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance.

Score based on unweighted sum of four fundamental/technical measures detailed below with each measure awarded a possible score of -1, 0, or 1

depending on whether variable is viewed as fundamentally negative, neutral or positive. Score ranging from -4 to +4. For commodities where data is not

available or not relevant, scores are calculated on remaining variables and adjusted to the -4 to +4 scale. The score matrix is designed to highlight

significant changes in key variables but should not be viewed as predictor of performance.

The four fundamental/technical measures are as follow:

- price vs. 200 days moving average: 1 when price is above 200dma and return is positive, -1 when price is below 200dma and return is negative, 0

otherwise

- % change in net positioning over the past month: 1 when % change is positive, -1 when % change is negative, 0 when no change

- % change in inventory level over the past 3 months: 1 when % is negative, -1 when % is positive, 0 when no change

- roll yield between the front and second month futures contracts: 1 when in backwardation, -1 when in contango, 0 when no change

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2019-09-17/oil-price-shock-could-be-followed-by-large-geopolitical-tremors

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2019-09-10/the-cloud-computing-megatrend-for-growth-amidst-uncertainty

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2019-09-03/faster-than-a-speeding-bullet

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2019-08-21/gold-could-rise-to-over-us-1800oz-if-geopolitical-risks-remain-elevated

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2019-08-12/the-gold-market-reigns-supreme

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2019-08-02/like-a-good-neighbour-the-fed-is-there

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2019-07-25/june-etp-flows-buy-the-rumour-sell-the-fact

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2019-07-23/ecb-a-stitch-in-time-saves-nine

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2019-07-16/how-wisdomtree-classifies-artificial-intelligence-companies-part-2

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2019-07-10/how-wisdomtree-classifies-artificial-intelligence-companies

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2019-07-08/40-years-of-fraught-us-iran-tension-in-the-persian-gulf-plays-on

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2019-07-03/platinums-turn-to-shine-in-2019

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2019-06-26/gold-above-us-1400-where-next

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/-/media/eu-media-files/other-documents/research/commodity-monthly-monitor/2019,-d-,08_commodity-monthly-monitor.pdf

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/-/media/eu-media-files/other-documents/research/commodity-monthly-monitor/2019,-d-,07_commodity-monthly-monitor.pdf

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/-/media/eu-media-files/other-documents/research/commodity-monthly-monitor/2019,-d-,06_commodity-monthly-monitor_final.pdf

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/-/media/eu-media-files/other-documents/research/commodity-monthly-monitor/2019,-d-,05_commodity-monthly-monitor-final.pdf

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/-/media/eu-media-files/other-documents/research/commodity-monthly-monitor/2019,-d-,04_commodity-monthly-monitor-final.pdf

https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0919.pdf

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf

http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/338.htm

http://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/MOMR_september_2015.pdf

http://omrpublic.iea.org/

·

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