commodity overview
TRANSCRIPT
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8/12/2019 Commodity Overview
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28/04/2014
Weekly Commodity Overview
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8/12/2019 Commodity Overview
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M a r k e t H i g h l i g h t sM a r k e t H i g h l i g h t s Monday, April 28, 2014
15:30 GMT
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AS IA -PACIFIC REGION
China HSBC lash manufacturing PMI signals contractionThe preliminary reading of the HSBC manufacturing PMI showed that manufacturing acvity in
China connued to contract in April. The HSBC manufacturing gauge came at 48.3 in April, in
line with esmates and slightly more than a Marchs nal gure of 48. A reading below 50
indicates contracon of the industry. The weakness of the manufacturing sector added to
concerns over the worlds second largest economy, following the ow of negave data on GDP
and industrial producon released in the preceding week.
EUROPE
European PMI numbers mixed; German business conidence gains Manufacturing acvity in the single currency zone remained unchanged in April, with ash
manufacturing PMI coming at 53.3, perfectly matching expectaons. At the same me,
separate states showed mixed picture. German manufacturing PMI outshone forecasts, while
French manufacturing gauge missed esmates in April. German PMI came at 54.2 versus
projecons of 53.9, whereas French PMI was at 50.9 compared to a forecast of 51.9.
Meanwhile, German business condence surprisingly rose this month. The Ifo business climate
index climbed to 111.2 in April from 110.7 in March; experts called for a small drop to 110.4.
NORTH AMERICA
U.S. data mostly negative but durable goods orders rise Housing market data in the U.S. was controversial. Exisng home sales slightly declined to 4.59
million units in March from 4.60 million in February, while experts predicted a larger decline to
4.57 million units. At the same me, new home sales disappointed investors, coming at 384,000
units that is smaller than 449,000 units in the preceding month and below market consensus of
455,000 units. Flash manufacturing numbers as well as jobless claims added to skepcism,
missing forecasts. Nevertheless, durable goods orders were on the posive side, gaining 2% in
March instead of adding only 0.6% as experts had projected.
Weekly Ranked Price Moves (%)Weekly Ranked Price Moves ( %)
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8/12/2019 Commodity Overview
3/13
Precious Metals Slump Mostly Higher amid Ukraine Turmoil Monday, April 28, 201415:30 GMT
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Goldclosed higher despite being in the downturn for the most of the week. Posive
data from the U.S. created the heaviest drag on the yellow metals prices by eroding
safe-haven demand and fuelling concerns that the Fed will end its smulus
programme sooner than expected. At the same me, on-going turmoil in Ukraine sll
was at a play to contain the decline. Riots in the eastern parts of Ukraine connued
last week and the chances of a prompt resoluon of the conict seemed negligent.
Meanwhile, support pertaining to solid demand in Asia started to fade on ideas that
India, the world second largest consumer of the bullion, may hold on its import
restricons amid depreciang naonal currency. However, the fall in imports by India
may be somehow compensated by increased buying acvity in China. The World Gold
Council expects Chinas gold purchases to rise up to 25% by 2017.
Silvermirrored gold moves, inching up 0.62%. The latest import data from India put
a heavy selling pressure on the grey metal. In January, the countrys net imports
totaled 28 metric tonnes that is a 12% monthly increase but at the same me a 77%
yearly drop. Since the end of 2013, the precious metal was underpinned by a record
Indias purchases that sent total silver imports for 2013 189% higher to 6,125 tonnes.
Platinum and Palladium were mixed amid signs of progress in resoluon of the
labour dispute in South Africa. Last week, three biggest planum producers started a
discussion with South Africas union ocials aer producers revised a pay oer.
However, skepcism was in place as a proposed rise in wages does not meet the union
demands. At the same me, palladium remained fundamentally stronger than its peer
thanks to stoking supply concerns stemming from the Russias and the West stando
over Ukraine. Russia is the worlds biggest palladium exporter.
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8/12/2019 Commodity Overview
4/13
Industrial Metals Mixed on Chinas Data, Supply Worries
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, Internaonal Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Aluminum lacked direcon last week as negave numbers from China were
outweighed by supply-side support. As reported earlier, top global producers, United
Co. Rusal and Alcoa, may connue reducing output at a me when the global market is
expected to swing to decit of 730,000 tonnes in 2014. United Co. Rusal, the biggest
producer, said its output has already dropped to an eight-month low in February, while
Alcoa, the third biggest miner, plans to cut output by 800,000 tonnes this year.
Copperwas on the rise unl Wednesday when it reversed its trend and erased some
of the prior gains. The reason behind this was a release of the preliminary Chinas PMI
data. HSBC ash manufacturing index showed contracon of the industry for the fourth
consecuve month in April. However, the red metals slide was restricted as slowing
manufacturing acvity of the worlds top manufacturer has not produced any negave
eect on the copper demand yet. According to the latest trade data, Chinas copper
imports rebounded last month. The country bought 420,000 tonnes of the base metal
in March versus 379,000 tonnes in February; imports were 31% up on yearly basis.
Nickel surged to a 14-month high as Russia, the top exporter, may become as subject
to new sancons from the West as fast resoluon of Ukrainian conict seems elusive.
Supply worries were further fuelled by the fact that Indonesia that accounted for circa
20% of global exports imposed a ban on ore exports in January this year. Nickel market
may swing to a decit in 2014, reported Sumitomo Metal Mining Co.
Zinclost support pertaining to falling LME inventories and unexpected decit on the
market last year. LME supplies dropped 1.87% during last week and stood almost 30%
lower than in the same period in 2013.
Monday, April 28, 2014
15:30 GMT
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8/12/2019 Commodity Overview
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Energy Futures Swing to Losses after EIA Data; Brent Gains on Ukraine
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WTI and Brent oil were mixed last week, with WTI retreang from mulple-week
highs. At the same me, Brent oil was more resilient than its U.S. peer, being bolstered
by the uncertainty over oil ports in Libya and unrest in Ukraine. In Libya, the largest
holder of oil reserves in Africa, an agreement to restart operaons at two oil ports that
were returned to the state by the rebels may collapse as payments envisaged by the
accord have not been received yet. Meanwhile, Ukraines state resumed an oensive
against protesters in the east thus escalang tensions with Russia, the worlds largest
energy exporter.
At the same me, the EIA data was negave for the energy futures for the second
consecuve week. U.S. stockpiles jumped 3.5 million barrels in the week ended April 18
aer skyrockeng 10 million barrels in the week ended April 11. Experts called for a 2.6-
million-barrel increase.
Natural gas was trading higher in the rst part of the week as updated weather
forecasts connued to point to the colder-than-normal weather in the central and
eastern regions of the U.S. Natural gas futures connued to gain even aer the EIA
report, showing that U.S. storage increased more than expected in the week ended
April 18. Natural gas inventories climbed 49 billion cubic feet versus a forecast of a
climb of 40 billion cubic feet. In the preceding week, stocks rose 24 billion cubic feet.
Heating oil plunged, following losses in WTI futures. The commodity also came under
addional pressure aer the weekly EIA report, indicang that U.S. supplies of disllate
fuel, which includes heang oil and diesel, climbed 600,000 barrels, defyingexpectaons of a decline of 900,000 barrels. However, below-normal temperatures in
the U.S. restricted the downturn in heang oil prices.
Monday, April 28, 2014
15:30 GMT
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8/12/2019 Commodity Overview
6/13
Agricultural Commodities Up on Slow U.S. Planting; Coffee Soars on Brazil
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Monday, April 28, 2014
15:30 GMT
Wheathalted its advancement in the beginning of the last week amid talks that long-
awaited rains would boost crops in the U.S., Europe and Russia. Another factor
represenng a parcular signicance was a release of the U.S. export data that failed to
meet expectaons last week. Moreover, a rally of more than 4% in the week ended April
18 prompted traders to take prots thus adding weigh on the wheat futures. However,
later in the week wheat managed to erase losses, being propped up by the lack of
improvement in the U.S. crop condions and on-going tensions in Ukraine.
Corn started the week on the negave note but the weakness was short-lived as
persistent turmoil in Ukraine coupled with solid U.S. exports that stood at 1.60 million
tonnes last week helped the commodity to swing to gains. The rally was also aributed
to the disappoinng USDA gures showing that U.S. seedings were only 6%, below the
average of 14% and expectaons of 10%. Weather also was on the posive side as rains
in the Midwest and Delta may slow down the planng further.
Soybeansposted the longest decline since July on worries that China, top consumer,
will reduce its imports. According to the Oil World, the pace of soybean buying by China
from the U.S. and South America is likely to slow down closer to the end of the season as
Chinas stockpiles are ample. Moreover, Chinese buyers experience problems in opening
leers of credits that also pressurizes the countrys buying acvity.
Coffeesoared to a 26-month high in the middle of the week as drought in Brazil, the top
producer, damaged crops. Volcafe Ltd. reduced its esmate of Brazilian crop by 18% to
28.4 million bags. Also sending coee futures higher, Volcafe Ltd. lied its forecast for a
decit in 2014/15 season to 11 million bags from 6.5 million bags esmated earlier and
warned of a potenal supply shortage in the following seasons as well.
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8/12/2019 Commodity Overview
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Monday, April 28, 2014
15:30 GMT
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, Internaonal Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Correlation Matrix
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8/12/2019 Commodity Overview
8/13
Precious Metals Confidence Intervals for the Next 7 Days
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, Internaonal Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Monday, April 28, 2014
15:30 GMT
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8/12/2019 Commodity Overview
9/13Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, Internaonal Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Monday, April 28, 2014
15:30 GMTIndustrial Metals Confidence Intervals for the Next 7 Days
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8/12/2019 Commodity Overview
10/13Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, Internaonal Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Monday, April 28, 201415:30 GMT
Energy Confidence Intervals for the Next 7 Days
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8/12/2019 Commodity Overview
11/13Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, Internaonal Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Monday, April 28, 2014
15:30 GMT
Agriculture Confidence Intervals for the Next 7 Days
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8/12/2019 Commodity Overview
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Commodies Gold -COMEX acve contracted (USD/t o.z.)
Silver -COMEX acve contract (USD/t o.z.)
Planum-New York Mercanle Exchange acve contract (USD/t o.z.)
Palladium -New York Mercanle Exchange acve contract (USD/t o.z.)
Aluminum-Acve contract of primary aluminum of minimum 99.2% purity at the
LME (USD/MT)
Copper Acve contact of electrolyc copper at the LME (USD/MT)
Zinc -Acve contract of zinc od minimum 99.995% purity at the LME (USD/MT)
Nickel Acve contract of nickel of 99.8% purity at the LME (USD/MT)
Crude oil- light, sweet crude oil acve contract on the New York Mercanle
Exchange (USD/bbl.)
Brent oil -Brent oil acve contract on the ICE Futures Europe (USD/bbl.)
Natural Gas -natural gas acve contract on the New York Mercanle Exchange
(USD/MMBtu)
Heang oil - heang oil acve contract on the New York Mercanle Exchange
(USD/gal.)
Wheat -wheat acve contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (cents/bu)
Corn -corn acve contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (cents/bu)
Coee - benchmark Arabica coee acve contract on the NYB -ICE Futures
Exchange
Soybeans -acve contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (cents/bu)
Indices S&P GSCI Precious Metals Total Return Index - commodity group subindex
composed of gold and silver; the index reects return on underlying commodity
futures price movement
S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Total Return Index - commodity group subindex
composed of futures contracts on aluminium, copper, lead, nickel and zinc
S&P GSCI Energy Total Return Index - commodity group subindex composed of
futures contracts on crude oil, Brent oil, RBOB gas, heang oil, gas oil and natural gas
S&P GSCI Agriculture Total Return Index -commodity group subindex composed of
futures contracts on wheat, red wheat, corn, soybeans, coon, sugar, coee and cocoa
Indicators
Long-term price forecasts-aggregated price forecasts based on predicons of 20
internaonal banks forecasts
USDA Wasde Total Esmated Inventories (Today)-current level of inventories of wheat in
1000 MT, corn in 1000 MT, soybeans in million bushels and green coee in 1000 bags
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, Internaonal Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
EXPLANATIONS
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8/12/2019 Commodity Overview
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