commodity risk management - irish co-operative ... · commodity risk management •education...
TRANSCRIPT
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Commodity Risk Management
Dairy Risk Management Overview
CIT September, 2012
Commodity Risk Management
International Assets Holding Corporation | www.intlassets.com | www.fcstone.com | www.downesoneill.com
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Commodity Risk Management
Agenda • Introduction Liam Fenton
• Brief overview of INTL FCStone
• How the market has developed in the US
• How it is developing in Europe
• Issue’s with Development in Europe
• Basic Theory of hedging
• How companies are utilising it today
• How Farmers can benefit from this market’s development
• Does the Dairy Industry need hedging
• Approximate Cost’s
• Next Steps
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Commodity Risk Management
Liam Fenton • Born and raised on a dairy Farm in Co
Limerick
• Bank of Ireland
• Set up my own company
• Traded on futures markets in NY/
Chicago/London/Dublin
• Established FCStone Europe office in 2008
Charlie Hyland
John Lancaster
• Still milk Cows on Family Farm!
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Commodity Risk Management
Global Presence
30 offices | 1000+ employees | 20,000 customers in more than 100 countries
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Commodity Risk Management
INTL FCStone Dairy • NASDAQ Listed/Fortune 500 Company
• Began as Co-op in Risk Management
• Purchased the No1 Dairy Risk manager in US – in 2007
• Involved in US Dairy markets since their inception 20 years ago
• Leading International Dairy Economists on staff
- Bill Brooks
• Participant in much of the CME product development
• First clearing member of the NZX
• Leading futures/option brokerage firm in Milk/Butter/Powders/Whey Product
• Establishment of the Cash Settled butter market
• Research and Development of European Dairy risk management tools part
financed by the IDA
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Commodity Risk Management
Volatility
Causes
Solution
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Commodity Risk Management
How The Market Developed in US
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Commodity Risk Management
Volatility-What causes it at the
moment?
• Not Speculators – Too small
Cause
• Decreasing Intervention levels and Quota
changes
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Commodity Risk Management
Speculators in the US Market Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 24, 2012 : Reportable Positions : :------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Producer/Merchant : : : : : Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables : : Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading : ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MILK, Class III - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) : CFTC Code #052641 Open Interest is 51,939 : : Positions : : 27,965 23,648 0 1,797 41 1,497 41 31 5,232 3,323 11,349 : : : : Changes from: January 17, 2012 : : 1,396 405 0 78 -3 -968 -136 -6 167 -250 311 : : : : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader : : 53.8 45.5 0.0 3.5 0.1 2.9 0.1 0.1 10.1 6.4 21.9 : : : : Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 77 : : 35 32 0 . . . . . 10 17 18
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Commodity Risk Management
Class III Milk Price
$8.00
$9.00
$10.00
$11.00
$12.00
$13.00
$14.00
$15.00
$16.00
$17.00
$18.00
$19.00
$20.00
$21.00
$22.00
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
$/c
wt.
Class III Support
Reduction of price supports in the US market resulted in increased
volatility
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Commodity Risk Management
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Commodity Risk Management
Example of one Companies
solution we have in the US
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Commodity Risk Management
$6
$7
$8
$9
$10
$11
$12
$13
$14
$15
$16
$17
$18
$19
$20
$21
$22
$23
$24
Jan-
00A
pr-0
0Ju
l-00
Oct
-00
Jan-
01A
pr-0
1Ju
l-01
Oct
-01
Jan-
02A
pr-0
2Ju
l-02
Oct
-02
Jan-
03A
pr-0
3Ju
l-03
Oct
-03
Jan-
04A
pr-0
4Ju
l-04
Oct
-04
Jan-
05A
pr-0
5Ju
l-05
Oct
-05
Jan-
06A
pr-0
6Ju
l-06
Oct
-06
Jan-
07A
pr-0
7Ju
l-07
Oct
-07
Jan-
08A
pr-0
8Ju
l-08
Oct
-08
Jan-
09A
pr-0
9Ju
l-09
Oct
-09
Jan-
10A
pr-1
0Ju
l-10
Oct
-10
Jan-
11A
pr-1
1Ju
l-11
Oct
-11
Dol
lars
per
cw
t.
Weighted Average Contract Prices vs. Announced Class III PricesJanuary 2000 through December 2011 - Contract Ranges Reflected
Weighted Average Value - $13.73 vs. Class III Average - $13.80
Weighted Average Contract Price Announced Class III Price Contract Range (High & Low)
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Commodity Risk Management
How Does this program work? Farmer phones Co-op
Asks for a price on future production
Co-op contacts FCStone (FCS)
FCS refer to market & return price to Co-op
Farmer then decides if he wishes to sell
forward
Co-op relays order or otherwise to FCS
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Commodity Risk Management
Advantages
• Farmer has certainty as to price of future
production or percentage of production
• Farmers Bank is happier/Easier to raise
finance
• Co-Op secures future supply of milk
• Co-Op does not have risk of fixing its price
• Co-Op can then offer fixed pricing to
Customers and ensure margin
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Commodity Risk Management
But its not about best Price its
MARGIN!!!
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Commodity Risk Management
How is it developing in Europe?
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Commodity Risk Management
Futures Markets (In alphabetical order)
• Eurex – EU Butter (Financially Settled)
– EU SMP (Financially Settled)
• NYSE Liffe – EU SMP (Physically Settled)
– Butter and Whey to Follow
• NZX (New Zealand) – WMP
– AMF
– SMP
• CME (US Market) – Non-Fat Dry Contract
– Class III / Butter / Cheese etc.
OTC Markets
• Flexible Contracts
Markets and Contracts
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Commodity Risk Management
What’s been hedged last year?
• 20,000 Tonnes of Product
Butter/SMP/Cheese
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Commodity Risk Management
Main Participants
• Consumers
• Traders
Less Involved
• Producers
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Commodity Risk Management
Issues with Development in Europe?
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Commodity Risk Management
• Education
• Education
• Education
• Independent/Reliable Data
• Still industry dependency mentality on
European Intervention
• Farmer Access/Natural sell side
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Commodity Risk Management
Basic Theory of hedging
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Commodity Risk Management
• Hedging is used to manage the effects of price
volatility on businesses
• Hedging typically utilises financial markets to offset
risks faced in your physical purchases and/or sales
Hedging Theory
Cash Market Losses (Gains)
=
Futures Contract Gains (Losses)
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Commodity Risk Management
€ € € €
Very basic theory – simple scenario
You buy inventory….at a cost
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Commodity Risk Management
€ € € € € €
Very basic theory – industry business model
The market rises – you gain
Profit
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Commodity Risk Management
€ €
The market falls– you loose
Loss
Very basic theory – industry business model
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Commodity Risk Management
€ €
Using futures - its an offset To protect against this particular risk you would sell a futures
Buy inventory Sell
futures
€ €
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Commodity Risk Management
€ €
Very basic theory – its an offset To protect against this particular risk you would sell a futures
Inventory value loss
Futures
value
gain
€ € € €
Margin
locked in
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Commodity Risk Management
€ € € €
Very basic theory – its an offset To protect against this particular risk you would sell a futures
Inventory value gain
Futures
value
loss
€ €
Margin
locked in
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Commodity Risk Management
Manufacturer Fixing price of Raw Materials when making
sales contracts
SELL
BUY
Gain/Loss
Net Gain / Loss
Cash/Physical
Futures
1 2
2 1
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Commodity Risk Management
Hedge Example - Increasing Markets
SELL
BUY
Gain/Loss
- 300 Eur
+ 300 Eur
Cash/Physical
Futures
1 3200 Eur
2 3500 Eur
1 3200 Eur
2 3500 Eur
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Commodity Risk Management
Hedge Example - Decreasing Markets
SELL
BUY
Gain/Loss
+ 300 Eur
- 300 Eur
Cash/Physical
Futures
1
1 2
2 1 3200 Eur
2 2900 Eur
1 3200 Eur
2 2900 Eur
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Commodity Risk Management
How are companies ultilising it today?
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Commodity Risk Management
• Do new/trades for longer period of time
and improving margin
• Protect Co-op producers from time lag risk
• Protection of Inventory
• Stability of pricing
• Gain new Customers
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Commodity Risk Management
How Farmers can benefit from these
market developments?
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Commodity Risk Management
Benefits for Farmers
• Allows Certainty
• Allows financial planning
• Allows him to sleep at night!
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Commodity Risk Management
Does Dairy Industry Need it?
• Intervention & Quotas return NO
• Intervention Goes YES
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Commodity Risk Management
Does Dairy Industry Need it?
Growth of demand for product
• Dairy is in competition with other products
who have these tools
• One Commodity by 2050 that supply is an
issue
• Industry to make most of Capital
Investment
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Commodity Risk Management
Approximate Cost
Commission
.1% (1/10 of a Percentage) of the value of
milk at current prices
Cost of Capital
2%-5% of the Nominal value of product
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Commodity Risk Management
• Not Enough Liquidity
– Liquidity is improving and will likely continue to do so as market
volatility increases
• Quotations not a Good Reflection of Physical Market
– Basis does have to be actively managed
– Correlations are strong with most physical markets
• Futures Will Attract Speculators to the Dairy Market
– Unlikely in the medium term – not big influence in the US
– Speculators would bring liquidity
Common Dairy Risk Management Criticisms
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Commodity Risk Management
Idea on an Action Plan
• Dairy Industry take charge of its self again
• Move away from Brussels
• No more stagnant industry of 80’s and
90’s
• Take advantage of our natural resource
• Work together
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Commodity Risk Management
What Europe/Government can provide
• Education
Co-op producers ICOS/Third Level Colleges
Farmers TEAGASC
• Risk Management Costs
Leverage European money for margin ICOS/IFA Lobby
Subsidise/Support margin hedges Mexican Govt program-
AIB/BOI/Rabobank
• Marketing
Irish product as price manageable Bord Bia
Ireland as a location for Consumers Enterprise Ireland
• Data Provide Industry Data/Indices Department of Agriculture
• Form working group today and meet next week!
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Commodity Risk Management
What INTLFC Stone Can Provide
Monthly FORWARD CONTRACTING PROGRAM for Co-Op
• Educate Cooperatives/Producers
– Risk Management
– Establish Forward Contracting Program
• Provide Software for recording forward contracting
• Provide daily real time reporting of net position
• Legal and regulated access to exchange traded products and
OTCs
• Design of Indices and market pricing
• Provide Industry market forecasts and analysis ie Econometric
models etc
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Commodity Risk Management
What INTLFC Stone Can Provide
Monthly FORWARD CONTRACTING PROGRAM for Co-Op
• We can work with Individual companies/Group of companies or the
Industry
• Paid
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Commodity Risk Management
Thank You!
Charlie Hyland /Liam Fenton/John Lancaster
Commodity Risk Managers
FCStone Commodity Services (Europe) Ltd
Tel: +353 1 6349140
Mob: +353 872888571
www.intlfcstone.com