communicating forecasts: linguistic and cultural considerations karen pennesi ph.d. candidate...
TRANSCRIPT
Communicating Forecasts: Linguistic
and Cultural Considerations
Karen PennesiPh.D. candidate
University of Arizona
Ceará Context
• Semi-arid climate• Most rain from Feb.
to May• Pop. 7.5 million• 85% of rural pop.
is poor• Mostly rain fed
subsistence agriculture• Drought every 7-10 yrs.
FUNCEME• FUNCEME = Ceará Foundation for
Meteorology and Hydrological Resources• Produces seasonal climate forecast
expressed as a probability• Official forecast is the result of consensus
among international researchers
Rain Prophets• older farmers• predictions based on observations of insects,
animals, birds, plants, winds, stars, clouds, and other phenomena in nature
Project Goal and Methodology
• Why do people criticize meteorologists and rain prophets?
• 14 months of fieldwork in Ceará, Brazil• Recorded interviews, focus group
discussions, annual meetings of the rain prophets
• Administered survey to 189 farmers in 3 regions of Ceará
What Farmers Expect From a Prediction
Optimism; only indirect references to drought
A high level of accuracy in specifying:– when it will rain– how much rain will fall– where it will rain
FUNCEME’s Meteorological Forecasts
• 80% accuracy rate • probability that the total rainfall for
a region will be dry, normal or wet• No forecast of harvest
Predictions Made by Rain Prophets
• Use terms and references meaningful to farmers
• Framed optimistically to encourage planting and give hope
• Grounded in religion
1) Look for multiple definitions of key terms
• The same word with different meanings leads to miscommunication
• Distinctions salient to one group may be meaningless to another
“Below the historical average”
What is the average rainfall here?- 10% correct- 58% did not know- 32% gave incorrect answers
Interpretations of seasonal forecast: “below average rainfall”
- 47% had no understanding at all- 46% said: drought; very little rain;
insufficient rain for agriculture
2) Non-scientific usages are legitimate too
• What is the motivation to learn scientific concepts and to adopt scientific approaches?
• Without motivation and perceived benefits, new concepts and changes in thinking are resisted.
• Traditional alternatives can be effective.
3) Public education versus “translation”
• How much do people need to understand to be properly informed?
• Can new formats be created through collaboration?
4) Explain limitations.Be relevant.
• Some questions cannot be answered with available technology and resources.
• Interpretations are shaped by expectations and needs.
5) Consider the format and content of the
presentation within the cultural context.
• What do people expect from forecasts?• What value do forecasts have to them?• Which communication styles are
preferred?• Which media are most effective?
Conclusion: Improving Science Communications
• What questions do people want answered?• What type of information do they want?• What formats are most appropriate?• How is the information “used” aside from
decision-making?