Community Climate Adaptation Planning

Durham Region’s Emergent Approach

Brian Kelly, Manager of Sustainability, Region of Durham Upwind-Downwind Conference 2014February 24, 2014

Outline

1. Background and Context.

2. CCAP Process

3. Climate Projections by SENES Consultants

4. An Emergent Process

5. Next steps

Objectives:

• To outline Durham Region’s emerging approach to Community Climate Adaptation planning

• To contrast our approach to that of others

• To offer learnings from our experiences to date

DRRCC Goal: “To position the Region of Durham as a leader in addressing climate change issues by preparing and recommending a comprehensive strategy with detailed actions that can be undertaken across the Region to address climate change.”DRRCC Mandate: “ outreach/advocacy: encouraging [stakeholders]to address climate change in their respective practices and operations”Adaptation Sub-Committee mandate is to identify: projected future climate & weather conditions; key vulnerabilities, impacts & management strategies to safeguard infrastructure; economic impacts (and opportunities); how a more resilient region can attract new business.

DRRCC Mandate

Local Action Plan Process

Background: LAP Phase 1 Report• Vision: “Durham Region is a carbon neutral,

sustainable, prosperous and resilient community with a high quality of life.”

• Community Targets: 5% reduction in GHG emissions by 201520% reduction in GHG emissions by 202080% reduction in GHG emissions by 2050

(absolute targets, measured against 2007 baseline emissions)

• Developed during 2010 based on stakeholder input over summer

• Adopted by Regional Council on March 9, 2011

Phase 2 Progress Report• Resulted from Design Charette• Progress Report released July 29/11 • Identified 23 Action Plan Concepts

(APCs)• Stakeholder and public review for 60

days• Consolidated to 17 APCs + an 18th

education APC• Presentations to business

stakeholders over fall of 2011• Early approval of Durham Partners in

Project Green (DPPG) – Dec. 14/11

Community Local Action Plan• Rationale for Local Action• Context and Background:

– Emissions Inventory– Vision– Mission– Targets– Process

• 18 Potential Programs (one approved to date)

• Impacts and Co-Benefits• Implementation Strategies• Adaptation• Next Steps

Potential Programs in the LAP• Durham Partners in Project

Green*• Comprehensive Residential

Retrofit• Green Affordable Housing• Durham Green Building

Guideline• Smart Grid Initiative*• Offshore Wind Power

Generation• Durham Mini-Deep Lake Water

Cooling• Durham Biofuels Program

• Bio-Methane Production and Use

• Local Food Hub• Urban Agriculture Program• Farm-Friendly Regulations• Durham Five Million Trees• Active Transportation and

Transit*• Durham Freecycle Program• Durham Green Procurement

Guideline• Community Climate Fund• Climate Education Program

DO THE MATH

• 2°C : The maximum global rise in average temperature that still gives us a 50% probability of avoiding climate destabilization Pre-industrial base: 280 ppm of CO2

Now: +0.8°C = 396 ppm By 2030: +2°C = 450 ppm … 16 years left By 2100: +4-6°C = 750-1,200 ppm

• 565 gigatons: CO2 we can add before we reach 450 ppm.

• 2,795 gigatons: CO2 in proven fossil fuel reserves. 5 X what we can add Therefore 80% of the proven reserves must stay in the ground; “stranded asset” risk for fossil fuel companies.

350.org http://math.350.org/

• Climate mitigation is protecting nature from us; climate adaptation is protecting us from nature.

• The goal of adaptation is to prepare, protect and safeguard us and our infrastructure.

• Some adaptation measures can be both adaptation and mitigation (e.g. tree planting, white roofs, green roofs).

• No cynicism allowed (as in: “Well, I won’t be around for that…..”)

What is Climate Adaptation?

Options:

1. Follow the ICLEI Process

2. Follow the Toronto process (e.g. WeatherWise Partnership)

3. Develop a hybrid process for Durham

Our motto: “Imitation is the highest form of flattery.”

Adaptation Planning Process

ICLEI Adaptation Process

• Future Climate Parameters (SENES Study) : What are the climate conditions we are planning for?

• Stakeholder Engagement: Who are the key stakeholders and what are their initial thoughts?

• Expert Task Forces (Feb, March & April): What are the vulnerabilities, risks and responsive actions?

• Design Charette (May): How do the various streams integrate into one plan with proposed programs?

• Proposed CCAP (DRRCC, Sept. 12)

• Recommended CCAP (Regional Council, Oct. 8/14) What is the plan and the proposed programs?

CCAP Process

SENES Consultants was commissioned to project future climate and extremes for Durham region (based on extensive study done for Toronto in 2011)

Remember our motto: “Imitation is the highest form of flattery.”

Basis for confidence in projections include:The model is based on established scientific principals. Model is able to reproduce observed changes in climate.The model resolution is very high (1 km x 1 km cells).The model projects both averages and extremes.

Future Climate Projections

Report of climate and extreme weather projections for timeframe 2040-2049 compared to 2000-2009.Model provides projections not predictions (consistent with IPCC) – because it is not possible to know what future emissions of GHG will actually be.Model based on IPCC emissions scenario A1B.

The scope of the SENES study is: all eight local municipalities in the Region of Durham: Ajax, Brock (Beaverton), Clarington (Bowmanville), Oshawa, Pickering, Scugog (Port Perry), Uxbridge (Town of Uxbridge), Whitby

parameters of temperature & precipitation with surrogates for lightning and combined parameters for tornadoes.

both climate means and weather extremes were included.

Projections Model (SENES)

The following summarizes the projected climate changes for the proxy Whitby site for the future period compared with the base period:

Less snow and more rain in winter - about 16% more precipitation (snow and rainfall) overall.50% increase in one day maximum rainfall

40% decline in one day maximum snow

100% increase in number of days of rain greater than 25 mm

80% reduction in the number of days with snow more than 5 cm

146% more rain and 61% less snow in January

217% more rain and 75% less snow in February

Rainstorm events will be more extreme 15% increase in the potential for violent storms

53% increase in the potential for tornadoes

74% more rain in July

79% more rain in August

Future Period: 2040-2049 Compared to 2000-2009

average annual temperatures increase of 4.0oC average winter temperatures increase by 5.8oC average summer temperatures increase by 2.6oC extreme daily minimum temperature "becomes less cold"

by 12oC extreme daily maximum temperature "becomes warmer"

by 7.1oC

Temperature Changes - Whitby

Higher temperatures in summer (2000 - 2009 to 2040 -2049) tmax >30°C: 3 days/year to 16.8 days/year, greatest increase

Uxbridge, Port Perry and Beaverton 4.8 days to 25.8 days) T max >35°C: 0 days/year to 1-4 days/year Tmax > 40°C: 0 days/year, to 0.14 days/year

More frequent heat waves (2000-2009 to 2040-2049) > 30°C more than 2 days : 0.025 events/year to 3.9

events/year (greatest increase in Uxbridge, Port Perry and Beaverton of average 7.5 events/year)

> 40°C more than 2 days : 0 events/year 2000-2009 to 0.1 events/year 2040-2049 (Uxbridge only 0.1 average)

Humidex > than 40°C eq. (great discomfort) projected increase from

3 to 17 events/year. greater than ‘dangerous’ level (45°C eq.) - 0 to 3.2

events/year (greatest potential being in Uxbridge, Port Perry, Beaverton).

Heat & Humidity – Duration and Frequency

Less snow and more rain.

Rain storm events more frequent and severe (Whitby 15% increase in potential for violent storms).

Increase number of days of heavy rain (>50mm in 6 hours with temp > 1°C) from 1.5 events/year 2000-2009 to 5.3 events/year 2040-2049 (with the greatest increase occurring in Port Perry 0.9 /year to 9 /year).

Ice storms not frequent today and in 2040-49 projected to drop to almost zero.

Projected 45% increase in days with high potential for lightning - across Durham.

High Level Summary of Climate Projections Precipitation

Increased potential for tornadoes 53% increase in Whitby (days/10 years) – EHI >=1; 150 to 172 days; EHI >=2; 37 to 54 days,

EHI >=3; 9 to 16 days; EHI >=4; 3 to 5 days; EHI >=5; 0 to 4 days) 23% increase across Durham – Uxbridge, Port Perry, and Beaverton continuing to be most

susceptible EHI of 1 represents supercell potential; 1-5 represents F2/F3 potential, EHI of 5+ represents

F4/5 potential (Goderich was an F3);

High Level Summary of Climate Projections - Tornadoes

The Saturn Model of Stakeholders

• All municipalities (with exception of Brock Township)

• All five Conservation Authorities• Chambers of Commerce and Boards of Trade• Electrical distribution utilities• Others

• To come: DEAC, DAAC, local councils

Stakeholder Meetings to Date

Expert Task Forces

Proposed Task Forces• Flooding• Heat Events• Electricity Supply• Transportation/Roads• Natural Environment*• Buildings*• Telecom (on hold)• Food Supply (on hold)

Proposed Schedule• Joint kickoff meeting –

Feb. 21• Task Forces to meet

March, April & May• Design Charette – Late

May

• Community plan in a 2-tier regional municipality• Compressed schedule (1 year)• Started with Climate Projections (SENES study)• Then engaged stakeholders using projections• Create Expert Task Forces among stakeholders• Ask stakeholders to identify the implications and

possible responses• Integrate Task Force streams in a Design Charette• Take a “plan” to this Council Watch this space!

The Durham Differences

Questions and Discussion