10/10/2014

1

COMPACT URBAN GROWTHThe case of the London Metropolitan Region

Urban Vision Leader’s Study LondonLondon, 09 September 2014

Philipp Rode, LSE Cities / Urban Age ProgrammeLondon School of Economics and Political Science

GREATER LONDONGreater London: 8.0 millionDriver of UK economy: £361bn yearLondon GDP = Saudi Arabia

LONDON METROPOLITAN REGION19m population

GREATER LONDON POPULATION 1961-2011Source: Census 2011

EMPLOYMENT IN LONDON BY SECTOR 1971-2007Source: Experian Business Strategy

HOUSEHOLD TYPE TRENDS IN LONDON

• Significant changes of households types and size

• More young people, especially from Europe

• Moving out: older workers, retired people and young families

• More people from ethnic minorities

NEW YORK SHANGHAI

RESIDENTIAL DENSITIES PER SQKM

SÃO PAULO ISTANBUL

MUMBAI

LONDON

10/10/2014

2

RESIDENTIAL DENSITY AND URBAN FORM

high densities in South East England

RESIDENTIAL DENSITY AND URBAN FORMRESIDENTIAL DENSITY AND URBAN FORM

average densities in South East England

LONDON DENSITIES

27,100Max. residential density [pers./sqkm]

173,372Max. emplyment density [pers./sqkm]

WORKPLACE DENSITY AND URBAN FORM

high densities in South East England

EMPLOYMENT DENSITIES

all jobs accounting

legal servicesbroking and fund management

Source: Annual Business Inquiry 2007RAIL SYSTEM LONDON

408 kmUnderground network

1,393 kmRegional rail network (within 70 by 70 km area)

10/10/2014

3

LONDON MODAL SPLIT OF DAILY JOURNEY STAGES - 2012Source: TfL 2013

INTERVENTION

GREEN BELT LEGISLATION SINCE 1947 DISJOINTED INCREMENTALISM

THE BRITISH PLANNING SYSTEMThe 1947 Town and Country Planning Act stipulates that plan and planning permission remain essentially separate

INCREMENTALISM AND THE NEOLIBERAL TURN

• Hands-off approach relying on the effectiveness of the private sector

• Development corporations rather than planning agencies

• Entrepreneurship and development instead of regulations and planning

• Mega projects and public private partnerships instead of land use plans

• Projects instead of Plans

10/10/2014

4

STRATEGIC PLANNING SINCE 2000 LONDON GOVERNANCE – SPATIAL PLANNING 1980-2010

THE LONDON PLAN

1. Required by law through the Greater London Authority Act 19992. Prepared by the Greater London Authority under the Mayor of London3. Statutory mayoral strategy mandatory for the GLA family4. Acts as guidance for borough level planning, as such not legally binding

STRATEGIC OPEN SPACES IN LONDONSource: GLA 2004

“growth can only be accommodated without encroaching on open spaces if development takes place more intensively, leading to higher densities and plot ratios on existing brownfield sites.”

PUBLIC TRANSPORT ACCESSIBILITY LEVELS (PTAL)

“the future scale and phasing of development should be integrated with the capacity of the public transport system and accessibility of different locations”

INDEX OF MULTIPLE DEPRIVATION

“clear spatial priorities are needed. Areas of London that havenot benefited from recent development – notably in parts of the east –should be prioritised for future development”

10/10/2014

5

LONDON PLAN - ‘COMPACT CITY’ POLICY OBJECTIVES

• To accommodate London’s growth within its boundaries without encroaching on open spaces

• To improve London’s accessibility

• Mixed use development• Integrating transport and

development• Matching development to

transport capacity

• Allocation of street space in favour of movement of people and goods

• Local transport and public realm enhancements

• Improving conditions for walking

• Improving conditions for cycling • parking policies that encourage

access by sustainable means of transport,

• Design principles for a compact city

LOCAL DEVELOPMENT FRAMEWORK AND PLANNING PERMISSION

1. Local development frameworks borough level responsibility2. Incremental, iterative process of granting planning permission OUTCOMES

COMMUTING FLOWS – GREEN BELT ‘JUMPING’

10/10/2014

6

LONDON NEW DEVELOPMENT AND TRANSPORT 2004-2011 LONDON NEW DEVELOPMENT AND PROXIMITY TO TRANSIT

Urb

an d

evel

opm

ent 2

004-

2011

(mill

ions

sqm

)

4

3

2

1

0500m 1km 2km >2km

housing

retail & leisure

office

DENSITY CHANGES

10/10/2014

7

CHANGING MODE SHARESource: TfL 2013

ROAD TRAFFIC TRENDS IN LONDONSource: TfL 2012

CYCLING TRENDS IN LONDON

NYC

Com

mut

er c

ycle

in

dica

tor

300

200

100

20101990

New York

2000

100

50

150

Berlin

20101990

Rela

tive

chan

ge in

bic

ycle

us

e (2

001=

100%

)

2000

20

20101990

10

Num

ber o

f trip

s to

cen

tral

Lon

don

durin

g m

orni

ng

peak

by

bicy

cle

(Tho

usan

ds)

2000120

80

160

200

20101990

Copenhagen

Num

ber o

f trip

s to

-from

inne

r ci

ty o

n w

eekd

ays

by b

icyc

le

(Tho

usan

ds)

2000

LONDON URBAN CYCLING TRENDS

10/10/2014

8

Zero Car Households Population

2001

Zero Car Households Population

2011

Zero Car Households

% 2001

Zero Car Households

% 2011

Zero Car Households % Change

Inner London 1,312,647 1,464,862 49.9 55.7 +5.8

Outer London 1,703,350 1,801,311 27.9 30.0 +2.1

London Total 3,015,997 3,266,173 37.5 41.6 +4.1

1.1 Socioeconomic Change and Peak TravelLONDON: ZERO CAR HOUSHOLDSSource: TfL 2011

DEBATE

UNPACKING THE LONDON COMPACT CITY DEBATE

1. Terminology• Compact city model and policy vs. currently denser cities, current apartment

living, current public transport systems etc.

• Compact residential vs workplace developments vs mixed use

2. Evidence-based argumentation• Plus: energy and carbon efficiency, public transport, walking & cycling

• Minus: urban heat island, privacy

3. Normative argumentation• What people really want …

• Let the market decide …

4. Problematic compact city policy instruments• ‘Second-best’ planning instruments (non-market instruments)• Shape of green belts

THE COMPACT CITY MODEL

• Generic spatial interpretation of ‘sustainable city’

• Umbrella term for ‘European city model’, ‘transit oriented development’, ‘new urbanism’, ‘decentralised concentration’ and ‘smart growth’.

• Reinforcing city access based on proximity: reducing the need to travel and allow for shift towards public transport and non-motorised modes.

• New realism in transport, moving away from ‘predict-and-provide’

com

pact

di

sper

sed

CONSENSUS: SHIFT TOWARDS PUBLIC AND NON MOTORISED TRANSPORT

© Peter Banyard 2010

10/10/2014

9

THE MOTORWAY BOX SPATIAL PLANNING & TRANSPORT DEMAND MANAGEMENT

LONDON PLAN – AN ASSESSMENT

Positive• Commitment to a clear vision• Communication effort• Transport agency backing

• Site specific endorsements• Strategic alliance with national policy• Frequent updating

Shortcomings• Missing regional integration• Funding gaps compromising key

projects• Absence of binding land use standards• Little impact on Thames Gateway• Reverse planning sequence for

transport and land use

CONTROVERSY: HOUSING SUPPLY

THE COST OF COMPACTION? HOUSE PRICES 1970-2008 (2002=100)Source: UK Government

ANNUAL SUPPLY OF NEW HOMES 1970 to 2008Source: GLA Economics 2009

10/10/2014

10

LONDON BROWNFIELD SITES (2010)

LONDON COMPACT CITY POLICY: PLANNING CLOSE TO OR WITH THE MARKET