company report| guinness nigeria plc.meristem.com.ng/uploads/files/equity research report...1 | p a...

Company Report | Guinness Nigeria Plc.

…What the heck is wrong with GUINNESS?

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Breweries I Company Report I November 2014

Equity Research | www.meristemng.com | Nov. 2014

0.50

0.70

0.90

1.10

1.30

1.50

1.70

Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14

GUINNESS NB INTBREW NSEASI

Analyst: Wale Olusi [email protected]

Target Price: N139.66

Rating: SELL

Relative Metrics

Current price 160.00

P/E 25.90

P/B 5.18

Forward P/E 26.73x

52-Wk av. Vol (mn) 0.475

Fundamental Metrics

EPS (N) 6.19

BVPS(N) 30.91

Net Margin 7.05%

ROAE 20.34%

ROAA 7.00% Leverage 2.88

Mkt. Cap (N’bn) 240.94

Key Price Metrics

Today Return -0.01%

WtD Return -0.37%

MtD Return -0.93%

QtD Return -25.57%

YtD Return -32.20

52-Week Return -31.33

52-Week High 262.00

52-Week Low 160.00

Year High 239.95

Year Low 160.00

Beta 0.97

14D-RSI 35.30

Guinness Nig. Plc (GUINNESS) posted yet another disappointing quarterly result (2015:Q1),

as revenue shrank once again by 6.07% (NGN21.05bn vs.NGN22.41bn in the corresponding

period last year). Although we anticipated that the beer maker’s recent drive into the value

segment (given the launch and subsequent market acceptance of the ‘Orijin’ brand) should

support performance going forward, the company’s recently released 3 months result

indicated otherwise. The disappointing performance scorecard is coming just after the beer

maker announced that Mr. John O'Keeffe will be taking over the headship of the company

from Mr. Seni Adetu in November 2014.

Cost of sales declined 12.15% to NGN10.50bn (vs. 11.95bn in 2014Q1) thereby trimming

down cost to sales margin to 49.89% from 53.33% in prior period. OPEX fell slightly by 1.34%

while operating profit improved by 7.84% (NGN2.71bn vs. NGN2.51bn) in the quarter.

Finance charges, which rose 31.59% (NGN1.18bn vs. NGN2.51bn), remained a drag to

earnings.

Although, Profit before tax (PBT) improved reasonably by 5.06%, profit after tax (PAT)

contracted by 14.81%, due to higher tax expenses, slimming down to NGN1.49bn compared

to NGN1.74bn in prior period.

Our analysis of Beer market trends in Nigeria linked this sustained performance drags to

extreme rivalry in the sector, likely market cannibalism, slowing premium brands growth

and sustained soft discretionary spending.

Updating our model in the realities of the above and adopting a blend of absolute and

relative valuation models, we downgrade our 12months target price for GUINNESS to

NGN139.66 (from previous NGN194.29), implying a 12.71% downside to current market

price of NGN160. Hence, our rating on GUINNESS is downgraded to a SELL.

Source: NSE

Revenue slid 6.1% again... what’s the hype about ‘Orijin’?

52-Weeks Rebased Price Trajectory of Key Breweries Sector Stocks vs. NSEASI

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1.0 Recent Developments

What is wrong with GUINNESS?

GUINNESS is the second largest brewer in Nigeria listed on the Nigerian Stock

Exchange in 1965. The company’s operating history in the Nigerian Beer market

is over 5-decades. Over the years, the premium GUINNESS stout producer has

recorded impressive sales and distribution of its Guinness Stout and Harp Lager

beer brands in the Nigerian market, thus making Nigeria the largest market for

Guinness Stout in the world by Net Sales Value.

As against the above, GUINNESS’ recent number is fraught by performance drags.

Revenue has sustained consistent declines (-3.03%, -5.41%, -13.34%, -11.40%, -

10.83% and -6.05%) from Q4:2013 to Q1:2015 even as profit after tax continues

to bleed (dipped 3.53%, 22.16% 22.14%, 19.30% and 14.81% from Q1:2014 to

Q1:2015 in a row) due to higher financial charges, operating expenses and cost

disadvantages compared to major competitors.

Market survey suggests that a number of factors accounted for this sustained

lackluster performance. We highlight our findings below.

1. A More Complex and Competitive Operating Environment: Competition in

the Nigerian beer market is very keen at the moment. By our estimation,

HEINEKEN via its stake in Nigerian Breweries (NB), Consolidated Breweries

(CONSBREW) and Champion Breweries Plc. (CHAMPION) controls more than

70% of the space. GUINNESS has 26% market share while International

Breweries Plc. (INTBREW), controls 4%. But the ‘tug of war’ is between NB

and GUINNESS. NB (61% market share) is by far the market leader in the

space enjoying the best cost advantage, widest distribution network

(c.525,000 retail outlets) and brewing plants spread all over Nigeria. As a

result, NB has sustained a better Quarter on Quarter (Q-o-Q) performance

compared to GUINNESS.

2. The Consumer Rights Advocacy Network of Nigeria (CRANN) accused a

Dominant Brewery of Pirate Marketing: The rivalry in the space recently

brought about an alleged “De-marketing” of GUINNESS brands by a major

Brewery. Other terms used in some quarters include “Guerilla or Pirate-

marketing”. According to CRANN, distributors and bar owners are being

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offered incentives to de-stock GUINNESS brands in Lagos, Port Harcourt,

Abuja, and Ibadan, and this has been ongoing for a while (more than a year).

As against the above, we see this as a likely incentive-based marketing

strategy on the part of the said ‘Dominant Brewery’ given the operating

environment.

3. Slowing Premium Segment Growth: Growth in the beer market has

maintained a slowing trend (3.00% and -3.00% in 2012 and 2013 vs. 9.00%

10 year average) in recent periods, but we note that the value (affordable)

brands are currently driving the sector’s performance. In contrast to

GUINNESS, NB (key competitor) had since tapped into this segment of the

market, even as other players such as CONSBREW and INTBREW who

already had a solid footing on the segment of the market, continue to raise

the bar further. GUINNESS, on its part, had concentrated on its premium

brands for too long until lately.

4. Slowing Discretionary Spending and GUINNESS’ Pricing Review: The

management of GUINNESS noted that pricing review in December 2013

accounted for its poor half year performance. Realizing the impact of this,

the company had since reverted this decision. However, we wonder why

such a counterproductive decision will be taken at a time when consumer

discretionary spending is slowing in the Country.

NGN52bn CAPEX and a Foray into the Value Segment To gear up the company’s resolve to match the keen competition in the

industry, GUINNESS invested NGN52bn more than 2 years ago to expand its

operations and meet the need of its customers. The beer maker also took a

foray into the value segment of the market, launching a range of new brands

such as DUBIC EXTRA LAGER, SNAPP, ALVARO and the recently introduced

popular ORIJIN brand.

Exhibit2: Product portfolio

Source: Company’s filings

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Although the introduction of ‘Orijin’ into the market appears to be a major

success, given the widespread acceptance that greeted the herbal-mixed

brand, we suspect that the brand may be taking the competition back home, a

sort of market cannibalism (by displacing some of its sister brands like

Smirnoff), as the most recent quarter result remained a decline despite the

hype.

Other strategic initiatives include ‘The made of more’ and ‘Made of Black’

promo targeted at selling the GUINNESS brand. However, keen competition in

the operating environment seem pretty complex as already cited above.

Adetu Bows Out, O’Keeffe Steps In

Following the sustained performance drag as highlighted above, GUINNESS has

announced that Mr. Seni Adetu, the current Managing Director (MD) of the

Company will be stepping down in November 2014, for Mr John O'Keeffe, who

is currently a Non-Executive Director (NED) to take over the leadership position.

According to the company’s website;

‘’Mr John O’Keeffe holds a Bachelor of Commerce degree from the

University College Cork, Ireland specializing in Economics & Marketing. He

joined Diageo Plc. in 1994 and he has held a number of leadership

responsibilities including Brand Manager, Diageo Ireland; New Product

Development Manager, Diageo Ireland; Guinness Brand Manager, Diageo

Ireland (based in Dublin); Marketing & Innovation Manager, Diageo

Jamaica; Marketing Director, Diageo Jamaica/Caribbean; Marketing

Director, Diageo Nordics; Commercial & Innovation Director, Diageo

Nordics; General Manager, Diageo Sweden & Finland; Managing Director

Diageo Russia & CIS markets (based in Moscow) and Managing Director

Diageo Russia & Eastern Europe. Mr O’Keefe is presently the Global

Category Director, Beer and Baileys for Diageo Plc. Mr O’Keeffe was

appointed to the Board as a Non-Executive Director on 9th February 2012’’.

We believe that the company opted for John O’Keeffe based on his wealth of

experience in Russia and Eastern Europe market, where he has led Diageo (the

parent company of GUINNESS) businesses successfully in a more complex and

highly competitive operating environment similar to that of Nigeria at the

moment. Although we imagine that Mr O’Keeffe will be coming with fresh

ideas and strategic initiatives to drive sales volume and attempt to expand

market share for GUINNESS, we do not see this translating into stronger

performance in the near term.

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Guinness Oversea Ltd

46%

Others46%

Atlantaf8%

2.0 Ownership, Plants and Distribution Network

GUINNESS is a subsidiary of the Diageo Group (46% stake), the fourth largest

brewer in Africa and a world leading premium drinks producer with a broad-

based portfolio of spirits, beers and wines. Popular brands include Johnnie

Walker, Crown Royal, J&B, Windsor, Buchanan's and Bushmills whiskies,

Smirnoff, Ciroc and Ketel One vodkas, Baileys, Captain Morgan, Tanqueray and

Guinness. Guinness Nigeria remains Diageo’s largest market for the sale of the

GUINNESS stout brand.

Diageo therefore holds 46% stake in GUINNESS via Guinness Oversea Ltd. Other

major stakeholders include Atlantaf (8%) and the Nigerian public (46%).

In terms of plant distribution, GUINNESS is the second biggest player in Nigeria

by installed capacity- with a total capacity of 5.5mhl, operated via its four

brewing plants, two in Lagos, and one in Benin and Aba each.

Source: Company fillings

Exhibit3: Shareholding Structure Geographical Spread of GUINNESS Brewing

Plants

Brewing Plants

Concentrated in

the South-West

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-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

62.10%

25.30%

7.80%

4.30% 0.50%NB

GUINNESS

CONSBREW

INTBREW

CHAMPION

Source: Company fillings, Meristem research

Exhibit 5: Beer Market share outlook 62%+8%=70% NB’s MARKET SHARE

POST MERGER


3.0 Industry Outlook and Competitive Dynamics

Industry growth outlook

Beer market growth has remained pressured by soft consumer spending,

worsening security challenges and competition from other beverages in the

sector (most especially spirit). Compared to a 10 years average growth of

(9.00%), sector growth slowed to 3% in 2012 and -3% in 2013.

Our X-ray of recent latest corporate releases buttress this further as NB posted a

9months Revenue growth of 2.33% (vs. >5.00% in September 2013), GUINNESS

dipped by 6.36% whilst INTBREW’s most recent filing indicated that sales

volume slowed to 6.36% compared to 3years average growth of 126.25%.

Heineken to Consolidate Operations of NB and CONSBREW

The Nigerian beer market remains dominated by global brewing giants.

Heineken controls the largest share, with interest in three key players (NB,

CONBREW and CHAMPION) in the space.

Exhibit 4: Sector Turnover growth (2002-2013)

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Exhibit 6: Industry Competitive Standing

In a bid to optimise its competitive dominance in Nigeria, the global brewing

giant has already notified the market of its intention to consolidate the

operation of NB and CONSBREW into one. At the completion of this merger, NB

is expected to control a total market share of 70%, whilst exercising dominance

in both the premium and value segment of the market.

Although, GUINNESS is the 2nd largest brewer in Nigeria by installed capacity

(5.5mhl) and revenue (NGN109bn), we believe that the presence of SABMILLER

in Nigeria, the second largest brewer in the world, via the acquisition of

INTBREW (4.30% Market share) and other non-quoted players such as Pabod

breweries, has raised the competitive landscape for GUINNESS in the value

segment.

4.0 Financial Analysis and Projections

Revenue, Cost and Earnings Projections

We reviewed our revenue projection for GUINNESS downward given the

keen competitive operating environment, the overall growth outlook for

the sector and the tempering discretionary spending. As stated above,

although we anticipate that the management of the company under the

new leadership of Mr O’keeffe will roll out strategies to drive volume and

play catch-up with competition, we do not see this impacting top-line

significantly in the near term. Consequent on this, we project the beer

maker to expand turnover marginally by 0.91% by full year.

NB GUINNESS CONSBREW INTBREW CHAMPION

INSTALLED. CAPACITY (mhl) 15.4 5.5 3.7 0.5 0.5

TURNOVER (N’bn) 268.6 109.2 33.9 18.5 2.23

MARKET SHARE 62.10% 25.30% 7.80% 4.30% 0.50%

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-11%

-7%

-3%

1%

5%

9%

100

105

110

115

120

125

2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f

Bill

ion

s

Turnover Growth

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f

Bill

ion

s

Profit after taxation (PAT) Growth


Exhibit 7: Financial Highlights (Top-line and Bottom-line Performance and Expectation)


We expect cost of sales to stay steady at a cost to sales ratio of 52%-53%, given

historical average and barring any major shock on the global price of Barley and

Sorghum in the commodities market. But, we think OPEX margin may be

pressured up, as new management intensifies effort to increase market share

and stay competitive.

Consequent on the above, we imagine that profit may decline further in 2015

but moderate into the medium to longer term. Hence, we forecast 2015FY PAT

to peg at NGN9.012bn representing a growth of -5.86%, compared to

NGN9.57bn in 2014FY.

Valuation

We adopted a blend of dividend discount model (DDM) and price multiples to estimate

the fair price of GUINNESS. Our valuation assumptions are based on our reviewed

turnover growth expectation of 0.91%, 1.50% and 2.50% for 2015FY, 2016FY and 2017FY

as stated above. We also reviewed our dividend payout expectation downward to 50%

as against 5-years historical average of 80%.

Given the above, we downgrade our full year target price (TP) for GUINNESS to

NGN139.66 from previous NGN194.29. Compared to current market price of

NGN160/share, this translates to -12.71% downside potential, hence we rate GUINNESS

a SELL at current price.

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Exhibit 7: Financial Highlights ( Historical + Forecast) 2012 to 2017


Exhibit 8: Financial Highlights ( Historical and Forecast 2012 to 2017f)

Appendices

GUINNESS NIGERIA PLC 2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f

Key Headlines FORECAST HORIZON

Turnover 116,461,882

122,463,538

109,202,120

110,195,859

111,848,797

114,645,017

Gross profit 55,183,201

56,078,434

51,333,214

51,792,054

52,568,935

53,997,803

EBITDA 31,388,469

29,155,359

30,609,393

26,098,553

26,358,850

26,508,165

Operating Profit (EBIT) 21,895,799

20,614,339

16,123,378

16,008,477

16,721,395

17,499,925

Profit before Tax 20,383,158

17,008,875

11,681,560

13,253,580

13,925,175

14,633,800

Profit After Tax 14,214,620

11,863,726

9,573,480

9,012,434

9,469,119

9,950,984

Non-current Asset

77,231,484

88,822,002

91,488,232 96,203,585 91,038,573 91,240,881

Total Asset

106,009,667

121,060,621

132,328,273 129,642,187 127,100,906 127,383,352

Net Asset

38,611,514

46,039,111

45,061,717 49,567,934 54,302,494 58,780,436

Cost to Sales Ratio 52.62% 54.21% 52.99% 53.00% 53.00% 52.90%

Gross Profit Margin 47.38% 45.79% 47.01% 47.00% 47.00% 47.10%

OPEX Margin 29.22% 29.62% 32.92% 33.17% 32.75% 32.56%

ROAE 36.03% 28.03% 21.02% 19.05% 18.23% 17.60%

ROAA 14.34% 10.45% 7.56% 6.88% 7.38% 7.82%

Current Ratio (x) 0.64 0.63 0.92 1.33 1.20 1.45

Quick Ratio (x) 0.53 0.57 0.78 0.96 0.86 1.06

Cash ratio (x) 0.11 0.06 0.14 0.37 0.34 0.39

Inventory turnover (x) 4.00 5.19 4.47 2.88 2.21 2.28

Du-Pont Analysis

ROE 36.81% 25.77% 21.25% 18.18% 17.44% 16.93%

Net Margin 12.21% 9.69% 8.77% 8.18% 8.47% 8.68%

Asset Turnover (x) 1.10 1.01 0.83 0.85 0.88 0.90

Leverage (x) 2.75 2.63 2.94 2.62 2.34 2.17

EBITDA Margin 26.95% 23.81% 28.03% 23.68% 23.57% 23.12%

Operating profit (EBIT) margin 18.80% 16.83% 14.76% 14.53% 14.95% 15.26%

Interest burden 0.93 0.83 0.72 0.83 0.83 0.84

Interest Coverage (X) 46.98 10.46 5.42 3.63 4.84 4.98

Tax burden 0.70 0.70 0.82 0.68 0.68 0.68

Interest coverage 10.46 5.42 3.63 4.84 4.98 5.09

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Analyst’s Certification and Disclaimer This research report has been prepared by the research analyst(s), whose name(s) appear(s) on the cover of this report. Each research analyst hereby certifies, with respect to each security or issuer covers in this research that: (1) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers (the Issuer); and

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Investment Ratings

Fair Value Estimate

We estimate stock’s fair value by computing a weighted average of projected prices derived from discounted cash flow and relative valuation methodologies. The choice of relative valuation methodology (ies) usually depends on the firm’s peculiar business model and what in the opinion of our analyst is considered as a key driver of the stock’s va lue from a firm specific as well as an industry perspective. However, we attach the most weight to discounted cash flow valuation methodology.

Ratings Specification

BUY: Fair value of the stock is above the current market price by at least 20 percent HOLD: Fair value of the stock ranges between -10 percent and 20 percent from the current market price. SELL: Fair value of the stock is more than 10 percent below the current market price.

Definitions

Price Targets: Price targets reflect in part the analyst’s estimates for the company’s earnings. The achievement of any price

target may be impeded by general market and macroeconomic trends, and by other risks related to the company or market,

and may not occur if the company’s earnings fall short of estimates.

Asset allocation: The recommended weighting for equities, cash and fixed income instrument is based on a number of

metrics and does not relate to a particular size change in one variable.

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Movements in Price Target

Company Name: Guinness Nig. Plc.

Date Price (N) Previous Target Price(N)

NewTarget Price (N)

Previous Recommendation

New Recommendation

10/11/14 160.19 194.29 134.66 “HOLD” “SELL”

Company disclosures

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a. The analyst(s) hold(s) personal positions (directly or indirectly) in a class of the common equity securities of the

company.

b. The analyst responsible for this report, as indicated on the front page, is a board member, officer or director of the

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over the past 12 months.

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g. Meristem intends to seek, or anticipates receipt of compensation for investment banking services from the company in

the next 3 months

h. The content of this research report has been communicated with the company, following which this research has been

materially amended before its distribution

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j. The company is a client of the investment banking division of the Meristem group.

k. The company owns more than 5% of the issued share capital of Meristem

l. Meristem has other financial or other material interest in the company.

Company Disclosure

GUINNESS NIG. Plc.

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Conflict of Interest

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