comparative analysis metro/county contexts making connections sites tom kingsley the urban institute...
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Comparative Analysis Metro/County Contexts
MAKING CONNECTIONS SITES
Tom Kingsley
The Urban Institute
March 1, 2007
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Knowledge of context important
In program planning and interpreting results
Examples:
- Setting employment targets in fast growing vs. sluggish or
declining labor markets
- Addressing isolation in metros where segregation is
high vs. low
- Planning homeownership promotion in markets where
prices are high and acceleratIng vs. low and declining
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Compare conditions/trends in the 1990s with those since 2000
Data from many sources:BLS/LAUS; Census/ACS; FBI and CDC; HMDA
Five major topics - Economy and labor market - Demographic change - Income and poverty - Social conditions - Housing and mortgage markets
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Economy and labor marketGrowth slowed since 1990s - San Antonio & Des Moines fastest growth now vs. Oakland & Denver in 1990s- Both periods: Seattle high, Milwaukee & Louisville low
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Demographic ChangeHispanic share growing everywhere - Fastest where most concentrated: San Antonio & Denver
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Income and PovertyDisturbing increase – child poverty - Highest rates: Milwaukee, Providence, San Antonio- Largest increases: Providence, Milwaukee, Louisville, Denver
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Income and PovertyBroad range in segregation by race, income - Milwaukee, Hartford among most segregated metros in U.S. - Seattle, San Antonio, Des Moines below average, 100 metros
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Social ConditionsImprovement teen birth share – all sites - Recent declines same pace as in 1990s- 2001 shares highest in San Antonio, Milwaukee, Denver- Fastest improvement: Louisville, Oakland, Indianapolis, Denver
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Social ConditionsRanking some sites reasonably consistent across categories - Examples; Des Moines, Seattle at high end; Milwaukee, at low end- But some have varied placements: Oakland, Hartford
Child Economic % 25+ yrs Teen preg. Violent
pov.rate segregat. no H.S. rate crime rate
2004 2000 2004 Ave.2000-02 2004
Best DesMoines Seattle Seattle Seattle Providence
Hartford DesMoines DesMoines Oakland Hartford
Seattle SanAntonio Hartford DesMoines Des Moines
Oakland Oakland Oakland Hartford Seattle
Indianap. Indianap. Indianap. Providence Louisville
Louisville Louisville Milwaukee Louisville Milwaukee
Denver Denver Louisville Indianap. San Antonio
SanAntonio Providence Denver Denver Oakland
Providence Hartford SanAntonio Milwaukee Denver
Worst Milwaukee Milwaukee Providence SanAntonio Indianap.
Note: Horizontal line between sites = national average
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Housing and mortgage marketsHomeownership rate up everywhere - Highest levels (above 2/3) in Des Moines, Hartford, Louisville- Fastest increases: Denver, Des Moines, Hartford, Indianapolis
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Housing and mortgage marketsHome purchase affordability under duress - Oakland home value 6.8 times income; San Antonio only 2.2- MC average 2004 ratio 3.7 in 2004, up from 2.8 in 2000
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Homeown. Home value/ Rent >30% % loans
rate income of income subprime
2004 2004 2004 2004
Best DesMoines SanAntonio DesMoines DesMoines
Hartford DesMoines SanAntonio Milwaukee
Louisville Indianap. Hartford Louisville
SanAntonio Louisville Indianap. SanAntonio
Indianap. Milwaukee Seattle Hartford
Seattle Hartford Louisville Indianap.
Denver Providence Providence Seattle
Oakland Denver Milwaukee Denver
Providence Seattle Denver Oakland
Worst Milwaukee Oakland Oakland Providence
Note: Horizontal line between sites = national average
Housing and mortgage marketsAgain some place consistently across categories – others not - Consistent: Des Moines at high end; Oakland at low end