comparative economic systems in the context of northern regional economies. gorm winther professor,...
TRANSCRIPT
Comparative Economic Comparative Economic Systems in the Context of Systems in the Context of
Northern Regional Economies.Northern Regional Economies.
Gorm Winther Professor, Ph.D. Gorm Winther Professor, Ph.D.
The Dept. of Development & Planning Aalborg The Dept. of Development & Planning Aalborg University, DenmarkUniversity, Denmark
Source: Gerard Duhaime and Andrée Caron
How Do we Compare Economies?
• Classifying economies:Classifying economies:- Resource allocationResource allocation- Forms of OwnershipForms of Ownership- Economic PlanningEconomic Planning- Income distributionIncome distribution
• Evaluation criterias (empirical analysis) Evaluation criterias (empirical analysis)
Sources: Sources:
Morris Bernstein: Comparative Economic Systems: Models and Cases)Morris Bernstein: Comparative Economic Systems: Models and Cases)J. Barclay Rosser jr. & Marina V. Rosser: Comparative Economics in a Transforming J. Barclay Rosser jr. & Marina V. Rosser: Comparative Economics in a Transforming World Economy. World Economy.
Ownership:
Social Co-ordination (resource allocation):
Traditional Planning MarketCompacts &Agreements
Non-ownership, simple
ownership of equipment
Subsistence economy,
(Hunting & fishing, non-monetary)
Subsistence Economy
central planning or indicative
planning
Subsistence Economy in
system based on market allocation
Subsistence Economy in
system based on compacts and agreements
State ownershipSubsistence
Economy and an Etatist System
Central planning in an Etatist
systemMarket socialism
‘Bottom up’ planning in a
market socialist economy
Private ownership
Subsistence economy and
Capitalism
Indicative planning in a
capitalist market system.
‘Laissez faire’ Capitalism
Capitalism
Co-operative ownership
Subsistence economy and Cooperative
system
Indicative planning in a
market socialist system.
Cooperatives in a capitalist or
market socialist economy
‘Bottom up’ planning in a self-
managed economy
Types of Ownership in Northern Regional Economies
• Non-ownership or little ownership (traditional).
• Regional corporations (Makkivik Corporation indigenous ownership - peoples capitalism).
• State Ownership (the Government budget or stock ownership).
• Local State ownership.• Traditional Private ownership.• Co-operative societies (multi
purpose or members’ interests.• Joint Ventures – State and
Private.• Employee ownership• Suppliers ownership
Ressource allocation in Northern Economies (Regions in Arcticstat)
• Comprehensive remnants of State ownership in Arkhangelsk, ChukChi, Evenk, Karelia, Kanthy Mansii, Komi, Koryak, Magadan, Murmansk, Nenets, Sakha Taymyr (Dolgan-Nenets), Yamal-Nenets.
• Comprehensive State Ownership and Government in Greenland
• Comprehensive Government in Nunavut.
• Scandinavian Welfare State in North Ostrobothnia, Kainu, Lapland, North and West Bothnia, Nordland, Troms, Finmark and Iceland. Yet Government activities still play a significant role
• Alaska closest to the ideal of market capitalism, yet different from other states in the US
Kollekti-vism %:
Transfers/BNP:
2002 2006 2002
Alaska 0.20 0.18 -
Lapland, Oulu prov.
0.30 - -
Island 0.44 0.42 -
Nunavut 3.46 - 0.72
Grønland 0.81 0.78 0.38
Employment by State and Municipal Ownership - Share of Total Regional Employment 2003
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
Regions
%
Government Employment as a Percentage of Total Employment (2002)
Greenland
Nunavut
Northern Russia
Nordland, Troms & Finmark
Iceland
North and West Bothnia
Lapland, Kainu & North
Ostrobothnia
Alaska
0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7
0,27
0,41
0,39
0,36
0,43
0,42
0,6
0,62
Modified Market Capitalism:AlaskaWelfare Market SystemsLapland, North Ostrobothnia, KainuuNord and VästerbottenIcelandTroms, Nordland, Finmark
Etatism
Former Command Etatist
Northern Russia
Traditional and Transfer Economy Nunavut Modern and Transfer Economy Greenland
GDP per Capita in Northern Economies (PPP $ in 2002)
1111111
Alaska
Lapland, Kainu & North
Ostrobothnia
North and West Bothnia
Iceland
Nordland, Troms & Finmark
Northern Russia
Nunavut
Greenland
46554
24700
22542
30825
21086
17895
7702
19364
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000
Table x: Real Regional GDP Data to Real National Data (2002).Table x: Real Regional GDP Data to Real National Data (2002).______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Per Capita RegionalPer Capita Regional RegionalRegionalGDP/National perGDP/National per GDP perGDP perCapita GDPCapita GDP Employed/Employed/
National National GDP perGDP perEmployed.1Employed.1
Modified Modified Market Capitalism:Market Capitalism:AlaskaAlaska 1,281,28 1,271,27 Social Market CapitalismSocial Market CapitalismLapland, Lapland, North East Bothnia, KainuNorth East Bothnia, Kainu 0,860,86 0,880,88North and West Bothnia2North and West Bothnia2 0,790,79 0,860,86Iceland3Iceland3 n.a.n.a. n.a.n.a.Troms, Nordland, Finmark4Troms, Nordland, Finmark4 0,570,57 0,570,57 EtatismEtatismFormer Central Command:Former Central Command:Northern RussiaNorthern Russia 0,270,27 0,250,25Transfer & traditional:Transfer & traditional:NunavutNunavut 0,400,40 0,370,37Transfer & Modern:Transfer & Modern:Greenland5Greenland5 0,640,64 0,620,62 1. National data obtained from national statistical bureaus, OECD and CIA1. National data obtained from national statistical bureaus, OECD and CIA2. Data on GDP is for 2000.2. Data on GDP is for 2000.3. Iceland is the only independent country of the regions.3. Iceland is the only independent country of the regions.4. Data for the year 20004. Data for the year 20005. Data on Greenland GDP does not include the block grant from the Danish State which is approximately 38% of the GDP in 2002. 5. Data on Greenland GDP does not include the block grant from the Danish State which is approximately 38% of the GDP in 2002. ThusThus the gross national disposable income is much higher. The data for Nunavut does not include transfers which is 72% of GDP.the gross national disposable income is much higher. The data for Nunavut does not include transfers which is 72% of GDP.______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Table x: Real per Capita Average Annual Growth 2002 - 2006.Table x: Real per Capita Average Annual Growth 2002 - 2006.______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Modified Modified Market Capitalism:Market Capitalism:AlaskaAlaska 5,6% 5,6% Social Market CapitalismSocial Market CapitalismLapland, Lapland, North East Bothnia, KainuNorth East Bothnia, Kainu 0,9% 0,9%North and West BothniaNorth and West Bothnia 8,0% 8,0%IcelandIceland 4,0% 4,0%Troms, Nordland, FinmarkTroms, Nordland, Finmark 3,9% 3,9% EtatismEtatismFormer Central Command:Former Central Command:Northern RussiaNorthern Russia 20,3% 20,3%Transfer & traditional:Transfer & traditional:NunavutNunavut 4,3% 4,3%Transfer & Modern:Transfer & Modern:GreenlandGreenland 2,2% 2,2%______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Rate of Investment I/Y (2002)Data not available for Alaska
Alaska
Lapland, Kainu & North Ostrobothnia
North and West Bothnia
Iceland
Nordland, Troms & Finmark
Northern Russia
Nunavut
Greenland
0 0,05 0,1 0,15 0,2 0,25 0,3 0,35
0
0,21
0,21
0,18
0,22
0,22
0,29
0,19
North CenterAlaska 0,89 0,94Lapland, North Ostrobothnia, Kainuu 0,89 0,94Nord and Wästerbotten 0,92 0,95Iceland 0,94 0Troms, Nordland, Finmark 0,92 0,96All Northern regions in Russia 0 0Nunavut (1) 0,79 0,94Greenland 0,79 0,93
1 USA
2Finland3
Sweden4
5 Norway6
Russia7 Canada
8Denmark
0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Gini Coefficients in Northern regional Economies and in their Center Economies
Center Economies
Northern Economies
Center Economies 0,46 0,27 0,25 0 0,26 0,31 0,33 0,25
Northern Economies 0,4 0,27 0 0,24 0 0 0 0,44
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Lapland, Kainu North Ostrobothnia
1 USA
2Finland3
Sweden4
5 Norway6
Russia7 Canada
8Denmark
0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Gini Coefficients in Northern regional Economies and in their Center Economies
Center Economies
Northern Economies
Center Economies 0,46 0,27 0,25 0 0,26 0,31 0,33 0,25
Northern Economies 0,4 0,27 0 0,24 0 0 0 0,44
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Lapland, Kainu North Ostrobothnia
Alaska
Causality: ’Collectivism’ and GDP per capita
(Blue curve Right vertical axis – Red left axis)
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
05000100001500020000250003000035000400004500050000
Governmentemployment/TotalEmployment 2002
GDP per Capita 2002
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
05000100001500020000250003000035000400004500050000
Governmentemployment/TotalEmployment 2002
GDP per Employed 2002
’Collectivism’ to a Crude Productivity Proxy
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1,4
Governmentemployment/TotalEmployment 2002
Regiona GDP per capita toNational GDP per capita2002
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1,4
1,6
Governmentemployment/TotalEmployment 2002
Regiona GDP per Employedto National GDP peremployed 2002
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Governmentemployment/TotalEmployment
Real per Capita GDP Growth2002 - 2006
’Collectivism’ to Annual Average Growth 2002 - 2006
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0
0,02
0,04
0,06
0,08
0,1
0,12
0,14
0,16
0,18
Governmentemployment/TotalEmployment
Unemployment Rates 2002
’Collectivism’ to Unemployment 2002
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
00,10,20,30,40,50,60,70,80,91
Governmentemployment/TotalEmployment
Human Development Index2002
’Collectivism’ to HDI
Gemp/TotempCorrelation -0,840885582OLS Regression-0,411157025 0,411157025T-Distribution 0,695239314Standard Deviation0,246322401Confidenceinterval0,170689326
Necessary sample size for a 95% Confidence Interval is 33
y = -0,4112x + 1,0581
R2 = 0,70710,78
0,8
0,82
0,84
0,86
0,88
0,9
0,92
0,94
0,96
0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7
Serie1
Lineær (Serie1)
y = -2,2469x2 + 1,6671x + 0,6097
R2 = 0,9371
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1
0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7
Serie1
Poly. (Serie1)
Tabel x: Splitting the Sample and Adding Canadian territories. Real GDPReal GDP Real GDP/CapitaReal GDP/Capita
Gov. employment/Gov. employment/ GDP per GDP per GrowthGrowthEmployment TotalEmployment Total EmployedEmployed 2002-062002-06
(PPP US$)(PPP US$) (%) (%)LaplandLapland 0,440,44 61183,061183,0 2,62,6North OstrobothniaNorth Ostrobothnia 0,430,43 60508,860508,8 2,12,1KainuuKainuu 0,430,43 52199,652199,6 2,72,7GreenlandGreenland 0,620,62 37964,637964,6 2,22,2North BothniaNorth Bothnia 0,370,37 59294,059294,0 5,05,0West BothniaWest Bothnia 0,410,41 52991,552991,5 5,25,2NunavutNunavut 0,640,64 65681,565681,5 4,34,3YukonYukon 0,390,39 61026,561026,5 4,94,9NorthwestNorthwest 0,40,400 100666,7100666,7 7,97,9IcelandIceland 0,360,36 56800,356800,3 4,04,0TromsTroms 0,440,44 40785,040785,0 3,43,4NordlandNordland 0,400,40 43821,343821,3 5,65,6FinmarkFinmark 0,470,47 38518,038518,0 5,25,2AlaskaAlaska 0,270,27 97728,797728,7 5,65,6ArkhangelskArkhangelsk 0,490,49 14730,314730,3 16,116,1ChukchiChukchi 0,630,63 33916,833916,8 7,97,9EvenkEvenk 0,700,70 18734,318734,3 8,48,4KareliaKarelia 0,430,43 13012,413012,4 12,112,1Khanty-MansiiKhanty-Mansii 0,290,29 67881,067881,0 25,225,2KomiKomi 0,420,42 20002,920002,9 15,415,4KoryakKoryak 0,550,55 28148,428148,4 3,33,3MagadanMagadan 0,490,49 34604,334604,3 - 4,2- 4,2MurmanskMurmansk 0,480,48 16903,716903,7 16,516,5NenetsNenets 0,430,43 73163,073163,0 27,327,3SakhaSakha 0,530,53 26850,326850,3 7,17,1Taimur (Dolgan-Nenets)Taimur (Dolgan-Nenets) 0,470,47 15596,315596,3 10,410,4Yamal-NenetsYamal-Nenets 0,300,30 85559,085559,0 9,09,0
GDP per Employed to government Employment/Total Employment Ratio (2002)
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8
Government employment/Total employment ratio
Rea
l GD
P p
er e
mp
loye
d (
PP
P
US
$)
Real Annual Average GDP Growth to the Government/Total Employment Ratio
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8
Government employment/Total Employment Ratio
An
nu
al A
vera
ge
Gro
wth
Table: OLS Regressions and Correlations of Performance Variables and the Table: OLS Regressions and Correlations of Performance Variables and the Government Employment to Total Employment Rate.Government Employment to Total Employment Rate.______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________(N=27)(N=27)
RegressionRegression Multiple RMultiple R R2R2CoefficientsCoefficients (correlations)(correlations)
Dependent variables:Dependent variables: Real GDP per Employed*Real GDP per Employed* - 13.0520- 13.0520 - 0,55- 0,55 0,300,30 Real GDP Annual Average Real GDP Annual Average Growth 2002-06Growth 2002-06 - 14,074 - 14,074 - 0,21- 0,21 0.040.04______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________* Statistical discernible beyond the 1% level of a t-test. * Statistical discernible beyond the 1% level of a t-test. The real GDP per employed regression: The real GDP per employed regression: The real GDP regression: The real GDP regression: ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
XY 0520,13416,14 XY 130520106706
Table x: Population and Net Out migration of the Russian NorthTable x: Population and Net Out migration of the Russian North______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Population:Population: Net Out Net Out 2002 2002 20052005 MigrationMigration
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ArkhangelskArkhangelsk 14289441428944 13045431304543 - 124401- 124401ChukchiChukchi 7383073830 5070750707 - 23123- 23123EvenkEvenk 1823918239 1742217422 - 817- 817KareliaKarelia 756406756406 703080703080 - 53326- 53326Khanti-M.Khanti-M. 14237561423756 14690111469011 4525545255KomiKomi 11172121117212 996440996440 - 120772- 120772KoryakKoryak 2854028540 2383923839 - 4701- 4701MurmanskMurmansk 977559977559 872783872783 - 104776- 104776NenetsNenets 4494444944 4195441954 - 2990- 2990TaimurTaimur 4434844348 3937839378 - 4970- 4970Yamal N.Yamal N. 508937508937 523366523366 1442914429MagadanMagadan 229222229222 174685174685 - 54537- 54537SakhaSakha 982910982910 950668950668 - 32242- 32242 TotalTotal 76348477634847 71678767167876 - 466971- 466971______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Methodological Problems• Lurking background variables may be as explanatory (Stock of
resources, geography, real, human and social capital, innovations)?
• ARCTICSTAT not Consistent in the Data Catch both in relation to cross section and time series analysis?
• A Compilation from different sources on national income data – different methods?
• Arbitrariness in Classifications?• Comparability (lack of disaggregated data)?• Problems of Sampling?• The PPP problem (The PPP analysis of Greenland and Denmark
in 1994)? • Productivy measures (Total Factor Productivity, Capital
Productivity)?• Productivity or lack of aggregate demand?• Arbitrariness related to the HDI (The goal posts)?• The subsistence economy?
Thank You