comparison of new load profile models 14-month models vs 21-month models ercot load profiling staff
TRANSCRIPT
Comparison of New Load Profile Models14-Month Models vs 21-Month Models
ERCOT Load Profiling Staff
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Background Information
• ERCOT staff discovered error with LRS analysis– Error was misclassification of some ESIIDs with profile
type migrations occurring since the time of sample selection
– Misclassification resulted in improper sample post-stratification
• Models built from LRS means were incorrect
• LRS analysis was corrected
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Background Information
• New models developed
• Original analysis covered 14 months (Nov ‘04 – Dec ‘05)
• New analysis covered 21 months (Nov ‘04 – July ‘06)
• Intent of this analysis is to examine and quantify the differences between the 14-month and 21-month models
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PROFILE_TYPE COAST EAST FWEST NCENT NORTH SCENT SOUTH WEST
RESLOWR minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor
RESHIWR minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor
BUSHILF some major minor major minor minor some some
BUSLOLF minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor
BUSMEDLF minor minor some major minor minor some minor
BUSNODEM minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor
NEW PROFILE DIFFERENCES - 14 MONTH VS 21 MONTH
Comparison of New Load Profile Models14-Month Models vs 21-Month Models
Migration TypeVoltage Level
Stratum Count Migration TypeVoltage Level
Stratum Count
BUSHI to BUSHI SEC 1 3807BUSMED to BUSHI SEC 5 628BUSLO to BUSHI SEC 9 51BUSNODEM to BUSHI SEC 13 1BUSHI to BUSHI SEC 2 998BUSMED to BUSHI SEC 6 338BUSLO to BUSHI SEC 10 15BUSHI to BUSHI SEC 3 442BUSMED to BUSHI SEC 7 140BUSLO to BUSHI SEC 11 5BUSNODEM to BUSHI SEC 15 2
BUSMED to BUSHI SEC 5 1809 BUSMED to BUSHI SEC 5 1809BUSMED to BUSHI SEC 6 595 BUSMED to BUSHI SEC 6 595BUSMED to BUSHI SEC 7 291 BUSMED to BUSHI SEC 7 291BUSLO to BUSHI SEC 9 169 BUSLO to BUSHI SEC 9 169BUSLO to BUSHI SEC 10 62 BUSLO to BUSHI SEC 10 62BUSLO to BUSHI SEC 11 31 BUSLO to BUSHI SEC 11 31BUSNODEM to BUSHI SEC 13 107 BUSNODEM to BUSHI SEC 13 107BUSNODEM to BUSHI SEC 14 89 BUSNODEM to BUSHI SEC 14 89BUSNODEM to BUSHI SEC 15 246 BUSNODEM to BUSHI SEC 15 246
BUSHI to BUSHI PRI 21 55BUSMED to BUSHI PRI 25 6BUSLO to BUSHI PRI 29 1BUSHI to BUSHI PRI 22 8BUSMED to BUSHI PRI 26 3BUSHI to BUSHI PRI 23 3BUSMED to BUSHI PRI 27 1
BUSMED to BUSHI PRI 25 11 BUSMED to BUSHI PRI 25 11BUSMED to BUSHI PRI 26 1 BUSMED to BUSHI PRI 26 1BUSLO to BUSHI PRI 29 1 BUSLO to BUSHI PRI 29 1BUSLO to BUSHI PRI 30 2 BUSLO to BUSHI PRI 30 2
PRI 21 62
14 Month Model 21 Month Model
BUSHI to BUSHI
BUSHILF_NCENT
BUSHI to BUSHI PRI 22 11
423BUSHI to BUSHI PRI
BUSHI to BUSHI SEC 2 1351
BUSHI to BUSHI SEC 3 589
BUSHI to BUSHI SEC 1 4487
Misclassifications for BUSHILF_NCENT
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Stratum Count Stratum Count1 4487 1 38072 1351 2 9983 589 3 4425 1809 5 24376 595 6 9337 291 7 4319 169 9 220
10 62 10 7711 31 11 3613 107 13 10814 89 14 8915 246 15 24821 62 21 5522 11 22 823 4 23 325 11 25 1726 1 26 427 0 27 129 1 29 230 2 30 2
BUSHILF_NCENT
BUSMED to BUSHI PRI
BUSLO to BUSHI PRI
BUSHI to BUSHI SEC
BUSMED to BUSHI SEC
BUSLO to BUSHI SEC
BUSNODEM to BUSHI SEC
BUSHI to BUSHI PRI
14 Month Model 21 Month ModelMigration Type
Voltage Level
Strata Impacted by Misclassification for BUSHILF_NCENT
PROFILE TYPE PEAK & AVERAGE DAY MINOR DIFFERENCES
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RESLOWR_NCENTMONTHLY PEAK DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD
14 Month Model
21 Month Model
Minor Differences
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RESLOWR_NCENTMONTHLY AVERAGE DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD
14 Month Model
21 Month Model
Minor Differences
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RESHIWR_COASTMONTHLY PEAK DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD
14 Month Model
21 Month Model
Minor Differences
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RESHIWR_COASTMONTHLY AVERAGE DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD
14 Month Model
21 Month Model
Minor Differences
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BUSLOLF_SCENTMONTHLY PEAK DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD
14 Month Model
21 Month Model
Minor Differences
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BUSLOLF_SCENTMONTHLY AVERAGE DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD
14 Month Model
21 Month Model
Minor Differences
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BUSNODEM_NCENTMONTHLY PEAK DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD
14 Month Model
21 Month Model
Minor Differences
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BUSNODEM_NCENTMONTHLY AVERAGE DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD
14 Month Model
21 Month Model
Minor Differences
PROFILE TYPE PEAK & AVERAGE DAY
SOME DIFFERENCES
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BUSMEDLF_FWESTMONTHLY PEAK DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD
Some Differences
14 Month Model
Scaled 14 Month
21 Month Model
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BUSMEDLF_FWESTMONTHLY AVERAGE DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD
Some Differences
14 Month Model
Scaled 14 Month
21 Month Model
Scaled 14 month vs
21 month R2 = 99.4%
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BUSMEDLF_SOUTHMONTHLY PEAK DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD
Some Differences
14 Month Model
Scaled 14 Month
21 Month Model
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BUSMEDLF_SOUTHMONTHLY AVERAGE DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD
Some Differences
14 Month Model
Scaled 14 Month
21 Month Model
Scaled 14 month vs
21 month R2 = 99.4%
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BUSHILF_COASTMONTHLY PEAK DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD
Some Differences
14 Month Model
Scaled 14 Month
21 Month Model
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BUSHILF_COASTMONTHLY AVERAGE DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD
14 Month Model
Scaled 14 Month
21 Month Model
Some Differences
14 Month Model
Scaled 14 Month
21 Month Model
Scaled 14 month vs
21 month R2 = 99.9%
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BUSHILF_SOUTHMONTHLY PEAK DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD
Some Differences
14 Month Model
Scaled 14 Month
21 Month Model
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BUSHILF_SOUTHMONTHLY AVERAGE DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD
Some Differences
14 Month Model
Scaled 14 Month
21 Month Model
Scaled 14 month vs
21 month R2 = 99.9%
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BUSHILF_WESTMONTHLY PEAK DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD
Some Differences
14 Month Model
Scaled 14 Month
21 Month Model
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BUSHILF_WESTMONTHLY AVERAGE DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD
Some Differences
14 Month Model
Scaled 14 Month
21 Month Model
Scaled 14 month vs
21 month R2 = 99.6%
PROFILE TYPE PEAK & AVERAGE DAY MAJOR DIFFERENCES
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BUSMEDLF_NCENTMONTHLY PEAK DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD
Major Differences
14 Month Model
Scaled 14 Month
21 Month Model
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BUSMEDLF_NCENTMONTHLY AVERAGE DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD
Major Differences
14 Month Model
Scaled 14 Month
21 Month Model
Scaled 14 month vs
21 month R2 = 99.7%
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BUSHILF_EASTMONTHLY PEAK DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD
Major Differences
14 Month Model
Scaled 14 Month
21 Month Model
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BUSHILF_EASTMONTHLY AVERAGE DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD
Major Differences
14 Month Model
Scaled 14 Month
21 Month Model
Scaled 14 month vs
21 month R2 = 99.1%
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BUSHILF_NCENTMONTHLY PEAK DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD
Major Differences
14 Month Model
Scaled 14 Month
21 Month Model
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BUSHILF_NCENTMONTHLY AVERAGE DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD
Major Differences
14 Month Model
Scaled 14 Month
21 Month Model
Scaled 14 month vs
21 month R2 = 99.7%
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Findings…..
• 14-month and 21-month models show only minor differences in 40 of the 48 profile type / weather zone combinations
• Of the 8 profile type / weather zone combinations with differences only 3 had major differences
• Scaled 14-month models were virtually identical to the 21-month models… differences were mostly magnitude and not shape related
• Repeating the ERCOT test settlement runs is not likely to result in different findings regarding the Option 3-M transition recommendation