Comparison of Nuclear Power with Other Energy

SourcesMary Quillian

Director, Business and Environmental Policy

Nuclear Energy Institute

mmq@nei.org

202-739-8013

Overview

Different Sources of Energy Brief History of Energy Use

– Energy Consumption Different Types of Electricity Generation

– Operating stats– Environmental stats– Safety stats– Public opinion– Economic stats

Meeting Future Electricity Demand GHG Emissions Getting New Nuclear Plants Built Incentive for New Nuclear in The Energy Policy Act of

2005

Different Sources of Energy

Timeline of Energy Use

Fire for cooking, heat (long, long ago…)

Vertical waterwheel invented (~200 BC)

Windmills invented for pumping water,

grinding grain (500 – 900 AD)

Greeks observe static electricity (?)

Canals diverting water to mills (1300s-1700s)

Electrostatic generators developed (1600s)

Steam engine introduced (1700s)

Timeline of Energy Use

Battery invented (1799)

Electric motor runs small printing press (1834)

Telegraph introduced in U.S. (1844)

Oil discovered in Pennsylvania (1859)

Wood still used as primary fuel in U.S. for heating, cooking, steam engines (1860)

Light bulb invented (1879)

First power plant built providing direct current (DC) electricity (1882)

Coal displaces wood as dominant fuel for steam engines. Mass production of automobiles begins (1890)

Timeline of Energy Use

Hydroelectric plant at Niagra Falls opens

providing alternating current (AC) electricity

(1895)

Coal dominates urban heating. Gas and diesel

are standard auto fuels (1930)

U.S. starts importing a majority of its oil

(1993)

92% of coal used for electricity generation

(2000)Sources: IEEE (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers ) Virtual Museum; the Energy Information Administration Kid’s Page, http://www.eia.doe.gov/kids/history/timelines/index.html;“History of Energy,” James C. Williams, Franklin Institute, http://fi.edu/case_files/energy.html .

Total U.S. Energy Consumption by Sector

Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2001http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/eh/frame.html

Petroleum Consumption

Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2001http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/eh/frame.html

Coal Consumption

Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2001http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/eh/frame.html

Electric Utility Retail Sales

Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2001http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/eh/frame.html

Capacity Brought Online by Fuel Type 1950-2005 (Nameplate Capacity, MW)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Water

Renew

Oil

Other

Nuclear

Gas

Coal

Source: Global Energy Decisions

Updated: 3/06

Recent years have seen an explosion in new gas fired generation, but little building in other fuels.

U.S. Energy Consumption

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2007, Energy Information Administration

Electric Generation

Rotation can come from:• Falling water• Wind• Hot gases

Condenser

Cooling Source

Circulating Pump

Heat Source

Turbine Generator

Circulating Pump

Steam Electric StationHeat Source:• wood• coal• natural gas• oil• fission

Load Curve

12 AM 4 AM 9 AM 2 PM 7 PM 12 AM 4 AM

ele

ctr

ic d

em

an

d

Dispatch Curve

Fuel Type Average Capacity Factors (%)

Nuclear 89.9

Coal (Steam Turbine) 71.1

Gas (Combined Cycle) 39.9

Gas (Steam Turbine) 17.2

Oil (Steam Turbine) 14.9

Hydro 31.8

Wind 30.3

Solar 18.8

U.S. Capacity Factors by Fuel Type2006*

*Preliminary

Source: Global Energy Decisions / Energy Information Administration

Coal49.0%

Renewable and Other

3.1%

Hydro6.9%

Nuclear19.4%

Oil1.6%

Gas19.9%

U.S. Electricity Generation Fuel Shares 2006*

* Preliminary

Source: Global Energy Decisions / Energy Information Administration

Updated: 4/07

Land RequirementsTechnology Total Acres/GW Capacity Factor % Acres/ GWh

Hydro 1,000,000 30 3,333,000

Biomass (direct fire) 1,205,600 80 1,507,000

Wind 60,000 30 200,000

Solar – PV (flat plate) 12,360 20 61,900

Coal 23,700 70 33,900

Solar – Thermal (parabolic trough) 5,440 34 16,000

Geothermal 8,500 90 9,400

Natural Gas 3,710 40 9,300

Oil 1,720 30 5,700

Nuclear 3,000 90 3,300

Sources: “Renewable Energy Technology Characterizations,” DOE’s Office of Utility Technologies, Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, and EPRI, 1997; “Generic Environmental Impact Statement for License Renewal of Nuclear Plants,” NRC, 1996; “The Most Frequently Asked Questions About Wind Energy,” American Wind Energy Association, 2002; “PV FAQ’s,” DOE, Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, 2004; Capacity factors from Global Decisions/Energy Information Administration.

Water ConsumptionTechnology Cooling Type Gallons/MWh

Steam - coal, oil, natural gas, biomass Once through 300

Steam - coal, oil, natural gas, biomass Cooling tower 480

Nuclear Once through 400

Nuclear Cooling tower 720

Combined cycle - natural gas, oil Cooling tower 180

Combined cycle - natural gas, oil Dry Cooling 0

Hydropower na 1,430

Wind na 1

Solar - PV na 30

Solar - Thermal na 1,060

Geothermal (vapor) Once through 3,430

Sources: “Water & Sustainability (Volume 3),” Electric Power Research Institute, March 2002; “The Most Frequently Asked Questions About Wind Energy,” American Wind Energy Association, 2002; “Water and Energy,” Peter H. Gleick, 1994.

Radiation In Perspective

We receive 40 millirem from a medical X-ray 5 millirem from a round-trip, coast-to-coast airplane flight 1-2 millirem from watching television 7 millirem from living in a stone, brick, or concrete building 0.1 millirem from a computer terminal 0.06 millirem from a luminous wrist watch 0.008 millirem from a smoke detector 0.03 millirem from living within 50 miles of a coal-fired power

plant and .009 millirem from living within 50 miles of a nuclear power

plant.

To put this in perspective, you would have to live near a nuclear power plant for over 2,000 years to get the same amount of radiation exposure you get from a single diagnostic medical X-ray.

Lifecycle GHG Emissions(grams CO2e/kWh)

Source A Source B Source C Source D Source E

Coal 755-1309 na 944 790-1182 949-1280

Oil 546-902 na 794 na 519-1190

Gas 389-689 na 564 389-511 485-991

Solar – PV 30-280 100-200 35 13-731 79

Biomass 31-61 na 42 15-101 92-156

Hydro 4-237 16 16 2-48 3-27

Wind 9-48 15 13 7-124 14-21

Nuclear 9-21 9 15 2-59 8-11

Geotherm

al

na na 14 na na

Lifecycle Emissions Sources

Source A- “Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Electricity Generation Chains,

Assessing the Difference,” International Atomic Energy Agency, 2000.

Source B – “Full-energy-chain Greenhouse-gas Emissions: A Comparison

between Nuclear Power, Hydropower, Solar Power and Wind Power,” Int.

J. Risk Assessment and Management, Vol. 3, No. 1, pp.59-74, 2002.

Source C – “Life-Cycle Assessment of Electricity Generation Systems

and Applications for Climate Change Policy Analysis,” Paul J. Meier,

University of Wisconsin, Madison, August 2002.

Source D – “Hydropower – Internalised Costs and Externalised Benefits,”

Frans H. Koch, International Energy Agency-Implementing Agreement

for Hydropower Technologies and Programmes, Ottawa, Canada, 2000.

Source E – “Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Energy Systems:

Comparison and Overview,” R. Dones, T. Heck, S. Hirschberg, PSI

Annual Report 2003, Annex IV.

U.S. Industrial Safety Accident Rate2006

0.12

2.00

3.50

Nuclear Power Plants Electric Utilities Manufacturing

Sources: Nuclear (World Association of Nuclear Operators), Electric Utilities and Manufacturing (2005, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics).

Updated: 4/07

ISAR = Number of accidents resulting in lost work, restricted work, or fatalities per 200,000 worker hours. Electric utilities and manufacturing do not include fatality data.

April Public Opinion Survey

1,000 U.S. adults

Surveyed March 30-April 1, 2007

Telephone interviews

Margin of error plus or minus three

percentage points

Done for NEI by Bisconti Research, Inc

Opinion about Global Climate Change %

9

23

26

41

0 25 50

It is not a problem and does not

require any action

More research is needed before

action is taken

It could be a serious problem, and

we should take some action now

It is a serious problem, and

immediate action is necessary

Perceptions of Electricity Sources Used Most Today (Multiple Choices) %

6

8

10

16

22

31

32

0 10 20 30 40

Wind energy

Solar energy

Nuclear energy

Hydropower

Oil

Coal

Natural gas

Expectations for Sources of Electricity Used Most 15 Years from Now (Multiple Choices)

%

10

14

14

16

19

24

27

0 10 20 30 40

Oil

Hydropower

Coal

Natural gas

Wind energy

Nuclear energy

Solar energy

63% Favor Use of Nuclear Energy

(Annual Averages)

49

46

31

63

Apr-2007

Oppose

Favor

20

40

60

80

1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 20061983

Five Steps of Support for New Plants:Down but Still High %

Important

for our energy

future

80%

Prepare to build

71%

Definitely build

56%

Accept new

reactors at nearest

plant

66%

Renew licenses

81%

Acceptability of New Reactor

At Nearest Nuclear Power Plant Site: Down but Still High %

5

29

66

0 25 50 75

Don't know

Not acceptable

Acceptable

Other Polls

LA Times/Bloomberg, Aug 2006: 61% Americans polled said they support the increased use o nuclear poer as a way to contain projected global warming, 30% oppose

BBC World, June 2006: 63% of Americans favor building new nuclear plants to reduce reliance on oil and coal

Gallup, March 2006: 56% of Americans support the use of nuclear energy as one of the ways to provide electricity, 38% oppose

Cost ComparisonEnergy Technology Investment O&M Fuel Total

Geothermal NA NA NA 41.5

Biomass - landfill gas and waste 21.1 - 142.4 12.8 - 25.7 (-109.8) – 0.0 20.6 - 52.3

Natural Gas 5.8 - 26.4 0.7 - 8.4 28.0 - 44.9 40.9 - 63.8

Nuclear 18.3 - 42.4 6.1 - 14.5 2.8 - 11.8 30.3 - 68.6

Coal 12.7 - 40.7 1.4 - 14.9 1.0 - 34.6 25.9 - 69.1

Oil NA NA NA 92

Biomass - combustible 27.7 - 34.3 9.6 - 13.4 12.9 - 52.8 50.3 - 100.5

Wind 38.1 - 128.8 4.9 - 35.8 0 46.1 - 144.2

Hydro 56.6 - 210.3 1.6 - 31.6 0 63.5 - 241.9

Solar 204.4 - 1,738.7 0.0 - 137.7 0 209.1 - 1,876.4

Source: International Energy Agency and Nuclear Energy Agency, “Projected Costs of Generating Electricity 2005 Update”, OECD 2005. Data from 21 OECD countries. Assumes a 10% discount rate.

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Nuclear 1.72Coal 2.21Gas 7.51Oil 8.09

2005

U.S. Electricity Production Costs 1995-2005 (Averages in 2005 cents per kilowatt-hour)

Production Costs = Operations and Maintenance Costs + Fuel CostsSource: Global Energy Decisions/Energy Information AdministrationUpdated: 6/06

Annual Fuel Costs to U.S. Electric Utilities

1995-2005 (In 2005 cents per kilowatt-hour)

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Nuclear 0.45

Coal 1.72

Gas 7.05

Oil 7.36

Source: Global Energy Decisions/Energy Information AdministrationUpdated: 6/06

O&M22%

O&M74%

Fuel78% Fuel

94%

Fuel26%

6%

Coal Gas Nuclear Nuclear Fuel CostComponents

Fuel as a Percentage of Electric Power Production Costs

2005

Source: Global Energy Decisions/Energy Energy Administration

ConversionFabrication

Waste Fund

Enrichment

Uranium

Electricity Generation

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2007, Energy Information Administration

CO2 Emissions from Electric Generation

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

mill

ion

me

tric

to

ns

CO

2

Total

Natural Gas Oil

Coal

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2007, Energy Information Administration

CO2 Emissions by Sector

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

mill

ion

me

tric

to

ns

CO

2

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2007, Energy Information Administration

Electric Power

Transportation

Industrial

Residential

Commercial

CO2 Emissions

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2007, Energy Information Administration

Capacity Additions

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2007, Energy Information Administration

Renewable Energy Additions

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2007, Energy Information Administration

Coal57.4% Renewable

and Other3.7%

Hydro5.3%

Nuclear15.5%

Oil1.8% Gas

16.2%

U.S. Electricity Generation Fuel Shares 2030

* Preliminary

Source: Global Energy Decisions / Energy Information Administration

Updated: 4/07

Coal49.0%

Renewable and Other

3.1%

Hydro6.9%

Nuclear19.4%

Oil1.6%

Gas19.9%

U.S. Electricity Generation Fuel Shares 2006*

* Preliminary

Source: Global Energy Decisions / Energy Information Administration

Updated: 4/07

Growing Need for Additional Baseload Capacity (2006)

Electricity demand in 2030 will be 45%

greater

than today

To maintain current electric fuel supply mix

would mean building:Nuclear reactors (1,000 MW)

Renewables (100 MW)

Natural gas plants (400 MW)

Coal-fired plants (600 MW)

50

93

279

261

Source: 2006 Annual Energy Outlook, Energy Information Administration

New Nuclear Plants Under Consideration

Company Location (Existing Plant) Units

Dominion Louisa County, VA (North Anna) 1

NuStart Energy (TVA) Jackson County, AL (Bellefonte) 2

NuStart Energy (Entergy) Claiborne County, MS (Grand Gulf) 1

Entergy West Felciana Parish, LA (River Bend) 1

Southern Co. Burke County, GA (Vogtle) 1-2

Progress Energy Wake County, NC (Harris) & Levy County, FL 2-4

South Carolina Electric & Gas Fairfield County, SC (V.C. Summer) 1-2

Duke Energy Cherokee County, SC (Lee) 2

UniStar Nuclear Calvert County, MD (Calvert Cliffs) 1-5

Florida Power and Light TBD in FL 1

NRG/STPNOC Matagorda County, TX (South Texas Project) 2

Amarillo Power Carson County, TX 2

TXU TBD in TX 2-5

Exelon TBD in TX 2

Alternate Energy Holdings Owyhee County, ID TBD

DTE Energy Monroe County, MI (Fermi) 1

PPL Corporation Luzerne County, PA (Susquehanna) 1

Roadmap to Commercial Operation

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Building a new nuclear plant is not a one-step process or decision: It is a sequence of 3 successive decisions

Years (estimates)

1

2

3

First Decision: To file an application for a COL

Second Decision: Long-lead procurement of major components and commodities

Third Decision: Proceed with construction

Energy Policy Act of 2005:Production Tax Credit

$18/MWh for first 6,000 MW of new nuclear capacity

Distributed on a pro rata basis to all plants that:

– Submit a COL application to the NRC by Dec. 31, 2008

– Begin construction by Jan. 1, 2014

– Start commercial operation by Jan. 1, 2021

Production tax credit

– Enhances financial attractiveness of project after it is

built and in commercial operation

– Does not address financing challenges before and during construction

Energy Policy Act of 2005:Standby Support

Federal insurance coverage for delays caused by licensing or litigation

Covers debt service only Limitations on coverage reduce value

– First two $500-million policies: 100% of delay costs, no waiting period for claims

– Second four $250-million policies: only 50% of delay costs after 6-month delay

Energy Policy Act of 2005: Loan Guarantee Program

2005 Energy Policy Act authorizes loan

guarantees

up to 80 percent of project cost

Should allow nuclear plant developers to

– Increase leverage

– Reduce financing costs

– Reduce cost of electricity from project

– Non-recourse to project sponsor’s balance sheet

Final regulations late 2007

State Policies Supporting Nuclear Construction

Legislation in place that helps secure financing

Regulation in place that helps secure financing

Legislation under consideration that helps secure financing

Legislation and regulation in place that help secure financing