comparison of simple and advanced regional models in industrial regulation bernard fisher
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Comparison of simple and advanced regional models in industrial regulation Bernard Fisher Risk Forecasting and Decision Science Environment Agency Examples of ozone prediction methods: when to apply?. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Comparison of simple and advanced regional models in industrial regulation
Bernard Fisher
Risk Forecasting and Decision Science
Environment Agency
Examples of ozone prediction methods:
when to apply?
Difference field showing industrial plume contribution to daily maximum 1-hr O3 concentration for 24-27 June 2001
Horizontal particle distribution 43 hours after the SO2 release simulated by the model HYSPLIT (left) and FLEXPART (right). The colour code gives the heights of the particles in metres
Spectrum of Models Part 1
Example of ozone generation for industrial plumes
Complex NAME
Simple enclosing curves
Ozone formed in NOx plume (1500 mid afternoon)
Background: 20 ppb O3 and 50 ppb VOC
O3 maximum reached 106 ppb in domain.
constant wind direction and speed
travel timein hourspoint source
Scatter plot of hourly NO2 vs hourly NOx. hourly values with selected point sources. The background [O3] used for the enclosing curves was based on model results with all point sources removed.
NAME III enclosing curves, Models-3 and empirical curve comparisons
Spectrum of Models Part 2
Regional ozone
Complex CMAQ EMEP Eulerian
IDOP EMEP Lagrangian
Ozone from: A - Didcot A power station and B - Kingsnorth power station. Ozone creation downwind of A during daytime, while ozone depletion is dominant downwind of B. The background concentration of VOCs downwind of A is much higher than that downwind of source B.
The 24-h averaged O3 excess (left) and the daily maximum 1-hr ozone excess (right) on every simulation day for the June 2001 episode. The black dot is the location of the VOC source for IDOP comparison
Application of the Integrated Downwind Ozone Production approach to the assessment of the environmental impact of four processes operating at a large industrial complex. Emissions quoted are illustrative only
VOC species Emission IDOP Excess tonne hr-1 ppb per ozone ppb
tonne/ hr
Oil refining
acetylene 0.1 0.09 0.01benzene 0.1 0.27 0.03toluene 0.1 4.10 0.41
Total 0.3 0.45
EMEP Lagrangian model
The unit is 10ppb.h per 40% emission reduction
dAOT40c/dENOx
dAOT40c/dEVOC
EMEP Eulerian model country source-receptor relationships for 2003 meteorology and 2003 emissions are given. The changes in UK ozone for changes in UK emissions on UK ozone are:
ozone AOT40f at 3m-377 ppb.h per 15% emission reduction for NOx351 ppb.h per 15% emission reduction for VOC
SOMO35-103 ppb.d per 15% emission reduction for NOx55 ppb.d per 15% emission reduction for VOC
Spectrum of Models
Industrial plumes
Complex NAME
Simple enclosing curves
Regional ozone
Complex CMAQ EMEP Eulerian
OSPM EMEP Lagrangian
PTM
Simple IDOP RAINS
urban deficits ?????