competence foresight 2030: russian experience
DESCRIPTION
Details of our 2012-13 project bridging technology foresight and skills anticipation methodology to understand future competence needs of Russian economyTRANSCRIPT
Future competence demand anticipation in growing industries: Competence
Foresight 2030Dr. Pavel LukshaSKOLKOVO Education Development Center
Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO
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Developing tools for competence demand
anticipation: Skills Foresight 2030 and its
applications
Competence Foresight 2030
UACTransport Universities
Tools for focused competence demand anticipation & TVET policy revision in a specific growing industries (aircraft production and transportation & logistics industry)
Tools for competence demand anticipation through technological foresight lenses for new & growing industries
ILO project with SKOLKOVO
Developing & piloting tools for competence demand technological foresight
3Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO
Context for Competence Foresight 2030
1. Mismatch in labor market:• in formal sector, only 43% find jobs in accordance with their qualification• in informal sector, only 24% find jobs according to their qualification
2. Closing the productivity gap• current labor productivity is 32% of the US labor productivity• key government target: to increase no. of high-productivity jobs (30,000
USD/year) from 12 Mil in 2012 to 33 Mil in 2020• additional target: productivity growth going faster than wage growth
(currently, we are the only large emerging economy which has disadvantage to OECD countries in productivity adjusted for wage – and the gap is expected to grow)
4Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO
Competence Foresight 2030 key
stakeholders
Competence Foresight 2030
Strategic Initiatives Agency for the President of Russian Federation
Ministry of Science & Education of Russian Federation
Context: Development of the roadmap for the National System of Qualifications & Competencies
Context: Third National Foresight of Science & Technology
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CF2030 context:
changing policy industrial agenda
Competence Foresight 2030: defining need for changes in curriculum & formats of TVET & HE for
growing tech-driven sectors
Changes in technologies, business processes &
managerial pratices due to technological progress and
social innovations
Growing pressure of global competition for markets and
talents
Increasing gap between Russian TVET & HE system and best international practices
Efforts of the government to kick-start the knowledge-intense economic sectors
6Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO
Key issue: shortened
technology lifecycle in growing industries
New task emerges
New task is recognized & demand for new skill is formed
New training programs developed
Training is conductedfor new skills
Typical technology lifecycle in ‘old’ industries with low rate of technological change
…
…
‘Area of attention’ for skills foresght
Typical technology lifecycle in ‘new’ industries with high rate of technological change
7Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO
CF2030 methodology (1)
Preliminary sector analysis, hypotheses regarding drivers of change
Formation of expert groups (employers, research sector, universities, professional associations,regulators, advisors)
Revision of results and preparation of reports
Report verification with additional expert pool
FORESIGHT SESSION
Final reports
Literature review Expert interviews
Rapid Foresight + Expert panels & Deep dives
Expert panels + SimulationsPolling
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SF2030 methodology (2)
Key trends that drive change in the sector
New ‘hard’ technologies
New ‘soft’ technologies (work organization, e.g. managerial innovations, new org. formats etc.)
New market opportunities (new
products & services)
New market threats (inc. competitive
technologies)
Change of working task structure
Tasks that can be resolved with existing skills & knowledge
Tasks that require new skills & knowledge (hence demand for
new competences)
Tasks that no longer need to be resolved
Key results of Skills 2030 Foresight
9Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO
SF2030 key elements
Foresight of future industrial structure
Identification of key new & growing industries and global economy challenges. Meta-analysis of 30+ key foresights & forecasts by leading national foresight groups (+ over 50 international foresights)
Competence Foresight in key sectors
Foresight of competence demand for 19 growing & new sectors, including aerospace, energy generation, smart grids, nanotechnology, biotechnology, ICT, smart transportation, preventive & personalized medicine etc. Policy recommendations for HE&TVET system.Total ca. 500 experts in ca. 20 sessions + 1500 in polling
Dissemination of methodology
Dissemination of resultsReports for the Ministry of Education & Science and Strategic Initiatives Agency (Spring 2013) + public presentationsGeneral public report for professional orientation in collaboration with leading media agency (Summer-Fall 2013).Methodology (foresight & IT solution?)
10Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO
Three levels of
competence description
Global challengesGeneral competences required: e.g. teamwork, communication skills, understanding of economic principles etc.Also: meta-competencesThese skills / competences to be delivered through the majority of TVET programs
Cross-sectoral challengesKey competences required to launch & support growth in new & existing sectors (in the view of thechnological development): ‘integrators’, ‘translators’, ‘adaptators’
Industry-specific challenges
Key competences to support practice transformation (new technological & managerial approaches), e.g. energy audit or smart grid architecture design in energy distribution sector
11Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO
Industry-level results
‘Job of the future’ profiles
120 ‘job of the future’ profiles (bundles of key competences) in 19 industries
HE & TVET curriculumNew competences translated into recommended curriculum changes. E.g. for HE in medicine of the future, we defined four tracks with basic training in medicine & biology, math & ICT, physics & chemistry, and economics, with further medical specializationHowever: recommended, not implemented
Communication with general public
Industry level results converted into a career-recommendation tool: Map of 100 Jobs of The Future and List of 30 Dying Jobs (to be published in leading Russian media with the support of the Agency of Strategic Initiatives since July 2013)
12Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO
Cross-sectoral specialists
in growing industries
Key working tasks for knowledge-intense economic sectors
2012-15 2015-20 2020-30
Key competencies
Integrated organization of R&D and production process for knowledge-intensive products
Working with markets to improve existing products (evolutionary innovations)
Creation & implementation of families of new products & solutions (disruptive innovations)
IntegratorsTranslatorsSpecialists to support industrial rennovation process
AdaptatorsStandardizers
System architects, technologists and safety experts
Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO
Demand for new skills: is anybody out
there?
Mature product industries
2012-2020 2020-2030
Machinery building, energy, transport, …
Young product industries
State-dependent industries
‘New’ energy, biotech & biomed, ‘new’ ICT
Lack of resources to support the skills demand for fast growing industry
Specialists to implement existing plans (continuation of the present)
Not ready to revise their product & maekrting models
Space, defense, rail transport
Skills demand not supported by TVET that does not recognize emerging industries
Skills demand largely covered by existing (Soviet) TVET system
Skills demand is subject to government strategic decisions
hostages of existing industrial models
hostages of weak industrial positions
hostages of government procurement
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Substantial share of new competencies in technology-driven sectors are cross-professional competencies or meta-competencies that go beyond the demand for competencies in specific sectors. Multidisciplinarity is among the key competitive advantages of the ‘worker of the future’.
For knowledge-based sectors, ‘ecosystemic’ approach is most productive: creation / preparation of teams with inter-dependent competencies that allow to invent, design, market, produce and support new products.
Future-oriented approach to skills & knowledge demand is necessary for the development of new industries. However, only a highly limited share of employers is ready to discuss their future needs. The key problem here is that most industries are lacking ‘translators’ that could help connect strategic planning, technological development and human resource preparation in the industry domain.
Our key findings
Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO
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Paradoxically, if we want our results to be implemented, we must get involved in the implementation (i.e. share responsibility with foresight users)
Case 1: UAC leading aircraft production company (ca. 70% of Russian production) with ambitious
development plans skills anticipation for new investment plans & R&D up to 2020 verification through comparison with industry leaders (Boeing & EADS) translated into existing TVET institutions & newly designed
Case 2: Ministry of Transportation skills anticipation to support industry strategy up to 2030 translated into existing & newly designed TVET institutions
Case 3: Roadmap of a new industry (children goods & services) skills anticipation as a part of the roadmap (and condition for successful launch) user skills are critical!
‘Grounding’ of
Competence Foresight 2030
Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO
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Future development of tools
In Russian context
Focused studies and TVET policies recommendations for several industries, including:• transportation (five
segments: automotive, naval, aero, rail, city)
• goods & services for children
• nanotechnology
In international context
ILO project with SKOLKOVO:• international workshop
for methodology revision & development (July 2013)
• pilot projects in target countries (TBD)